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The ECB needs to keep interest rates above the 4% threshold to "IMF Europe Director Alfred Comer warned the ECB that if it does not cut interest rates soon, it will be forced to tighten monetary policy more costly later. The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo: AFP/TTXVN) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on November 8 that rapid wage growth in the euro zone could push inflation further higher. The European Central Bank (ECB) should therefore keep interest rates at record levels next year to "ease" price pressures. Last month, the ECB broke its record of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes. Markets are therefore predicting that the bank's next move could be a rate cut in April.
Long
by AstronautPioneer
The recent depreciation of the euro/dollar is expected to continThe majority of foreign exchange strategists expect the recent decline in the US dollar to continue throughout the year. The main driver for major currencies for the rest of 2023 is likely to be economic indicators. A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and rising Treasury yields caused the dollar, which had been rising against other currencies, to fall. This comes on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will end its rate hikes, sending the dollar down nearly 2% from last month's highs. Analysts expect the current dollar trend to continue. Almost two-thirds, or 28 out of 45 analysts, believe the dollar is likely to remain below current levels against major currencies by the end of the year. We also expect it to weaken against the euro and other G10 currencies over the next 12 months. Analyst and Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman said: ``The dollar and US yields have been on a strong upward trend over the past two to three months... but we seem to have reached a point where yields and the US dollar peak.'' ” he said. At MUFG, he said: He added that the market is increasingly confident the Fed will complete its rate hikes, making it difficult for yields to reach new highs this year. Recent labor market data shows the U.S. economy is still outperforming other economies, but it's starting to show signs of stress from interest rate hikes over the past year and a half. Still, currency speculators remain mostly net buyers of the dollar, indicating continued support for the dollar. Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe, explained that the dollar remained tactically long, especially compared to currencies with weaker fundamentals. The eurozone economy shrank by 0.1% last quarter, but the euro is expected to grow by about 4.0% over the next 12 months.
Short
by AstronautPioneer
EURUSD | Strong US Dollar, But Why?The value of the US dollar continues to rise Today on September 30, one Euro cost only $1.0573 and markets have finally come to the realization that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to fight inflation till it achieves its target goals, and, to do so, it will even raise its policy rate of interest one..or, possibly two...more times! even Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, is now saying that interest rates could hit 7.0 percent. "Are you prepared?" Dimon asks It seems as if market participants have doubted Fed Chairman Jay Powell ever since the Federal Reserve began to raise its policy rate of interest in the middle of March 2022.The underlying belief was that Mr. Powell and the Fed would "back off," not wanting to overdue a tight monetary policy and cause financial distress. So, the value of the U.S. dollar remained softer than many expected and the US stock market stayed stronger than many expected.But, seemingly, that time has changed. When did market attitudes change? Let's say toward the end of July 2023. That is, market participants only became "believers" after 16 months of the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate of interest and maintaining its effort at quantitative tightening. Why have I determined that market attitudes changed around the end of March? On July 14, 20232, one Euro cost $1.1230. The price of one Euro has declined almost steadily since that time.The dollar price of the British pound took a similar path.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note on July 14, 2023, was 3.820 percent. Currently, the yield is 4.620 percent. On July 31, the S&P 500 stock index closed at 4,589. The price has been downhill for most of the following period.The story that the markets seem to be telling us is that sometime in the middle of July 2023, market participants started taking the Federal Reserve at its word. Since then, the value of the U.S. dollar became stronger and stronger, as investors bought into the dollar.Bond prices fell and stock prices declined as investors sold these items. All of this is consistent with the fact that investors really started to believe that Mr. Powell and the Federal Reserve were going to do what it said it had set out to do.The Fed, market participants believed, going to continue to fight inflation and were going to bring the rate of price increases down to the level the Fed wanted...2.0 percent. In this past week, the Federal Reserve published its latest round of forecasts for the future. This release was followed by a new set of forecasts by the U.S Commerce Department. inflation and unemployment would approach the Fed's goals within the next year or so. The feeling expressed in both forecasts was that the Fed is succeeding in its efforts to get the economy back to a "more normal" rate of operation. Mr. Powell and other Federal Reserve leaders continued to caution the investment community to "be patient." But, the underlying message seemed to be, we are approaching what we set out to achieve. Bottom line, Mr. Powell and others were saying...be patient...after 18 months of quantitative tightening..we are getting there.It seems as if the markets have been right on the side of the Federal Reserve at this time. What the Fed has done supports a strong dollar relative to other currencies throughout the world.The US dollar deserves to be strong.But, there is still a way to go. The Fed may be getting the car in the garage, but the car is not fully in the garage yet...and the garage door has not been shut.Let's hope the job can be completed. Unfortunately, there may be some fiscal discomfort taking place before the final chapters are written. The potential government shutdown is not good news.
