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EURUSD Bullish Reversal Alert-Key Entry & Profit levelsThe EURUSD is currently forming a Bullish Shark Harmonic Pattern (XABCD) on the 4-hrs chart. This pattern is characterized by a specific series of Fibonacci retracements and extensions, signaling potential reversal points in the market. __________Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) and Confluence Factors_____ Point D, identified as the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), is a critical area where price action is expected to reverse its current trend. This PRZ is notably aligned with several confluence factors, strengthening our bullish bias: Key Support Area: Point D coincides with a significant support level, suggesting strong buyer interest and potential price reversal. Bullish RSI Divergence: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing bullish divergence, indicating a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. 78.6% Fibonacci Level: The PRZ is also at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous daily swing points, adding further credibility to the expected bullish reversal. _______________Trade Setup_______________ Given the above confluence of technical indicators, we anticipate a bullish trend reversal from Point D. The following trade setup is recommended: Entry Point: 1.07075, at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop Loss: Placed below the key support level at 1.06485 to mitigate risk. ____________Take Profit Levels____________ The take profit targets are strategically placed to maximize potential gains while managing risk: TP-1: 1.07665 TP-2: 1.08255 TP-3: 1.08845 Each take-profit level represents a logical point where price action may encounter resistance, providing opportunities to secure profits incrementally. Conclusion: The EURUSD is poised for a potential bullish reversal at the identified PRZ, supported by a convergence of technical indicators. By entering at 1.07075 and placing a stop loss below the support level at 1.06485, we position ourselves to capitalize on the expected upward movement. The outlined take profit levels offer a structured approach to profit-taking, balancing potential gains with prudent risk management. Recommendations: Traders are advised to monitor the EURUSD closely for confirmation of the bullish reversal before entering the trade. Adjustments to the trade setup may be necessary based on evolving market conditions and price action behavior.
Long
by trading_jupiter
EUR/USD Price Surge: Analysis and Future Outlook The EUR/USD price has surged significantly over the past 10 days. Let's explore the reasons behind this movement and the potential trends we might face in the coming days. Fundamental Analysis: The EUR/USD exchange rate has seen a significant increase over the past 10 days. This upward trend is primarily supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, driven by several economic factors. Recent inflation data shows that U.S. inflation is slowing down, with the annual inflation rate for June 2024 at 3.0%, a decrease from previous months. This has strengthened expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with investors anticipating rate cuts in September and possibly in November or December. On the other hand, the euro has been bolstered by the European Central Bank's (ECB) aggressive stance on raising interest rates, improving energy prospects in Europe, and relative weakness in the dollar. Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD chart indicates a potential structural change. Recently, as the price dropped to the lower part of the channel, it found support around the 1.07 level, hitting an upward trendline without making a lower low from the previous wave at 1.06. From that level, the price rose, testing the upper part of the channel and closing the daily and weekly candles at the previous high around 1.09. This is a crucial level; if it breaks with a daily candle, it would confirm the structural change, leading to a potential further rise. Conversely, a rejection at this level could result in a decline. Volume Analysis: In recent sessions, the Point of Control (POC) has consistently been at the beginning of the session, indicating significant volume gaps in the daily candles. The overall POC for the channel is at the 1.08 level, which could act as a support if the price declines. If the price continues to rise, there are many upper areas left to fill from the highs of the previous year. Sentiment Analysis: Current retail sentiment shows a 91% short position against 9% long, with short volumes at a four-year high. However, institutional positions as of the 2024-07-09 COT report indicate 393,029 long contracts against 160,108 short. Dealers, on the other hand, are 275,000 short against 9,478 long. This discrepancy suggests that institutional players are aligned with the market, discouraging short positions. Personal Analysis: In my opinion, the euro's recent rise seems exaggerated given the negative IPC, a rate cut by the ECB, a favorable PPI for the dollar, and Powell's statements indicating it is not yet time to cut rates. I expect a retracement from this level or slightly higher to fill some of the gaps left during the rise, after which the market will decide on the next direction. Powell's speech on Monday will be crucial. However, I wouldn't be surprised by a continued rise, as summer markets can be very unpredictable. If you don't have any open positions, it's wise to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before entering. I hope this analysis has been helpful. If you found it useful, please leave a boost to show your appreciation for the work done.
by jamesbond70
EURUSD READY TO RISE OR SHOULD WE VISIT LOWER AREAS?In previous analyzes we took the various shorts made in recent weeks and with the last missed pending operation I mentioned that from then on I would focus only on buy operations, so here I am! We are testing the latest support right now, maybe creating a double bottom? if so it could be a good starting point for a long. At the same time I see a TVC:DXY that is still very strong, which despite the negative news is continuing to rise, but the rate cut could get closer and before that it could visit the highs at 106.40 which would bring the euro to the 1.6000 zone which I think is excellent to buy. So I leave you with two setups: the first is riskier on a structure that has yet to be completed, while the second is slightly safer. Be careful, happy trading everyone.
Long
by jamesbond70
EUR/USD Slips as Investors Await US Housing DataThe EUR/USD pair failed to sustain Monday's gains, closing in negative territory on Tuesday. Currently, the pair is struggling to regain traction, trading around 1.0690 in the European session on Wednesday. The price appears to be rebounding from a demand area near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous swing lower. Additionally, a divergence on the H1 timeframe suggests a potential bullish impulse. According to the COT report, institutional investors are increasingly shifting their funds to the USD side. This movement supports a potential bullish scenario in the short term, but we anticipate a bearish scenario to follow in the future. With no significant macroeconomic data releases, investors are cautious about taking large positions. Later today, the US economic docket will feature New Home Sales data for May, but it is unlikely to significantly impact the market.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD Trades Higher on Monday After Rebound from supportsThe EUR/USD currency pair experienced a notable upward movement on Monday, following a rebound from critical support levels around 1.0700 and 1.0640 during the early European session. This rebound marks a significant shift after a period of pressure, largely attributed to potential risks emerging from France's financial situation. The speculation that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) may form a new government has raised concerns over France's fiscal stability, thereby dampening the Euro's appeal. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair displayed a rejection at the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level derived from the major swing low, precisely within the support area identified last week. This rejection was further supported by a double divergence observed in both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic indicators on the H4 timeframe, signaling a potential bullish reversal. The Fibonacci retracement level is a crucial tool used by traders to identify potential reversal levels. The 78.60% retracement level, in particular, is considered a deep retracement and often indicates strong support or resistance. The fact that the price rejected this level suggests a strong bullish sentiment among traders. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors The broader market sentiment has been influenced by political developments in France. The potential ascendancy of Marine Le Pen's National Rally to government raises significant concerns over fiscal policy changes, which could impact the overall economic stability of France and, by extension, the Eurozone. Such political uncertainties often lead to increased volatility in currency markets, as investors adjust their positions based on perceived risks. Despite the political uncertainties, no significant economic releases were scheduled for today, particularly concerning the Empire State Manufacturing Index for the USD. This absence of major economic data implies that the currency pair's movement is driven more by technical factors and geopolitical news rather than immediate economic indicators. Outlook and Future Expectations Looking ahead, traders and analysts are anticipating potential strong volatility in the EUR/USD pair as they await economic data releases in the coming days. The lack of significant economic news today leaves the pair susceptible to technical trading and news-driven volatility. Given the current technical setup and market sentiment, a bullish impulse is expected in the EUR/USD pair. The rejection of the 78.60% Fibonacci level, coupled with the double divergence in the RSI and Stochastic indicators, points towards a potential continuation of the upward trend. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic releases and political developments for further cues. In summary, the EUR/USD pair's rise on Monday, following a rebound from crucial support levels, highlights the interplay between technical indicators and geopolitical factors. While the speculation surrounding France's political future weighs on the Euro, the technical rejection of key support levels suggests a potential bullish trend. As traders await more economic data, the pair is poised for further volatility, with a bullish outlook prevailing in the short term.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD Faces Pressure, Eyes Potential Bullish RetracementFollowing Wednesday's surge, EUR/USD reversed course and experienced significant losses on Thursday. The pair remains under pressure on Friday, trading at its lowest level since early May, just below 1.0700. This downturn reflects the broader market sentiment and the evolving economic landscape. The shift in risk sentiment helped the US Dollar (USD) gain strength during the American trading hours on Thursday. Additionally, the negative impact of soft inflation data on the USD began to dissipate as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in light of the hawkish revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed's commitment to its current monetary policy stance has provided a boost to the USD, further pressuring the EUR/USD pair. From a technical perspective, the price has reached a strong support area. Here, we observe a double divergence on both the RSI and Stochastic indicators, signaling potential bullish momentum. Furthermore, the price has touched the 78.6% retracement level from the previous swing low, adding to the likelihood of a reversal. These technical indicators suggest that the EUR/USD may be poised for a bullish retracement. Despite the current downward pressure, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of resilience. The technical indicators provide a hopeful outlook for traders looking for a recovery. The double divergence on the RSI and Stochastic indicators, coupled with the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, points towards a potential rebound. Traders will be closely monitoring these indicators for confirmation of a bullish trend reversal in the coming sessions.
Long
by FOREXN1
2
EUR/USD Follows Bullish Path Post-CPI; Buy Limit Strategy FocusEUR/USD experienced a significant upward movement on Wednesday, driven by an overall increase in market risk appetite following the release of a cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. This positive sentiment was initially bolstered as the lower inflation figures suggested a potential easing of pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively. However, the enthusiasm was tempered later in the day due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance reflected in its latest update to the dot plot of interest rate expectations. This update indicated a possibility of more rate hikes in the future than previously anticipated, which crimped market sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the price action adhered closely to our earlier analysis. The EUR/USD pair achieved all the take-profit targets we had established beforehand. Post-FOMC meeting, the price action retraced the gains from the CPI-induced bullish impulse, creating a gap in the market. This gap, left by the rapid price movement following the CPI release, typically attracts market participants looking to "fill" it, as prices often return to these levels to establish more balanced trading conditions. Given the current scenario, we are contemplating a strategic approach involving a potential buy limit order. This approach is based on the expectation that the price will return to cover the unfilled gap left by the CPI announcement. The buy limit order would allow us to enter the market at a more advantageous price point, capitalizing on the anticipated retracement. Additionally, the broader economic context and market sentiment will be closely monitored to adjust our strategy as needed, ensuring that our trading decisions are well-informed and responsive to ongoing developments. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown resilience and upward momentum, the mixed signals from recent economic data and Fed communications warrant a cautious yet opportunistic approach. By setting a buy limit order, we aim to leverage the expected price correction, positioning ourselves to benefit from subsequent bullish movements.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Awaits Volatility Ahead of Key US Data and FOMC DecisionThe EUR/USD pair is currently oscillating within a narrow range of 1.0750 - 1.0722 during the Asian session on Wednesday, consolidating the losses accumulated over the past three days. This period of consolidation comes as traders adopt a cautious approach, awaiting significant economic events before committing to new directional bets. Market Sentiment and Upcoming Economic Data The subdued trading activity can be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the release of the US consumer inflation figures and the crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Both events are expected to have a substantial impact on market volatility and could provide fresh momentum for the EUR/USD pair. US Consumer Inflation Figures The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, particularly the Core CPI m/m, is a key indicator of inflation and is closely watched by market participants. The data release is expected to shed light on the current inflationary pressures within the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Strong inflation data could bolster expectations of a hawkish Fed, potentially supporting the US Dollar and putting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. FOMC Decision In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another critical event on the horizon. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy actions. Traders will be particularly interested in any indications regarding the timing of interest rate hikes or tapering of asset purchases. A more hawkish stance could lead to increased demand for the US Dollar, impacting the EUR/USD pair. Technical Perspective From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a phase of consolidation. The price is hovering around the support level at 1.0722 and resistance at 1.0750. The market is awaiting the release of the Core CPI m/m and the FOMC decision to trigger the necessary volatility for a significant price movement. Given the current technical indicators and market sentiment, we are looking for a potential long impulse once the data is released. In conclusion the EUR/USD pair remains in a tight range as traders await key economic data and the FOMC decision. The outcome of these events will likely determine the next directional move for the pair. From a technical perspective, we anticipate a bullish impulse following the release of the US inflation figures and the FOMC announcement, provided the data supports such a move. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and be ready to adjust their positions accordingly.
Long
by FOREXN1
1