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EUR/CAD Bearish Flag Breakdown Toward Fibonacci SuppAnalysis 1. **Trend Breakdown:** * The chart shows a clear **bearish structure** developing after a strong rally to the 1.58800 area (Fibonacci 1.618 extension level). * Two upward trendlines were broken successively, confirming bearish momentum. 2. **Fibonacci Levels:** * The retracement from 1.58800 down to the 0.382 level (1.54586) has held significant importance. * Price action is respecting the **Fibonacci retracement zones**, with rejection near the 0.786 and 1.0 levels (1.56915 - 1.57109). 3. **Bearish Flag Pattern:** * A small **bearish flag/pennant** formed after a strong drop, which has now broken downward. * This confirms the **continuation of the bearish move**. 4. **Volume Confirmation:** * Volume spikes during the initial sell-off and again on recent bearish candles suggest **strong selling interest**. 5. **Trade Setup (Marked on Chart):** * **Entry:** Near 1.56443 * **Stop-Loss:** Around 1.57109 (just above recent highs) * **Target:** Around 1.54848–1.54500 zone, aligning with prior demand and 0.382 Fib level --- **Conclusion:** The chart signals a high-probability **short setup**, backed by a break of structure, Fibonacci confluence, bearish flag breakdown, and volume. A continued decline toward the 1.54500–1.54800 region is likely, provided the price stays below 1.57100.
Short
by KingProTrader
EURUSD Bearish Setup | Head and Shoulders BreakdownEUR/USD has formed a clear Head and Shoulders pattern on the 15-minute chart, indicating a potential short-term trend reversal. Key Technical Points: Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder are well-defined. Price has broken below the neckline support around 1.1375, confirming bearish intent. Volume confirms the selling pressure on the right shoulder breakdown. Target area aligns with previous price action around 1.1294, a likely support zone. Risk is controlled with a stop above the invalidation level near 1.1376. This setup reflects classical price action structure and could offer a clean downside move if momentum continues. 📊 Pure technical structure — pattern-based idea with disciplined trade planning.
Short
by UAE_USA_GOLD_TRADERS
EURUSD time for correctionMonthly On the monthly timeframe, we came to the Premium zone and captured Monthly Fractal High, where previously there was predominance from the sell side. Weekly Price has formed a Weekly FVG, indicating strong dominance from the buy side. However, it is important to understand WHERE this has led us ? The current quotes are interesting for sellers. Hence, we should assume that the price may receive a counter offer from the sell side. It is logical to assume potential points A and B in this context. Daily Price has formed primary signs of change in the price delivery state: - Bullish PD Array disrespecting - BISI forming - CISD forming All this indicates a shift of initiative to the selling side, so it is logical to expect a continuation of the downward movement after interaction with the marked PD Array. Also, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the price is within the Inside Bar for the 3rd day already. This means that recently the price has been held within the same values, which indicates a balance of power between buyers and sellers at the current quotes. In such a situation, all we have to do is to find the optimal area to continue the downward price formation.
