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EUR/USD analysis: Euro to fall below parity on EU gas crisis?Europe's wholesale natural gas price (Dutch Title Transfer Facility TTF ) rose to levels not seen since the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, bolstered by a mixture of continuing supply disruptions from Russia and soaring demand for power generation in the midst of persistent heatwaves across Europe. Gazprom ( GAZP ) announced that European gas prices could increase by 60% this winter, as the company's exports and production continue to fall as a result of Western sanctions. From a macro standpoint, the European gas crisis is wreaking havoc on the economy of the Eurozone and this effect has already been quite visible on the EUR/USD trend in 2022. European and American natural gas price differentials have been widening to their all-time highs, and the EUR/USD currency pair is just 1.7% far from hitting parity again. EUR/USD fundamental analysis: EU/US gas price spread plays a key role According to the most recent NYMEX/CME Group data, US Henry Hub spot prices are currently trading at a $57/MMbtu discount ( THD ) relative to Europe's Dutch TTF benchmark as of mid-August 2022. The link between EUR/USD and Henry Hub-TTF spread has increased significantly over the course of the summer, with the rolling 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.82. This is basically telling us that the lower US natural gas prices trade compared to the European Dutch TFF prices, the stronger the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Along with the economic growth and interest rate disparities between the two regions, the more severe natural gas crisis that Europe is experiencing compared to the United States is now a key macro factor affecting the EUR/USD exchange rate. EUR/USD forecasts: The pair could fall below parity if EU/US gas spread widens further If the European gas crisis worsens in the coming months, the price differential between EU Dutch TTF and US Henry Hub natural gas could widen further, which would likely cause the EUR/USD pair to break decisively below the parity threshold. A de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with a decline in the price of Dutch TTF gas, will be a key factor in preventing a further depreciation of the single currency. However, this second scenario appears much less likely. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
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Eurusd looking longHi everyone in the TradingView community. I am Rana Sarmad I like to share and talk about trading strategies. If you are a member of my subscribers list and like my ideas, please don't hesitate to let me know by hitting that Like button and growing my notification count! We are going to discuss about FX:EURUSD We can see a market break its strong support in D1. So we are expecting a strong rise near support. This is my opinion, I really hope this will be useful for you. This is not a financial advice. Always take trade at your own risk, Be ready and take care your money. Have a great profit ! Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the EMOTT brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence........
Long
by Theranasaramd