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EUR/USD halts surge amid US inflation data EUR/USD halts surge amid US inflation data In first half of the previous trading session the Euro continued to rapidly advance against the Dollar and practically reached the 1.1850 mark. However, the subsequent release of the American inflation and retail sales data that matched with analysts’ expectations returned the pair back to the 55-hour SMA near the 1.1780 level. As this moving average is additionally backed up by a combination of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly R2, there is a little chance that the pair will manage to break to the bottom without proper impulse. The same applies for opposite direction, which is secured by the 50% retracement level and the monthly R1. So, this trading session the pair is likely to spend moving horizontally between these barriers unless the US manufacturing and jobs data will cause some notable price movements.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1660EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1660 Despite a positive perception of ideas expressed by the US President Donald Trump at the ASEAN summit the Dollar is continuing to lose value against the Euro in a one-week long ascending channel. Although the pattern is supported by the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, the upcoming rebound from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1679 is likely to lead to breakout to the south. This assumption is additionally backed up by the average market sentiment, which is 63% bearish. Moreover, there is a need to take into account that today there are scheduled no fundamental events that might give the pair an impulse strong enough to bypass the above resistance, which has been managing to turnaround the rate for the last two weeks.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD trades near 1.16 amid Chinese data releaseEUR/USD trades near 1.16 amid Chinese data release In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate continued to move in southern direction under pressure from the 55-hour SMA. A short dip below the weekly S1 located at the 1.1573 level as well as the subsequent recovery signified two confirmation points, thus confirming existence of a fully-fledged junior descending channel. As the upper-trend line of the pattern is additionally protected by the slipping 100- and 200-hour SMAs, the pair is not expected to make a sudden breakout to the north. Accordingly, today the exchange rate is expected to test an area near the 1.1555 mark, which might represent a notable support barrier. The average market sentiment, which remains 58% bearish, confirms this general direction. However, the above assumption might be altered due to beginning of Trump visit to China.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD falls to 1.16 amid surprising US data EUR/USD falls to 1.16 amid surprising US data A release of better that expected data on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI led to sharp appreciation of the buck against the common European currency and resulted in a breakout from two junior ascending channels. An active recovery of the exchange rate seems unlikely, as the northern is contains a bunch of technical indicators, such as the weekly PP at 1.1631 and the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Moreover, there is a slope on a daily chart that is likely to serve as an additional barrier. For this reason, the pair is expected to gradually slip to the bottom towards support area near the 1.1580 mark. However, for now the rate is squeezed between two vises at 1.1625 and 1.1600 and might continue this horizontal movement until catching a proper momentum.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1614EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1614 In result of the previous trading session, the currency exchange rate slipped through the updated 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1679 and, in essence, made a rebound from the bottom trend-line of a dominant descending channel. Due to absence of any fundamental data releases, bulls are likely to try to return the rate back to 1.1643, at minimum. However, the further recovery of the Euro seems unlikely because of a combined resistance formed by the monthly S1 at 1.1658, the weekly PP at 1.1674 and the falling 55-hour SMA. The southern side, in contrast, remains barrier-free. In addition to that, there is couple of fundamental factors that incite further appreciation of the Dollar, such as Donald Trump’s tax reform and possible nomination of John Taylor, as the Fed chair.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
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EUR/USD anticipates ECB meetingMorning outlook - EUR/USD anticipates ECB meeting Despite a release of better than expected US purchase orders data the currency rate did not manage to bypass the 55-hour SMA and soared in the opposite direction. The main drivers that pushed and are continuing to push the pair to the top are expectations on the upcoming ECB meeting. On the one hand, the currency rate faces two notable resistance levels near 1.1835 and 1.1850. The first one represents an upper trend-line of an alleged descending triangle, while the second one represents an upper boundary of a large descending channel. However, if the central bankers’ meeting produces a decision about cutback of the quantitative easing program the Euro might easily break through these barriers and reach the 1.1900 mark.