by moonypto
📈EURO analysis, Weekly insight into price behavior📉FX:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD Hello Traders, please check out my previous ideas. Continuing from the previous analytical scenario, if the euro stabilizes above the red zone (crossing the weekly Bollinger midline), the price can climb up to the right shoulder. In the opposite scenario, if the price does not follow the conditions of the previous scenario, the price can fall to around 1.07676. ✌💥If you are satisfied with my analytical content, please share my ideas💥✌ ✍🐱‍👤Otherwise, make sure you leave comments and let me know what you think.🐱‍👤✍ 🤑🍾Thank you for your support. I hope you will gain profit by following my analyses.🍾🤑 CrazyS✌
Long
by CrazyS
1
EurUsd -> Faking Everybody OutHello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of EurUsd 💪 The monthly timeframe on EurUsd is pretty clear with EurUsd currently retesting massive previous support which is now turned resistance at the psychological $1.1 level. With weekly market structure being bullish though, threre is no overall confluence at the moment so following the overall longer term picture I do expect a move lower now. And it seems like EurUsd is finally breaking daily support towards the downside - I am then just waiting for a clean retest and bearish confirmation before I then do expect a daily move lower. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
Short
by basictradingtv
56
EurUsd -> Perfectly Playing OutHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that EurUsd just recently perfectly retested and already rejected the quite nice bullish trendline of the weekly parallel rising channel. You can also see that the next weekly resistance is at the $1.12 level where we previous had strong weekly structure and also a resistance trendline so I simply do expect another push to retest the resistance before I then do expect a short term drop. On the daily timeframe you can see that after EurUsd perfectly broke above the resistance at the $1.078 level, we had a quite nicely rally towards the upside and EurUsd is now retesting resistance so I am just waiting for a bullish breakout and then I do expect another push higher to retest the next weekly resistance. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Long
by basictradingtv
37
EURUSD SELLS INCOMINGSticking to the basics of trading: The market stalled making a resistance zone for the buyers. Thus showing early selling pressure. The next area the market can possibly bounce from is at the 0.08500 mark. This mark would be a good area for buys continue the higher timeframe trend. For anyone going into the london session can use the 4H timeframe to see that price has potential to retest this level and carry more volume to the downside. However, BIG Reminder! The market can do what it wants, so beware that buys are still in play as the overall defining trend is FX:EURUSD bullish for the buyers.
by thespiant7
1
EurUsd -> Reversal CompletedHello Traders, welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis. On the weekly timeframe you can see that EurUsd just recently perfectly retested and is now rejecting a quite strong bullish trendline exactly at the $1.07 level. You can also see that weekly market structure and moving averages are bullish, EurUsd also just once again retested support at the $1.065 level so from a weekly perspective I simply do expect more continuation towards the upside from here. On the daily timeframe you can see that last week's analysis which is linked below perfectly played out and I am now just waiting for a retest of the neckline of the double bottom at the $1.077 level before I then do expect another impulse towards the upside. Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Long
by basictradingtv
27