SHORT EUR/USD from 1.1125"The trend is your friend" is a well worn FX trading adage.
Its meaningless.
The trend is your friend if the trend is heading in the same direction as your trade but if its not then the trend is your enemy.
EUR/USD is in an uptrend and has been since 1st August.
The price has now hit a level last seen on the 28th December 2023.
The last time the price was at this level, the trend ended and reversed 550 pips.
Anyone LONG on 28th December 2023, following the trend, would have lost heavily without a STOP in place.
Trends always end eventually and when they do they present a trading opportunity.
I have a SHORT EUR/USD trade on becuase:
a) we are at a historically significant high
b). H4 on the Andean Oscillator see the red SELL line rising off zero as the green BUY line ceases rising.
c).H1 Andean Oscillator see the red SLL line rising signifcantly as the green line falls.
d). RSI on H4 is decling from overbought levels.
e). MACD on H4 has seen the fast MA move south over the slow MA
GBP/USD daily candle is red (BEARISH)
NZD/USD daily candle is red (BEARISH).
Trading is gambling. No-one knows where the price of any instrument will be in an hour or in 4 hours so EUR/USD MAY decline from these levels.
This is the key - the price MAY decline.
I have a tight 25 pip STOP above the recent high so my risk/reward if EUR/USD does decline makes this a trade worth taking.
But just to return to my opening line - EUR/USD IS technically still in an uptrend which is why a STOP is MANDATORY (it should be for ALL trades).
We cannot rule out EUR/USD BULLS stepping in to try and drive the price higher particulalry as the USD is WEAK currently.
Eurusdoutlook
EurUsd- Buy dips should remain the strategyIn a previous EUR/USD analysis, I mentioned that the pair could reach the 1.11 resistance zone. Yesterday, the single currency indeed climbed to a high of 1.1088 against the dollar and is currently consolidating its recent gains.
The trend remains strongly bullish, and the trading strategy should continue to be "buy on dips." The ideal entry point for this strategy is the 1.1020-1.1030 confluence support zone, with a target of the 1.11 zone, at least for now.
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.11000 back down to demandPrice action for EUR/USD is very similar to GBP/USD (GU). If GU continues rising to mitigate that deeper supply, it aligns with the 1.11000 level in the 20-hour supply zone for EUR/USD. I expect the bullish pressure to gradually die down and for price to eventually mitigate this supply. Therefore, I don’t expect a major move on Monday, but this scenario could play out over the week.
If price sells off from the 20-hour supply zone, I will then wait for scenario (B), which involves the mitigation of the daily demand that caused a break of structure to the upside. There's also a refined version of this demand on the 19-hour time frame, which looks promising for buys to continue the bullish trend.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
- Bullish pressure is getting exhausted, suggesting a potential retracement.
- There is a lot of liquidity below, along with imbalances that need to be mitigated.
- This outlook aligns with expectations for the DXY to rise slightly.
- This is a counter-trend short-term trade with the goal of eventually rejoining the pro-trend.
P.S. If price reacts to the current imbalance and goes back down, I will look to enter buys to take price back up to the supply zone. However, buys are favorable due to the current bullish trend.
EURUSD will it pushes higher? **Monthly Chart**
EURUSD Last month's candle closed bearish after taking the previous month's high (May 2024) then sharply pushed and closed lower. However, this month's candle (Still active - July 2024) opened at the low of the range of the previous month only to push higher after it tested the demand zone around 1.06600 level. This has given a strong momentum for buyers to push the price at least towards breaking 1.1000 round number) supply zone.
* *Weekly Chart**
On the weekly chart EURUSD looks like it is in a large range between 1.06000 and 1.09150 from March 2024. The price attempted to break the high three times but it failed. This time with a close of a strong bullish candle last week, this suggests a continuation of the trend at least to break the high and test 1.1000 level. However, it is risky to buy at the high. So we will wait for a good retracement or corrective structure to provide us an opportunity to buy for another push to the upside. In this case, we will look at lower time frames for better risk-to-reward and good execution parameters.
**Daily Chart**
EURUSD remains bullish, however, it is moving through a critical price location near the previous daily swing and liquidity pool. The expectation for this week is for a corrective structure before one more bush to the upside at least to take the liquidity above 1.09160 and then move towards 1.1000.
EURUSD H1 TIME LONG TERM Sell TRADING IDEAHello Traders
In This Chart EURUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today EURUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
7 Dimension Sell Setup For EURUSDCore Analysis Method
Smart Money Concepts
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1: Swing Structure: A completely bearish structure with sweeps and mitigations. The market has taken proper inducement and completed its corrective swing move with multiple pullbacks. Now, after mitigating the external POI, it is once again forming a bearish internal structure from the premier zone. We are ready to go short with a classic smart money entry model.