Short
by Almenio
EURNZD Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone (1H Chart)✅ 1. Market Context & Structure Analysis The pair (EUR/NZD) was in a short-term downtrend before forming a higher low, indicating a potential bullish reversal. A W-shaped structure is visible, suggesting a double bottom around the 1.8960–1.8970 zone. The price has bounced multiple times from the demand zone (green box), confirming strong buying interest. The recent price action shows the market respecting structure with a clean impulse–correction–impulse pattern, creating a potential continuation leg. 📍 2. Entry Criteria Entry Price Range: 1.8960 – 1.8970 Why? This area coincides with a tested support zone, from where price previously rallied. The current pullback to this area presents a low-risk buying opportunity. Candlestick confirmation (e.g., bullish engulfing or pin bar) would further validate the entry. 🔐 3. Stop Loss (Risk Management) Stop Loss Placement: Below 1.8930 Reasoning: Keeps SL below the structure low and the demand zone. If price breaks this level, it invalidates the bullish setup and prevents deeper losses. 🎯 4. Take Profit Levels (Targets) TP1 -1.9050 Minor resistance / partial booking TP2 -1.9100 First key resistance zone TP3 -1.9140 Swing high and strong supply area (red zone) Risk-to-Reward (R:R): ~1:2.5 to 1:3+ You can trail your stop as price moves toward these levels. 📊 5. Technical Confluences ✅ Support Zone: Price bounced multiple times from 1.8960 ✅ Bullish Market Structure: Higher highs and higher lows are forming ✅ Chart Pattern: Double bottom / W-pattern breakout potential ✅ Fibonacci (optional): The zone may also align with a 61.8% retracement (not shown but often observed) ⚙️ 6. Trade Management Strategy 🔄 Partial Exit: Book 50% profits at TP1 ⏫ Trail SL: Move SL to entry after TP1 hit to make trade risk-free 🔚 Full Exit: At TP3 or if strong bearish reversal candle forms near resistance ⚠️ 7. Risk Disclaimer & Notes Avoid overleveraging. Only risk 1–2% of your capital. Reconfirm the trade setup during the London or early NY session for better volatility. News events (like RBNZ or ECB speeches) could increase volatility — always check the economic calendar before entry. ======================================================== Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TradZoo
EURUSD BEARISH PRESSURE .?Technical Analysis: Current Price Movement: The EUR/USD pair has recently dipped below the 1.1200 level, indicating a bearish trend. Resistance and Support Levels: The resistance at 1.14600 remains a significant barrier, while the pair is approaching the support target of 1.09500. Fundamental Factors: US Dollar Strength: The US dollar has gained strength due to positive trade developments and robust employment data. Eurozone Economic Outlook: The Euro faces challenges amid expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank, contributing to its weakness against the dollar. Conclusion: Given the current technical indicators and fundamental factors, the EUR/USD pair is under bearish pressure. Traders should monitor key levels, with a focus on the support at 1.09500 and resistance at 1.14600, to inform their trading strategies
Short
by Zickey_11
EURUSD SELL (DOWNTREND) H4 SHORT LOOKEUR/USD Market Analysis Trend: Bearish Pattern: Strong downward momentum observed after recent highs around 1.1570 Sell Entry Zone: Confirmed with bearish momentum Target Levels: 1st Target: 1.11000 – Key psychological and technical level 2nd Target: 1.09100 – Near the 55-day SMA, strong historical support Final Target: 1.07500 – Close to 200-day SMA and March lows Stop Loss: 1.15500 – Just below the recent high (1.1570), to limit upside risk.
Short
by Zickey_11
6
EURUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W18 D1 Y25EURUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W18 D1 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅4 hour bullish order block ✅Intraday 15' order blocks ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker USD📌 EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker US Dollar 📉 🌍 Fundamental Overview EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.1400, as market sentiment remains sensitive to developments in the US-China trade situation and broader monetary policy expectations. Despite recent USD weakness — where the greenback lost ground against all G10 currencies this April — the Euro is facing renewed selling pressure amid rising speculation about further ECB rate cuts. ECB policymakers, including Olli Rehn and François Villeroy de Galhau, highlighted the increasing risks of missing the 2% inflation target, reinforcing the need for more monetary easing if necessary. Meanwhile, mixed signals between Trump and Beijing over trade negotiations have kept uncertainty high, putting both USD and risk sentiment in flux. 📈 Key Economic Events to Watch US Data: JOLTS Job Openings Q1 GDP Preliminary ISM Manufacturing PMI ADP Employment Change Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Core PCE Price Index (March) Eurozone Data: Q1 GDP Preliminary April HICP Inflation Recent weaker-than-expected Spanish GDP (0.6% vs. forecast 0.7%) also adds pressure on the broader Eurozone outlook. 