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Eurusdoutlook

EURUSD - FOMC Prep - These 2 scenarios to anticipateMarket is overall uptrend after previous low showed the reversal point to head higher. Bias is for the Buy However, FOMC can produce volatility so we can have spikes in both direction. There's a Sell scenario off an H4 gap. But the preferred idea is to head lower, getting a better price on the HTF, then continue to the Equal Highs / Double top, taking out the liquidity target eventually. Be aware, if it's not clear this week, we may have a clearer picture on next week's news and the move could also happen then if there's a delay/ranging market. The D1 timeframe usually provides the smoother outlook. I mostly base my ideas on that. Leave your comments below if you have any questions. Thanks
Long
by The_Peaceful_Trader
2
EURUSD: holds steady above 1.0400 amid US tariff threatsEUR/USD holds steady above 1.0450 in the European trading hours on Thursday. Broad US Dollar underperformance supports the pair. However, tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and geopolitical tension might cap its upside. US data and Fedspeak remains in focus. EUR/USD Technical Overview Technically, the bullish outlook of EUR/USD remains intact as the major pair holds above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is located below the midline, near 42.85, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out. The first upside barrier for EUR/USD emerges near 1.0461, the high of February 19. The key resistance level to watch is the 1.0500-1.0505 zone, representing the psychological level and the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level will see a rally to 1.0533, the high of January 27.
Long
by xauusd_rr
EUR/USD: A Small Bearish Bias Emerges at the 1.0464 ZoneDespite the Euro recent appreciation since February 11—gaining more than 2% —a new bearish bias has appeared, triggering a minor downside correction. The temporary strengthening of the U.S. dollar is occurring as markets await the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes scheduled for tomorrow. Possible New Trend Formation The recent upward movement in favor of the euro has created progressively higher lows since mid-January and early February. These higher lows suggest the potential formation of a new short-term uptrend. However, the price is currently testing a key resistance zone. Until a new higher high is confirmed, it is too early to validate a sustained bullish bias in EUR/USD. RSI Indicator The RSI remains above the 50 level, indicating some bullish momentum. However, its slope has started to decline as the price approaches resistance. If this trend continues, bearish pressure from the last session may gain more relevance. ADX Indicator The ADX line remains below 20, signaling neutrality in most recent price movements. This lack of a clear trend makes it difficult for EUR/USD to sustain the short-term uptrend. If the ADX remains neutral in the coming sessions, price action is likely to remain sideways rather than forming a strong directional move. Key Levels to Watch: 1.02373 – Distant Support: Lowest level in the past two months. Persistent bearish pressure at this level could invalidate the developing bullish formation in the short term. 1.04646 – Current Resistance: Aligns with January’s high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break above this zone could confirm a continuation of the new uptrend forming in recent sessions. 1.05994 – Key Resistance: Coincides with the 100-period moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If the bullish momentum pushes price toward this level, it would confirm a much stronger uptrend in EUR/USD. By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
EURUSD INTRADAY capped by resistance at 1.0500The EURUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 1.0500. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 1.0500 level could target the downside support at 1.0425 followed by the 1.0374 and 1.0347 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 1.0500 resistance and a daily close above that level could trigger further rallies higher and a retest of the 1.0530 resistance level followed by 1.0576. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Outlook: Bullish Trend Intact, Next Target 1.06?In my post last week about EUR/USD, I argued that the pair could rise to 1.05 and that dips around 1.03 should be seen as buying opportunities. Indeed, after briefly dipping below 1.03, the pair reversed to the upside and reached my 1.05 target. Currently, the pair is undergoing a small correction and is trading at 1.0460 at the time of writing. However, my bullish outlook remains unchanged. Dips around 1.04 should once again be considered buying opportunities. The next target for bulls could be the 1.06 resistance zone. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
EUR/USD getting close to target after tariffs rebound...The EUR/USD has rebounded nicely from two weeks prior when we gapped down pretty significantly after tariffs were announced. The original observation was bullish after identifying a bullish pattern (Descending Megaphone) alongside MACD divergence. We're stalling at the moment around 1.0500 and I don't expect any further movement throughout the day considering it's a U.S. market holiday however, I'm continuing to hold on to my long position and eying an exit at 1.0600 which is where the yearly pivot point is located. If we do get to see the 1.0600 price, I will be evaluating short positions somewhere in this zone. We'll see how the remainder of this week develops and go from there. Good Luck & Trade Safe.
