Get started

Eurusdoutlook

EU HAS MORE UPSIDE LEFT? (Longs from 1.09000)My bias for EUR/USD this week aligns with a potential upside movement, mirroring Scenario (A) in my analysis of GU. While I anticipate eventual selling pressure, there's currently no clean unmitigated supply zone that catches my interest. Instead, I foresee a retracement to the 10-hour demand zone for a potential buy opportunity, aligning with the current upward trend. During this pullback, I expect price to re-accumulate within the zone, providing an opportunity for buying positions targeting either the equal highs or the imbalance above. However, my focus for this week revolves around identifying buying opportunities, considering the anticipated drop in price for future opportunities. My confluences for EU Buys are as follows: - Price has been moving bullish recently reinforcing this idea with recent break of structure. - DXY has been moving very bearish recently supporting this idea. - Clean 10hr demand zone left that has caused BOS, expect it to continue the trend. - Daily imbalance above that needs to get filled. - Lots of liquidity to the upside like equal highs and trend lines. P.S. I wouldn't be surprised if price keeps surging from my demand zone, situated at a psychological key level, and proceeds to rally up to mitigate the significant 20-hour supply zone. This is where I anticipate the next significant downturn to occur. Have a great trading week and watch out for this Tuesday's & Thursday's news events!
Long
by Hassan_fx
5
Special Guest Intro / March NFP Top-Down Analysis 🎨Hello Traders! Today we were fortunate enough to have the ShrewdCatFx Illustrator make an appearance on the Air. Yes, it is that time of the month for NFP data! 0:0 Special Guest & Monthly Timeframe/NFP Expectations 2:32 Weekly Timeframe 3:43 Daily Timeframe 6:20 4Hr timeframe 8:27 1Hr Timeframe Numbers are expected to decrease over the prior period but growth is expected overall as 198K jobs are forecasted to have been created in February. The figure from ADP on Wednesday missed expectations slightly as 149K was expected and 140K was the actual figure. If the data tomorrow is better/more than 198K, then I'm anticipating a partial retracement of the increase we've observed so far this week. (Up 120 Pips this week) If the Data is close to what is forecasted (198K) or falls short of that number, then I anticpate a strong continuation move to the upside towards 1.09729 Daily Level and 1.09828 4Hr Zone. We may even moon towards the Monthly level 1.105. Otherwise, favorable numbers will cause a retracement (as previously mentioned) back towards 1.09039 4Hr Zone and 1.08834 Daily Level.
by ShrewdCatfx
EURUSD likely to move from Uncertainty to OpportunityHello Traders, It's good to be back to posting my analysis after a short break. Here is my outlook on the EURUSD currency pair. The directional movement of EURUSD is quite unclear. Recently, we have seen price encountered difficulty in closing above the previously established local maximum at 1.08058 in close proximity to the 800EMA, which serves as a dynamic resistance. Upon revisiting this level, a negative reaction occurred in the form of a pullback. The current level is well-defined, and the breach of both this level and the 800EMA constitutes a strong signal for active buying. Until such a development occurs, the corrective structure may persist. This current structure could also be viewed as a 1-2 wave structure within a broader wave . As such, this nested structure holds the potential to evolve into a considerably prolonged upward impulse. In the prevailing circumstances, a breakout beyond the 1.08060 level would signal buying opportunities. The initial target is the 1.08640 level, acting as the center of gravity, and a successful breakout beyond this level is expected to push the price towards 1.0925 and 1.0986, respectively. Cheers and Happy trading!
Long
by Samuel124
Mid-Week Analysis of EurUsd / NFP Week 🛰️Hello Traders welcome back to another Video Analysis of EurUsd. NFP week typically never disappoints with volatility an big volume moves in the market. Today we observed a nice move to the upside that coincided with the Fed Reserve speech during NY session. 0:0 Monthly timeframe/News/Intro 1:40 Weekly timeframe 3:32 Daily timeframe 5:58 4Hr timeframe 6:41 1Hr timeframe Initially the 4hr candle closed with no top wick. Price consolidated for an hour prior to the Jerome Powell speech in which we observed solid volume and a 30 pip increase to the upside. We broke the previous Monthly candle's high which is quite bullish. Our next targets for Longs include the next 4hr zone 1.0926 and 1.095 Weekly resistance level. For Shorts we would like to see a break and close below 1.0895 1hr/4hr support zone. From there a retest would be a nice entry as price could retrace back towards our daily level 1.08834 which was our Daily resistance.. and now could act as a Daily support area for further Longs as the week progresses.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EurUsd Buyers battle @ 1.086 4Hr Zone ⚔️Hello traders welcome back to another Analysis. //// 0:0 Monthly/Introduction 1:06 Weekly Timeframe 2:24 Daily timeframe 2:58 4Hr timeframe 4:15 1Hr timeframe //// We have upcoming (USD) PMI manufacturing data during the next NY session to look out for. It is expected to expand overall but decrease slightly from the last data point. Coming out of last Friday and during Monday's price action we observed Risk on sentiment with the Eur being favored. Maybe this will come to a halt, and during today's price action we will see a retracement back down with the positive expected USD data. If Risk-On sentiment continues, a candle closure above 1.086 on the 1hr and especially the 4hr may confirm solid long orders up to the next daily level (1.0888).
