Euro Market Analysis and Bearish Outlook for OctoberIn September, I had a bearish outlook for the Euro and successfully traded it, yielding over 250 pips in a month. The trade also provided numerous short-scalping opportunities as the Euro approached my higher timeframe target.
October Euro outlook
I still lean towards a bearish outlook for the Euro in October. I anticipate that the Euro may continue its downward movement and potentially reach the 2023 yearly low at 1.05140, with a monthly liquidity draw level at 1.03930 in mind.
Dollar Index (DXY) and Euro correlation
I have noticed that the Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading in a sellside imbalance buyside inefficiency (SIBI) pattern from November 2022, and the Euro seems to be trailing behind. This suggests that if the Dollar continues its upward trend, the Euro may also continue its downward trend.
Potential consolidation
I also believe that after such a rapid descent in the Euro, the market may experience some consolidation. This means that the price of the Euro may move sideways or within a narrow range for a period of time before continuing its downward trend.
My trading plan
In light of my analysis, I am staying on the sidelines when it comes to the Euro for now. I will wait to see how the market unfolds in October and how the probabilities play out before making any trading decisions.
Eurusdbullish
Bullish Outlook on EURUSD - 18 AugOn the daily timeframe, the pair is currently trading within a bullish channel, forming higher lows and higher highs. Current price movement is trending towards key support zone at 1.0850, which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and could fuel further bullish positions on the pair if price does not break through the support zone and ascending lower channel level. Since the pair experiences a pullback at the previous resistance level 1.1250, movements close to the zone would have to be paired with either a trailing stop loss or partial profit taking to manage exposures to another potential pullback. Beyond this zone, the previous high at 1.1450 coincides with the upper channel level and the 100% Fibonacci level, and we can gradually start trailing or shifting to breakeven as prices reaches or pushes past this level. Stochastic Oscillator is in oversold territory, suggesting a reversal could occur and thus supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD: Fall or rise focus here
This is its 1h chart. It can be clearly seen that it has gone through a downward trend channel in the early stage. It has recently stepped out of this channel and built a small bottom. It is currently testing the first resistance and whether it can convert the resistance to support. is the most important thing right now. To judge it, in addition to analyzing its own trend, we also need to analyze it in combination with the trend of DXY.
In EURUSD's 1h chart, it is currently stepping back to MA30, but the overall pattern is still more advantageous for bears. The lower MA60 is near 1.070, and the support here will be relatively more effective.
In the 1h chart of DXY, MA30 has just been broken, and MA60 is near 103.8. If it cannot break through by then, it will fall back again, confirming the support of MA20.
On the 1D chart, the strong support of DXY is around 102.4, and the resistance is 103.85. If it breaks through, the top can reach around 105.6.
It can be inferred that EURUSD will still be under pressure at 1.088 with a high probability. Of course, to reach 1.088, the process of turning the current resistance into support must first be completed. In the near future, focus on the support around 1.073-1.069. Resistance near 1.08-1.09. If it falls below the support, there is a certain probability that the bottom will be around 1.048 (DXY105.6)
EURUSD 1H: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0780Price has recently broken out of the descending trendline. Price is hovering above a key support zone at 1.0680, which nears the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, on 1H timeframe. A throwback to this zone could present an opportunity to ride the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.0780, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Price is above ichimoku cloud, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD: Buy
EURUSD is currently in a relatively obvious downward channel. Today, the lowest fell to around 1.094. This is also the starting point of the last rise. There was support. It rebounded to around 1.098 and then fell back. From the trend point of view, it has not yet stepped out of the downward channel, but here A pattern similar to a double bottom appears.
If it can get support around 1.096, it will try the resistance around 1.098 again. The probability of breaking through is relatively high. The upper target is around 1.10, so my trading signal is to go long.
Trading Signals:
buy: 1.096-1.095
tp: 1.099
sl: 1.094
sell: 1.101-1.103
tp:1..099
sl:1.103
Traders, I hope my signals can bring you profits, if you like my views, please support me and follow me!
EURUSD 4H: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.1050Price is currently range bound between the high of 1.1080 and the low of 1.0920. However, price is hovering over a key support zone at 1.0950. A throwback to this support zone, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension, could provide the bullish acceleration to the resistance zone at 1.1050. RSI exited the oversold region at 40, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0780Prices have broken past a key support zone at 1.0880 on the H1 timeframe. A throwback to this support zone, which is in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, could provide the opportunity to play the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.0900, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci extension. Prices are holding above the 20 EMA, and MACD is showing bullish momentum while ADX is above 25, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD M30: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0550On the M30 timeframe, prices are testing a key resistance zone at 1.0550. A break above this level would be an upside confirmation, which could provide the bullish acceleration to the next resistance zone at 1.0650, in line with the 261.8% Fibonacci extension. Stochastics are in the oversold region below 20, supporting our bullish bias.
EURUSD H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 1.0650On the H1 timeframe, prices are showing bullish order flow, with higher lows and higher highs formed. A throwback to the support zone at 1.0650, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, could present an opportunity to ride the bounce to the support-turned-resistance zone at 1.0720. Prices are holding above the Ichimoku cloud and 50 EMA as well, while ADX is indicating a strong trend and MACD is showing bullish momentum, supporting the bullish bias.
EUR/USD: Sell on Highs
Yesterday, X made it clear that the impact of news is only short-term, and once the energy is depleted, it will return to its original pace. So far, this view is correct. The current market trajectory has begun to gradually recover, which will also help predict future trends.
Since the market has gradually started to recover and entered the original operating rhythm, the trend of the US dollar index will also be relatively easier, after all, the overall direction is still bullish, while EUR/USD is bearish.
In summary, it is recommended to sell on highs for EUR/USD today, combined with the market conditions and the following suggestions:
Short at the range of 1.0660-1.0670, with a stop loss of 20 and targets at 1.0640, 1.0620, and 1.0600.
FX:EURUSD
Bullish outlook on EURUSD: 3 February 2023Prices have tested a key support zone at 1.0780 on the D1 timeframe. A throwback to this level, which is in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, could present an opportunity to ride the bounce to the resistance zone at 1.1150. A break above this level would be an upside confirmation, which could provide the bullish acceleration to the next resistance zone at 1.1450. Prices are lying above the Ichimoku Cloud as well, supporting our bullish bias.
Is the EUR/USD poised for a 2023 bull run?This is a Quarterly chart of the EUR/USD and it's something I'm keeping an eye on. What appears to be a falling wedge and MACD bullish divergence developing. Could we see another Euro 1.2200 again in 2023?
Will keep watching the price action going forward on Bullish momentum. The first hurdle will be 1.1100.
EURUSD buying opportunity | 28 November 2022- On the H4 timeframe, EURUSD came to test the resistance turned support zone at 1.02000, where a breakthrough led its ascent to the next resistance zone at 1.04650. Price retraced back down to the previous demand zone again, where it was aided by upbeat economic data in the EU and a confirmation of rate hike slow downs in the US to ascend back to the 1.04650 resistance zone again. In the weeks ahead, we forecast that the retreating dollar will extend the Euro’s bullish momentum to the next resistance zone at 1.07500.
- Stochastic RSI has dipped and exited the oversold region, where we can also see a bullish divergence. Meanwhile, EURUSD tapped into the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, before ascending over the Moving Average to current price. Both technicals are showing bullish signals, which supports our bullish bias.