Resistance: Supply zones already give strong rejections.
2: Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS
Reversal: V-Shape Recovery formed toward the extreme POI, now ready for another rejection.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS
Record session count candles are making too much bullish momentum but are unable to break the upper side POI, which seems to be nothing but a trap.
Inside: Narrow Range just started forming a range pattern.
3: Volume
We experienced massive volume during the last few 4H sessions, but they all failed to break the upper side resistance. It seems to be nothing but profit booking or execution volume here.
4: Momentum RSI
🟢 Since a long time, the market has been in a sideways to downtrend zone without any proper range shift. We also observed a powerful bearish divergence at the last rejected high area. No significant move in terms of momentum, indicating everything is in favor of bears. No need to change your mind.
5: Volatility Bollinger Bands
The last volatile move contraction is now about to end with expansion, with a squeeze breakout and walking on the band. It fulfills all the volatile parameters, but at the end, it was not able to break the upside resistance. This indicates nothing but some profit-taking or big player manipulation.
6: Strength ADX
In terms of ADX strength, this trend is in the bearish zone yet.
7: Sentiment
All parameters and geopolitical indicators tell us loudly that EUR is still bearish.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ POI Mitigated
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 1.09200
✋ Stop loss: 1.09500
🎯 Take profit: 1.06367
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 10RR
🕛 Expected Duration: 10 days
SUMMARY: The analysis supports a sell position based on Smart Money Concepts methodology, with the structure, patterns, volume, momentum, volatility, strength, and sentiment indicating a bearish move.
EURUSD ( UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE ) ( 4H )EURUSD
HELLO TRADERS
in the last week the price of OANDA:EURUSD trading between turning level at 1.094 and support level (1) at 1.088 , currently price stabilizing below turning level this allows them to lower prices for the support level (1) .
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , until trading below turning level .
Upward Zone : for an upward movement to occur , the price needs to break through the turning level at 1.094 , leading to rise that could reach the resistance level (1) 1.099 , if the price breaks and stabilizing above this level it may attempt to reach resistance zone between 1.102 and 1.105 .
Downward Zone: as long as the price remain below the turning level at 1.094 , it may drop towards the support level (1) at1.088 , if the price breaks this level with a 4h candle closing below it , it suggest further decline towards the support zone between 1.084 and 1.078 .
CORRECTIVE : currently price it will be attempt to retest to reach a turning level at 1.094 before dropping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.099 ,1.102 , 1.105 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.088, 1.084 , 1.078 .
EUR/USD Trade Setup 1-Hour TimeframeLast week, we anticipated EUR/USD would reach the major supply zone, but instead, the price formed a new, minor supply zone. This was followed by a doji and a close below candlestick pattern, providing a solid confirmation from the minor supply level.
The trade was executed based on this candlestick confirmation at that level.
Now, we wait.
Remember, once you have full confirmation on a trade, don’t overthink execute the trade and stay patient.
EUR/USD Longs from 1.08200 back up This idea aligns with my other pairs. After mitigating a daily imbalance, price is showing clear rejection and heading down to fill the imbalance left from last week's NFP news event.
If price reaches the extreme demand level on the 17-hour timeframe, I'll wait for a Wyckoff accumulation to buy back up. Meanwhile, I’m watching for a new supply zone to sell from or considering imminent sells as price is currently in a 4-hour supply zone.
Confluences for EU Sells:
Price broke structure to the upside on the higher timeframe.
Significant liquidity and imbalances remain to the upside.
A clean 17-hour demand zone triggered this bullish move.
Large imbalance above the demand zone that needs filling.
P.S. If price moves higher and surpasses the last swing high, I'll look to the deep supply on the 22-hour timeframe as the next drop-off point.
EURUSD ( INSIDE ASCENDING CHANNEL) ( 4H )EURUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency, the price is under up ward pressure , until trade above turning level at 1.091 .
Upward zone : In order to see an increase, the price needs to continues trading above a turning level at 1.091 , to reach resistance levels (1) around 1.098 , then if the price breaking resistance level (1) by open 4h candle above it indicates to reach a resistance level (2) at 1.102 , but stabilizing below this level it refers likely to reach a turning level .
Downward zone: Provided until the prices breaking turning level by open 4h candle below it, indicates a reach of the support level (1) at 1.084 , then breaking this level with a 4h or 1h open candle below is likely to reach the support level (2) at 1.078 .
Corrective level :Price may make a correction at 1.091 , before rising .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.098 , 1.102 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.084 , 1.078 .
