EURUSD Channel Up favors buying but keep an eye on this.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the February 28 Low and its current Bearish Leg almost reached the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. That is where the previous Bearish Leg made a Higher Low (March 27) and rebounded.
This keeps for now the bullish trend intact and it will remain so for as long as the price remains within the Channel Up. The short-term Target is the -0.236 Fib extension at 1.17500. If on the other hand it breaks below the Channel Up, be ready to take the small loss and sell towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 1.08500, which is the level that supported the market on that previous March 27 Low.
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Eurusdsignals
EURUSD – Bear Flag Before Further Drop?Like most of the market, EURUSD reacted strongly on April 22–23 with a sharp move down. Since then, price has entered a consolidation phase — and thIS pause has now taken the shape of a bear flag, a classic continuation pattern that often leads to further correction once confirmed.
📉 Key levels to watch:
1.1350 – Initial trigger for the flag break
1.1300 – Confirmation of bearish momentum
Target: 1.1100
Invalidation: A return above 1.1500 would negate the pattern and call for reassessment.
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EURUSD: Bullish Price Action Confirmed?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest price action analysis for EURUSD.
The price completed a recent correction movement with
quite an extended consolidation within a horizontal range
and a symmetrical triangle.
The violation of 2 intraday resistances with a bullish imbalance
indicate a highly probable finalization of the accumulation.
Probabilities are high that the pair is returning to a bullish trend now.
Goal - 1.1478
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EURUSD below its 4H MA50 signals more selling.The EURUSD pair broke last Wednesday below its 4H MA50 for the first time since the start of April and is now consolidating under it. Within its 3-month Channel Up, this has always been a signal of more downtrend to come as it was technically halfway through the Bearish Legs of the pattern.
Given that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is the medium-term Support, our Target is at 1.12500, just above the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. Check also the 4H RSI sequences between these 3 Bearish Legs. It is exactly ranging between the levels it did half-way through those Legs.
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EurUsd- Pay attention to 1.1310Recap:
As discussed in last week's update, EURUSD bulls started losing momentum, and a correction became likely.
Current situation:
• The move from 1.1400 to 1.1577 appears to have been a blow-off top.
• Price is now stuck in the middle of the range, showing signs of weakness.
Key level to watch:
• 1.1310 is critical support.
• A confirmed break below could open the path toward the 1.1100 area.
Trading plan:
➡️ I am closely monitoring the 1.1310 zone for a potential breakdown and continuation lower.
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EUR/USD: Is the Uptrend Losing Steam?EUR/USD has had an exceptionally strong month, gaining over 7% from bottom to top – one of the best performances in EUR’s history against the dollar.
But now, things are starting to shift.
🧭 Possible Long-Term Trend Change?
Beyond the impressive rally, the bigger story might be the potential shift in the long-term trend. However, after such a sharp move up, a correction is not only likely – it may already be underway.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
- Price pushed above the key 1.15 psychological level but failed to hold momentum.
- A bearish consolidation is forming.
- A classic Head and Shoulders pattern appears to be developing, with a neckline near 1.13.
- A break of that level could open the door for a deeper retracement, with a target around 1.11.
🛠️ Trading Plan:
I’m looking to sell rallies, ideally near 1.1450, to maintain a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
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EURUSD 3 TARGETS for selling 3 TOPS. The 5 year cheat-sheet!The EURUSD pair opened the week with a strong rally already due to the fundamentals surrounding the recent Tariff news. The 1W RSI is overbought at 74.00 and it hasn't been that high since January 22 2018. That was a long-term Top for EURUSD that initiated a 2-year downtrend until the March 2020 COVID crash and the start of massive rate hiking.
Even the last two times that the RSI came close to such overbought levels, the pair started a 6-month peak formation pattern with 3 Highs that offered solid short entries before the eventual larger downtrend. Those periods were January 30 2023 - July 17 2023 and August 31 2020 - May 24 2021.
Given that EURUSD is now trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and just formed a 1D MA50/ 1W MA50 Bullish Cross, we are closer to High (1) than not, since every time that is formed close to the standard +16.19% rise from the bottom.
For those successive Highs, our long-term sell targets will be 1.12500, 1.13250 and 1.12000 on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level respectively.
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EURUSD Good sell opportunity on this short-term rejectionThe EURUSD pair got an initial rejection near its 2-month Higher Highs trend-line with the 4H RSI an a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs) since April 03.
The last pull-back was -2.31% and made double contact with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) before rebounding. In fact all Higher Highs rejections hit at least he 4H MA50 before rebounding.
As a result, we see a strong short-term sell opportunity now, which even though could technically reach 1.12150 (-2.30% drop), it is advised to take profit once contact with the 4H MA50 is made.
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EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest support and resistance analysis for
EURUSD for the week ahead.
Resistance 1: 1.1456 - 1.1552 area
Resistance 2: 1.1640 - 1.1700 area
Resistance 3: 1.1860 - 1.1915 area
Support 1: 1.1150 - 1.1280 area
Support 2: 1.0730 - 1.0900 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EURUSD reached a 20-month Resistance. Potential for heavy sell.The EURUSD pair has almost hit the Lower Highs trend-line that started on the July 18 2023 High and immediately got rejected. The Resistance Zone that connects the last 3 major Highs within a 20-month span, follows the same pattern, especially with the 1D RSI Lower Highs peak formation.
Right now we are on the Lower High rejection, which on the previous three peaks hit initially the Support 1 level and then at least the Higher Lows trend-line (if not lower). As a result, we expect heavy selling to start on EURUSD, targeting 1.0730 and 1.0500 in succession.
