EUR JPY TRADE SET UP EUR JPY falling wedge pattern.
We had a break and retest and exhausted at the lower timeframe based on candlesticks formations on the retest level
Eurusddaily
EUR/USD Under 1.0900 Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes EUR/USD faces pressure from a stronger US Dollar, hovering near 1.0941, down 0.02%. Daily indicators suggest a potential downtrend continuation if it breaks below 1.0920. On the 4-hour chart, recovery is uneven from oversold levels, with potential further decline under 1.0920. Economic data and FOMC minutes await, as market sentiment remains cautious amid economic slowdown signals and risk aversion.
EUR/USD: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market..EUR/USD Embarks on 2024: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market Sentiments
As the European session opens its doors to 2024, EUR/USD treads cautiously, marking modest declines below 1.1008. The immediate technical outlook suggests a potential extension of the ongoing correction, while market participants exercise caution, refraining from substantial commitments in anticipation of pivotal macroeconomic data releases scheduled later in the week.
December Triumphs and Dollar Dynamics:
EUR/USD showcased resilience throughout December, securing gains of over 1% and achieving a second consecutive month of positive momentum. This upward surge was fueled by a weakening appetite for the US Dollar (USD) as investors speculated about an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, possibly in March. In contrast, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers stood firm on their non-committal stance regarding any policy pivot, underscoring the premature nature of such considerations.
Technical Insights and Bullish Channel:
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to navigate within a bullish channel. Presently positioned within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci area, the currency pair presents an intriguing opportunity for a potential pullback. Analysts eye a continuation of the bullish trend, envisioning a swing setup unfolding in the upcoming sessions.
Anticipated Data Releases and Market Focus:
In the unfolding day, market attention gravitates towards S&P Global's imminent release of revised December Manufacturing PMI figures for Germany, the Euro area, and the US. These anticipated data points hold the promise of offering crucial insights into the economic performance of key regions, shaping market sentiments in the process.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.09290 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
Bears Roar and Bulls Hesitate EUR/USDEUR/USD Bears Take Control, Slamming through Monthly Resistance at 1.11392! No Reversal Signals Yet, but Stay Alert for Post-Holiday Surprises. The Deciding Factor? Keep an Eye on This Week's FOMC Meetings and Data Drops!
DISCLAIMER: The ideas presented here are speculative. Users should exercise caution, employ proper risk management, and conduct their own research before making any trading or investment decisions. This information is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
EURUSD Expected to go sideways todayThe euro's dance with the US dollar last Thursday painted a curious picture - a spirited attempt to soar, only to stumble in the face of market fatigue, as if gravity suddenly remembered its role in the financial theater.
This fatigue is not a solo act; it has accomplices. The Euro's recent appreciation has exceeded its limits, like a rubber band being stretched too far. And the timing? Well, this is not only a festive season but also a season of financial scarcity. Liquidity tends to play hide and seek during this time of year, leaving the market feeling a bit dry.
The market's recent trajectory has been like a rocket's flight - a surge that now appears to be paused in mid-air. This vacation isn't just about relaxing; It was a sigh of relief that echoed throughout the boardroom and trading floor.
Oh, the holiday season! Nestled amidst the echoes of Christmas and the countdown to the New Year, this is the time when market dynamics take on a different tune. Famous traders, like children eagerly waiting for the last fireworks to go off before the show's finale, choose to sit this one out. There was a unanimous decision to stay trading for a while, thanks to the ongoing holiday mood.
EUR/USD Nears 1.1050 Closure for 2023Technical Outlook:
The EUR/USD rate lingers around 1.1050, swinging between the 50-hour and 200-hour SMAs as 2023 draws to a close.
Post-holiday trading will transition into an extended break after the New Year, with EUR/USD finding technical support from the 200-hour SMA just above 1.1000.
Daily candlesticks reflect an overbought scenario as the Euro retreats from Thursday's multi-month high near 1.1150. The 50-day SMA converges toward the 200-day SMA around 1.0850. Technical indicators, including the 14-day RSI, hint at a potential pullback from overbought conditions.
The restrained movement of EUR/USD near 1.1050 signals cautious market sentiments, with indicators suggesting a possible retreat despite recent highs. This shift may influence early market trends in the new year.
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year !