1-Hour Chart AnalysisVist fourtrades website for market analysis link in the bio
Current Price: 1.09208
Trend: The daily and 4-hour charts remain bullish.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.09600 - 1.09700
Support: 1.09000 - 1.08900
The 1-hour chart indicates that EUR/USD is experiencing a short-term pullback within a broader bullish trend. The price is currently consolidating just below a key resistance level. If the price breaks above the resistance zone, it could target the upper resistance level around 1.09600 - 1.09700. Conversely, a failure to break above may result in a decline towards the support zone at 1.09000 - 1.08900.
EUR/USD Longs from 1.09200 back upThis week, my analysis has diverged from GU due to the bullish reaction in EU triggered by the NFP, causing a CHOCH (Change of Character) to the upside. The higher time frame structure has broken, creating clean demand zones. I now expect price to retrace to one of these demand zones before continuing its upward movement.
If price continues to rise and fully fills the imbalance, I anticipate a bearish reaction from the 22-hour supply zone, leading to a slowdown and distribution.
Confluences for EU Buys:
- NFP Impact: NFP caused a CHOCH to the upside, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish.
- Demand Zones: Clean demand zones have been left behind, signaling areas where price may pull back.
- Daily Imbalance: Price is currently in a daily imbalance, which may trigger a pullback.
- Bullish Trend: The current trend is bullish, supporting the continuation of upward movement.
P.S. If price reacts to the imbalance with a bearish pullback, this could provide buying opportunities from the 5-hour demand zone or the 17-hour extreme demand.
EURUSD Analysis week 32Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD gained on Friday after the Greenback was weakened by the poor US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data.
With the US economic data turning sour, investors extended their losses for two days on growing concerns about a broader recession in the domestic US economy, triggering a flight from risk assets and sending equity indices sharply lower.
Next week, the US will see the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July on Monday. Euro-wide retail sales for the year ending June are scheduled for release early Tuesday. This will give us a clearer picture of the current stage of the currency market.
Technical Analysis
GBPUSD formed a wide range after the NF release with the nearest support resistance in the range of 1.094 and 1.082. On the H4 timeframe, EMA 34 is looking to surpass EMA 89 to escape the short-term downtrend of the past week. Specifically, it proves that the price line has broken out of the downtrend line. The uptrend may face the highest resistance at 1.098 when the price breaks out of the immediate resistance at 1.094. On the other hand, recovery is necessary in an uptrend. The price trend may retest the broken trend zone around 1.083 after some investors take profit. If the downtrend is established, the strong support zone next week will be 1.075.
Resistance: 1.094-1.098
Support: 1.083-1.075
Trading Signals
BUY EURUSD zone 1.075-1.073 Stoploss 1.071
SELL GBPUSD zone 1.098-1.100 Stoploss 1.102
EUR/USD Trade Update on the Daily TimeframeEUR/USD has been pushing bullish and has reached a resistance level at 1.10100. We did not get a retest of the descending channel as predicted.
We will now be looking to sell from the resistance level if we can find solid trend reversal patterns and candlestick confirmations on the lower timeframes.
EURUSD ( UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE ) ( 4H )EURUSD
Tendency , the price is under bullish pressure , until trading above 1.076.
TURNING LEVEL : the price of this level at 1.076 , so as long as the price trade above this level indicates likely to reach a resistance level (1) , but if the breaking by open 4h candle below this level reach a support level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 1.084 , for reach this resistance level the price need stabilizing above a turning level , indicates have good selling in this level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 1.089 , for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : this level around 1.072 , for reach this support level the price need breaking a turning level , indicates have good buying in this level .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : support level at 1.067 , for reach this level will be breaking by open 4h candle below support level (1) .
PRICE MOVEMENT : currently price 1.079 , as long as the price trading above turning level , indicates to reach a resistance level (1) , then breaking this level likely to reach resistance level (2) , by breaking turning level indicates likely to reach support level (1) .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.084 , 1.089 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.072 , 1.067 .
EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade Idea 👉🔍In this video, we closely examine EURUSD. Recently, the EURUSD has experienced a strong bullish rally but now appears overextended and has reached a key resistance level. Given this overextended move, I'm looking for a buy opportunity on a Fibonacci retracement.
In the video, I share my insights on price action, market structure, and the trend. Remember, this content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading carries significant risk, so it's important to use responsible risk management strategies. 📊✅
EURUSD Potential Short during next week EURUSD go rally up during last week and consolidating in a Sell area. But I note with my analysis a trap of equal highs noted potential big boys will take before hitting the FVG for a real potential downtrend move.
EURUSD is a great pair to watch out on our list next week.
Good luck!
EUR/USD Trade Setup on 30-Minute TimeframeOn the 30-minute timeframe, the price has formed a demand level around 1.07800.
Note: The price is also showing bearish sentiment by breaking a major key 4-hour support level and retesting it.
If the price breaks through the demand level, there will be no buy entries.
Now we wait ⏰