📊 Technical Outlook – EUR/USD Immediate Resistance: 1.1450 – 1.1475 Immediate Support: 1.1375 – 1.1340 The pair is now hovering near the 1.1400 psychological level, with slight bearish momentum: A break below 1.1375 could open the path towards 1.1340. On the upside, holding above 1.1400 and reclaiming 1.1450 would be needed to revive bullish momentum. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains trapped around 99.20, hinting at limited immediate USD strength but vulnerable to macro catalysts. 🧠 Trading Strategy Prefer short-term sell setups if EUR/USD fails to hold 1.1400 and breaks below 1.1375. Bullish setups are only valid if Price closes firmly above 1.1450, aiming towards 1.1475 resistance. ⚡ Traders should stay cautious ahead of major data this week, especially US NFP and Core PCE, which could redefine short-term Dollar strength. 💬 Are you watching for a deeper pullback or waiting for a bounce above 1.1450? Let’s discuss! 👇👇👇
Short
by MMFlowTrading
3
EUR/USD Bullish Breakout Trade Setup – Targeting 1.18089Entry Point: 1.13860 Stop Loss Zone: 1.13642 to 1.12578 Resistance Point: 1.14320 Target (TP) Point: 1.18089 🔍 Observations Support Zone: Marked in purple near the entry and stop-loss area, suggesting a strong demand zone. Resistance Zone: Around 1.14320, indicating a potential breakout level. Trend: Short-term uptrend after a consolidation range. Risk/Reward Ratio: Quite favorable, targeting a move of approximately 470+ pips (4.20% gain) from entry to target. 📊 Technical Indicators Moving Averages: Red (likely 20 EMA): Price recently crossed above, showing bullish momentum. Blue (likely 50 or 200 EMA): Serving as dynamic support. Price Action: Formation suggests a potential breakout from resistance toward the 1.18 target. 🧠 Conclusion This is a long (buy) setup expecting a bullish breakout: Buy entry above the support zone. Stop-loss placed below major support (1.12578). Target set significantly higher, aligning with prior structure or resistance at 1.18089
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
4
Euro Stablecoin BOOMS: Bye, USD?The Euro Stablecoin Ascends: EURC Hits Record High as Traders Eye Dollar Alternatives Amid Global Uncertainty For years, the digital asset landscape has been dominated by the US dollar, not just in trading volume but fundamentally through the ubiquity of USD-pegged stablecoins. Tokens like Tether (USDT) and Circle's own USD Coin (USDC) have become the bedrock of the crypto economy, acting as crucial bridges between volatile cryptocurrencies and traditional fiat, facilitating trading, lending, and yield generation within decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the winds of change may be subtly shifting. Amidst a backdrop of persistent global trade tensions, geopolitical maneuvering, and questions surrounding the long-term trajectory of the US dollar, alternative fiat-backed stablecoins are gaining traction. Leading this nascent charge is the Euro Coin (EURC), Circle's Euro-backed offering, which recently surged to a record market capitalization exceeding $246 million. This milestone, while still dwarfed by its multi-billion dollar USD counterparts, is significant. It signals a growing appetite among traders, investors, and institutions for stable digital assets pegged to currencies other than the greenback. The rise of EURC isn't happening in a vacuum; it reflects a confluence of factors challenging the dollar's undisputed reign in the digital sphere and highlighting the strategic appeal of diversification. Understanding the Stablecoin Status Quo and the Dollar's Dominance Stablecoins are indispensable cogs in the crypto machine. They offer price stability relative to a specific asset (usually a major fiat currency), allowing market participants to park funds, calculate profits, pay for services, and interact with DeFi protocols without the wild price swings characteristic of Bitcoin or Ethereum. USDT and USDC have achieved massive network effects, integrated across countless exchanges, wallets, and DeFi applications, making them the default choice for liquidity and settlement. Their success, however, inherently ties a vast swathe of the digital economy to the US dollar's fate and US monetary policy. For international users, particularly those operating primarily within the Eurozone or holding significant Euro-denominated assets or liabilities, relying solely on USD stablecoins introduces foreign exchange (FX) risk and potential conversion inefficiencies. Enter EURC: A Regulated Euro On-Chain Launched by Circle, the same regulated fintech firm behind the highly successful USDC, Euro Coin (EURC) aims to replicate the trust and utility of its dollar sibling, but pegged 1:1 to the Euro. Each EURC token is intended to be fully backed by Euros held in dedicated, segregated bank accounts under Circle's custody. This emphasis on transparency and regulatory