"EUR/USD Dips Below 1.1100 Amid Year-End Volatility"EUR/USD faced challenging retracements on Thursday as thin holiday trading stirred volatility around the final trading day of 2023.
The Euro (EUR) swiftly climbed to a 21-week high of 1.1140 early on Thursday as broader markets continued to shed the US Dollar (USD) on expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, market over-expectations regarding the Fed's structural pivot played out well before today, and the uptick in the 7-year US Treasury yields triggered a retreat to the safe-haven USD, pushing riskier assets like the Euro back into the red on the last trading day of 2023.
Initial US unemployment claims for the week ending December 22 also rose, indicating 218 thousand new claims compared to the previous week's adjusted 206 thousand. Additionally, pending home sales in the US for November fell short of market expectations, holding at 0.0% and missing the market forecast of a 1.0% recovery from October's adjusted -1.5% decline.
As the year concludes, the EUR/USD forex pair grapples with market dynamics influenced by shifting expectations, economic data, and ongoing global uncertainties. Traders are closely monitoring these factors as they navigate the currency markets in anticipation of the new year.
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100, Eyes US Employment Data EUR/USD extends its upward momentum beyond the psychological level of 1.1100 during the Asian session on Thursday. The US dollar's overall weakness provides some support for the major currency pair, despite the rebound in US Treasury bond yields. Attention is now focused on mid-range US employment data.
EUR/USD has confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000 and quickly reached the 1.1100 mark. The pair peaked at 1.1122 before retracing modestly. The upward trend persists, although technical indicators are overbought across most timeframes. The trend remains strong and resilient, though some consolidation seems likely.
On the 4-hour chart, the trend is bullish. However, technical signals suggest some accumulation may occur ahead of the Asian trading session, potentially ranging between 1.1110 and 1.1080. The 1.1050 region has become a relevant support area, followed by the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1030. Below 1.0980, the short-term trend may turn neutral. Corrections could be viewed as buying opportunities, keeping downsides limited.
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100 Despite Overbought SignalsEUR/USD extended its rise above 1.1100 in the Asian session on Thursday, supported by a weaker US dollar. Despite overbought technical indicators, the pair confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000. The upward trend remains strong, with potential consolidation between 1.1110 and 1.1080. Key support lies at 1.1050, followed by the 20-period SMA at 1.1030. Corrections may present buying opportunities, with downside risks limited below 1.0980.
EUR/USD Analysis: Post-Christmas InsightsOur technical outlook for EUR/USD remains unchanged as we await shifts in performance, likely to occur with the return of investors and market activity post the holiday season. Currently, examining the daily chart, there's a discernible upward trend in the pair's performance, holding steady around and above the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. If the weakness in the US dollar persists, the currency pair may find opportunities for further recovery.
From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.1065 and 1.1120. Beyond these levels, technical indicators may start leaning towards overbought conditions. Conversely, within the same timeframe, a retracement to the support level of 1.0880 is crucial for the bearish camp to regain control and disrupt the current upward momentum. Stay tuned for market developments as we navigate the dynamics in the post-holiday trading environment.
AUD Falls from Yearly Highs Amidst US Core PCE Data ReleaseThe Australian Dollar experienced a notable surge as the US Dollar dipped close to its monthly lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia will assess additional data to shape future monetary policy decisions. Softened data from the US reinforces expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy in early 2024, with Q3 annual GDP and QoQ core PCE dropping by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively.
The Australian Dollar is currently trading below the psychological resistance level at 0.6800, having peaked at 0.6802 on Friday. Widely shared bullish sentiment suggests the potential for the AUD/USD pair to surpass recent highs and target a significant resistance level at 0.6850. On the flip side, key support levels are identified at 0.6750, ahead of the seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6740. A breach below this crucial support zone may guide the AUD/USD pair towards the psychological support at 0.6700, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6679.
Positive Outlook for EUR/USD in the Coming YearThe swifter interest rate cuts in the United States compared to elsewhere signal a more pronounced weakening of the dollar. The U.S. interest rate reductions are also expected to bolster the global economy, commodity and energy prices, as well as risk sentiment. Consequently, risk-sensitive currencies like NOK and SEK are anticipated to perform well in the near future. However, there are numerous uncertainties on the horizon, including underlying government debt issues, the U.S. Presidential election, and geopolitical challenges. Many of these factors could potentially strengthen the USD beyond our initial predictions.
