EURUSD → Descending Wedge Support! Back up to 1.11!?EURUSD fell from the Resistance Zone into a two-legged pullback around the Daily 30EMA. There isn't much for bear strength, so are we in a position to long?
How do we trade this? 🤔
A long could definitely be justified if we get a strong bull close above the Daily 30EMA. We have a two-legged pullback from the Resistance Zone, several doji and weak bear bars showing weak bears, and RSI, while below the Moving Average, is at 47.00 and has room to move up. I suspect that if we get that strong bull bar, the RSI will rise above the Moving Average, which would support the long position suggested.
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 1.09500
🟥 Stop Loss: 1.08100
✅ Take Profit: 1.10900
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Two-legged pullback from the Resistance Zone
2. Multiple doji and weak bear bars as the price falls, showing weak bears
3. Support near the Daily 30EMA
4. RSI below Moving Average, but with a clear strong bull bar closing above the 30EMA, that could change
5. Once a strong bull bar closes above the Daily 30EMA, it's reasonable to long a 1:1 scalp
💰 Trading Tip 💰
It's reasonable to take half profits at the first resistance target in a long trade, or the first support target in a short trade. Using a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio for your first target, you can move your stop loss up to your entry price, locking in profits. This allows you to watch the rest of the trade execute without worry of losing money. This helps improve trading psychology and the equity in your account.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
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Eurusdbullish
EURUSD Longs from 1.08300 or 1.08000 back upThis week's bias for this pair aligns with GU, and I'll be aiming to initiate long positions from the demand levels positioned just beneath the current price. Whether it's from the nearby 2-hour demand zone or the 10-hour demand zone situated below, my objective is to buy back up to a supply level or potentially target the equal highs positioned above.
Ideally, I'm hoping for price to form a Wyckoff accumulation within my designated demand zones and provide a strong confirmation signal. If this doesn't happen, I'll wait for that zone to be breached, anticipating the spring to occur within the more favorable 10-hour demand zone.
Confluences for EURUSD are as follows:
- Price has been temporarily bullish to the upside and the 10hr demand zone caused BOS.
- I will be anticipating a Wyckoff accumulation to start formulating within my demand region.
- A pullback has been initiated from the reaction of the 6-hour supply zone.
- Lots of liquidity to the upside in the form of Asian highs and equal highs.
- Dollar (DXY) is looking to be bearish so I'm expecting this to be bullish.
P.S. While I maintain a bullish stance on this pair, I wouldn't be caught off guard if the reaction from the 6-hour supply zone triggers further downward movement, potentially breaking the structure to the downside. In such a scenario, I'll be more inclined to explore selling opportunities.
LAST WEEK OF JANUARY LETS HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK!
EURUSD → Nearing Support! Is it Time to Long!? Let's Answer.EURUSD rejected nicely off of the Resistance Zone at 1.10 and fell to 1.07300! If you shorted at the Resistance Zone per my last analysis, hold that short! It's reasonable to take profits here around 1:1 Risk/Reward and swing the latter half, but will we make it to the bottom?
How do we trade this? 🤔
If you're not currently in a trade, I would wait until the price falls closer to the Support Zone and bounces or wait for it to break Resistance and long above it. Look to enter a long in the 1.06 area if a strong bull signal and confirmation plays out and trade a 1:2 Risk/Reward taking profit just shy of the Resistance Zone. Your protective stop should be below the Support Zone giving you a clear 1:2 Risk/Reward!
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 1.05800
🟥 Stop Loss: 104.100
✅ Take Profit: 1.09200
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Rejection at the Resistance Zone, Run Short to 1.06.
3. Look for Support at Support Zone 1.054.
4. Look for Reversal Pattern, Bull Signal and Confirmation.
5. RSI at 45.00 far below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
The recent depreciation of the euro/dollar is expected to continThe majority of foreign exchange strategists expect the recent decline in the US dollar to continue throughout the year. The main driver for major currencies for the rest of 2023 is likely to be economic indicators. A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and rising Treasury yields caused the dollar, which had been rising against other currencies, to fall. This comes on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will end its rate hikes, sending the dollar down nearly 2% from last month's highs.
Analysts expect the current dollar trend to continue. Almost two-thirds, or 28 out of 45 analysts, believe the dollar is likely to remain below current levels against major currencies by the end of the year. We also expect it to weaken against the euro and other G10 currencies over the next 12 months.
Analyst and Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman said: ``The dollar and US yields have been on a strong upward trend over the past two to three months... but we seem to have reached a point where yields and the US dollar peak.'' ” he said. At MUFG, he said: He added that the market is increasingly confident the Fed will complete its rate hikes, making it difficult for yields to reach new highs this year. Recent labor market data shows the U.S. economy is still outperforming other economies, but it's starting to show signs of stress from interest rate hikes over the past year and a half. Still, currency speculators remain mostly net buyers of the dollar, indicating continued support for the dollar.
Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe, explained that the dollar remained tactically long, especially compared to currencies with weaker fundamentals. The eurozone economy shrank by 0.1% last quarter, but the euro is expected to grow by about 4.0% over the next 12 months.
Euro Market Analysis and Bearish Outlook for OctoberIn September, I had a bearish outlook for the Euro and successfully traded it, yielding over 250 pips in a month. The trade also provided numerous short-scalping opportunities as the Euro approached my higher timeframe target.