compliance, mirroring the approach taken with USDC, is crucial for building trust, especially among institutional players wary of less transparent stablecoin issuers. The recent surge in EURC's supply to over €246 million (equivalent to ~$246 million at the time of the record, assuming near parity for simplicity, though the exact USD value fluctuates) indicates accelerating adoption. This growth isn't just passive accumulation; it suggests active minting driven by real demand. Why the Shift? Trade Uncertainty and the Allure of Diversification The primary catalyst cited for this growing interest in non-USD stablecoins is the pervasive sense of uncertainty clouding the global trade environment and the US dollar's outlook. Several factors contribute to this: 1. Geopolitical Tensions & Deglobalization Trends: Ongoing conflicts, shifting alliances, and a move towards regional trading blocs can create volatility and potentially weaken dominant currencies like the dollar as nations explore alternative payment and reserve systems. 2. US Economic Concerns: Debates around US national debt levels, inflation trajectory, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions can lead some international investors and traders to hedge against potential dollar depreciation. 3. Desire for FX Hedging: Businesses and traders operating significantly within the Eurozone may prefer a Euro-native stablecoin to minimize the costs and risks associated with constantly converting between EUR and USD stablecoins. Holding EURC directly aligns their digital cash position with their operational currency. 4. European Regulatory Clarity (MiCA): The implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in the European Union provides a clearer framework for stablecoin issuers and users within the bloc, potentially boosting confidence in well-regulated Euro stablecoins like EURC. 5. DeFi Diversification: As the DeFi ecosystem matures, users are seeking more diverse collateral types and trading pairs. EURC allows for the creation of Euro-based liquidity pools and lending markets, catering to a specific user base and reducing systemic reliance on USD assets. Traders aren't necessarily predicting an imminent dollar collapse, but rather strategically positioning themselves to mitigate risk. Holding a portion of their stable digital assets in EURC provides a hedge – if the dollar weakens against the Euro, the value of their EURC holdings, when measured in dollars, would increase, offsetting potential losses on USD-denominated assets. Use Cases and Potential Beyond Hedging While hedging FX risk is a significant driver, the utility of EURC extends further: • Seamless Euro Transactions: Facilitates frictionless payments and settlements within the Eurozone using blockchain technology. • European DeFi Growth: Enables the development of DeFi applications tailored to the European market, offering Euro-based borrowing, lending, and yield opportunities. • Remittances: Potentially offers a more efficient channel for cross-border Euro transfers compared to traditional banking rails. • Trading Pairs: Allows exchanges to offer direct EURC trading pairs against various cryptocurrencies, simplifying the process for Euro-based traders. Challenges and the Road Ahead Despite its record supply, EURC faces hurdles. Its market capitalization and liquidity remain a fraction of USDT's and USDC's. This lower liquidity can mean higher slippage on large trades and limits its immediate utility as deep collateral in major DeFi protocols, which thrive on multi-billion dollar liquidity pools. Building the network effect – getting listed on more exchanges, integrated into more wallets, and accepted by more DeFi platforms – takes time and concerted effort. Furthermore, EURC's success is intrinsically linked to the stability and economic health of the Eurozone itself. It diversifies away from the dollar, but not away from fiat risk entirely. The regulatory landscape, while clarifying under MiCA, will continue to evolve and shape the operational environment. Conclusion: A Sign of a Maturing Market The surge in Circle's EURC supply to over $246 million is more than just a numerical milestone; it's a tangible indicator of a maturing stablecoin market seeking diversification beyond the US dollar. Driven by global trade uncertainties, geopolitical shifts, and a desire among European users and savvy traders to hedge FX risk, Euro-based stablecoins are carving out a growing niche. While the dollar-pegged giants still dominate, the ascent of well-regulated alternatives like EURC signifies a crucial step towards a potentially multi-polar stablecoin future. It underscores the demand for trusted, compliant digital representations of major world currencies, offering users greater choice and resilience in an increasingly complex global financial landscape. The journey for EURC and its Euro counterparts is still in its early stages, but the trend towards diversification is clear, promising a more varied and potentially more stable digital asset ecosystem ahead.
