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Anticipating a Slightly Bearish Bias on EURUSD for 02/10/2024.EURUSD Analysis for October 2, 2024: Anticipating a Slightly Bearish Bias As we head into October 2, 2024, the EURUSD currency pair is showing potential for a slightly bearish bias based on the latest fundamental factors and current market conditions. Traders and investors are keeping a close eye on several key drivers that could influence the pair today. In this article, we'll delve into the core reasons for this bearish outlook and highlight the critical elements that may impact the EURUSD price movement. 1. Diverging Economic Data Between the Eurozone and the U.S. One of the primary factors contributing to the slightly bearish sentiment for EURUSD today is the divergence in economic performance between the Eurozone and the U.S. economy. Recent data from the Eurozone, particularly weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures and concerns about stagnation in key economies like Germany, have cast doubt on the region’s growth prospects. This has added pressure on the Euro, potentially pushing it lower against the U.S. Dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth and robust labor market performance. This economic divergence favors the U.S. Dollar, strengthening it against the Euro. 2. Monetary Policy Divergence: ECB vs. Federal Reserve The monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the Federal Reserve is another important factor driving the bearish outlook for EURUSD. The ECB has recently adopted a more cautious stance, signaling that further rate hikes may be limited due to concerns over economic growth. This dovish tone is weighing on the Euro as market participants anticipate a slower pace of tightening. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has maintained a more hawkish approach, with hints of further rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist. This divergence in policy direction increases the appeal of the U.S. Dollar, adding to the downward pressure on EURUSD. 3. Geopolitical Risks in Europe Geopolitical tensions in Europe, including ongoing uncertainty surrounding energy security and the war in Ukraine, continue to weigh on investor sentiment. These factors are likely to keep the Euro under pressure, as risk-averse investors may flock to safe-haven assets like the U.S. Dollar. Any escalation in these tensions could exacerbate the bearish trend for EURUSD. 4. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, EURUSD appears to be trading below key resistance levels, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The pair has struggled to break above the 1.0600 level, and the downward trendline remains intact. Short-term momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest bearish momentum is building, supporting a case for a further decline. Additionally, with risk sentiment favoring the U.S. Dollar amid global uncertainty, the Euro may struggle to find strong support unless positive economic data or ECB intervention changes the narrative. Conclusion: EURUSD to Maintain a Slightly Bearish Bias Today Given the combination of weaker Eurozone economic data, diverging monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and bearish technical indicators, EURUSD is likely to face a slightly bearish bias on October 2, 2024. Traders should closely monitor developments in Eurozone economic reports and any potential statements from ECB officials for further clues on the pair’s direction. Keywords for SEO: EURUSD analysis, EURUSD forecast, EURUSD today, EURUSD October 2 2024, EURUSD bearish bias, Euro to USD forecast, Forex trading EURUSD, Eurozone economic data, ECB monetary policy, EURUSD technical analysis, EURUSD price action, EURUSD market sentiment, Forex strategy EURUSD, TradingView EURUSD article. By staying informed of these key drivers, traders can better position themselves in the market and make informed decisions regarding the EURUSD pair today.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
EURUSD Analysis: Slight Bearish Bias Expected (25/09/2024)The EURUSD pair continues to show signs of a slight bearish bias this week, in line with market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we will break down the key drivers influencing EURUSD as of 25/09/2024, along with a technical outlook. This analysis provides insights for traders and investors aiming to position themselves for potential downside movement in the EURUSD market. Fundamental Analysis: Factors Pressuring EURUSD 1. U.S. Dollar Strength The U.S. dollar has maintained its strength due to a series of factors, including recent hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve. Fed officials have continued to emphasize the possibility of keeping interest rates higher for longer to combat inflation. This has provided significant support for the dollar, making it an attractive safe-haven asset, while simultaneously putting pressure on the euro. 2. Diverging Central Bank Policies The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently adopted a more cautious tone regarding future rate hikes. With inflation in the eurozone stabilizing, the ECB may opt for a wait-and-see approach, potentially slowing the pace of tightening or halting rate hikes altogether. This divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is expected to contribute to further downside pressure on the EURUSD. 