by ShrewdCatfx
Eur/Usd March 24'... Risk on Sentiment? 🕶️Eurusd new monthly candle! The February monthly candle closed a bearish doji candle. This suggests that we may continue a bearish descent from the January monthly engulfing candle. At the same time it appears that price is respecting Weekly level 1.0763 and there is Risk-On Sentiment in the markets following optimistic Cad inflation data from 2 weeks ago. Apologies if this analysis was a bit scattered and have a nice day! 0:0 Intro and Monhtly timeframe 1:50 Weekly timeframe 3:31 Daily timeframe 3:51 back to Monthly to explain new monthly candle potential 5:10 back to daily timeframe 6:53 4Hr timeframe 8:16 1Hr timeframe Attempted a brief analysis but ofc it ran longer than I would've liked :)
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EUR/USD Longs from 1.08200 or 1.07800 back upMy idea for EU at the moment is for it to push higher in order to take out the trendline liquidity that sits above. I expect price to do a similar move to GU in which I expect a bit more upside left to validate this newly marked out 4 hourly demand. Then I anticipate a pullback within this demand to take out liquidity above and tap into the 12hr supply zone that I have marked out above. From there I will be expecting bullish pressure to die down and form a wyckoff distribution. Once I see my edge appear on the lower time frame I will execute sells back down to continue the overall trend. Confluences for Buys are as follows: - Price has left lots of liquidity to the upside that needs to be taken I.e. like trend lines. - Supply zone above that needs to be mitigated so still more upside left. - A 4-hour demand zone has emerged, from which we could witness a bullish response. - price has changed character and broke structure to the upside before as well. P.S. This is only a temporary trend notion until a new supply zone materialises for me to consider selling price back down. However, selling opportunities don't appear optimal due to the significant liquidity around the current price. Have a great trading week! NFP on Friday I advise to preserve capital and stay away that day.
Long
by Hassan_fx
1
Eur/Usd silent commentary analysis 📻2 Hours after London Close 2/28/24. Eurusd we observed a wild day of volatility as a large 50 pip bearish move during london session was duly corrected by a Bullish New york session. Price moved away from our Daily resistance level 1.0885 today and pulled back as the monthly candle comes to a closure. This is not abnormal to observe when the monthly candle closes. GDP Preliminary numbers contracted today and missed expectations of 3.3% Q/Q. It was 3.2% so a difference of .1%. This was enough to cause a sudden 4 pip drop followed by an 8 pips increase in 2 minutes. This was a catalyst for the bullish sentiment all morning for the Eur/Usd ad therefore the Eur. Key levels and session behavior described in more detail in the video.
by ShrewdCatfx
Bullish momentum is over? 📊Eur/Usd happily continued it's acscent and bullish market structure played out nicely . Anticpating this bullish move back to retest the high created from last week (1.08566) has been modest. It is possible that we may continue to the upside and retest other key price levels such as 1.08722 and 1.0888. If price breaks below 1.08428 we may drop back into a range and price may reach across the clean traffic range to 1.08166 . A 27 Pips range.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Eur/Usd Top Down Analysis Feb 24'Eur/Usd! The reaction off 1.08927 was quite dramatic last thursday and friday. Intro/Monthly TF 0:0 Weekly Timeframe 4:05 Daily timeframe 6:29 4hr timeframe 9:29 1Hr timeframe 11:33 Price has retraced and since dipped into a 4hr zone 1.08011. It bounced here on friday and the price action consolidated after that. It is possible that we may observe more sideways movement before another continuation. I liken a continuation for buyers because of sentiment moving out of last week due to cad news. It is quite normal to see a reaction off a daily zone like we observed on thursday and friday and it could very well be just a pullback in an uptrend. Caution however! Not Financial Advice. Education Purposes Only.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
3
Major Events in Euro Area and US on Friday Major Events in Euro Area and US on Friday Friday is a significant day with Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on the radar. Euro Area inflation likely eased to 2.5% in February, and the official report is expected on Friday after a rush of local economic data from the Euro Area. The European Central Bank (ECB) is grappling with the challenge of bringing core inflation down from 3% to 2%. While the market previously anticipated rate cuts to begin in April, the ECB, emphasizing data reliance, has prompted market adjustments, pushing the expected first rate cut to June. In the US, the focus this week is on the PCE data. The day before, we do get Q4 GDP second estimate. But unless it is adjusted significantly, this will likely not have an impact. Anticipating comparable rate cut trajectories in both economies, the dollar could potentially make up recent losses against the euro, particularly if January's PCE data exceeds estimates, thanks to its superior interest rate differential. Thursday witnessed a surge that touched the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) before a subsequent retreat. Looking at the short term, technical indicators on the 4-hour chart hint at a potential upward bias. EUR/USD is presently trading above all its moving averages, and the 20 SMA appears poised to surpass the mildly bearish 200 SMA.
by BlackBull_Markets