Eurusddaily
EURUSD bouncing off major support, remain bullishBuy above 1.0853. Stop loss at 1.0787. Take profit at 1.0948.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has started to bounce off our buying area perfectly. The plan today is to remain bullish above 1.0853 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support) for a push up to 1.0948 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above 2% where we expect a bounce from.
Correlation analysis: EURUSD and USDCHF are negatively correlated, meaning they usually move in opposite directions. We’re expecting a drop in USDCHF which goes in line with the rise we expect on EURUSD.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event driving USD today is the U.S. Advance Retail Sales which is a monthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. We’re expecting a positive value here meaning more consumer spending and confidence, leading to strength in the USD. This would go against our bullish EURUSD view today hence is it best to exercise caution on this trade.
EURUSD remain bearish below strong resistanceSell below 1.0735. Stop loss at 1.0674. Take profit at 1.0776.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has reacted off our selling area perfectly. We remain bearish below major resistance at 1.0735 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop to at least 1.0674 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong resistance below the 98% level where we expect a drop from.
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EURUSD profit target almost reached, prepare to turn bullishBuy above 1.0570. Stop loss at 1.0520. Take profit at 1.0704.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped nicely below our selling area last week and is fast approaching our profit target. We now look to play the bounce above 1.0570 support (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support) for a push up to 1.0704 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance, Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 7.4% level where we expect a bounce from.
EURUSD Daily H&SThe EURUSD Head and Shoulders has been on Forex trend topics for long days.
And the pattern is now formed and it's very clear and well designed.
We just have to understand that the fact that the pattern could break higher the next few days doesn't mean that the EUR will have an easy life above 1.09 resistance zone, there is a lot of resistances up there.
Actually the 1.09 is a major resistance zone and price could even go down again, so we have to be careful with the false break possibility.
The market is chopped inside 1.05/1.15 areas since 2015 February, it's more than 2 years of consolidation (look at Weekly chart).
Therefore, I'll be watching closely this nice H&S the next days, but even if we really break up I can see that we are having a difficult task to go until the top of weekly consolidation (1.1500 big number), a lot of volatility should be expected and that probably will stop out a lot of traders.
EURUSD Is Not Going To ParityTaking a look at the long term cycles you can see that the market took about fifteen years to create the wave from 1985 to 2000. Here we sit at the bottom of the subsequent cycle after that and you have everyone and their mother thinking that the euro 0.09% will go to parity. This has led me to thinking that the sheeple out there are drinking too much of the Kool-Aid and not doing their thinking. So lemme give a taste of contrarian thinking. It might be a little soon to suggest that we are at a major low, but that is how i'm playing it.
As the analysis on this long term chart suggests, the market is due to put in a low that can last for the next seven years. Once this low is established then you will have everyone denying that it is in a strong position to move higher. With that being said this chart has me comfortable to lean on the long side from a position trading standpoint.
The previous wave lasted fifteen years and the current wave is pushing the calendar to over seventeen years which means that the low is over due. Of course there will be those who don't want to read the writing on the wall. Cycles work suggests that the move to parity is overstated. You can also get a sense for this confirmation by looking at the other Euro 0.09% pairs. They are starting to put in major lows from a long term perspective as well.
EURUSD Head and Shoulders FormationTHE BIG PICTURE: This is the daily chart of EURUSD with the reverse head and shoulders pattern. At the moment of this publishing it is still premature to consider the formation complete. The anticipation is to have the market close above the neckline. If this occurs then it sets up for a higher likelihood that the Euro will start to trade toward the 1.1250 target zone. The time to trade it will be once the market can close above the neckline.
THE TECHNICAL STANDPOINT: Once the market is able to close above the neckline then the trade can be triggered somewhere around the 1.08 level with a stop just beneath the right shoulder at about the 1.0480 level. The target based on the measurement of the tip of the head to the neckline measures about four hundred pips. With a risk of about 300 pips and a target of about 400 pips this sets up for a reward risk ratio of about 1.43 to 1
EURUSD profit target reached, time to turn bullishBuy above 1.0572. Stop loss at 1.0543. Take profit at 1.0630.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped perfectly from our selling area yesterday and we close off our profitable bearish position because of the changing elements. We look to buy above 1.0572 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 1.0630 resistance (Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 6% level.
EURUSD Weekly View : Profit target almost reached,remain bullishBuy above 1.0575. Stop loss at 1.0490. Take profit at 1.0680.
Reason for the trading strategy:
Price has shot up and is approaching our profit target. We look to buy on strength above 1.0575 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support, pullback support to descending support line) for a further push up to 1.0680 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
RSI (34) has made a bearish exit signalling a stronger change in momentum and also sees long term bullish divergence.
EURUSD testing major resistance, prepare to turn bearishSell below 1.0627. Stop loss at 1.0681. Take profit at 1.0545.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is now testing major resistance at 1.0627 (major horizontal resistance, Fibonacci retracement) and we expect a drop from this level to at least 1.0545 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support).
RSI (34) is also seeing major resistance below the 65% and 61% area where we hope to see a corresponding drop from.
EURUSD testing major resistance, remain bearishSell below 1.0604. Stop loss at 1.0638. Take profit at 1.0494.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bearish below 1.0604 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to 1.0494 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal support).
RSI (34) is seeing strong descending resistance pushing price down.
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also seeing strong resistance below our 93% level that is pushing price down and displays bearish divergence vs price which is a good precursor of price making a good reversal from here.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The major news item today affecting USD is the Gross Domestic Product (GBP) which measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy's health. If the actual release is better than the forecast, that means it is good for the currency and we can expect USD to strengthen. However, if the actual release is less than the forecast, that means it is bad for USD and we can expect USD to weaken. Our current forecast is for a rise from 1.9% to 2.1% which means we could expect a weaker USD, which goes in line with our bearish EURUSD view.
The other major news event driving the USD today is the U. of Michigan Confidence. It assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. A low or falling University of Michigan Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. We’re expecting a higher value which means a stronger USD, which goes in line with our bearish EURUSD trade today too.
EURUSD dropping perfectly, remain bearishSell below 1.0604. Stop loss at 1.0638. Take profit at 1.0494.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is dropping nicely towards our profit target. We remain bearish below 1.0604 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal overlap resistance) for a further push down to 1.0494 (Fibonacci extension, horizontal support).
RSI (34) is seeing strong descending resistance pushing price down.
Stochastic (55,5,3) is also seeing strong resistance below our 93% level that is pushing price down.
Reason for the trading strategy (fundamentally):
The main news event today is the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. Durable goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly. The headline figure is expressed as a percentage change from previous months. A decrease in this value would mean a weaker USD. Forecasts for this month is expecting a significant rise from last month which means a stronger USD. This goes in line with our bearish EURUSD view.
EURUSD Profit target reached perfectly, time to start buyingBuy above 1.0500. Stop loss at 1.0430. Take profit at 1.0680.
Reason for the trading strategy:
Price dropped nicely and reached our profit target as expected. We now turn bullish above major support at 1.0500 (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci extension, horizontal support) for a push up to 1.6800 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
RSI (34) is displaying bullish divergence versus price which signals a bullish bounce is fast approaching.
EUR/USD - PATIENCE PAYS OFF! Price has hit a key daily resistance zone which was respected and made price have a pullback which we think will be completed at the .618 FIB zone. Will keep an eye out on this pair, after last weeks choppy price action we should be seeing a new trend form to the upside.
If this setups dosent work out than we are looking for the last FIB level of .786
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EURUSD prepare to sell below major resistanceSell below 1.0711. Stop loss at 1.0762. Take profit at 1.0525.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We prepare to sell below major resistance at 1.0711 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) for a push down to 1.0525 support (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing low support).
RSI (34) is approaching strong resistance at 60% where we expect to see a corresponding drop in price too.
EURUSD turn bearish for a push downSell below 1.0585. Stop loss at 1.0660. Take profit at 1.0450.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price remains under heavy downside pressure below 1.0585 resistance (pullback resistance, descending resistance) and we expect price to make a further push down to 1.0450 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).
RSI (34) sees a descending resistance line holding price down.
EURUSD remain bullish tolerating excess for a bounce from hereBuy above 1.0591. Stop loss at 1.0573. Take profit at 1.0713.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price is right on major support at 1.0591 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal support, Fibonacci projection. We hope to see a bounce up from here to at least 1.0713 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, recent swing high resistance).
RSI (34) is seeing strong support at 38% but is also seeing intermediate descending resistance which limits the upside potential.
Stochastic (55,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 3.7% signalling a bounce is impending.