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Eurusdsignals

EURUSD got rejected on the Pivot but the 4H MA50 holds the keyEURUSD made a valiant rebound attempt last Friday, the strongest green 1D candle in months, but today that got rejected on the Internal Pivot trend-line since May 05, following the vaccine news on Omicron and Powell's comments on inflation. In my opinion the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) will play a critical role moving forward. As long as the candles close above it, then there is a higher chance of resuming the rebound towards (and slightly above) the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in a similar way as the late August rebound (also the 1D RSI is on a strong multi-month Support). That would make an ideal technical top on the Lower Highs trend-line since June 01. In that case our target is 1.15000. A 1D candle close above the June 01 trend-line, constitutes a strong bullish break-out with an upside extension on the 1.16900 Resistance. On the other hand, every candle close below the 4H MA50 places more downside risk on the dominant long-term bearish trend towards 1.11300. After all, the latest pattern that has emerged is a Bearish Megaphone (portrayed in blue) and 1.11300 would make contact with its Lower Lows trend-line. The catalyst of the week is the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. Trade accordingly and responsibly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD broke above its Channel Down and is testing the 1H MA200EURUSD has been on a multi-month downtrend. Today howver the price broke above its short-term Channel Down on the 1H time-frame and is currently testing the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since November 10. A closing above it should be taken as a bullish signal towards the higher Resistance levels (first 1.13750) which as you see happen to be somewhat aligned with the Fibonacci extensions. Taking into account the fact that the RSI on the 1D time-frame is oversold and formed a Double Bottom yesterday, it is possible that the long-term downtrend is losing its momentum and this is the start of a new month long rebound. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
EURUSD The 1W RSI hasn't been that low since 2015 !!In fact the RSI on the weekly (1W) time-frame, which is now around 28.25, hasn't been that low since the April 06 2015 weekly candle. That alone shows just how oversold the EURUSD pair is at the moment, even on the long-term scale. This doesn't mean that it is time for the dominant yearly trend to shift from bearish to bullish (has been bearish for the whole year) but such oversold levels should provide a technical relief rebound. In fact, since April 2015, every time the 1W RSI traded close to that level it jumped to at least a Fibonacci level higher. Assuming the current structure replicates to a certain extent the Channel Down of 2018 - 2019, then we could see a rebound back towards 1.16000 which is where the Lower Highs trend-line is. If it marginally breaks it, as it did on September 24 2018, then it could reach as high as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, which is at 1.17152. Keep in mind that the next Fibonacci level to the downside is very close, the 0.618 at 1.1938 and those Fibonacci trend-lines have been fairly accurate at forming Support and Resistance levels. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
5
EURUSD Strong buy signal after a long timeEURUSD has hit (and marginally broken) the Lower Lows trend-line of the June Channel Down. There is a strong buy signal emerging after quite some time but the one main condition is that the price should always close 1D candles inside the Channel. As long as it does and given that the RSI just hit its 6 month Support Zone, it is more likely for the pair to bounce back towards the Lower Highs trend-line (top) of the Channel Down and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) towards 1.1590. There is one possibility to even break above the Channel and test the 1.1690 short-term Resistance due to so far repeating (to a certain extent) the July - August fractal. The price then made a Double Top on the 1.19100 (long-term) Resistance following an RSI Double Bottom on the Support Zone. The Double Top was above the 1D MA50 and if the pattern is replicated again it will be above the 1D MA50. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
5
EURUSDAs I said last weeks ... EURUSD continued to make range in the area I told you about! in the next period ... even if maybe it will test the 1.16600 area, I will look for SELL towards 1.14760 or even 1.14 THIS WEEK...as I said last week the EU went down and closed the week under strong resistance from 14,800! this week I will expect a strong pullback move of 60-80 pips and after .... DOWN AGAIN NOTE: Please, give a LIKE if you find this idea useful! GREAT ATTENTION: *This information is not a Financial Advice.
by BloomFX_SIGNALS
2
EURUSD How to trade the rest of the monthAt the start of November I posted the trading plan for the month: As you see, since the 1.15220 Support (then Triple Bottom) broke, EURUSD hit the 1.14470 downside Target which has (so far) made a perfect Low on the June Lower Lows (June LL) trend-line. This brings me to this analysis where I will lay out the trading plan and possibilities for the rest of November. The June Lower Lows trend-line is part of a wider Channel Down within which the pair has been trading since June 16. I call that Channel Down (B) (blue pattern). It is (B) because a little earlier than that, since the June 01 High, we can draw another Channel Down, which I call (A) (dashed lines). As you see, Channel Down (A) has a better fit on its Lower Highs (red arrows), while Channel Down (B) on its Lower Lows (green arrows), which is practically the June LL trend-line that helped us come up with the 1.15220 downside target. The possibilities are two: * As long as the June LL trend-line holds, there are more chances for a rebound towards first 1.1600 (where contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) may be made) and if Channel Down (A) breaks its dashed Lower Highs trend-line, then one last extension towards the 1.1690 Resistance. This would follow a fractal from the previous Lower High on September 03 where the price made a Double Top. * If the June LL trend-line breaks, then Channel Down (B) gets invalidated and the price will most likely seek the Lower Lows trend-line of Channel Down (A) towards 1.13000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD The 4H MA200 is the key on the short-termThe pair is currently struggling at the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This level of Resistance has only broken once (October 28) since September 16 and on the short-term holds the key to the current trend as a break above it most likely confirms that EURUSD is repeating the tilted Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern of mid October which eventually topped on the (dotted) Higher Highs trend-line. Target 1: 1.16650 on a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). Target 2: 1.17100 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of 1.19100 and just below the Higher Highs trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
2
EURUSD | Perspective for the new week In the wake of a stronger than expected US labour market report for October 2021, the Euro appear to be taking a bounce from fresh annual lows under $1.1520. Despite citing a Double Top pattern with a successful Breakdown of Neckline confirming a reversal pattern, I am looking forward to taking a "quick" countertrend in the coming week with my eyes still on the long-term expectation of a Bearish momentum evolving. Tendency: Uptrend (Bullish) Structure: Supply & Demand | Reversal pattern (Double Bottom) Observation: i. Since the beginning of September 2021, the Euro recorded a 3.39% drop against the Dollar and this is represented by the prior leading price action (Bearish Impulse leg). ii. And since hitting bottom around $1.15200, the Bearish momentum appears to fizzle out as Buyers find what looks like a Demand level at this zone in the last 6 weeks to incite a Correction phase. iii. It is also appropriate to note here that finding a bottom in a zone ($1.15200 area) that has a memory as far back as 2017 for the demand for Euro might not be a coincidence and seems to be a very good opportunity to take a "quick" countertrend😊. iv. With recent structure and considering the Double Top pattern identified on the Weekly chart, I suspect that this potential correction phase will stall at the Neckline zone to incite a risk of further decline for the Euro. v. Double Bottom: We do have a highly bullish technical reversal pattern forming at this juncture in the market with structure revealing a change in trend and a momentum reversal from the prior leading price action (major downtrend). vi. Even as we await a confirmation which will happen if the price breaks out of resistance level @ $1.16750 (Neckline of potential Double Bottom) which equals the high between the two prior lows; I am willing to take a long position at a break and stay above of $1.16100 with an opportunity to add to the existing position at a Breakout/Retest of Neckline in the coming week(s)... Trade consciously!😊 Trading plan: BUY confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:4 Potential Duration: 5 to 12days NB: This speculation might be considered to make individual decisions on the lower timeframe. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long
by darcsherry
8
EURUSD Potential Triple Bottom. How to trade November.EURUSD is having a new sell-off following the Fed Rate Decision yesterday. From a fundamental perspective, the market won't stabilize until the Nonfarm Payrolls report is released on Friday. Until then, from a technical stand-point, we may have a Triple Bottom formation if today's session closes above the 1.15220 Support. If it does, it is more likely to see the pair rebound back towards the 1.16900 Resistance but buyers should target a little lower (e.g. 1.16700) as the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is currently at 1.16900 but falling. Basically the Higher Highs trend-line since October 04 along with the 1.15220 Support, form a Triangle pattern, so until it breaks, the trades should be sell at the top buy at the bottom. Practically a break above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (1.1716) justifies further buying above the Triangle. Similarly a break below the 1.1520 Support calls for a sell break-out towards the long-term Lower Lows trend-line of June (rough estimate 1.14470). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
3
EURUSD major break above the 4H MA200, 1st time since SeptemberEURUSD has made the 2nd major bullish break-out since breaking above the 4H MA50, as it broke today above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since September 16. Check my Double Bottom idea on the RSI bullish divergence 15 days ago: This is a major break-out and it restores the bullish sentiment on the medium-term (4H time-frame). A break above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) should start restoring the bullish sentiment on the long-term as well. Technically the RSI is approaching the October 19 High, which is where the price also made a Higher High at 1.16700. If rejected again on the 1D MA50, I expect the formation of a Channel Up and a pull-back towards the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), which is expected to support if the pattern is to hold. If 1.15800 (current Support) breaks though, expect flash selling towards 1.15220. A closing on the 1D chart above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), sets target at the 1.19100 Resistance long-term. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD Channel Up on 4H. Buy Signal.This is an update to last week's analysis where I highlighted the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the key to a potential uptrend: The price eventually did break above the 4H MA50 and as expected EURUSD posted a sustainable rebound. This sustainability is translated into a Channel Up pattern on this 4H time-frame. This pattern not only broke above the 4H MA50 but also above the 1.1640 Resistance. With the RSI still on Higher Lows, which was essentially for me in identifying this hidden bullish divergence, I am expecting a test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which has been intact since September 16. That is just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, so a closing above it, should restore the bullish bias on the medium-term too towards the 1.19100 Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD RSI Bullish Divergence but 4H MA50 is the keyEURUSD has been on a downtrend since the September 03 Double Top on the 1.19100 Resistance. The price action has been below (never had a 4H candle closing above) the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 07 and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) since September 16. Unless the pair closes a 4H candle above the 4H MA50, the trend remains bearish but recently the RSI has been on a Bullish Divergence as it is trading on Higher Lows as opposed to the price's Lower Lows. Technically if the price closes a 4H candle above the MA50, then the short-term target would be 1.16400 being the most recent Lower High (Resistance 1). Closing above the Resistance 1, opens the way to the 4H MA200 which is approaching the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Similary (for the longer-term) closing a 4H candle above the MA200, sets a target on the 1.19100 Resistance. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
4
EURUSD update on long-term thesis. Deadcat bouce after the NFP?Last time I updated my long-term perspective (on the 1W time-frame) on EURUSD was in July, when the price was still struggling to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and presented the idea that the long-term price action might follow the Q3/Q4 2018 bearish fractal: As you see the pair followed the fractal precisely as the 1W MA50 was never recovered from its last rejection and the price made consecutive Lower Lows. On the August 13 2018 1W candle, EURUSD broke marginally below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but recovered instantly on the same week and that initiated a rally (or dead-cat bounce if you like) back near the previous Resistance (1.18575), still below the 1W MA50. Then the downtrend was resumed with many successive Lower Lows until the COVID market bottom. Right now the pair is on a similar situation with the current 1W candle making a wick below the 1W MA200. If it recovers before the week closes (of course much will depend upon the Nonfarm Payrolls report which will be released on Friday), then we might have a similar situation as mid August 2018, i.e. a dead cat bounce towards the Resistance which is currently at 1.1910. This thesis holds unless the price breaks (and closes a week) above the 1W MA50, which invalidates the downtrend. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
8
EURUSD hit the 1W MA200, first time since July 2020!EURUSD has been trading within a Channel Down ever since the January 06 2021 market Top, so practically since the start of 2021. Today's price action has give 2 important benchmarks: a) it hit the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down for the first time since March 31 2021 but more importantly b) it hit the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) for the first time since July 14 2020!! This chart right above maybe even more illustrative as it is on the 1W time-frame and with that I want to show that the last time that EURUSD tested the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line on that chart) as a Support coming on a downtrend, was in August 2018. Straight after it initiated a +4.50% rebound towards the 1W MA50 before resuming the downtrend in September. It would be best however to take one step at a time and look to trade the pair within the Channel Down. There are three separate levels of Resistance: the 1D MA50, the 1.19100 level (which is a Double Top = red arrows) and the 1D MA200. The previous rebound leg towards the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down marginally exceeded the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. If today is the bottom, the the 0.786 Fib is at 1.21182. Buying for the long-term and setting a 1.21000 target is a solid R/R trade. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- !! Donations via TradingView coins also help me a great deal at posting more free trading content and signals here !! 🎉 👍 Shout-out to TradingShot's 💰 top TradingView Coin donor 💰 this week ==> Vergnes --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
12