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Eurusdfundamentals

Trading Through Turbulence: EUR/USD Strategies Amid U.S. Fiscal The current economic indicators, alongside commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, suggest a cautious approach towards the EUR/USD pair. With the U.S. showing no immediate intent to cut interest rates due to a robust labor market and unresolved inflation targets, traders should prepare for potential dollar strength and volatility in the currency markets. The anticipation of a "hard landing" for the U.S. economy further complicates the landscape, warranting a strategic approach to trading the EUR/USD pair. 1. U.S. Interest Rate Outlook: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's recent statements highlight a significant resistance to cutting interest rates in the near term. The robustness of the U.S. labor market and the economy, coupled with inflation not convincingly on track to meet the 2% target, suggests that the dollar might remain strong. Bostic's remarks underscore the uncertainty surrounding inflation, indicating that the Fed is not yet convinced that inflationary pressures are sufficiently under control to warrant a change in monetary policy. This stance is crucial for EUR/USD traders, as interest rate expectations are a primary driver of currency movements. The Fed's cautious approach may bolster the dollar, creating resistance against EUR gains. 2. Market Reactions and Treasury Movements: The reaction to Bostic’s comments was immediate, with Treasuries falling and holding their decline, reflecting market adjustments to the expectations of continued strong U.S. monetary policy. Conversely, Jupiter Asset Management's move to increase its Treasury holdings to a record suggests a hedging strategy against a potential economic downturn. For EUR/USD traders, these dynamics indicate a flight to safety and potential volatility, with a strong dollar scenario possibly prevailing in the short term. 3. Equity Market Inflows and Implications for the Dollar: Significant inflows into global equity funds, especially following substantial sell-offs in U.S. stocks by Japanese and Chinese funds, hint at a complex investment landscape. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures' rise indicates investor optimism or speculative positioning, potentially impacting the dollar by influencing risk sentiment. For the EUR/USD, this could mean short-term bullish signals for the dollar, especially if equity market strength translates into confidence in the U.S. economy. 4. Inflation Concerns and Labor Market Strength: The anticipated high CPI and potential for a similarly high Producer Price Index (PPI) could extinguish hopes for an interest rate cut, further strengthening the dollar. The persistent strength of the U.S. labor market suggests that inflation may not be easily tamed, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts. For EUR/USD traders, this means monitoring U.S. economic indicators closely, as signs of sustained inflation or labor market overheating could prompt adjustments in trading strategies, favoring the dollar. The EUR/USD trading environment is marked by uncertainty, with a robust U.S. economy and unresolved inflation concerns suggesting a cautious approach. Traders should remain vigilant, adapting strategies to navigate potential volatility and the implications of U.S. monetary policy on currency movements.
Short
by Wiiso
2
EURUSD Downtrend. The trend retest in 1.06128 at 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement level. A possible downtrend to 1.04824 at 0 Fibonacci Retracement Level. The Federal Reserve still considering to increase the interest rates due to a still high US inflation rate. The Fed has implemented a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation that had been at its highest level in some 41 years. Markets widely expect a few more hikes before the Fed can pause to assess the impact the tighter policy is having on the economy. “Simulations of our baseline model suggest that the Fed will need to tighten policy significantly further to achieve its inflation objective by the end of 2025,” the researchers said.
by wilhelmvine21
EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY #EURUSD - As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for EUR was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. The dollar has strengthened after the December FOMC. All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to the OFF of MARKET RISK. But with RETAIL SALES, ISM MANUFACTURING DATA, and FED UPDATES, this situation may change in the future. Therefore, if the FED continues to be HAWKISH, the USD can definitely go UP. So keep an eye on FED UPDATES and US DATA. - Definitely, according to the market structure, EURUSD can go down to the support level of 1.0418 below. At the moment, there is quite a DOWN SIDE BIAS in the MARKET for EUR. After that, EURUSD can go up to 1.1000 LEVEL. If the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP, there will be more EURUSD BUY. So keep an eye on it.
by benny_marshall
1
EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY #EURUSD - Currently the MARKET SENTIMENT for EUR is on the DOWN SIDE. The main reason for that is that all MARKETS including STOCKS and STOCKS are DOWN due to MARKET RISK OFF. It affects the Euro in a big way. Because today is Monday, there is a DOLLAR WEAKNESS with a somewhat RISK ON nature. - Definitely, EURUSD can fall to the SUPPORT LEVEL below. The reason for that is because there is a good UP SIDE BIAS in the MARKET for USD. Accordingly, EURUSD can go down to 0.9858 LEVEL. And after that EURUSD can be BUY to the 1.0661 LEVEL if the MARKET SENTIMENT changes and STOCKS and COMMODITIES start going UP. So keep an eye on it.
by benny_marshall
1
EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY - DXY is currently at 105,286 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.0451 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE is currently below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the PRICE SHORT TERM can be sold a little before BUY. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently displaying a DOWNSIDE BIAS. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES still shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK OFF TONE in the market. Therefore, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD may definitely be somewhat DOWN in the future. Also JPY CHF can be UP. - The EURUSD PRICE can be slightly up to 1.0652 LEVEL. Maybe a change from the USD HIGH VOLATILE EVENTS coming up in the coming days. So stay tuned. If the MARKET moves to the DOWN SIDE the EURUSD 1.0279 LEVEL can be DOWN.
by benny_marshall
EURUSD - CURRENT SENTIMENT ANALYSE , DXY - DXY is currently at 101.632 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.07521 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE is currently higher than the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the PRICE SHORT TERM can be sold a little before BUY. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK OFF. STOCKS is currently showing a NEUTRAL BIAS. And the VOLATILITY is getting a bit UP. Also COMMODITIES still shows a UP SIDE BIAS. Currently there is only one RISK OFF TONE in the market. Therefore, all currencies such as NZD CAD AUD can definitely be DOWN in the future. Also JPY CHF can be UP. - The EURUSD PRICE may be slightly up to 1.0921 LEVEL. Maybe a change from the USD HIGH VOLATILE EVENTS coming up in the coming days. So stay tuned.
by benny_marshall
EURUSD - FOMC CPI DATA WITH CURRENT SENTIMEN ANALYSE , DXY ⛔️ Today is a fairly important day for the EURUSD. This is due to the release of USD CPI DATA. So it's a very HIGH IMPACT NEWS. We need to be vigilant about that. Currently, the EURO has been hit hard by the USD. This is because some of the UPDATES coming from the EURO ZONE are quite NEGATIVE. But even if USD CPI is NEGATIVE, its impact will largely be on the EURO itself. ⛔️ DXY is currently at 103.717 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.0557 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE is currently below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the PRICE will SELL a SHORT TERM a little more. ⛔️ Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. COMMODITIES gives us a GREEN COLOR. So I'm trying to be a bit of a HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES BUY right now. Anyway VIX is getting a bit DOWN right now. Also BONDS PRICES show a slightly DOWN SIDE BIAS. BONDS SPREADS IS GREEN. MARKET currently has a MARKET ENVIRONMENT with a NEUTRAL BIAS close to RISK ON. ⛔️ The EURUSD PRICE can be slightly down to 1.0314 LEVEL. Today's USD HIGH VOLATILE EVENTS may make a difference. So stay tuned. USD INFLATION DATA or CPI DATA to be released today at NEWYORK SESSION
by benny_marshall
EURUSD- Today is a fairly important day for the EURUSD. This is due to the release of USD PCE DATA. So it's a very HIGH IMPACT NEWS. We need to be vigilant about that. Currently, the EURO has been hit hard by the USD. This is because some of the UPDATES coming from the EURO ZONE are quite NEGATIVE. - DXY is currently at 102.947 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.0595 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE is currently below the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the PRICE SHORT TERM can be sold a little further to 1.0349 LEVEL. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. COMMODITIES RISK ON TONE is what gives us. So I'm trying to be a bit of a HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES BUY right now. Anyway VIX is getting a bit DOWN right now. Also BONDS PRICES show a slightly NEUTRAL BIAS. But BONDS SPREADS are getting GREEN. MARKET currently has a MARKET ENVIRONMENT with a NEUTRAL BIAS close to RISK ON. - EURUSD PRICE can be slightly down to 1.03499 LEVEL. Today's USD HIGH VOLATILE EVENTS may make a difference. So stay tuned.
by benny_marshall
5
EURUSD WILL GO UP ? ECB COMMENT WILL HAWKISH ?- Today is a very important day for EURUSD. GERMAN FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI DATA, one of the most important events for EUR, is set to be released tomorrow. And today there is a very important FED CHAIRMAN story for USD. It will definitely VOLATILE EURUSD HUGE. - DXY is currently at 99.89 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.0957 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE BREAK DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS and pulls up with the POSITIVE COMMENT from ECB. Most likely the PRICE will be SHORT TERM UP up to 1.1070 LEVEL. - Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. COMMODITIES gives us a slightly MIXED RISK TONE. So I'm a bit reluctant to be a HIGH BEATA CURRENCIES BUY. Anyway VIX is getting a bit DOWN right now. Also BONDS PRICES show a slightly NEUTRAL BIAS. But BONDS SPREADS are getting GREEN. MARKET currently has a MARKET ENVIRONMENT with a NEUTRAL BIAS close to RISK ON. - The EURUSD PRICE can be UP to 1.1070 LEVEL. Today's USD HIGH VOLATILE EVENTS may make a difference. So stay tuned.
by benny_marshall
EURUSD WILL GO UP ? DXY WEAK OR NOT ? NFP + ISM⛔️ This is a very important week for EURUSD. CPI DATA for EUR is to be issued. This is a very VOLATILE event for the Euro. Because it is a very important INDICATOR. Among them are the ISM MANUFACTURING PMI, and the US LABOR DATA. These are the most important ECONOMIC INDICATORS and these are the HIGH VOLATILIE INDICATORS. ⛔️ DXY is currently at 98.44 LEVEL. Also the EUR FEATURE stays at 1.1091 LEVEL. The EURUSD PRICE is located on the DYNAMIC S / R LEVELS. Most likely the PRICE will be SHORT TERM UP up to 1.1228 LEVEL. ⛔️ Currently the OVERALL MARKET is RISK ON. Also the STOKES are turning a bit GREEN. VIX is getting a bit DOWN. Also COMMODITIES still shows a DOWN SIDE BIAS. Currently there is a NEUTRAL BIAS on the market side. ⛔️ The EURUS PRICE can be UP to 1.1228 LEVEL before it becomes DOWN. Then you can DOWN to 1.0849 LEVEL. According to the LABOR DATA and ISM MANUFACTURING DATA coming out today, we can expect some change in the EURUSD. ⛔️ Currently the MARKET may be the TREND LINE SUPPORT. If you BREAK that TREND LINE, EURUSD can sell faster.
by benny_marshall
EURUSD Forecast And Technical Analysis November 13-17EURUSD Forecast And Technical Analysis November 13-17 Fundamentals: EURUSD trade has been affected by the US tax reform progress past week. USD not only failed to continue rallying, but lost its bullish charm somewhere between disappointment around the tax reform and plummeting equities, and an empty macroeconomic calendar, which left investors clueless on what’s next. The upcoming week at least will bring a more interesting macroeconomic calendar, with relevant releases at both shores of the Atlantic, including German inflation, EU GDP and inflation, and US inflation and retail sales among others. Although tax-reform developments seem to dominate the headlines, USD’s performance in the week ahead will be affected by 3 factors – politics, economics and monetary policy. There’s no doubt that politics will be the primary driver but with 6 Federal Reserve presidents speaking, the prospect of rate hikes could also affect how the Dollar trades. Retail sales and consumer prices will also be released and investors will be eager to see if last month’s sharp increase in jobs translated into more spending. While we believe that rate-hike talk could lift the greenback, lower gas prices and zero wage growth in October along with the drop in consumer sentiment means spending may be restrained. So on balance, we expect a mildly positive boost from Fed speak and U.S. data. More about the fundamentals: www.fxters.com As we have mentioned before 1.16600 – 1.16900 is the short-term resistance area for EURUSD. If EURUSD can break above 1.16900, 1.17400 will be the midterm resistance. 1.17400 is the Fibo Retracement 61.80% of the last drop from 1.18800. On the Daily Chart, the price is still below EMA 50 and EMA 100. RSI and Stochastic are still in the negative zone but headed North. On the H4 chart, MACD is positive. RSI moving towards the overbought area. Price is above EMA 50 and testing EMA 100 resistance. So technically we see an uptrend on smaller chart timeframes but still downtrend on the daily chart. EURUSD needs to rise above 1.1750 in order to shake off the negative bias. If Draghi takes the opportunity to remind the market that rate hikes are a long way off, EURUSD could find itself back below 1.16 quickly. We have a week ahead full of data, speech and political uncertainties. Let the market open on Monday. We will try to get adapted ourselves to developments. Trade Plan of EURUSD will be released for premium members by the Asia Opening
by eacemi