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EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25 - Weekly Order Block rejection Setup 1 -15' break of structure - Tokyo low range remains - Pull back into 15' order block - Lower time frame shift in price action from bullish to bearish Setup 2 - Lower time frame break of structure - Lower time frame bearish candle formation Let's see how EURUSD short set up plays. Certainly short potential but as always. We await price action to present itself to us. It is far too easy to find a position once we have noticed potential. Sit back and await the play! EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D14 Y25 FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EURUSD Daily Analysis 📊 EURUSD Daily Chart – 12/04/2025 Price has shown strong bullish momentum after a clear market structure shift (MSS) and a clean break above the previous daily low (PDL). The recent breakout from the order block (OB) confirms bullish intent, supported by the price filling and respecting the Fair Value Gaps (FVG). 🔍 Key Highlights: Bullish MSS confirms a shift in structure. Price filled the FVG below and used it as support. Potential retracement into the new FVG (around 1.11500–1.12500) before targeting the monthly high at 1.14738. 📈 Bias: Bullish 📌 Target: Monthly high above 1.14700 📉 Watch for: Price reaction at FVG zone before continuation.
Long
by Herotraderfx
FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite. Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD. This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment. Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons: 1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain. 2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision. 3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position. The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess: • Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations. • Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth. • Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows. This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure. The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences: • Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads). • Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price). • Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect. The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity. Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No. While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic. Here's why: 1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity. 2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar. 3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of: o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed). o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States. o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)? o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa? 4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly. Conclusion The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W15 Y25 TUESDAY 8TH APRIL 2025EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W15 Y25 TUESDAY 8TH APRIL 2025 Welcome back if you're returning, Welcome if you're new here! Let's take a long into a much unchanged EUERUSD short analysis. The weekly time frame in particular is setting the short scene here. The weekly order block created in September 2024 is providing the valid short point of interest and we have witnessed rejection from that area. It is also worth mentioning risk management. It does not really feel like a change in dynamic, the majority of us have seen similar price action movements during financial global shifts. My only take away is RISK MANAGEMENT during those/ these periods. One thing I have noticed being a trader is I can always find a position, the question is, BUT... "what position are you going to execute" This was the difference between FRGNT now and FRGNT then. Take EURUSD, we have alerts set just below our points of interest. Once that alert sounds, we are aware that our high probability set up is to be looked at closer. EURUSD short forecast in that case remains 100% unchanged at this time and I shall link the EURUSD short forecast from week 15 beginning. You may feel that there is no need to read but I hope this reenforces that at times there are trading periods in which there simply is no position to execute. Our job at professional risk managers is to ensure that when our set up does materialise, we are there ready with out account balance intact to bank the full rewards. FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EUR/CHF Bullish Reversal Setup from Key Support Zone – Targeting1. Support Zone (Purple Box at Bottom): The price has tested this zone multiple times (marked by green arrows), indicating strong demand and a potential double or triple bottom pattern forming. This support zone ranges roughly between 0.93150 and 0.93350. 2. Projected Bullish Move: A projected move is drawn from the current price level (around 0.93638) to a target zone near 0.94774, which is marked as the "EA Target Point". This suggests a potential gain of approximately 1.53% (142.7 pips). 3. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs): EMA 30 (red) is currently below the
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
1
EURUSD on high time frame "When considering EUR/USD, the price has decisively broken the structure on the daily time frame. Currently, it is undergoing a pullback towards the origin of the move. In my analysis, once this pullback is complete, it presents a favorable buying opportunity. My target for this trade is 1.120. Depending on your strategy, you may opt to wait for the completion of the pullback and the formation of a (FVG) candle on the 1-hour chart before taking action." If you need further assistance or have any specific questions, feel free to ask!