October Euro outlook
I still lean towards a bearish outlook for the Euro in October. I anticipate that the Euro may continue its downward movement and potentially reach the 2023 yearly low at 1.05140, with a monthly liquidity draw level at 1.03930 in mind.
Dollar Index (DXY) and Euro correlation
I have noticed that the Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading in a sellside imbalance buyside inefficiency (SIBI) pattern from November 2022, and the Euro seems to be trailing behind. This suggests that if the Dollar continues its upward trend, the Euro may also continue its downward trend.
Potential consolidation
I also believe that after such a rapid descent in the Euro, the market may experience some consolidation. This means that the price of the Euro may move sideways or within a narrow range for a period of time before continuing its downward trend.
My trading plan
In light of my analysis, I am staying on the sidelines when it comes to the Euro for now. I will wait to see how the market unfolds in October and how the probabilities play out before making any trading decisions.
Bullish Outlook on EURUSD - 18 AugOn the daily timeframe, the pair is currently trading within a bullish channel, forming higher lows and higher highs. Current price movement is trending towards key support zone at 1.0850, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and could fuel further bullish positions on the pair if price does not break through the support zone and ascending lower channel level. Since the pair experiences a pullback at the previous resistance level 1.1250, movements close to the zone would have to be paired with either a trailing stop loss or partial profit taking to manage exposures to another potential pullback. Beyond this zone, the previous high at 1.1450 coincides with the upper channel level and the 100% Fibonacci level, and we can gradually start trailing or shifting to breakeven as prices reaches or pushes past this level. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a reversal could occur and thus supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD: Fall or rise focus here
This is its 1h chart. It can be clearly seen that it has gone through a downward trend channel in the early stage. It has recently stepped out of this channel and built a small bottom. It is currently testing the first resistance and whether it can convert the resistance to support. is the most important thing right now. To judge it, in addition to analyzing its own trend, we also need to analyze it in combination with the trend of DXY.
In EURUSD's 1h chart, it is currently stepping back to MA30, but the overall pattern is still more advantageous for bears. The lower MA60 is near 1.070, and the support here will be relatively more effective.
In the 1h chart of DXY, MA30 has just been broken, and MA60 is near 103.8. If it cannot break through by then, it will fall back again, confirming the support of MA20.
On the 1D chart, the strong support of DXY is around 102.4, and the resistance is 103.85. If it breaks through, the top can reach around 105.6.
It can be inferred that EURUSD will still be under pressure at 1.088 with a high probability. Of course, to reach 1.088, the process of turning the current resistance into support must first be completed. In the near future, focus on the support around 1.073-1.069. Resistance near 1.08-1.09. If it falls below the support, there is a certain probability that the bottom will be around 1.048 (DXY105.6)
EURUSD 1H: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0780Price has recently broken out of the descending trendline. Price is hovering above a key support zone at 1.0680, which nears the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, on 1H timeframe. A throwback to this zone could present an opportunity to ride the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.0780, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price is above ichimoku cloud, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD: Buy
EURUSD is currently in a relatively obvious downward channel. Today, the lowest fell to around 1.094. This is also the starting point of the last rise. There was support. It rebounded to around 1.098 and then fell back. From the trend point of view, it has not yet stepped out of the downward channel, but here A pattern similar to a double bottom appears.
If it can get support around 1.096, it will try the resistance around 1.098 again. The probability of breaking through is relatively high. The upper target is around 1.10, so my trading signal is to go long.
Trading Signals:
buy: 1.096-1.095
tp: 1.099
sl: 1.094
sell: 1.101-1.103
tp:1..099
sl:1.103
Traders, I hope my signals can bring you profits, if you like my views, please support me and follow me!
EURUSD 4H: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.1050Price is currently range bound between the high of 1.1080 and the low of 1.0920. However, price is hovering over a key support zone at 1.0950. A throwback to this support zone, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension, could provide the bullish acceleration to the resistance zone at 1.1050. RSI exited the oversold region at 40, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0780Prices have broken past a key support zone at 1.0880 on the H1 timeframe. A throwback to this support zone, which is in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, could provide the opportunity to play the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.0900, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices are holding above the 20 EMA, and MACD is showing bullish momentum while ADX is above 25, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD M30: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0550On the M30 timeframe, prices are testing a key resistance zone at 1.0550. A break above this level would be an upside confirmation, which could provide the bullish acceleration to the next resistance zone at 1.0650, in line with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. Stochastics are in the oversold region below 20, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0650On the H1 timeframe, prices are showing bullish order flow, with higher lows and higher highs formed. A throwback to the support zone at 1.0650, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, could present an opportunity to ride the bounce to the support-turned-resistance zone at 1.0720. Prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud and 50 EMA as well, while ADX is indicating a strong trend and MACD is showing bullish momentum, supporting the bullish bias.
EUR/USD: Sell on Highs
Yesterday, X made it clear that the impact of news is only short-term, and once the energy is depleted, it will return to its original pace. So far, this view is correct. The current market trajectory has begun to gradually recover, which will also help predict future trends.
Since the market has gradually started to recover and entered the original operating rhythm, the trend of the US dollar index will also be relatively easier, after all, the overall direction is still bullish, while EUR/USD is bearish.
In summary, it is recommended to sell on highs for EUR/USD today, combined with the market conditions and the following suggestions:
Short at the range of 1.0660-1.0670, with a stop loss of 20 and targets at 1.0640, 1.0620, and 1.0600.
FX:EURUSD