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD trades near 1.1760Morning outlook - EUR/USD trades near 1.1760 Due to anticipation of the ECB meeting as well as referendum on extension of autonomy in Lombardy and Veneto regions the common European currency slipped against the Dollar to the 1.7520 mark. As the northern side is protected by a combination of the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP plus the 55- and 200-hour SMAs, the pair is expected to continue to move to the bottom towards the bottom boundary of an alleged three-week long ascending channel that is located a little bit above the updated weekly PP at 1.1722. The general strengthening of the Greenback is also supported by the average market sentiment, which is 59% bearish. As there are no data releases planned for today, the pair should not make any unexpected and sharp moves.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD breaks through 200-hour SMAMorning outlook - EUR/USD breaks through 200-hour SMA In accordance with expectations, the Dollar continued to gain value against the common European currency, experiencing pressure from the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP. Despite the fact that the pair failed to pass through the weekly S1 at 1.1735 from the first attempt, it is still expected to move in the southern direction, trying to reach the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715. This scenario is supported not only by the average market sentiment, which remains 57% bearish, but also by an aggregate of technical indicators, which sends strong sell signal for this trading session. The only event than might add some volatility in the markets and lead to short-term recovery of the Euro are opening remarks that will be delivered by Mr. Draghi at the ECB conference.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD starts trading near weekly PP at 1.1810Morning outlook - EUR/USD starts trading near weekly PP at 1.1810 In line with expectations, the currency pair continued to move horizontally in anticipation of release of information about the US CPI. Although the data appeared to be worse than expected, the rate failed to surge above the monthly PP at 1.1875. As a result, new trading week it started at the updated weekly PP at 1.1810, being squeezed between the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the top and the 200-hour SMA from the bottom. This fact suggests that despite that the average market sentiment is predominantly bearish, the pair is likely to fail to pass through the 1.1783 mark in one go. However, since the pair has recently made a breakout from the rising wedge, in general, it is expected to stick with the southern direction.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD BUY STOP - 16/10/2017 The Euro tested the local maximum and after a creation of the new resistance 1.1870 the price fell down quite sharp. But even despite such a fall, we should note that the growth of the price was on large volume, while the correction of the pair down was on small one. Besides it, the price came out form the consolidation earlier last week, which is a good bullish momentum. That’s why it is worth considering the scenario of the breakout of the resistance and opening long positions.The breakout move should be abrupt and supported by large volume in order to avoid fake breakout and to get an accurate entry point. A stop loss should be placed below the breakout volume bar. A potential of the deal is up to 110 points. The bottom line: long positions after a sure breakout of the resistance
Long
by trustbrokergroup
EUR/USD breaks upwardsMorning outlook - EUR/USD breaks upwards In result of a decrease of the American unemployment rate, traders tried to push the pair through the bottom trend-line of a large falling wedge pattern. However, it made a rebound and in the early Monday morning left the formation in the northern direction. The surge was not sharp, as the pair still needs to cross a combination of the upper edge of a junior descending channel and the 200-hour SMA. In addition to that, it stuck near the updated weekly PP at 1.1740 that is backed up by the 100-hour SMA. These obstacles as well as the Friday’s jump by 34 basis points just in hour suggest that the rate is likely to retreat for some time. An aggregate of technical indicators support this scenario. In addition to that, market sentiment remains 57% bearish.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAsMorning outlook - EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAs In general, the pair continued to move horizontally between the 200-day SMA and the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, as expected. Unfortunately, none of the yesterday’s events caused any significant volatility in the markets. From technical perspective, it seems that movement of the pair was mainly constrained by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that helped to form a minor ascending channel, which is lying perpendicularly to larger descending channel. In the first half of the day, the rate is expected to try to break through the upper trend line of the above pattern, which is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. If a rebound from the retracement level meant the beginning of a new medium-term uptrend, then the pair should eventually bypass this resistance. Otherwise, a rebound is going to follow, in accordance with the current downtrend.