EUR/USD Rises Above 1.1000 Amid Dollar Weakness and ECB SupportThe EUR/USD pair shows modest gains, reaching its highest level in four months during the early hours of Asian trading on Friday. The weakened U.S. dollar and the European Central Bank's hawkish stance have bolstered this currency pair. Trading around 1.1008, the main currency pair has increased by 0.05% for the day. The EUR/USD rate is poised to close at its highest daily level since early August on Thursday but still remains below the psychological 1.1000 level. From a technical perspective, breaking above 1.1000 could open the door for further upward movement. However, considering current market conditions, the timing for a breakout may not be ideal for Euro bulls. Technical indicators on the daily chart lean towards an upward bias, indicating a potential breakout. The Euro's prospects will weaken with a daily close below 1.0870.
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators do not align with the daily chart's upward movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sideways and poised to turn downward, momentum is weak, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) does not provide clear signals. However, the price remains above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). As long as it stays above 1.0950, the odds favor the 1.1000 breakout. A dip below that level would weaken the Euro in the short term, indicating the next support level at 1.0910. EUR/USD rose on Thursday towards the 1.1000 level, driven by the dollar's recent weakness, despite higher bond yields. Contradictory economic data from the U.S. precedes crucial consumer inflation data scheduled for Friday.
U.S. data reveals a decline in the Philly Fed Index, a revised Q3 GDP decrease from 5.2% to 4.9%, and Initial Jobless Claims showing little change from the previous week. On Friday, the preferred inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) Index, is due, with an expected 0.2% increase for November.
Market participants will closely scrutinize U.S. inflation figures, which could impact the U.S. dollar, currently under pressure despite a rebound in U.S. yields. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose from recent lows to 3.90%. EUR/USD continues to benefit from a weaker U.S. dollar, but the upward momentum seems restricted in thin market conditions.
💡 EURUSD: Forecast December 20EURUSD price action hasn't changed much, we see the price still trading around the daily and weekly resistance zones. Currently there is no signal of price reduction so it is impossible to sell.
For the time being, please continue to monitor this current resistance area. If the price forms a nice sell-down signal or in a low time frame you see the price changing trend, you can also consider it. sellable.
EUR/USD Hurdles at 1.0800, Eyes on Fed's DecisionIn the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, EUR/USD continues to face resistance below the 1.0800 level. The market adopts a cautious stance, awaiting the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data and key policy announcements from the Federal Reserve later in the day. The EUR/USD pair finds support from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and encounters resistance from the 200-day SMA. Despite attempts to breach the 1.0800 level, the pair swiftly retraces. On the daily chart, conflicting technical indicators reflect recent sideways movements, with the 20-day SMA at 1.0870 adjusting downwards.
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Momentum indicators are trending higher, and the price remains above the 20-day SMA. However, the Euro appears to be restrained without strong conviction. Short-term risks are on the rise, holding above the 1.0770 level. A sustained rise and stability above 1.0805 would reinforce short-term prospects for a more lucrative scenario, targeting levels above 1.0830.
EURUSD SELLHello, According to my analysis of the EUR/USD pair, the market seems to be in a negative state, especially with the break of the ascending channel. We also notice that the price returned to test the channel. There is also a strong correction on the Fibonacci golden ratio of 61%. Good luck everyone
EUR/USD Range-Bound around 1.0760 Ahead of US CPI DataThe EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.0760 at the start of the Asian trading session on Tuesday. Traders prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of key events in the US and the Eurozone. The pair is hovering around 1.0764, unchanged for the day. The EUR/USD exchange rate is trading near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). On the daily chart, the risk remains tilted to the downside, consistent with technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to move south, well below the 30 levels, and momentum is stable below the midline.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair also shows a bearish trend, with prices below the 20-period SMA and within a descending channel. The RSI and Momentum indicators are not providing clear signals. If the pair rises above 1.0780, it will break the channel and surpass the 20-period SMA, improving short-term prospects for the Euro, aiming for the resistance zone around 1.0800/1.0805. At that level, the next relevant resistance is at 1,0845. On the downside, the exchange rate is expected to weaken further, with a decline below 1.0740, where the next support level is 1.0715, and below that, the pair may find support around 1.0690. The EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0741 and then rebounded to the 1.0765 area amid limited price action on a quiet Monday. The US Dollar Index recorded a slight increase, supported by higher Treasury yields as investors await important economic reports and central bank meetings.