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EurUsd could continue to the downsideTwo weeks ago, I mentioned that while a new high was possible, the bigger move in EUR/USD should be to the downside.
Indeed, the pair dropped from above 1.0900 and recently found support around the 1.0730 zone.
The recent recovery appears corrective, unfolding in a flag pattern, and I expect another leg down toward 1.0600.
Bearish confirmation comes with a daily close below 1.0750, and my preferred strategy is to sell rallies.
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EURUSD 4H Bearish Cross starting the peak formation.The EURUSD pair posted a strong rebound last week, which is along the lines of our long-term bearish structure estimate, similar to the September 2024 Top.
The 4H MA50/100 Bearish Cross that was formed on Thursday, simply confirms that the pattern goes according to plan as on September 06 2024, the price got rejected after its completion and then rebounded to test Resistance 1 before the ultimate market peak.
We still expect a similar development, with our ultimate long-term Target being 1.03650, just above Support 1.
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EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest support and resistance analysis
for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EUR/USD Short Trade Setup – Key Resistance Rejection & Bearish TEntry Zone:
The entry for the short trade is around 1.08405 - 1.08412.
The price is expected to rise into this area before reversing downward.
Stop Loss:
Positioned at 1.08760 - 1.08770, above the resistance zone marked in purple.
This ensures the trade is invalidated if price moves too high.
Take Profit Levels (TP):
TP1: 1.07987
TP2: 1.07620
TP3: 1.07107
Final Target: 1.06604
Indicators Used:
200 EMA (Blue Line): At 1.08405, acting as resistance.
30 EMA (Red Line): At 1.08086, showing short-term trend direction.
Overall Trade Idea:
Price is expected to reject the 1.08412 resistance zone and move downward.
If the price respects the resistance, a strong bearish move toward the 1.06604 target is anticipated.
Potential Trade Plan:
Sell at: ~1.08405
Stop Loss: ~1.08760
Take Profit: Staggered at TP1, TP2, TP3, or full exit at 1.06604.
EURUSD Forming the new long-term Top.The EURUSD pair continues to trade within a Bullish Megaphone pattern and is about to complete today the 4th straight red 1D candle.
This is technically a top formation as the 1D RSI went from overbought (above 70.00) to below 60.00. Technically a downtrend gets confirmed when the price breaks below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) so until it does, the probability for another short-term bounce there isn't small. This is what took place in September 2024.
Once the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a test of Support 1 at 1.03650, as it happened on October 23 2024.
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EURUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week
Here is my latest structure analysis for EURUSD;
Resistance 1: 1.0944 - 1.0955 area
Support 1: 1.0804 - 1.0834 area
Support 2: 1.0598 - 1.0630 area
Support 3: 1.0515 - 1.0533 area
Support 4: 1.0359 - 1.0377 area
Support 5: 1.0727 - 1.0290 area
Support 6: 1.0717 - 1.0240 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EURUSD Head and Shoulders triggering a sell.The EURUSD pair is about to complete a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the 4H time-frame and so far it is keeping the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) intact. The last H&S formation we saw was completed on January 30 and it resulted in a -3.06% drop.
Given that the longer term pattern is a Bullish Megaphone with the H&S being on its top and the 4H RSI displaying the same Bearish Divergence it did in late January, we expect a similar pull-back to occur. Our Target is 1.06150, representing both a potential -3.06% drop and a contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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EURUSD on its 1W MA200 after 5 months.The EURUSD pair hit on Friday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 5 months (since October 03 2024). This is a major Resistance level which initiated a strong -4.00% decline on December 28 2023.
In fact -4.00% declines have been quite common for EURUSD in the past 2 years. However, the pair's strongest Resistance level has been the 1M MA100 (red trend-line) which has formed both market tops on October 01 2024 and July 18 2023.
As a result, the most optimal sell entry would be when the 1W RSI hits its Resistance Zone, with the price probably close to the 1M MA100 within the Lower Highs Zone. On the long-term, the R/R has shifted dramatically in favor of selling right now. If the rejection does happen on the 1W MA200 eventually and won't close any 1W candle above it, we have a short-term Target at 1.04600 (-4.00% decline) and if the rejection takes place higher, we will be expecting a bottom near parity with a technical Target at 1.00500 (Lower Lows Zone).
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Fatigue in EUR/USD: Time to Sell the Rallies?Last week, EUR/USD saw an explosive rise, breaking above my 1.06 target and even surpassing the next resistance at 1.08.
However, signs of fatigue are emerging, and there appears to be significant selling liquidity around the 1.09 level.
With the DXY currently in a support zone and potentially set for an upward reversal, I expect EUR/USD to decline and correct its 500-pip rally.
A break back below 1.08 would confirm this scenario, potentially leading to a test of the 1.06 zone.
Selling rallies near 1.09 could offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity.
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EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis for New Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and important
supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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EURUSD Channel Up testing 1D MA200 after 4 months!The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the January 13 Low and after the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) bounce, the current Bullish Leg is testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is the first 1D MA200 test since November 06 2024 and happens to be at the top of the Channel Up with the 1D RSI almost overbought (70.00). These conditions create a low risk opportunity for a short-term Sell. Our Target is the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1D MA50 at 1.04500.
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EURUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
With the Friday's turmoil in the White House,
EURUSD went down sharply.
The price broke and closed below a significant daily support.
It is a strong event that increases the probabilities that the market
will continue going lower.
Next support will be 1.032
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