EURUSD H1 17/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0505 1.0480EURUSD H1 17/12/2024 - Bearish pressure by macroeconomic fundamentals and a dovish ECB outlook
Technical Analysis Summary
D1 (Daily Chart)
Trend: Bearish with price trading well below the 200-SMA and stuck below the 20-EMA at 1.0540.
Indicators:
RSI: At 40.64, indicating bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic: Bearish crossover below 40, showing potential for further downside.
MACD: Negative histogram and signal line, confirming a bearish outlook.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0530 (20-EMA), 1.0560 (near-term swing high).
Support: 1.0480, 1.0460, and a broader target of 1.0435.
H4 (4-Hour Chart)
Trend: Consolidation in a bearish channel, with price unable to break above the 50-SMA.
Indicators:
RSI: At 42.81, reflecting bearish momentum.
Stochastic: Bearish crossover heading down towards oversold levels.
MACD: Bearish histogram, confirming bearish continuation.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0535 (50-SMA).
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460.
H1 (Hourly Chart)
Trend: Bearish, with price below the Ichimoku cloud, 50-SMA, and 200-SMA. Bearish momentum is strong after a recent failed attempt to recover.
Indicators:
RSI: At 38.13, signaling bearish momentum below 40.
Stochastic: Near 10, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting a potential short-term pullback.
MACD: Bearish histogram with a downward signal line.
ATR: At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.0505 (minor), 1.0530 (20-EMA).
Support: 1.0485, 1.0460, 1.0435.
M30 (30-Minute Chart)
Trend: Downtrend with price consolidating near support at 1.0485.
Indicators:
RSI: At 34.85, approaching oversold conditions.
Stochastic: At 12, suggesting a minor pullback may occur before further declines.
MACD: Negative momentum remains intact.
Correlated Financial Instruments
US Dollar Index (DXY):
DXY remains firm above 106, supporting a bearish EUR/USD outlook. USD strength continues as inflation data backs expectations of steady Fed policy.
Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold remains under pressure, further confirming USD strength.
Trade Plan for EUR/USD H1
Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation on Retracement
Rationale: Given the clear bearish momentum and inability to break key resistance levels, a retracement toward resistance offers a short-selling opportunity.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0505–1.0510 (near minor resistance).
Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above the 20-EMA on H1).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0460.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 2: Breakout Short Below 1.0485
Rationale: A clean break below 1.0485 support will confirm a bearish continuation towards the next key levels.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout).
Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above breakout resistance).
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0460.
TP2: 1.0435.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2.
Trade Setup 3: Intraday Scalping Short (M30–H1 Levels)
Rationale: If a short-term pullback occurs, use M30 chart resistance as an entry.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 1.0500 (psychological level).
Stop-Loss: 1.0515.
Take-Profit Levels:
TP1: 1.0485.
TP2: 1.0475.
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
Eurusdsell
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.05200 or 1.05800 back downI expect price to continue its bearish trend, providing potential shorting opportunities. My focus is on the supply zones I’ve marked at the 19-hour and 17-hour timeframes. I’ll wait for price to reach one of these zones and observe if it respects these structural points.
If price breaks above these zones, it would indicate a shift in market sentiment to the upside. However, as long as these zones hold, they remain valid levels for the trend to continue.
Confluences for EU Sells:
- Price has broken structure to the downside, leaving a clean supply zone.
- A corrective move has formed, likely preceding a continuation of the bearish trend.
- Significant liquidity resides below, presenting clear downside targets.
- Overall market structure remains bearish, making this a pro-trend trade idea.
- DXY shows strong bullish momentum, supporting the bearish outlook for EU.
P.S. If price breaks structure further to the downside without tapping into my zones, I’ll wait for a new supply zone to form after the next structural break. Have a great trading week, everyone!
Bear Alert: When the Market Plays Dress-Up!Alright, traders, let’s talk about what’s happening here. This chart? Oh, it’s the drama queen of patterns—the classic Head and Shoulders. It’s the “I’m tired of pretending to go up” signal, and boy, did it deliver. 💔
Let’s break it down (literally):
1️⃣ The Head and Shoulders 🧠💪👖
First, we’ve got the Left Shoulder flexing, then the Head pretending it’s on top of the world 🌍, and finally, the Right Shoulder, which just gave up and said, “Nope, I’m out.”
Once the neckline broke? 🚨 Lights out. It’s game over for the bulls.
2️⃣ The Bear Flag Formation 🚩🐻
After that dramatic neckline drop, we saw a little consolidation—aka the bear flag. It’s like the market paused to catch its breath before diving straight into the abyss. 😱
3️⃣ RSI Drama 📉:
The RSI is down there chilling in the “oversold” lounge, but let’s be honest—oversold in a bear market is like yelling “fire” in a burning building. 🚒 It’s not a bounce until the trend says so.