On Tuesday, the ZEW survey is expected to show a decline in economic sentiment indices for the Eurozone and Germany in December. The focus will then shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, with no expected changes in interest rates, and discussions expected to revolve around reinvestment from the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) and minimum reserve requirements.
In the US, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Tuesday. CPI is expected to show a monthly inflation increase of 0.1% in November, with the core CPI at 0.3%. Yearly CPI is expected to be at 3.1%, compared to 3.2% recorded in October. These figures are unlikely to change expectations for the Federal Reserve's next decision. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will begin on Tuesday, and the announcement on Wednesday may cause some surprises. The focus will be on new forecasts.
The US Dollar Index has risen but remains below last week's highs, driven by the rise in USD/JPY rates due to higher yields. The market is currently in a consolidation phase, waiting for the next catalyst.
Rewrite a fresh article in English based on the available content, ensuring it is not duplicated with any other articles.
EURUSD → Nearing Support! Is it Time to Long!? Let's Answer.EURUSD rejected nicely off of the Resistance Zone at 1.10 and fell to 1.07300! If you shorted at the Resistance Zone per my last analysis, hold that short! It's reasonable to take profits here around 1:1 Risk/Reward and swing the latter half, but will we make it to the bottom?
How do we trade this? 🤔
If you're not currently in a trade, I would wait until the price falls closer to the Support Zone and bounces or wait for it to break Resistance and long above it. Look to enter a long in the 1.06 area if a strong bull signal and confirmation plays out and trade a 1:2 Risk/Reward taking profit just shy of the Resistance Zone. Your protective stop should be below the Support Zone giving you a clear 1:2 Risk/Reward!
💡 Trade Idea 💡
Long Entry: 1.05800
🟥 Stop Loss: 104.100
✅ Take Profit: 1.09200
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2
🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Rejection at the Resistance Zone, Run Short to 1.06.
3. Look for Support at Support Zone 1.054.
4. Look for Reversal Pattern, Bull Signal and Confirmation.
5. RSI at 45.00 far below Moving Average, Bias to Short.
⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!
Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
EUR/USD Rebounds from Multi-Week Lows, Trading Above 1.0750EUR/USD faced significant downward pressure, dropping to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday following a stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. However, weekend flows helped the currency pair recover some daily losses. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is higher but remains below 50, indicating a lack of recovery momentum. The pair needs a decisive move above 1.0820 (Simple Moving Average 200-day, Fibonacci retracement level of the latest uptrend) to establish it as support and extend its recovery towards 1.0860 (static level, 50-day SMA) and 1.0900 (Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%, 100-day SMA).
On the flip side, 1.0760 (Fibonacci retracement level of 50%, 200-day SMA) is considered a crucial support level before 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%).
EUR/USD benefited from the broad-based weakness of the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, registering a daily increase for the first time since November 28. On Friday morning, the pair stabilized just below 1.0800 as market participants were cautious ahead of the US NFP report.
Positive changes in risk sentiment made it challenging for the USD to find demand in the latter part of Thursday, pushing EUR/USD higher.
The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for November is expected to increase by 180,000. A figure above 200,000 could force investors to reassess the timing of potential policy changes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and boost the USD initially. On the other hand, a disappointing figure below 150,000 could make it difficult for the USD to stay resilient against its counterparts heading into the weekend.
Meanwhile, annual wage inflation is expected to decrease to 4% from 4.1% in October, and the unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 3.9%.
The US economic calendar will also feature the preliminary December Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan. However, investors may overlook this report while scrutinizing labor market data.
EUR/USD Rebounds from Multi-Week Lows, Trading Above 1.0750EUR/USD faced significant downward pressure, dropping to its weakest level in three weeks below 1.0750 on Friday after stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. However, weekend flows helped the pair recover losses, erasing the daily downturn. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has risen but remains below 50, indicating a lack of strong recovery momentum. The pair needs a decisive move above 1.0820 (200-day Simple Moving Average, Fibonacci retracement level of the latest uptrend) to use it as support and extend its recovery towards 1.0860 (static level, 50-period SMA) and 1.0900 (Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6%, 100-period SMA).
On the downside, 1.0760 (Fibonacci retracement level of 50%, 200-period SMA) is considered a crucial support level before 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8%). EUR/USD benefited from the broad weakness of the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, recording a daily gain for the first time since November 28th. On Friday, the pair stabilized just below 1.0800 as market participants hesitated to take significant positions ahead of the US November employment report.
Positive changes in risk sentiment made it challenging for the USD to find demand in the latter half of Thursday, pushing EUR/USD higher. The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is expected to show an increase of 180,000 jobs in November. A figure above 200,000 could prompt investors to reassess the timing of potential policy changes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and bolster the USD initially. On the other hand, a disappointing figure below 150,000 could weaken the USD against its counterparts at the end of the week.
Meanwhile, annual wage inflation is anticipated to decrease to 4% from October's 4.1%, and the unemployment rate is predicted to remain unchanged at 3.9%. The US economic calendar will also include the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for December. However, investors may overlook this report while focusing on scrutinizing labor market data details.
USD/JPY Stable Below 147.45 Ahead of US ADP ReportThe US Dollar maintains a modest bid in early European trading, with the USD/JPY pair trading narrowly below the 147.45 resistance level. The downtrend has persisted above 147.00 so far. The USD staged a mild recovery from Monday's lows but faced resistance at 147.45, leading to a measured downward trend on Tuesday. Investor caution ahead of key US employment data has supported the reversal in favor of the Japanese Yen.
Speculation is growing that the Fed has completed its interest rate hikes, and the US central bank is anticipated to commence rate cuts in March, weighing on the US Dollar. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is expected to step away from extremely loose monetary policies in the coming months. This, coupled with risk aversion in the market, is offsetting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen.
On the economic calendar, today's foundation-setting events include the US ISM Services and JOLTs Job Openings, laying the groundwork for Wednesday's ADP and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls – key events of the week.
From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart illustrates the pair trading within a descending wedge pattern, descending from November's peak. Price action remains below the primary SMA, and the RSI has dipped below the midpoint, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend.
Next support levels are at 146.30 and 146.00, while resistance levels at 147.45 and 148.50, previously mentioned, represent the 38.2% retracement of the November-December decline.
EUR/USD Sees Modest Uptick Around 1.0770 Ahead of Eurozone GDPThe EUR/USD pair experienced a modest uptick in early Asian trading on Thursday. However, the upward trend of this currency pair may face limitations due to the recent demand for the US Dollar and weaker-than-expected data from the Eurozone. The major currency pair is trading around the 1.0770 level, marking a 0.08% increase for the day. The EUR/USD exchange rate continues its decline, with the daily chart indicating the potential for further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is confidently pointing south, and the Momentum has just crossed below the midpoint, two days after the price fell below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair is testing levels below the 100-day SMA and remains below the 200-day SMA, signaling bearish prospects.
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD is still within a downtrend channel and comfortably distant from the lower boundary, suggesting further potential for a price decline. Breaking above the 1.0800 level would alleviate some downward pressure, but the Euro needs to rise above 1.0825 to negate the short-term bearish trend. A clear break below 1,0760 may find support around 1.0735/40, followed by a potential temporary recovery thereafter.
EUR/USD Extends Decline Below 1.0800 MarkThe EUR/USD pair continues to face selling pressure below the psychological level of 1.0800 in the early Asian trading session on Wednesday. Optimistic Eurozone PMI data for November failed to inspire the Euro, given the persistent weakness in demand in the Eurozone region. The EUR/USD exchange rate found support at the 100-day SMA at 1,0775, with this mentioned level being tested, and a lower daily close would indicate further weakness. Prices are below the 20-day and 200-day SMAs, and daily chart technical indicators continue to signal a downtrend. Below 1,0770, the next significant support level stands at 1,0690 (trendline, 55-day SMA).
On the 4-hour chart, the currency pair is moving with a bearish trend. Technical indicators are in oversold territory, suggesting potential consolidation before a possible deeper decline. Strong short-term negative momentum may persist below 1.0850. To reverse the negative selling trend, the Euro must rise and maintain levels above 1.0915.
As the EUR/USD pair faces ongoing challenges, market participants are closely monitoring key support levels and technical indicators for potential shifts in sentiment and price dynamics.