by InternalTraderNYC
EURUSD Shor-term SellMy Analysis on EURUSD Based on my technical evaluation of this currency pair, the price action appears to be retesting the key resistance level within the current market structure. This phase is critical, as resistance zones often act as barriers where selling pressure may intensify. To optimize risk-reward dynamics, I recommend exercising patience and awaiting confirmation of a bearish reversal signal—such as a rejection candlestick pattern, loss of momentum, or a decisive close below the resistance line I’ve identified. A validated bounce from this zone could serve as a high-probability sell signal for traders looking to capitalize on a potential downward move. Additionally, monitoring volume trends and broader market context would further strengthen the conviction in this setup. As always, prudent risk management, including stop-loss placement above the resistance, remains essential. What are your thoughts, everyone? Does this align with your technical outlook, or are there alternative factors you’d consider in this scenario?
Short
by sirkamal
4
To fade or not to trade? (Example: EUR/USD)There is a correction taking place in the US dollar uptrend. Do we trade against the prevailing trend, or sit on our hands and do nothing? To fade or not to trade, that is the question. On a surface level, the current environment is a trading range - following a long downtrend. When a strong major trend has been in place for around 3 months - sometimes sooner - sometimes later (we have observed 3 months as a good benchmark) something has to change - either there is a significant correction or the trend reverses. The challenge lies in distinguishing between the two. Reacting too early risks fighting momentum, while reacting too late means missing an opportunity. After years of trading, I’ve realised the goal is not to guess – but to follow a structured trading system that tilts the odds in our favor. The system doesn’t work every time of course but it gives you a way to approach the market. Let me outline now - a system using Fractals & the 30-Week Moving Average to help you decide which way to trade the market 1. Identify the Primary Trend Use the 30-week moving average (30 WMA) as the trend filter. Uptrend: Price is consistently above the 30 WMA, and the slope is rising. Downtrend: Price is consistently below the 30 WMA, and the slope is falling. A strong trend remains in place as long as price respects the 30 WMA. A violation suggests a shift is possible. 2. Look for Fractal Confirmation of a Shift In an uptrend, a higher low followed by a higher high confirms continuation. In a downtrend, a lower high followed by a lower low confirms continuation. * The key fractal to watch for a potential bottom after a downtrend – is the first higher low after a downtrend correction that made a higher high (potential bottom) * The key fractal to watch for a potential top after an uptrend – is the first lower high after an uptrend correction that made a lower low (potential reversal) So, how about what’s happening now? The weekly chart shows a base has formed at 1.02 in EUR/USD. Price closed last week right at support-turned-resistance around 1.05. A ‘higher high’ was formed followed by a ‘higher low’ as demonstrated by the green and red fractals accordingly. However, the price remains below the 30-week moving average. We can see the setup better on the daily chart as a shallow downtrend line. The pattern beneath the trendline is a messy inverse head and shoulders. As such, should the trendline break to the upside it is a bullish signal. And if the trendline holds, it signals the trend is still just consolidating before a continuation lower. We think there’s a good chance this trendline breaks given the alignment of the weekly fractals. So fade the downtrend or ignore the move upwards? To answer that it helps to think about the next step. If the price does break higher, how high is it likely to go? There is resistance at 1.06 from the late November and December peaks. Then the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 30-week moving average come in around 1.07. The reason fading a trend has a lower probability of success vs trading with the trend is because there is so much nearby resistance (in the case of trading a bottom). You can absolutely fade this trend but our experience tells us the price often fails at a nearby resistance level, capping the risk:reward potential on long positions- and simultaneously offering a nice opportunity for short positions. But - as always - that’s just how the team and I are seeing things, what do you think? Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request! Drop us a comment! cheers! Jasper
by jasperlawler
8
EU long possibilities from around 1.04200 back upMy analysis for EU aligns with my other pairs, as I anticipate a pullback to a stronger demand zone before continuing its bullish pro-trend move. Since price recently reacted bearishly from a supply zone, I expect it to open with a bearish move until it reaches my 3-hour POI, where a potential bullish reversal could take place. Once price reaches my area of interest, I will look for signs of accumulation and a slowdown, which would confirm a buy opportunity. If price pushes higher instead, I have a fresh supply zone above the previously mitigated one, which could act as a point of interest for a potential reaction. Confluences for EU Buys: - Price remains bullish, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. - There is a clean, unmitigated 3-hour demand zone that aligns with my setup. - Liquidity is stacked to the upside, providing targets for the next bullish move. - DXY has been bearish, which supports this bullish EU outlook. P.S. Price action has been clean and structured, and I expect it to move as anticipated toward my marked zones. Stay sharp in these markets, and have a great trading week ahead!