Long
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25 - Weekly Order Block rejection Setup 1 -15' break of structure - Tokyo low range remains - Pull back into 15' order block - Lower time frame shift in price action from bullish to bearish Setup 2 - Lower time frame break of structure - Lower time frame bearish candle formation Let's see how EURUSD short set up plays. Certainly short potential but as always. We await price action to present itself to us. It is far too easy to find a position once we have noticed potential. Sit back and await the play! EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25 FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD Daily Analysis 📊 EURUSD Daily Chart – 12/04/2025 Price has shown strong bullish momentum after a clear market structure shift (MSS) and a clean break above the previous daily low (PDL). The recent breakout from the order block (OB) confirms bullish intent, supported by the price filling and respecting the Fair Value Gaps (FVG). 🔍 Key Highlights: Bullish MSS confirms a shift in structure. Price filled the FVG below and used it as support. Potential retracement into the new FVG (around 1.11500–1.12500) before targeting the monthly high at 1.14738. 📈 Bias: Bullish 📌 Target: Monthly high above 1.14700 📉 Watch for: Price reaction at FVG zone before continuation.
Long
by Herotraderfx
FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite. Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD. This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment. Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons: 1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain. 2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision. 3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position. The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess: • Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations. • Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth. • Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows. This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure. The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences: • Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads). • Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price). • Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect. The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity. Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No. While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic. Here's why: 1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity. 2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar. 3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of: o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed). o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States. o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)? o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa? 4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly. Conclusion The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W15 Y25 TUESDAY 8TH APRIL 2025EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W15 Y25 TUESDAY 8TH APRIL 2025 Welcome back if you're returning, Welcome if you're new here! Let's take a long into a much unchanged EUERUSD short analysis. The weekly time frame in particular is setting the short scene here. The weekly order block created in September 2024 is providing the valid short point of interest and we have witnessed rejection from that area. It is also worth mentioning risk management. It does not really feel like a change in dynamic, the majority of us have seen similar price action movements during financial global shifts. My only take away is RISK MANAGEMENT during those/ these periods. One thing I have noticed being a trader is I can always find a position, the question is, BUT... "what position are you going to execute" This was the difference between FRGNT now and FRGNT then. Take EURUSD, we have alerts set just below our points of interest. Once that alert sounds, we are aware that our high probability set up is to be looked at closer. EURUSD short forecast in that case remains 100% unchanged at this time and I shall link the EURUSD short forecast from week 15 beginning. You may feel that there is no need to read but I hope this reenforces that at times there are trading periods in which there simply is no position to execute. Our job at professional risk managers is to ensure that when our set up does materialise, we are there ready with out account balance intact to bank the full rewards. FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EUR/CHF Bullish Reversal Setup from Key Support Zone – Targeting1. Support Zone (Purple Box at Bottom): The price has tested this zone multiple times (marked by green arrows), indicating strong demand and a potential double or triple bottom pattern forming. This support zone ranges roughly between 0.93150 and 0.93350. 2. Projected Bullish Move: A projected move is drawn from the current price level (around 0.93638) to a target zone near 0.94774, which is marked as the "EA Target Point". This suggests a potential gain of approximately 1.53% (142.7 pips). 3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): EMA 30 (red) is currently below the
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
1