3. Weak Eurozone Economic Data Economic data from the eurozone remains relatively soft. The latest PMI data showed a contraction in the manufacturing and services sectors, further weakening the euro. Lower-than-expected growth forecasts and potential deflationary pressures also undermine the euro's strength. 4. Geopolitical Uncertainty Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions in Eastern Europe and concerns over energy security, continue to cloud the eurozone’s economic outlook. These factors have led to capital outflows from Europe, with investors seeking the safety of the U.S. dollar. Technical Analysis: EURUSD Price Action On the technical front, EURUSD has struggled to break above key resistance levels near 1.10700, confirming the bearish sentiment. The pair has been trading in a downward channel since mid-September, and with recent price action rejecting the 50-day moving average, momentum indicators signal further downside potential. - Support Level: 1.09000 is a crucial support level to watch for EURUSD this week. A break below this could accelerate the bearish move, potentially targeting the 1.08500 level. - Resistance Level: The 1.10700 level remains a key resistance, and a move above this could invalidate the bearish outlook, though this seems unlikely given the fundamental backdrop. Outlook for the Week: Slight Bearish Bias for EURUSD Given the combination of strong U.S. dollar fundamentals, the divergence in central bank policies, weak eurozone economic data, and technical resistance, the EURUSD is likely to maintain a slightly bearish bias through the remainder of this week. Keywords for SEO: EURUSD analysis, EURUSD today, EURUSD forecast, EURUSD bearish, euro dollar, forex trading, U.S. dollar strength, ECB monetary policy, Fed rate hikes, forex market analysis, EURUSD price action, technical analysis EURUSD, eurozone economy. Conclusion EURUSD is likely to continue on its bearish trajectory, with potential downside towards key support levels this week. Traders should closely monitor U.S. dollar fundamentals, especially any new developments from the Federal Reserve, as these will play a crucial role in shaping EURUSD’s movement. Keep an eye on eurozone data releases and geopolitical headlines for any shifts in market sentiment that could impact this currency pair.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
EURUSD today!The future securities contract for the US stock market is trading mostly flat on Wednesday, ahead of the latest testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress, and investors are looking for clues about future monetary policy. By 06:45 ET (10:45 GMT), the Dow Jones contract had increased by 15 points, or 0.1%, the S&P 500 contract had risen by 2 points, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 contract had declined by 10 points, or 0.1%. Wall Street's main indices closed lower on Tuesday, erasing some of the strong gains from the previous week after the Fed paused its year-long interest rate hiking cycle. The S&P 500 reached its highest level since April 2022 last week, and recorded its fifth consecutive positive week. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell began a two-day testimony before Congress on Wednesday, speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, just one week after the US central bank paused its year-long interest rate hiking cycle following 10 consecutive rate hikes. Economic data was mostly light on Wednesday, but US housing starts unexpectedly rose by 21.7% in May, the highest level since 2016, indicating that the housing sector is heading in the right direction to help boost economic
Short
by Sphyn-Trader
7
EURUSD supported by ECB chief economist Peter PraetEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1735 Day Trading Range: 1.1735 - 1.1860 Key Support: 1.1768 - 1.1738 - 1.1718 - 1.1694 Key Resistance: 1.1815 - 1.1834 - 1.1858 - 1.1888 Technical Indicators: RSI The RSI moving 70 level & its having more space for overbought condition. MACD: MacD having Bullish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 20 (1.1709) & SMA 55 (1.1661) are strong support for EURUSD. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1735 with targets at 1.1810 & 1.1835 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1735 look for further downside with 1.1718 & 1.1688 as targets. Fundamental: The easing trade tensions and the resulting broad based sell-off in the USD pushed the EUR/USD pair to a 2.5-month high of 1.1785 yesterday. The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the mentioned high during NA market hours yesterday but has regained ground now after the retracement held above the former resistance in the 1.1730 region, where the pair stalled its advance several times these last days, and where it set its high in August. The options market data indicate the investors are expecting the common currency to extend gains further and hence are likely unwinding bearish bets which support the pair’s bullish momentum and also indicate consolidation above 1.17 handle. Although the weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing data from the U.S. came in better than analysts’ estimates, the index failed to make a meaningful recovery. EURO bulls were further supported by comments from ECB chief economist Peter Praet in New York where he said that the euro area economy was expanding at a rate above its potential and added that he was confident about the inflation rate converging with the bank’s target. Looking ahead, the EUR could raise above 1.18 if the preliminary Eurozone PMI numbers, scheduled for release today, beat estimates and the risk assets remain well bid. When looking from technical perspective, the EUR/USD could revisit former resistance-turned-support level of 1.1750 before building on a bullish close above 1.17, as the hourly chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength index. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD in Confusing stage & waiting for US Strong Data TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1730 - 1.1610 Pivot: 1.1690 (CMP 1.1684) Key Resistance: 1.1690 - 1.1718 - 1.1735 - 1.1760 Key Support: 1.1668 - 1.1645 - 1.1620 - 1.1600 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator lacks downward momentum, moving around 50-55 level. MACD: MacD having Bullish trend line. Moving Average: SMA 100 (1.1674) & SMA 55 (1.1681) are strong support for the pair today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1690 with targets at 1.1668 & 1.1645 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1690 look for further upside with 1.1718 & 1.1732 as targets. Fundamental: A combination of increased risk appetite and a pullback in the treasury yields could yield much-needed break above 1.17. The price action in early Asian market hours indicates neutral bias as both sides of pair struggle to gain upper hand. The failure to scale the psychological level of 1.17 in a convincing manner is likely associated with the rising Treasury yields and the widening US-DE (German) two-year yield spread. Traders also noted that U.S. macro economic data has remained very strong so far despite trade disputes since early this year. Europe >> The ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech at an event entitled "Making Europe's Economic Union work" organized by Jacques Delors Institute, Hertie School of Governance, Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin at 13:30 GMT. >> The Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to fall to -2.0 in September. >> German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is scheduled to deliver a speech titled "Perspectives for Europe and the euro area" at the Center for European Politics, in Freiburg at 15:15 GMT. US >> The US housing starts rose strong 9.2% m/m in August while building permits decreased -5.7% m/m in the same month. >> The US initial jobless claims are expected to increase to 210K in the week ending September 14. >> Philadelphia Fed index is expected to increase to 17.0 in September from 11.9 in August. A break under 1.1650 could change the short-term bias to the downside, exposing the pair to support levels at 1.1625-1.1600 handles. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1650, another test of 1.1720 could take place. Above the next strong barrier is seen at 1.1745/50, a medium-term resistance that if broken would clear the way to more gains. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
2
European Session EURUSD Focus on Draghi Speech & Trade WarEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1665 - 1.1790 Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1745 - 1.1768 - 1.1788 Key Support: 1.1688 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1612 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicators shows upside bias in a day. MACD: MacD having bullish trend. Moving Avg: SMA55 (1.1626) & SMA200 (1.1568) are strong support for EURUSD. Technical Idea: Pivot: 1.1665 Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1728 & 1.1755 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1614 as targets. Fundamental: A bigger rally above 1.17 could be on the cards if ECB's Draghi plays down risks arising out of trade wars and the stock markets pick up a strong bid. On the economic data front, the final Euro-zone CPI confirmed the flash readout of 2.0% y/y in August and remained supportive of the positive tone surrounding the shared currency. The US President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports and warned to pursue tariffs on $267 billion of additional imports if China takes retaliatory action. As of writing this article, the pair is trading at 1.1688 up 0.04% on the day. Today’s key focus would be on the ECB President Mario Draghi’s scheduled speech, where any relevant comments related to monetary policy should influence the common currency and provide some meaningful trading opportunities. Apart from this, the economic docket lacks any major market moving releases and hence, the USD price dynamics might continue to act as a key driver of the pair’s momentum through Tuesday’s trading session. Although odds of a big risk-on move are quite low, as the prospects of a breakthrough deal between the US and China are quite low. The recovery is likely associated with conciliatory comments from China's commerce minister. More importantly, the risk assets seem to have taken heart from the fact that the Trump administration imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports worth $200 billion as opposed to expectations of 25 percent levy. This is evident from the recovery in the JPY crosses. For instance, the EUR/JPY pair witnessed a 70 pip recovery from session lows in Asia and could extend gains further if the global stock markets pick up a strong bid, although odds of a big risk-on move are quite low, as the prospects of a breakthrough deal between the US and China are quite low. The EUR/USD may also find acceptance above 1.17 if the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi downplays the trade tensions and reiterates that the QE program will likely end in December. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