Long
by Hassan_fx
1
EUR/USD Daily Market Outlook – Here's Why We're Pushing HigherWelcome back, traders! My name is Steven, and this is your daily EUR/USD outlook. Make sure to leave a like, follow, and share your thoughts in the comments below. Now let’s dive straight into the charts. The Bigger Picture: Weekly Insights On the weekly timeframe, EUR/USD has made a strong bullish statement. After a series of lower lows and retracements, we’ve now broken above the weekly fractal high This move has solidified a bullish structure, setting the stage for further upside. Where did this momentum come from? The pair retraced into a fresh daily demand zone, formed around equal lows just above a key candlestick. Once those equal lows were swept, the demand zone held firm, leading to a V-shaped reversal. This is a textbook liquidity grab, and now the market is pushing back toward the highs. Key Levels to Watch Previous Weekly High – The next logical liquidity target sits above last week’s high, which remains untapped. Monthly High – Just beyond the weekly high lies the previous month’s high, which also holds a cluster of liquidity. Liquidity Bump in the Road – Zooming out, we can identify a minor “bump” in the impulse down, where significant stops and liquidity remain. Lower Timeframe Strategy: Entries and Targets If you’re trading the four-hour or lower timeframes, here’s what I’m watching: Setup #1: The market is currently trading inside a four-hour demand zone, formed after yesterday’s inflation-driven dip. For confirmation, I’ll drop to the 1-hour or 15-minute timeframe and look for a trend shift. This means waiting for lower lows to turn into higher highs, creating fresh demand zones to trade from. Setup #2: Alternatively, if we sweep the previous daily low, I’ll look for a reversal from that level to go long. Both setups rely on lower timeframe order flow aligning with the higher timeframe bullish trend. Be patient—this confirmation is key. What’s Driving EUR/USD Higher? Yesterday’s inflation data sparked volatility, initially strengthening the dollar. However, the rally quickly reversed, with EUR/USD tapping a four-hour demand zone and bouncing higher. Additionally, positive geopolitical developments—specifically talks of peace between Russia and Ukraine—have provided a boost to the euro, as a potential resolution would alleviate Europe’s energy inflation concerns. Technical Takeaways Bullish Trend Intact: Both weekly and daily structures remain bullish, supported by liquidity grabs and demand zone rejections. Targets in Sight: I’m watching for a move toward the previous weekly high and potentially beyond, toward the monthly high. Risk Management: As always, use tight stops and manage your risk, especially when trading lower timeframes. Action Plan for Today Monitor the four-hour demand zone for lower timeframe confirmations. Watch the previous daily low for a potential liquidity sweep and reversal. Stay tuned for any major news updates that could shift sentiment or momentum. That’s it for today’s EUR/USD outlook! Let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and don’t forget to like and follow for more insights. Trade safe and good luck!