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD slips on Catalan referendumMorning outlook - EUR/USD slips on Catalan referendum In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate managed to break to the top, crossing the 100-hour SMA plus another resistance level near 1.1810. During the two-day surge the pair even formed a little ascending channel. But due to referendum on independence in Catalonia the Euro lost 0.3% against the Dollar and fell out of the channel. The fact that now the pair is located below a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, suggests that might continue to the move to the bottom. The downfall might be additionally spurred by the official comments from the EU, Catalan and Spanish governments through the day. However, this event is unlikely to change the general scenario, according to which the rate is expected to continue to climb to the top after bouncing off from the 100% Fibo at 1.1715.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD encounters 100% Fibo near 1.1715Morning outlook - EUR/USD encounters 100% Fibo near 1.1715 Unfortunately for the Euro, a shared border of two senior descending channels did not manage to withhold the rate from falling to the south. However, this plunge did not last for long, as the currency pair made a turnaround apparently form the 100% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1715. Given that this barrier is additionally secured by the monthly S1 at 1.1692 and the weekly S3 at 1.1688, the further appreciation of the buck seems unlikely. On the other hand, the surge in the opposite direction is similarly obstructed by the weekly S2 at 1.1774 and the slipping 55-hour SMA. For this reason, the pair might move horizontally for some time waiting for a strong impulse, which can be provided, for instance, by release of data on the US Final GDP.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD heads upwards after Merkel winsMorning outlook - EUR/USD heads upwards after Merkel wins Although initially markets were positively anticipating the upcoming Draghi speech at Trinity College, but the subsequent reaction led to quite rapid recovery of the Dollar on Friday. To certain extent, such bearish movement could be related to anticipation of the German Parliamentary elections. However, as soon as it became clear that Merkel managed to retain her post, the Euro started restoring previously lost positions. From technical perspective, this upside momentum is likely to be neutralized by a combined resistance formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1.1947. On the other hand, Draghi's testimony at the European Parliament might create a new short-term volatility in the markets, which could give the pair a necessary impulse to bypass those barriers. In the opposite case, the rate is likely to fall to the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel. P.S. In result of the various fundamental events that happened during the previous week, the currency pair has formed a symmetrical triangle whose upper boundary represents a part of a junior descending channel and the lower boundary represents a part of a senior ascending channel. Accordingly, in the end of this or beginning of the next week the pair is expected to make a breakout from this pattern. This result will reveal what trend has prevailed and in which direction the currency rate would move in the nearest perspective (clearly seen on daily chart)
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938Morning outlook - EUR/USD begins new week near weekly PP at 1.1938 Due to release of negative data on the US Core Retail Sales, the Euro caught an upside momentum, which lasted until the pair met a resistance in the 1.1985-95 area. At the moment, the currency rate is located near the updated weekly PP at 1.1938, being squeezed between the 200- and 100-hour SMAs. Accordingly, an aggregate of technical indicators sends either neutral or ordinary buy signal. This fact as well as the traditional Monday's inactivity suggests that the pair is unlikely to make major advances today . However, generally, the pair is expected to make attempt to break through the above resistance towards the new weekly R1 at 1.2039. On the other side, an average market sentiment remains 65% bearish, which means that in case of a new rebound bears might try to drag the rate down to the monthly PP at 1.1881.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD fails to pass 55-hour SMAMorning outlook - EUR/USD fails to pass 55-hour SMA As it was expected, first half of the previous trading session the currency pair spent near the monthly PP at 1.1881. Unfortunately, a release of better than expected data on the US inflation did not cause any notable volatility in the markets even though initially traders tried to push the pair through the bottom trend-line of a medium-term ascending channel. A fully-fledged rebound did not happen as well, as the surge was quickly neutralized by the 55-hour SMAs. Taking into account that the northern side is secured by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs, while the southern side by the above monthly PP, the pair is expected to continue to more relatively horizontally at least until a release of information on the US Core Retail Sales.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD tries to bypass 1.20 levelMorning outlook - EUR/USD tries to bypass 1.20 level In line with expectations, a resistance created by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs prevented the further advance of the Euro against the Greenback. At the moment, this barrier is also strengthened by the weekly PP. For this reason, the pair is expected to fail to break to the top. However, a sharp decline should not happen as well, as the southern side remains reliably protected by the 200-hour SMA, which is moving along the lower support line of a long-term ascending channel. In other words, the rate is expected to stay for some time in this ascending triangle. On the other hand, an effect from release of data on the US PMI at 12:30 GMT might give a necessary impulse to bypass the above resistance a stay for some above the 1.9999 mark.
by UnknownUnicorn890690