2
European Session EURUSD Boost From ECB UpdateEURUSD Technical Analysis Day Trading Range: 1.1635 - 1.1755 Pivot: 1.1665 Key Support: 1.1690 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1600 Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1735 - 1.1752 - 1.1775 Technical Indicators: MACD: MacD is having Strong Bullish volume. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1624) & SMA200 (1.1570) Strong Support for EURUSD. Technical Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1718 & 1.1735 in extension. Technical Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1605 as targets. Fundamental: The EUR/USD has found acceptance above the 100-day moving average for the first time since April 25. The common currency picked up a strong bid yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) sounded optimistic about prospects for inflation, bolstering the already bullish technical setup. Today’s data is US meets expectation the possibility for USD to gain upper hand against EURO before market closes on Friday is very low as it will scale down investors’ expectations for faster Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, an above-forecast reading would reinforce expectations that domestic demand would cushion the US economy from external shocks and could put a bid under the USD. Risk sentiment in market has died down a bit as President Trump tweeted that he felt no pressure to do a trade deal with China, causing some unwind of the positive risk sentiment despite his government reaching out to China for trade related talks. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
6
European Session EURUSD Playing Game with TradersEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1575 Day Trading Range: 1.1530 - 1.1630 Key Support: 1.1575 - 1.1545 - 1.1530 Key Resistance: 1.1600 - 1.1620 - 1.1635 Technical Indicators: Moving Avg: SMA100(1.1571) strong support & SMA200 (1.1611) strong resistance for the day. MACD: MacD still having buying volume & looking toward selling pressure. Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1575 with targets at 1.1605 & 1.1620 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1575 look for further downside with 1.1555 & 1.1525 as targets. Fundamental: The Euro is trading slightly higher at mid-week, recovering from two-weeks of selling pressure. Traders are paying attention to Brexit negotiations, global trade issues and rising U.S. Treasury yields. Early Wednesday the Euro is holding steady ahead of reports on Italian Industrial Production, Euro Zone Industrial Production, and the Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate. The big event is in the U.S. with the release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI) at 1230 GMT. The PPI is expected to rise 0.2%, up from the previously reported flat performance in July. Core PPI is also expected up inch higher to 0.2%, up from the previously reported 0.1% gain. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Looking US NFP Data TodayTechnical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1580 - 1.1710 Pivot: 1.1635 (EURUSD CMP 1.1642) Key Resistance: 1.1662 - 1.1688 - 1.1710 Key Support: 1.1630 - 1.1610 - 1.1580 Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1634 with targets at 1.1608 & 1.1578 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1634 look for further upside with 1.1664 & 1.1688 as targets. Technical Indicators: MACD: The MacD lacks upward momentum. Moving Avg: SMA200 (1.1580) & SMA100 (1.1577) strong support for the day. Price is above SMA, Short term bullish scenario. Fundamentals: Sino-U.S. Trade War Updates Remain Main Focus of Investors However, a break above the previous day’s high of 1.1659 may remain elusive, courtesy of escalating US-China trade tensions. Moreover, China is likely to retaliate in kind if the US goes ahead with the fresh round of tariffs. That said, a big rally towards 1.1733 (recent high) could be in the offing if the US average weekly earnings and non-farm payrolls figure for August, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT, misses estimates by a wide margin, adding credence to the argument put forward by the likes of Fed’s Bullard that the central bank should stop raising rates now. On the other hand, a big beat on the wage growth figure would reinforce hawkish Fed expectations, driving the US dollar higher across the board. While the Eurozone second-quarter GDP, due for release at 09:00 GMT could move the EUR pairs. Moving forward, a close above 1.1704 opens the door for a test of the 1.1840-52 area. Alternatively, a push back below support in the 1.1530-54 zone paves the way for a decline back to Augusts swing bottom and unless either of these price levels are breached the pair is expected move in range bound pattern trapped inside mentioned price levels. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic