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Eurusdtechnicalanalysis

EURUSD: The ECB's policy decision is the highlight of today's ec The dollar rose slightly early in the day after being mixed in yesterday's trading. Rising Treasury yields of late have supported the greenback. US stocks also saw late declines, although technology stocks again outperformed as the Nasdaq index closed up 0.4%. The S&P 500 managed to rise 0.1% while the Dow closed down 0.3%. US futures are currently flat. In the bond market, the 10-year bond yield in the US decreased 2 basis points to 4.158%. ECB President Lagarde will continue to speak based on the data but traders will keep an eye out for any unexpected comments from her. The market prices the ECB's ability to cut interest rates in April at 72% and expects 127 basis points of interest rate cuts this year.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD: Euro outlook next weekNext week, the ECB's monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday, and important economic indicators from Germany will also be announced, so the euro may fluctuate significantly. This week, a number of central bank officials spoke out against overly optimistic markets about a rate cut in 2024. Next Thursday's ECB Governing Council meeting is likely to be too early for ECB President Christine Lagarde to start setting a concrete schedule for interest rates, and markets will wait until the next Governing Council meeting on May 7 for more information. would have to. Next week will see the release of the German and European PMI reports, the IFO annual report and the German Consumer Confidence Index. This data should be closely monitored as the German economy remains weak. EUR/USD broke out of a channel pattern on Tuesday and is currently trading below the 200-day SMA of 1.0850. The current support level for this pair is 1.0787, but resistance areas at 1.0950 and 1.1000 are also observed.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD Shorts from 1.09400 down towards 1.08000EU is currently exhibiting a similar pattern to other pairs, and my current stance for this currency pair is bearish. I'm patiently waiting for the 12hr supply zone to be mitigated, considering it as the nearest opportunity of interest for me. This aligns with the overall higher time frame trend, which is bearish. Upon the mitigation of this zone, my plan involves waiting for a Wyckoff distribution to unfold within the specified area. Ideally, I will be looking for the Asian high within the zone to be swept. Following this occurrence, I will then be looking for selling opportunities back down to address the imbalances left below. Confluences for EU sells are as follows: - 12hr Supply zone caused a BOS to the downside on the higher time frame - Imbalances and liquidity below that needs to get taken as well as a demand zone that needs mitigating. - Overall trend of the market is bearish on the higher time frame. - We are currently witnessing a pullback and I'm looking for my POI to continue this trend. P.S. While I maintain a bearish outlook, I acknowledge the presence of equal highs above my zone, which could potentially lead to a break beyond my supply. In such a scenario, I recognize that price might aim for higher levels to enter a more premium area. HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AHEAD!
Short
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD: EUR/USD broke through an important technical milestone iThe dollar remains generally in good shape. EUR/USD tested the 200-day moving average during yesterday's trading session before rising to the 1.0890 level. Looking at the short-term trend, sellers are in control with prices still not coming close to testing the 100 hour moving average at 1.0916. The downtrend will still be maintained for now. As rising Treasury yields help strengthen the dollar, the euro is also receiving support from the ECB's outlook review. Going into this year, traders were convinced of the first rate cut in April but that possibility is now being priced at approximately 90%. This comes after opposition from ECB policymakers. That means that while April is still on the table, it is likely that June or July would be a more reasonable option to satisfy the central bank's board of governors. Therefore, if traders lower their pricing on an interest rate cut in April, it will support the Euro at a balanced level. Currently, sellers are still willing to try to maintain the bearish trend.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
Retail Data Shaping EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: 1. US Retail Sales Increase: Recent data shows a 0.6% increase in retail sales in December, marking the strongest pace in three months. This indicates a solid holiday season and a resilient consumer attitude in the US, which could be a positive indicator for the US dollar (USD). 2. Consumer Resilience and Economic Outlook: Despite predictions of a recession, household spending has been surprisingly strong over the past year. However, this momentum is expected to slow down in 2024 due to persistent inflation, high borrowing costs, and diminishing savings. This could limit the strengthening of the USD. 3. Market Reaction: The immediate market response to the data was a drop in US Treasuries and stocks, suggesting a scaling back of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. This generally would favor the dollar. 4. State of the US Economy: Manufacturing output showed minimal growth, indicating weakness in that sector. Technical Analysis: 1. Monthly Time Frame: EUR/USD has rejected a key resistance, suggesting a possible bearish reversal. 2. Weekly Time Frame: The pair is in an upward trend and is at a significant support, which could indicate a bounce. 3. Daily Time Frame: There is an overextension of the price, suggesting a bearish correction towards 1.0800 4. 4-Hour Time Frame: A shift towards an upward trend is observed, confirming the possibility of a correction. Conclusion and Strategy: - Short-Term Outlook: The current strength of the dollar, supported by solid retail sales, could keep EUR/USD under pressure. However, the overextension and upward trend in shorter time frames suggest an imminent correction. - Medium-Term Outlook: The expectation of an economic slowdown in the US in 2024 and potential weakness in the manufacturing sector could limit the long-term strengthening of the dollar.
Long
by Wiiso
1
Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches Outlook for EUR/USD: Davos Insights and Fed Speeches Several ECB officials are expressing opposition to rate cuts, potentially helping to curb losses in the EUR/USD, which is currently testing the 61.8% Fibonacci level after a more than 0.7% drop. Davos has prompted ECB officials to share their views on the Euro Area's prospects and their positions on the likelihood of interest rate cuts in 2024. ECB Board Member Gediminas Šimkus, also Chairman of the Lithuanian Central Bank, suggests holding off on a central bank move, but sees the possibility of a cut in the summer. Similarly, ECB Board Member Madis Müller, the Governor of the Central Bank of Estonia, believes expectations for a rate cut are ahead of the current data reality. However, the future direction of EUR/USD remains uncertain, as Fed officials are pushing back against interest rate hikes too, and their influence in the markets may be more significant. Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, whose November comments raised expectations of Fed rate cuts, today (not at Davos) expressed a more cautious outlook on the pace of rate cuts ("I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past"). Monitoring other Fed members' addresses this week will be crucial: Wednesday, Jan 17 09:00: Fed's Bowman Speech 09:00: Fed's Barr Speech 15:00: Fed's Williams Speech Thursday, Jan 18 07:30: Fed's Bostic Speech Friday, Jan 19 16:15: Fed's Daly Speech
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD: The USD is quiet with low trading volumeThe dollar was weak in early European trading on Monday as traders weighed the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a U.S. holiday slowed trading volume. At 4:35 p.m. ET (9:35 p.m. Japan time), the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.1% higher at 102.242 as the holiday began. Martin Luther King Jr. Data released on Friday showed the U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell in December, increasing traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now has a 78% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in March, compared to a 68% chance a week ago. This week's US statistical calendar is quiet, with the focus on retail sales figures scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Investors will be closely watched for signs that consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth, remains resilient despite rising interest rates. Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.4% in December, following a 0.3% increase in November. Investors will also have the opportunity to hear from several Fed officials, including Fed President Christoper Waller, Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley. The value of the euro rose even though Germany's GDP fell In Europe, the euro/USD pair edged up to 1.0953, even as data showed the eurozone's largest German economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of the year. Last year and he will decrease by the same amount throughout 2023. But despite this weakness, recent inflation data largely confirms the European Central Bank's current thinking, meaning rate cuts are not on the table in the short term, said ECB chief economist Philippe. Lane said Friday. Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in December from 2.4% in November.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside? EUR/USD Analysis: Targeting a breakout to the downside? The EUR/USD currency pair seems poised for a technical breakout. Analysing the 8-hour chart reveals a consolidation phase since the start of the year, following a decline below 1.1000, with this mark acting as a resistance level on two occasions since then. Currently, EUR/USD is resembling a triangle/flag pattern, suggesting a potential technical breakout. The looming question is: Which direction will the pair break out? There are arguments to be made for both sides of the equation, but perhaps the case for a break to the downside is more convincing? Traders are pricing in an ~80% probability of a Fed rate cut in March. Simultaneously, an European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut for April is also on the horizon. While both central banks might fail to meet these expectations, the likelihood that the Fed pushes back might be lower than that of the ECB. According to Governing Council member Robert Holzmann, speaking at the World Economic in Davos, the prospect of ECB rate cuts in 2024 appears highly unlikely. At the same time, he emphasized the persistent threat of geopolitical conflicts, such as those in the Middle East, which pose a risk to Euro supply chains and energy markets. This ongoing uncertainty could exert pressure on consumer prices, creating a challenging environment that might interfere with any potential rate cuts from the ECB.
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD Longs from 1.08000 back upCurrently, EURUSD has been in a prolonged range, gathering significant liquidity. Given the current state of equilibrium, I am not actively seeking trades at this moment. However, I anticipate a potential move to unfold, continuing the bullish trend. For now, I will be patiently waiting for a breakout before considering any trading opportunities. There is another plausible scenario where price breaks above to mitigate the 10-hour supply zone, leading to a bearish reaction. This possibility is valid, considering the imbalances just below that need filling and liquidity that requires sweeping. My confluences for EURUSD buys are as follows: - A 10-hour demand zone below triggered a new CHOCH to the upside. - The overall short-term trend is bullish, aligning with this idea. - Imbalance above the demand signals a favourable reaction at my POI. - Abundant liquidity above, including trend lines and untouched Asian highs. - Price needs to dip to a significant demand level for an upward rally to persist. - I also expect the dollar to keep dropping indicating that EU will keep going up. P.S. As price is still considerably distant from any nearby Points of Interest (POI), I am content to wait patiently and refrain from taking any immediate action until price triggers one of the levels I am monitoring. Have a great trading week ahead!
Long
by Hassan_fx
6
EURUSD: Swing Sell Coming in| have a patience for it to happen|FX:EURUSD overall EU remain bearish after it rejected at previous high, EURO failed to gain control even after DXY plummeted, looking at the chart in 2 hour time frame, we expected price to rise up to fill the liquidity void and in that area we think there is huge amount of interest from sellers side. what do you think of EURUSD do you think it will drop? Please like and comment your views let's discuss different bias.
Short
by Setupsfx_
EURUSD END-WEEK ANALYSIS 2 UPDATE 08/10/2023 Market Update: A Shift in EUR/USD Sentiment As anticipated, we witnessed a small pullback in EUR/USD, hinting at a bearish trend resumption. However, the market structure has taken an unexpected turn. Heading into next week, I'll be shifting my focus towards long positions. Stay flexible, adapt to changing conditions, and, as always, manage risk diligently. 🚀💹 #EURUSD #Forex #TradingView #TradingStrategy THIS IS THE SAME FOR ALL THE OTHER MAJOR PAIRS
Long
by Dion-FX
EURUSD: The ECB's Villeroy said the rate cuts hinged on stable 2European Central Bank (ECB) board member François Villeroy de Galhaud has made it clear that the possibility of a rate cut by the ECB depends on whether inflation expectations are firmly anchored at target levels. Use the bank's 2%. In his recent statement, Villeroy emphasized the importance of a data-driven approach to policy-making and signaled a move away from predetermined data-based policies. Villeroy's comments came at a time when some investors were expecting a rate cut as early as March or April. However, the central bank took a more cautious stance, saying it should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. This cautious stance is in line with the ECB's broader strategy to contain inflation without hurting economic growth. The recent rise in inflation to 2.9% in December was due to technical factors such as the base effect from previous energy prices, which had a large impact on inflation. General distribution. It is important to note that the ECB's current deposit rate is 4%, and this level is already part of the ECB's toolkit for dealing with inflationary pressures. Villeroy's emphasis on stable inflation expectations is an important indicator of the ECB's commitment to its price stability mandate. Given the latest inflation data, the ECB appears to be maintaining a cautious and reactive approach to monetary policy in the face of economic uncertainty.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD BUY NOW The daily chart for the EUR/USD pair shows it remains pretty much neutral for a fourth consecutive day. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its bullish slope but acts as dynamic resistance around 1.0970. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, remain directionless, far below the current level, while technical indicators head nowhere around their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional interest. EURUSD BUY NOW. 1.09446 CONFIRM TARGET. 1.1008
Short
by FxJoseph_7
EURUSD Longs from 1.09200 or @1.08000 Back upEURUSD shares a similar bias with GU, but the price exhibits more imbalances and liquidity at greater distances. While there is a 50-minute demand zone near the current price, I anticipate only a minor reaction from it. My primary buying opportunities are within the 10-hour demand zone, which offers a more discounted price. Alternatively, there's a possibility that price continues its upward movement, reaching the 10-hour supply zone above. This represents a promising Point of Interest (POI) for me, where I expect price to undergo distribution before a potential sell-off. However, at the moment, I'm patiently waiting for price to accumulate within either of my demand zones to capture buying opportunities along this temporary bullish trajectory. Confluences for EURUSD buys are as follows: - Bullish pressure weakens, evident in a CHOCH and confirmed by a BOS - A 11hr demand zone below triggered a break of structure to the upside. - The market trend is bullish, aligning with this idea. - Imbalance above the demand signals favourable reaction at my POI. - Abundant liquidity above, including trend lines and untouched Asian highs. - Price needs to dip to a significant demand level for an upward rally to persist. - Lots of imbalances lying below that need filling before price continues to ascend. P.S. Although my long-term outlook for this market remains bearish, I will be actively seeking buying opportunities for EURUSD as the dollar continues to exhibit a bearish trend.
Long
by Hassan_fx