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EUR/USD analysis: ECB hikes won't quell parity fearsThe European Central Bank raised interest rates by half a percentage point at its July 2022 meeting, the first hike in eleven years, terminating eight years of negative rates and speeding up efforts to return to the medium-term inflation objective of 2%. The ECB also hinted that it will keep raising interest rates at its next meetings, using a data-dependent approach based on how macroeconomic circumstances change. The decision to raise rates by 50 basis points is a more aggressive step than the ECB predicted at the last meeting, when President Christine Lagarde hinted at a 25 basis point boost. The announcement caught the market off guard and EUR/USD spiked after the announcement, breaching 1.02 and extending to 1.0277 before meeting stiff resistance and dipping again owards 1.02. The ECB press conference hinting to a weakening Eurozone economic outlook changed the direction of EUR/USD . The outlook for the pair continues to be influenced by the rapid deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals in the euro area, the uncertainty produced by the energy crisis in Europe, and the political crisis that began in Italy after Mario Draghi's resignation. The ECB's 50 basis point boost is more of a front-loading move than a foreshadowing of a longer hiking cycle due to the Eurozone's mounting recession risks. During the Q&A session, President Cristine Lagarde stated "we may accelerate the exit, but not the point of arrival." She was alluding to the fact that accelerating the hikes in the near term does not necessarily lead to a higher terminal rate at the conclusion of the hiking cycle. This was a big letdown for bulls who were wagering that an increasingly hawkish ECB would contain, if not reverse, interest rate differences with the Federal Reserve in the medium term. Technically speaking, the short-term rebound seen over the last few sessions has lost steam in the last few hours. EUR/USD rebounded from the bottom line of the descending channel, but today faced a strong resistance at 1.027, retracing back to 1.02. The 14-day RSI stalled and failed to break 50, while the bullish MACD crossing failed to ignite the bulls' enthusiasm. The European PMIs for July will be released tomorrow. If the indicators were to confirm an already existing slowdown in economic activity, EUR/USD could revert to 1.01 and linger around parity ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on July 27th. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
EUR/USD analysis: eyes on 1.035 with 50bps hike? The US dollar shows no signs of rebound following a three-day losing streak, with EUR/USD breaking above the 1.02 barrier yesterday and surging to 1.024 as of this writing, boosted by rising speculation of a half-percentage point hike at tomorrow’s ECB meeting. The case for a hawkish half-point increase has gathered traction over the past hours following rumours disclosed by Reuters yesterday. On top of that, the Eurozone’s inflation rate reached an all-time high of 8.6 percent in June, and the EUR/USD hit parity last week. Meanwhile, political tensions in Italy have subsided as Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who resigned last week, has decided to remain in office pending the formation of a new broad parliamentary coalition. This helps to stabilise the euro by reducing the possibility of populist backlash in Italy. EUR/USD chart analysis The hammer candlestick formation that occurred on July 14 on the EUR/USD daily chart prompted a short-term trend reversal for the pair, which is currently enjoying its fourth session in the green. A positive close today would be EUR/USD ’s best streak since early February. The 14-day RSI, after rebounding from extreme oversold levels, is still trading below the 50 mark, meaning the bulls are not yet in full control. The MACD instead produced the bullish signal, with the MACD line crossing from below to above the signal line. The underlying trendline remains bearish, although an attempt to 1.035 (May and June support) is likely if the ECB announces a half percentage point hike tomorrow. The breakout of the bearish trendline above 1.046 is more challenging, at least in the short term. On the negative side, parity levels might be retested if the ECB fails to deliver a hawkish message tomorrow. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodities analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
EURUSD Short/Sell Idea at recent resistanceEURUSD Short/Sell Idea at recent resistance. EUR is still bearish and will test 1.000 parity level again. Entry: 1.0100 sell zone. Previously came to this level and faced rejection as well as being a previous support area. Stop Loss: 1.01278 Above Previous highs. If we do get stopped out, Id look for the next selling zone. Take profit: 1.00158 At previous support levels. Always Use good risk management, only risk 1% or less on any given trade. When a certain % or pips in profit move stop loss to breakeven. Also you can take partials along the way or trail profit in case of a reversal or if price surpasses our target level.
Short
by dinomalik
1
EURUSD may fall from its strong resistanceHi everyone in the TradingView community. I am Rana Sarmad I like to share and talk about trading strategies. If you are a member of my subscribers list and like my ideas, please don't hesitate to let me know by hitting that Like button and growing my notification count! We are going to discuss about FX:EURUSD We can see market is strugling near its previous resistance and break its upside trendline in h1. So we are expecting more fall near resistance. This is my opinion, I really hope this will be useful for you. This is not a financial advice. Always take trade at your own risk, Be ready and take care your money. Have a great profit ! Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the EMOTT brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence
Short
by Theranasaramd
1
EURUSD | Chapter 4 | Ursula 's last standThis is a follow up of my recent EURUSD analysis (Linked in related ideas). I took another look and adjusted the S/R level and consider it broken. However i still dont feel like taking shorts as we are approaching some major support levels aswell areas of interest. For one its the psychological level - i could imagine it will be highly defended. Once broken price should drop accelerated - similiar to Oil in 2020. If price shouldnt show any reaction to this level i doubt that Support area 1 will hold price up for long. My best bets for longs are currently at support area 2 and the ATL below it. What i prefer to see would be price pushing fast under the ATL but a daily or monthly close above it. Takeaway: - Aslong price didnt retake S/R level broken or taking out the ATL i dont really plan to go long - Because of all the support areas below i dont plan to short at this time. However i will look for shorts once Support area 1 is broken on a timeframe like 4h or daily. Good luck Disclaimer: - This information does not constitute as financial advice and is only for educational purposes. I am not your financial advisor. - You trade entirely at your own risk - Make your own research - Finance and trading is evil, capitalism is bad, duh ;)
by a_tale_of_bulls_and_bears
2