Long
by somayehbasiri
Gold Spot Price Consolidation & Resistance ZoneThis 15-minute chart of Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) from FOREXCOM shows a period of price consolidation within a highlighted resistance zone. Key observations include: 1. Resistance & Support Levels: The price is moving within a range-bound zone between approximately $3,141.33 (support) and $3,166.24 (resistance). The red rectangle marks the consolidation zone, indicating price rejection at the upper boundary. 2. Price Action: A bullish trend preceded this consolidation, suggesting possible accumulation or distribution. Price briefly broke above the resistance but retraced, signaling potential weakness. 3. Possible Scenarios: A breakout above $3,166.24 with strong volume could lead to further upside momentum. A break below $3,141.33 may indicate bearish continuation towards lower support levels.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ChartingMarketInsights
EURUSD - what’s next?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. After making such a huge upside move, we are expecting EURUSD to have some sort of a correction or a pullback to the downside. After that we got a sell off on EURUSD and just today we hit the 50% correction level at around 1.08442 . After failing to break to the upside we can expect more sells to be in play. Any breaks to the downside from the current price will confirm this. Although TVC:DXY is not as strong at the moment, it still is a global reserve currency . We seen that in play last week when we saw massive upside on OANDA:XAUUSD and on TVC:DXY . We must understand that investors are also pouring their money into DXY as it is a global reserve currency. I still personally believe TVC:DXY holds more strength against TVC:EXY hence why I am still looking to short the pair. Scenario 1: SELLS from current price With the instant sell, we are risking a possible pullback and continuations to the upside however, DXY is looking like it will reverse. Failing to break to the upside can also be taken as a confirmation for potential sells. Scenario 2: BUYS at the break of the Key Level (around 1.085) With the break to the upside, we can expect more buys to come in play possibly targeting previous highs on EURUSD at around 1.09444. KEY NOTES - DXY possible reversal to the upside. - Breaks above the KL and to the upside would confirm higher highs. - EURUSD has completed the 50% correction to the upside. - DXY is the global reserve currency. Happy trading! FxPocket
Short
by FxPocket
Eurusd outlookThis chart represents a technical analysis of EUR/USD on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting key support and resistance levels. Key Analysis: Resistance Level: Marked around 1.09500, this level serves as a potential selling zone where price may struggle to break higher. Support Level: Identified near 1.08000, this is a demand area where buying pressure may emerge. Current Price: EUR/USD is trading at approximately 1.09183, near the resistance zone. Expected Price Movement: The analysis suggests a potential rejection from resistance, leading to a downward move toward the support zone. Outlook: The market structure indicates a possible bearish retracement from resistance. If the price fails to break above 1.09500, a short-selling opportunity may arise with a target around 1.08000. However, if the resistance is broken, further upside momentum could be expected.
Short
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
EUR/USD: Breakdown Amidst Euro Surge on German Fiscal StimulusThe EUR/USD currency pair has recently experienced significant movements influenced by both technical patterns and fundamental developments. Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD pair has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. However, recent price action indicates a breach below the channel’s lower boundary, suggesting potential bearish momentum. This breakdown could signal a trend reversal or a corrective phase, with the next support level identified around 1.06339. Traders should monitor this level closely, as a sustained move below it may confirm further downside potential. Fundamental Analysis: The euro has surged, marking its most substantial weekly gain against the dollar since 2009. This appreciation is largely attributed to Germany’s announcement of a historic fiscal stimulus package aimed at bolstering the Eurozone’s economic recovery. In contrast, the U.S. dollar has weakened due to escalating trade tensions and concerns over the economic implications of aggressive trade policies under President Trump. Investors are increasingly favoring the euro, reflecting optimism about the Eurozone’s growth prospects compared to the uncertain U.S. economic outlook.
Short
by parraggon
1
Eurusd sell zoneThis is a EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar) 1-hour timeframe technical analysis from FXCM, showing a sell trade setup with the following key details: 1. Entry Point: Around 1.05112, marked in yellow. 2. Stop Loss: Placed at 1.05690 (red zone), indicating the level where the trade will be exited if the price moves against the setup. 3. Target Level: 1.03978, shown in blue, representing the expected price drop and profit target. 4. Market Outlook: The analysis suggests a potential bearish move, with price expected to decline from the entry point, retrace slightly, and then drop further to hit the target. 5. Risk-Reward Ratio: The trade setup has a favorable risk-reward structure, with the potential reward being larger than the risk. This setup is based on the expectation that EUR/USD will reverse from resistance and move downward, making it a short (sell) trade opportunity.
Short
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
MY analysis on Gold in 1H chart its again downwords gold xauusd is in downword we can take sell positions for some time as it almost touches the EMA200 and again going downwords . Key Observations: Downtrend Channel Breakout: The price was previously in a descending channel (marked in blue). A breakout to the upside occurred, signaling a potential reversal or retracement. 200 EMA Resistance (Blue Line at ~2897): The price approached the 200 EMA, which is a strong dynamic resistance. The rejection at this level (highlighted by the red arrow) suggests selling pressure. Bearish Rejection (Yellow Circle & Red Arrow): A wick at the 200 EMA shows that buyers attempted to push higher but faced resistance. This could be a sign of a potential trend continuation to the downside. Potential Downside Target (Blue & Red Zones): A short-term support zone is marked in blue, where price might retest. A larger support block (red zone) indicates a deeper pullback if bearish momentum continues. Volume Increasing: Volume is rising, which could indicate stronger price action, whether continuation or reversal. Possible Trading Scenarios: Bearish Case (Most Likely): If price continues to reject the 200 EMA, it could drop toward the red support zone (~2,860-2,870). A break below this level could lead to further downside. Bullish Case (Less Likely): If price reclaims the 200 EMA and holds above it, it could target the next resistance zone (~2,920). Conclusion: Bias: Bearish below 200 EMA unless price breaks above. Potential Trade: Watch for a retest of the blue zone for a possible short entry targeting the red support block. Would you like an entry/exit plan based on this setup?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KingProTrader
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA). Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low). Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend. Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support. Fundamental Analysis: Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD: Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious. Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone. Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany. European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_