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Eurusddaily

EUR/USD Under Pressure Post-Disappointing US Data"EUR/USD struggles to find direction on Friday, hovering within a narrow range just below 1.0700. US Consumer Sentiment, falling to 60.4 in November from October's 63.8, adds pressure. Wall Street trades in the red after Thursday's decline, impacting USD demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50 as EUR/USD slips below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating short-term downside prospects. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
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EURUSD: Fed funds futures project rate cut in 2024, EUR/USD hitsRecent data indicates that the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the FOMC have noted a decrease in the anticipated reduction in federal funds rates for 2024. Forecasts were at 100 basis points (bps) last week, but this week they have decreased to 76 bps, which is in line with pre-Fed data. The FOMC is continuing to oppose dovish pricing while attempting to maintain the possibility of a rate hike. In spite of these efforts, only 23% of experts now believe that interest rates will rise at the next meeting on January 31, 2024. The EUR/USD currency rate dropped to its lowest point since the release of the most recent non-farm payrolls data in tandem with these market developments. Meanwhile, the US 2-year bond
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by Chart_MasterPro
The ECB needs to keep interest rates above the 4% threshold to "IMF Europe Director Alfred Comer warned the ECB that if it does not cut interest rates soon, it will be forced to tighten monetary policy more costly later. The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo: AFP/TTXVN) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on November 8 that rapid wage growth in the euro zone could push inflation further higher. The European Central Bank (ECB) should therefore keep interest rates at record levels next year to "ease" price pressures. Last month, the ECB broke its record of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes. Markets are therefore predicting that the bank's next move could be a rate cut in April.
Long
by AstronautPioneer
The recent depreciation of the euro/dollar is expected to continThe majority of foreign exchange strategists expect the recent decline in the US dollar to continue throughout the year. The main driver for major currencies for the rest of 2023 is likely to be economic indicators. A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and rising Treasury yields caused the dollar, which had been rising against other currencies, to fall. This comes on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will end its rate hikes, sending the dollar down nearly 2% from last month's highs. Analysts expect the current dollar trend to continue. Almost two-thirds, or 28 out of 45 analysts, believe the dollar is likely to remain below current levels against major currencies by the end of the year. We also expect it to weaken against the euro and other G10 currencies over the next 12 months. Analyst and Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman said: ``The dollar and US yields have been on a strong upward trend over the past two to three months... but we seem to have reached a point where yields and the US dollar peak.'' ” he said. At MUFG, he said: He added that the market is increasingly confident the Fed will complete its rate hikes, making it difficult for yields to reach new highs this year. Recent labor market data shows the U.S. economy is still outperforming other economies, but it's starting to show signs of stress from interest rate hikes over the past year and a half. Still, currency speculators remain mostly net buyers of the dollar, indicating continued support for the dollar. Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe, explained that the dollar remained tactically long, especially compared to currencies with weaker fundamentals. The eurozone economy shrank by 0.1% last quarter, but the euro is expected to grow by about 4.0% over the next 12 months.
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by AstronautPioneer
EURUSD: European stock futures higher; BOE decisionThursday is expected to see a stronger opening for European stock markets after Wall Street saw a big increase on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates. After the US Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting, investors grew more confident that the next move in US interest rates would be a decrease rather than an increase. European stocks are predicted to carry on the strong momentum on Wall Street overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%. As was largely anticipated, the Fed held interest rates constant on Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell did not explicitly commit to the concept of another rate hike, however, in his remarks. Back in Europe, it was the turn of the Bank of England to make its most recent monetary policy announcement at
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by TrategySherpa
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Eurusd Sell Analysis For Today EUR/USD made a sharp U-turn in the American session on Wednesday and closed modestly higher after falling toward 1.0500 earlier in the day. The pair preserved its recovery momentum and advanced to the 1.0600 area in the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar came under heavy selling pressure late Wednesday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) failed to convince markets that they could still opt for one more rate increase in December. The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% as anticipated and the policy statement read that policymakers will take a range of economic factors into account when determining the extent of possible additional policy firming. In the post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from confirming a no change in the policy rate this year but acknowledged that rising bond yields were causing financial conditions to tighten.
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by FxAlena
EUR/USD Could Rise Back Towards 1.0650/1.0675"Despite negative data from the Eurozone (weaker growth and confidence, lower inflation), the calm Dollar environment warns that EUR/USD could rise again. The range of 1.0520 to 1.0700 appears to be the new short-term range, and EUR/USD might climb towards 1.0650/1.0675, possibly triggered by the US unemployment claims announcement. The data calendar is light, but attention is on the speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. We anticipate he may hint at another rate hike in December, although the current forex market already fully prices in any further ECB tightening measures.
by Gwen_Humuna
EURUSD: European stock futures edged higherTuesday's opening of European stock markets is anticipated to be higher as investors digest more corporate earnings in advance of the publication of significant growth and inflation data in the area, overshadowing China's dismal activity statistics. While consumer prices are predicted to rise 3.1% annually in October, down from 4.3% the previous month, the gross domestic product is only likely to grow by 0.2% annually in the third quarter, down from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter.