Long
by theunscriptedacademy
EUR/USD "The Dollar Crusher" Forex Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the EUR/USD "The Dollar Crusher" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (1.04500) then make your move - Bullish profits await!" however I advise placing Buy Stop Orders above the breakout MA or Place Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 1.03500(swing Trade) Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 1.07000 (or) Escape Before the Target Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: EUR/USD "The Dollar Crusher" Forex Market market is currently experiencing a bullish trend,., driven by several key factors. 🔴Fundamental Analysis - The Eurozone's economic growth is expected to slow down, while the US economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates steady, while the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its accommodative monetary policy. 🟤Macro Analysis - The Eurozone's inflation rate is expected to remain low, while the US inflation rate is expected to remain above the Federal Reserve's target. - The Eurozone's trade balance is expected to remain in surplus, while the US trade balance is expected to remain in deficit. 🟠Sentimental Analysis - Institutional investors have a bullish sentiment towards the EUR/USD pair, with 55% of investors being bullish. - Hedge funds have increased their long positions in the EUR/USD pair, with a net long exposure of 12%. 🟣COT Analysis - The Commitments of Traders (COT) report shows that commercial traders have increased their long positions in the EUR/USD pair, with a net long exposure of 10%. - Non-commercial traders have also increased their long positions, with a net long exposure of 15%. 🟡Trader Sentiment - Retail traders have a bullish sentiment towards the EUR/USD pair, with 52% of traders being bullish. - Commercial banks have increased their EUR/USD holdings, with a growth rate of 5%. 🔵Bullish and Bearish Data: - Bullish Sentiment: Institutional investors have a bullish sentiment towards the EUR/USD pair, with 55% being bullish. Hedge funds have increased their long positions, with a net long exposure of 12% - Bearish Sentiment: Asset managers are trimming their long exposure, and gross shorts are trending higher for large specs and asset managers since Q4 🟢Based on this analysis, the EUR/USD pair is expected to move in a bullish trend, with a 55% chance of an uptrend and a 35% chance of a downtrend. However, please note that market predictions can be unpredictable and influenced by various factors ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. 📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
EURUSD - Analysis and Potential Setups (Intraday- 12.02.25)Overall Trend & Context: The pair is in an overall downtrend on the higher time frames and we are now waiting for the lower time frames to shift in accordance with the narrative. Technical Findings: Price is at a daily level of supply (as well as refined zones down to the 15m & 5m) LTF oversold conditions. We could still see further upward movement so will wait for either a break at 1.03650 or for our OANDA:GBPUSD trade to run into profits (or both). Potential Scenarios: For now I will only be considering shorts. Risk accordingly and be safe for CPI today.
Short
by Apexfx_Alpha
EURUSD bearish below 1.0400 levelThe EURUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 1.0400, which is 25th Feb swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 1.0400 level could target the downside support at 1.0260 followed by the 1.0210 and 1.0180 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 1.0400 resistance and a daily close above that level could trigger further rallies higher and a retest of the 1.0440 resistance level followed by 1.0500 and 1.0560. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Range-Bound but Ready to Break Higher? Since the beginning of the year, EUR/USD has been trading within a range, fluctuating between 1.0200 and 1.0440, aside from a few temporary spikes in both directions. While the overall trend remains bearish, I anticipate a relief rally in the near future, which could push the price toward the 1.0650–1.0700 zone in the medium term. In the short term, the market remains stable, with a strong support base forming around 1.0200. Given this setup, my bias is bullish, and I’m looking to buy dips, targeting 1.0500 as the first key resistance level.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
EUR.USD Longs from 1.02600My EU long idea is based on the strong bullish pressure seen after price filled last week’s gap. I’ll be looking for buying opportunities once price mitigates my 11-hour demand zone near the bottom. However, I’ll remain cautious since this area has already been mitigated in last week’s forecast. If price pushes higher instead, I expect it to mitigate the 6-hour supply zone, which originated from a Break of Structure (BOS) and was reinforced by a Change of Character (CHOCH). From there, potential short opportunities could arise around 1.03800 for a move back down. Confluences for EU Buys: - EU has been very bullish, making this a pro-trend setup. - The market structure remains strong, forming higher highs and higher lows. - There is significant liquidity to the upside along with well-defined supply zones. - The clean 11-hour demand zone previously caused an impulsive move, making it a strong area of interest. Note: If price breaks below the 11-hour demand zone, I expect EU to turn bearish for a short period. Have a great trading week!
Long
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD Selling OpportunitiesDaily swing Structure = Bearish Daily Internal Structure = Bearish Narrative We are pro-trend which means sell EURUSD. All structures are in alignment. 4Hrs Swing structure = Bullish Internal Structure = Bearish What we can observe is that daily swing, daily internal and 4hrs internal are all in alignment. We now know that the demand zones created as the market was in the pullback phase are reaction points and that the supply zones should hold if the bearish internal trend is to hold. Given the 2 facts, we should continue selling Targeting the internal weak low as the low hanging fruit. Also, it is important to note that we are creating some sorta supply chain, which further cements idea of a strong selling pressure coming into the market. So any pullback into the marked supply orderblock should give us a chance for entry.
Short
by DagemFxStudio