What’s Next?
💥 TP Incoming:
If you measure the height of the Head and apply it below the neckline, this thing could go even lower. Think of it as the final stage dive. 🎤🎸
💡 For the Shorts:
If you’re already in, congrats—you’re riding this bear like a pro. 🐻
If not, you might want to wait for a dead cat bounce (poor cat 😢) before hopping in.
Final Thoughts:
The market is throwing tantrums, and the Head and Shoulders just served as its resignation letter. Bulls? Pack it up. Bears? 🐻 This is your time.
Remember, no paywalls, no hidden agendas—just raw, unfiltered trades and analysis like this one. If you’re ready to step into the arena, we’re here for it. 🚀
Stay savage, stay relentless, and keep an eye on those charts.
EUR/USD's Déjà Vu: Ready to Ride the Next Wave?So, here’s the deal with EUR/USD – it’s throwing out a pretty juicy head-and-shoulders pattern. If you’re not familiar, just think of it like this: the market is literally shrugging its shoulders, and when it does that, it usually means it’s getting ready to slide downhill. And guess what? We’ve seen this exact move before... twice. 📉
Pattern Repeat: Déjà Vu, But Profitable
Flashback 1: Way back on the left side of the chart, there was a head-and-shoulders (that’s like the market’s favorite I’m-outta-here move). It shrugged its shoulders, and then – boom – dropped about 400 pips. Nice little payday if you were ready for it.
Flashback 2: Middle of the chart, same thing. It pulled another head-and-shoulders, neckline broke at around 1.0920, and down it went about 350 pips. It’s like clockwork – see a shoulder, expect the floor to drop soon after. 🕰️
Now, Let’s Talk About This Current Setup
We’re seeing another head-and-shoulders pattern forming on the right side. And here’s the fun part: if it follows the same pattern as the last two, we’re in for a similar ride.
Neckline Level: This one's got its neckline (the line where we know things could start falling fast) around 1.0740. And look – it’s already cracked below that. This means we’re potentially heading towards our next target.
Targets 🎯
Alright, so where’s this going if it drops? Here’s the roadmap:
First Stop: 1.0460 – This level’s like a speed bump. If price respects it, we might see a little bounce, but if it doesn’t, the road is wide open for more downside action. 🚗💨
Next Destination: 1.0175 – Think of this as the next major support level. Historically, every time EUR/USD has done its head-and-shoulders thing, it didn’t just stop at the first target. Nope. It kept on trucking, usually another few hundred pips. So if you’re looking for a bigger move, this level’s worth watching. 📉
Ultimate Bear Zone: 0.9650 – Now, if we’re talking about a full-blown trend continuation, then 0.9650 is the jackpot. That’s where things could get seriously interesting. But hey, let’s not get ahead of ourselves – let’s take this step by step. 🚀
How to Play This 🕹️
If you’re looking to trade this, here’s the game plan:
Entry Point: If the price slides down to 1.0460, that’s a prime spot to watch. If it hesitates here and starts bouncing, you might see some action going back up a bit – maybe a chance to reset or take some off the table if you’re short.
But if it breaks through 1.0460 like it’s not even there? Buckle up for 1.0175.
Stop-Loss: Look, head-and-shoulders has been reliable here, but we still need to protect ourselves. Set a stop above 1.0550. Worst case? You cut your loss if the market decides to play tricks.
Profit Goals: Go for 1.0460 first, and if things are looking spicy, aim for 1.0175. And if we’re really riding this bear wave – there’s that 0.9650 ultimate bear zone waiting at the end. 🐻💰
Quick Recap
EUR/USD is giving us a déjà vu setup with this head-and-shoulders action. This pattern has been on point the last couple of times – each breakdown led to big drops, so history’s on our side. If this one plays out similarly, 1.0460 is the first floor, 1.0175 is the basement, and 0.9650... well, that’s where we hit the goldmine if the bears take over completely.
Keep it simple. Watch for those levels, manage your risk, and let’s see if EUR/USD does what it’s done before. You know what they say – the trend is your friend... until it’s not. 😉
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.09200 back down This week’s analysis for EUR/USD is somewhat different from GBP/USD. I expect price to continue dropping from one of the two supply zones I’ve identified. I’ll be watching for a potential Wyckoff distribution pattern to form at these zones. Once I see signs of distribution, I’ll look to enter short positions, targeting the liquidity pool below.
If, during the week’s election events, price drops to fill the gap left at Sunday’s open, I see potential for buys from the 1-hour demand zone. I’ll wait for signs of price slowing down and accumulating to identify good entry points for long trades.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
- Price is approaching a premium supply area.
- Significant liquidity lies below, including untouched Asian session lows.
- The higher timeframe trend remains bearish.
- The DXY still shows strong bullish pressure.
P.S. Although there’s been a recent shift in character to the upside, I still view EUR/USD as bearish on the higher timeframe, especially with the dollar’s ongoing bullish momentum. I’ll observe price behavior within my points of interest to determine the best entries.
EURUSD: Dollar holds steady as Fed minutes emergeThe US dollar remained steady today, providing some respite for the yen and other major currencies after rising to a seven-week high last week. Market participants are taking a moment to assess the future trajectory of US interest rates.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting today, which will reveal the discussions that led to a 50 basis point rate cut, agreed by all but one policymaker amid a seemingly worsening labour market.
EUR/USD BEARISH MOVEMENTHello Guys,
I have shared my idea regarding this major pair. As you can see the pair did not make any retracement but more based on the analysis I made it will keep going downstream till it reaches the point 1.07780. Please do let me know your ides as well. I'm still learning, so please forgive me if my analysis is wrong. Thank you.
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EUR/USD +50 Pips 0 Drawdown , New Entry Valid For Who Missed It This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
EUR/USD Made H&S Reversal Pattern , Time To Sell It ?This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
EU W Bearish Idea 3/17/24There is a chance that price could continue bullish from here, BUT I can NOT ignore the fact that there is a weekly head and shoulder possibly printing. Which will send price bearish for quite a bit.
On top of that, price has not really broken this area of price since 2021. This is a key level of price for EU. There has been 4 bearish engulfing candles in this area on the monthly, plus if you FIB the last bearish swing on the monthly price is at the 50% area of that FIB.
So I am setting alerts and watching price to see which way it wants to go.
EURUSD: Short-term short, medium-term long
In the short term, there is a need for a rebound in the DXY, so if you are trading related currencies like EUR/USD, it’s preferable to focus on short positions. The main resistance for the DXY rebound is around 102.
Analyzing from a broader trend perspective, the DXY is highly likely to break below 100 in the coming period. This can be used as a reference for medium-term trading of related currencies
EURUSD at a Tipping Point: Explosive Breakout or Breakdown?Is the EURUSD on the verge of a major breakout, or are we heading for another disappointing retreat?
Once again, we’re sitting above the 1.10 zone, and the price has moved into the upper range territory. Since early 2023, EURUSD has been stuck in a weekly range between 1.05 and 1.104, with only one quick rally to 1.12 that was quickly faded.
Are we finally ready to see a clear breakout higher, or will the price fail again and fall back into the range? Let's take a closer look at what the charts are indicating.
Zooming into the daily charts, we can see the range more clearly. Yesterday, the price spiked up to create a new high for the year before quickly selling off (see image below).
Shifting to the 4-hour charts and adding the MACD indicator, a clear bearish SELL signal has appeared, indicating that buying momentum is beginning to fade. Given the HTF price zone we’re in, a sell-off to at least 1.093 seems likely.
Now, I’m waiting for my TRFX indicator to give a sell signal on the 2-hour or 4-hour timeframe.
The first target for this position is 1.093. I’ll then re-analyze the price action at that level. If selling momentum picks up, a deeper correction toward the bottom of the range could be on the cards. My stop loss will be set above 1.11.
This week's WEEKLY candle close will be crucial. If we get a clear break and close above 1.105, a move up to 1.12 is highly likely. I’ll be closely watching for any reaction to the US GDP today.
If the above scenario plays out, I will shift my strategy from selling to buying on any short-term retrace to 1.105, targeting 1.12.
For now, it's a short setup until the market indicates otherwise.
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$EURUSD | Sell Trade H4 | Execution | Technical Confluences:
- Stochastics just reversed off Overbought conditions in H4
- Price bounced off 123% Fibo Extension levels which coincides with a Supply Zone from before and also the top of a small Parallel Channel
- Looking at it move towards at least the lower end of the Parallel Channel
Fundamental Confluences:
- With so much of rate cut hype priced into the markets, it seems that market will start to consolidate and start profit taking.
- There are a few speakers who came out to say they don't seem to be in a rush to cut like what the market expect.
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Taking my 1st position for this FX:EURUSD sellb trade.
Targeted trade entry and stops can be seen in the highlighted zone. Blue for Profit Target and Orange for Stop Loss Target.
Risk/Reward ratio of 2.1.
DYOR.
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