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by TrategySherpa
EUR/USD: Defensive Ahead of Eurozone CPI Data"The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on previous positive moves and trades with slight bearish momentum in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the spot price attempts to hold above the key level of 1.0600 and remains contingent on the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD). The tightening stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD's appeal for low-priced buying, thus acting as a resistance for the EUR/USD pair. This, coupled with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may not raise rates further, contributes to limiting the spot price. This sentiment was reaffirmed by data showing Germany's consumer inflation slowed down from 4.3% YoY to 3.0% in October, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This decline comes amid looming economic recession risks, indicating the end of the ECB's rate hike cycle. In contrast, markets are evaluating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates once again in 2023. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance given the challenging US economic recovery and persisting inflation. Thus, the focus will remain on the outcomes of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting. The US central bank will announce its decision on Wednesday, and many anticipate it will maintain the status quo in its second consecutive meeting. Meanwhile, market participants will seek signals about the Fed's future rate hike path, impacting the USD's price dynamics and creating new momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, Tuesday's release of Eurozone flash CPI data will be scrutinized for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macroeconomic data - Chicago PMI and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index."
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%). On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier. Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September. Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook. In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates." In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
by Gwen_Humuna
EURUSD: ECB pauses interest rate hike as inflation shows signs The European Central Bank (ECB) declared that it will no longer be increasing interest rates as a result of a decrease in lending and declining inflation. Boris Vujcic, a member of the ECB Council, made the statement on Croatian state media, HRT1. President Christine Lagarde's ECB recently halted its extraordinary tightening campaign, keeping interest rates steady for the first time in almost a year. The inflation rate for the euro zone is expected to drop to 3.1% this month from its peak of 10.6% in October 2022. Recent estimates of the economy's growth are in line with the ECB's 2% target. Commercial lenders have quickly changed the interest rates on loans and mortgages in reaction to these developments. Saver, however, feels less of an influence from these adjustments.
Short
by TrategySherpa
EUR/USD Nears 1.0500 Amid ECB Focus"In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD remains defensive, hovering around 1.0560, the lowest in a week, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The currency pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from monthly highs. Support was found around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Daily chart technical indicators paint a mixed picture, with momentum hovering around the midpoint but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south. The pair is currently testing support around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a bearish trend. The primary support is the upward trendline around 1.0550. As long as the price stays above that level, the Euro's recovery potential remains intact. However, breaking below could incur additional losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. To shift the technical outlook to bullish, the Euro needs to rise above 1.0610.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data. The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760. Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase. The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment. Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Steady Amid Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD maintains a higher level but remains below 1.0600 in Wednesday's Asian trading. Risk sentiment prevails, weighing on the US Dollar, especially amid positive data from China. Market focus is on Lagarde's speech and EU/US data. The EUR/USD rate has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which still slopes downward. The Momentum indicator is above 100, signaling positivity for the Euro, though the overall trend remains bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the price is well-supported and above key SMAs, with technical indicators indicating an uptrend. The current resistance level is around 1.0600, and a breach could draw attention to 1.0630. Closing above this level daily would pave the way for further gains. Conversely, dropping below 1.0540 could weaken the Euro, pushing it towards 1.0500. EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, defying positive US data and higher Treasury yields. The pair reached a high of 1.0595 before retracing. ZEW's survey shows positive signs in the region, with the Eurozone's economic sentiment index improving to 2.3 from -8.9 in October, beating market expectations. Germany's ZEW also recovered from -11.4 to -1.1, surpassing the market's consensus of -9. Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting, expected to keep rates unchanged for the first time since June 2022. On Tuesday, optimistic US economic data included Retail Sales (up 0.7% in September, compared to the expected 0.3%) and Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0%). The US Dollar briefly gained from this data but quickly lost momentum. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0540 but then reversed its uptrend. Both US and European bond yields surged, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.86% from 2.60%, and Germany's equivalent yield increased from 3.40% to 2.88%. Bond markets continued to experience significant fluctuations. If Eurozone rates follow Treasury yields, the impact might be offset, as seen on Tuesday. However, robust US data could limit EUR/USD's upward potential. On Wednesday, Housing Permits, Building Permits, and the Beige Book by the Fed are due. Stay tuned for updates on this dynamic market scenario.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EURUSD and future cooperation predictionsAccording to Politico sources, the deal would impose tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. The agreement creates a "club of like-minded economies" and aims to impose tariffs on imports from economies deemed to provide subsidies to key sectors such as steel and clean technology. It is said that The US and EU are still negotiating plans to create this "global club" as a solution to transatlantic disputes over aluminum and steel. These tensions date back to the era of former US President Donald Trump. In 2018, Trump imposed high tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from around the world, including the European Union, for national security reasons. According to the EU proposal, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seeks to get closer to the US to overcome the dispute, with the aim of presenting a united transatlantic front against China. ing. Kwok.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
The EU plans an anti-subsidy investigation to secure a steel deaThe conduct of an anti-subsidy investigation against steel manufacturers will be announced at a summit with the US on October 20. InternationalEU plans an anti-subsidy investigation to secure a steel agreement with My Phuong Nhi • October 11, 2023 19:19 The conduct of an anti-subsidy investigation with steel manufacturers will be announced at a summit peak with the US on October 20. Recently, the European Union (EU) said it is planning an anti-subsidy investigation against steel manufacturers in China and other countries. This is part of an agreement with the United States to end tariffs under former US President Donald Trump, Reuters reported on October 10. The Financial Times reported that the EU planned to announce the investigations, shortly after the meeting of US President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles on September 1. October 20 is here.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro