EURUSD: bullish or bearish? Check today's analysisThe updated data showed that in August, annual inflation increased by 5.2%, down from the previous measurement of 5.3%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.3% monthly and 5.3% annually.
This downward trend was taken positively by market participants, particularly following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise the key interest rate to 4.50%.
On the other hand, recent US macroeconomic data has been mixed. Housing Starts in August adjusted from 1.452 million to 1.283 million, less than expected, but Building Permits increased from 1.443 million to 1.543 million, outperforming estimates.
Later today, investors will be watching the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, where the interest rate is expected to remain at 5+%. Comments about potential monetary policy tightening in November and December could significantly influence the markets.
Resistance levels: 1.0700, 1.0730, 1.0770
Support levels: 1.0600, 1.0630, 1.0600
Eurusdoutlook
Should you buy the dip in EUR/USD? (Entry, TP, SL)Hello everyone, EUR/USD has been on a downtrend for the past
8-9 weeks. However, that could change very soon.
📌1.0640 is a support level, from where we have already seen a
pullback of about 80 pips in EUR/USD.
📌The next support level lies in the 1.0520 region.
📌If the initial support level holds, buying the dip in EUR/USD
with target at 1.0850 is a potential trade plan. However, if price
drops below 1.0640, traders need to wait for 1.0520 before buying again.
A Bearish squeeze 🐻 unfolding or too hopeful? ❌EurUsd Buyers in La la land or are we onto something here?
0:0 Monthly timeframe
2:10 Weekly tiemframe
5:26 daily timeframe
7:34 4hr timeframe
10:25 Let's talk interest rates
12:30 1hr timeframe
At times the market has coincided it's bottom or top with a News release. Today we have the September Interest Rates release as our fundamental catalyst for a potential bearish squeeze. We have 9 Bearish candles in a row. I was wrong last week about EurUsd longs so maybe I'm at fault here and this scenario is a long shot, no pun intended. We saw Profit taking on Fridaylast week and the market inched to the upside. On Monday we saw a clean range followed by a breakout to the upside on the intra-day timeframes during NY session. Today we observed a breakout to the upside once again with London Session. When NY session came around , price said " Not Yet" as we have Interest rates coming up and it was not the right time. We just ranged today prior to interest rates as one could expect. What I'm looking for is a move prior to news or a wick with news between 1.064 daily support level and 1.066 weekly support level preceding an increase back to 1.075 Daily resistance Zoneish. Not anticipating a rate hike or a rate cut as things will likely remain unchanged as we've already observed the fastest rate hike ever.
EUR/USD falters around its 2023 open price, ahead of FOMCYes, EUR/USD has fallen to a key support level around the May low. And that will likely deter some bears around current levels from entering short (depending on their timeframe). But given the potential for for the Fed to deliver a more hawkish message than money markets are pricing in whilst the ECB suggest they are done tightening, we're not discounting the potential for EUR/USD to break lower.
The daily trend remains bearish and a shooting star formed following a 2-day retracement higher. Its high perfectly respected a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before the day closed back beneath 1.070.
But what has really caught our eye is that prices also faltered around the 2023 open price. And that means the euro really has gone nowhere this year, and the market is paying attention to that open price.
Given the corrective price action on the 1-hour chart, we'd prefer to fade into move up towards or around 1.0700 for a move back towards those lows.
The bias remains bearish below 1.0730 (although keep in mind extra levels of volatility around the FOMC meeting can mess with such levels before the real move begins).
Some retracing in store? 🏪 EurusdAfter monstrous gains last week from EU bears, is the time up ? 🕓
0:0 Monthly timeframe
2:21 Weekly timeframe
5:28 Daily timeframe
7:00 4hr timeframe
10:27 1hr timeframe
There are a few scenarios that we can observe here for Eurusd this week .
1. Eurusd Pulls up prior to Interest rates ( Stays above 1.065 Daily support zone) and continues to retrace with Interest rates remaining the same or cut 25 points
2. Eurusd Pullback early in the week( 1.0706 & 1.0754) as we are currently observing which precedes a continuation to the downside (1.0608 & 1.055) with Interest rates as the catalyst
3. Eurusd rate increase and EURUSD bearish Continuation towards 1.055 Monthly/weekly support level
So price has continued to retrace EUR rate increase, PPI, and retail sales data from last thursday. Consumer sentiment on Friday was not great for USD and price retraced in favor of EUR as well. It's a sort of change of character as sellers ( USD Buyers) do not appear to be in control. Sometimes when you observe a short or medium term top or bottom formulate in the market, it begins with a blowoff push in the direction of the trend. This blowoff is great for those trading with the trend, but if those traders don't Take Profit they go into denial as price retraces and retraces against them. This move on thursday 9/14 is a 100 pips blowoff that may act as our catalyst for a short-medium term reversal in the market.
Eur/Usd (EURUSD) -> Trend ContinuationMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on EurUsd.
Since the beginning of 2008 EurUsd has been trading in a long term falling channel and just recently retested the upper resistance trendline of the channel.
In confluence with a retest of previous support, now turned resistance, and a retest of the 0.618 fibonacci retracement level, I do expect a trend resumption lower from here.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
EURUSD SHORT!Hey Guys!
Here we have the entry with the confirmation, so I explained my expectation in previous analysis,
So for now I expect to give us entry in the level we mentioned!
Take a proper risk management guys!
then wait for the final target which is bottom of the chart!
Let's go guys!
Any question you know how to reach me out!
@FxShzd
Time for a pullback in EUR/USD? 1.09 soon?Similar to GBP/USD, EUR/USD has been on a relentless downtrend
for the last few weeks. However, the price is at a very interesting level now.
With FOMC event coming up, let us analyze and see if there is a chance
for the bulls.
📌EUR/USD is currently around the key level at 1.0640. Price has in fact,
shown a small bounce from this key level.
📌If the support level at 1.0640 holds, I expect EUR/USD to go further
towards 1.0857 and 1.09.
📌 Traders can consider buying EUR/USD@1.0640-1.0660 with SL below
1.06 and initial TP at 1.0850 . The buy trade should be placed only
if the key level at 1.0640 remains unbroken .
"EURUSD Set to Rise: Support Holds Strong"#EURUSD expected to rise in the coming days the price is clearly reached the support which was around 1.06330, afterwards we can see that the market found a momentum and pushed up and considering the weak ascending broadening wedge pattern in 30M TF it looks week to push it back down. The price is expected to rise towards the trending line (@1.07614-1.08260)
🔥EURUSD BUY ( 1.06900 - 1.06500)
🟢TP1- 1.07200
🟢TP2- 1.07500
🟢TP3- 1.08000
🔴SL- 1.06180
EURUSD Analysis 18Sep2023Eurusd is still in the trend bearish. If you look at the formation of the bearish channel and the price responds positively to the trendline area and is currently corrected, there are two obstacles to return bullish, namely trendline that must be penetrated and minor high that can also be passed.
#EURUSD in correction phase--------SHORT TERMS CORRECTION---------
Although I am not bullish on EURUSD yet but it needs to correct until FED interest rate decision on Wednesday. I see clear path to the North now. But be aware of FOMC press release after the interest rate decision! New low is possible, I don't see any evidence of reversal.
EURUSD Long Term Buy Trading IdeaHello Traders
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EURUSD: Downtrend!EUR/USD languishes near six-month low, looks vulnerable below mid-1.0600
EUR/USD vulnerable after decisive break below 1.0700, resuming downtrend. A daily close below 1.0650 suggests the pair remains vulnerable to further losses as it looks for the following support to emerge at 1.0625 and then 1.0595. A rally above 1.0830 will change the current outlook to neutral.
EU - Weekly Timeframe Analysis Contrary to GBPUSD, EURUSD ended last week with a very bearish candle, couple with relative equal lows.
A point of interest for me at the moment is the Weekly iFVG residing above to be used as resistance, especially if price does not break the nearest Weekly Lows to the left with any conviction.
Based on my bullishness on DXY, I see EURUSD digging deeper towards Sellside. Also compared to GBPUSD's Commitment of Traders report, EURUSD had a significant decrease in large spec long positions. EURGBP should be quite explosive soon.
EURUSD 4-Hour Chart Analysis possible pull-backExamining the 4-hour chart of EURUSD, we observe that the price has reached our anticipated level of 1.07080. At this point, there is an 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July rally. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the current pair indicates oversold conditions, suggesting that EURUSD might be poised for a defensive rebound towards levels around 1.08050 to 1.08350.
However, it's important to note that from this rebound zone, there is a potential for the price to resume its downward movement, targeting the May 31st low of 1.06300. We anticipate the possibility of the price falling below this level, which could pave the way for a move towards the March 15th low of 1.05200. This latter level serves as our initial target for mid-term short positions.
Please remember that trading carries inherent risks, and market conditions can change swiftly. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always exercise prudent risk management and consider various factors when making trading decisions.
EURUSD 4H Generally the direction is downtrend EURUSD
Analyze
Generally, the direction is a downtrend and now the price is under sell pressure to reach 1.0733 and 1.0705 if can stable under 1.0733 then we will see more bearish
but if can stabilize under 1.0733 then the price will rise up and try to reach 1.0760 , 1.0790 , 1.0838
Support line: 1.0705, 1.0676 , 1.0639
resistance line: 1.0760 , 1.0790, 1.0838
EURUSD Analysis 14Sep2023The prices are moving towards the base area, aligning with last week's analysis of EURUSD. Dxy's movements suggest that it may weaken soon, and currently, Eurusd is approaching the base area. This could indicate a potential reversal in the near future, although there is also a chance of a fake-out before the reversal occurs.
EURUSDEURUSD is currently undergoing a retracement, approaching my initial entry point, which presents an opportune moment for a potential re-entry. Upon the completion of this retracement, I anticipate a continued downward trajectory for EURUSD, potentially leading to the establishment of a new lower low.
EURUSD: Overwhelmed by the USDThe ECB meets later in the session, with policymakers having to decide whether to raise its key interest rate to a record level, or pause its lengthy rate-hiking cycle as the eurozone’s economy deteriorates.
The central bank has raised rates at each of its past nine meetings and another increase of 25 basis points would lift the key deposit rate to 4%, the highest level since the euro was launched in 1999.
ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted at a pause this month at her press conference following the last meeting in late July, but Reuters reported on Tuesday that the central bank was set to raise its forecast for inflation next year to more than 3%, seemingly increasing the chances of a hike.
“We expect a very heated debate with a close outcome. While there are good arguments to justify both a pause and another rate hike, we are sticking to our view that the ECB will hike rates one final time,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
EURUSD: What to know in markets on Thursday!- EUR/USD is holding on to recovery gains near 1.0750 as the US Dollar (USD) remains behind according to mixed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
- The annual measure of US inflation rose 3.7% in August, compared with an expected 3.6% increase. CPI rose 0.6% in August, the biggest monthly increase of 2023 and in line with market estimates. Core CPI rose 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively, compared with estimates of 0.2% and 4.3%.
- US S&P 500 futures boost market optimism, as US data underpins Federal Reserve (Fed) pause bets.
- The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell to 3.21%.
- On Tuesday, Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment improved to -11.4 in September. However, the index measuring current conditions hit a three-year low at -79.4. "Financial market experts are even more pessimistic about the current economic situation in Germany than in August 2023," the ZEW Institute said.
- The ECB event will be decisive for the short-term direction of the EUR/USD pair, as the focus turns to the Fed's policy announcements next week.
EURUSD: ECB detects leaked reportEUR/USD retreated moderately on Tuesday. It jumped to 1.0769, its highest in a week during the Asian session, but then reversed course, holding above 1.0700. Markets await US consumer inflation data and the European Central Bank meeting.
Data released on Tuesday showed a mixed survey by Germany's ZEW. The current conditions index weakened further to -79.4 (lowest since August 2020) down from -71.3, while the Expected index reached -11.4, above the -15.0 forecast. The report provides more signals about a potential recession in Germany and the Eurozone. These factors weigh on expectations of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank.