Get started

Eurusdtrade

Factors Contributing to the EUR's Decline Against the USDDear Esteemed TradingView Members, Environment In recent months, the Euro (EUR) has experienced a notable depreciation against the US Dollar (USD), reaching parity for the first time in two decades. This decline can be attributed to a confluence of factors, including: Economic Disparities: The ongoing economic challenges in Europe, particularly the energy crisis and the escalating war in Ukraine, have dampened investor confidence in the region's economic outlook. This has led to increased demand for the USD as a safe haven asset. Monetary Policy Divergence: The European Central Bank (ECB) has been cautious in raising interest rates to combat inflation, in contrast to the US Federal Reserve's more aggressive tightening cycle. This divergence in monetary policies has made the USD more attractive to yield-seeking investors. Technical Breakdown : The EURUSD pair has broken through significant technical support levels, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. This technical breakdown has accelerated the EUR's downward trajectory. Political Uncertainties: Ongoing political uncertainties in Europe, such as the upcoming Italian elections and the potential for renewed tensions between Russia and the West, have further weighed on the EUR. These factors have collectively contributed to the EUR's recent decline against the USD. While the EUR's depreciation may pose challenges for European exporters, it could also benefit European tourism and make European goods more competitive in international markets. The future direction of the EURUSD pair will depend on the evolving economic landscape and monetary policy decisions in both the eurozone and the United States. Technicals The bottom chart shows strong bullish candle on DXY today. Furthermore, the EUR price was overbought compared to EMAs see the top chart, where price has been highly above all the visible EMAs, and the RSI printed a bearish cross on the middle pane. EUR could fall to at least an EMA20 retest, which is around the upper blue line. Persisting bearishness could find the next support at the bottom blue line. These blue lines are historic supports, which could stop or reverse bearish progress. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Conduct your own research. This publication explains only one aspect of my approach, not my comprehensive strategy. The idea focuses on observations around the price action; reading the indicator descriptions is recommended for understanding of the calculations. Kind regards, Ely
Short
by Elysian_Mind
2
EURUSD possible buy zone!Recently, there was an anticipation of a pullback or correction in the EURUSD currency pair. This correction was expected if the current peak reached the level of 1.10000. However, the US dollar strengthened without a deceptive upward movement, compelling its major rivals to retreat. Despite this, an overshoot is anticipated, likely leading to the subsequent (deeper) downward correction. Towards the end of this week, on Friday, significant economic data is set to be published. Special focus is on data from the United States, and, of course, the attention-grabbing speech by the head of the Federal Reserve.
Long
by ForexWizard01
1
EURUSD: Fed official: Interest rates will stay limited for a Interest rates are "estimated to be at their lowest level in 25 years," Williams told the New York Fed's Bretton Woods Committee meeting. "I think it is appropriate to maintain a hawkish stance for some time to fully restore balance and return inflation sustainably to our long-term target of 2%," he said. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting, giving it time to assess the economy after raising rates sharply from near zero in March 2022 to over 5% in July. . At the same time, expectations are rising in the bond market that the Fed's tightening cycle will come to an abrupt end with its first rate cut in May. "There's not a lot of sleep deprivation" given market expectations, Williams said, adding that any rate cuts would depend on inflation and how the economy progresses. He expects inflation to continue falling toward the 2% goal, and expects the Fed's price index to fall more than 2% next year and reach the target by 2025. Government figures on Thursday showed the PCE index fell to 3% in October. "We have taken a limited stance and things are moving in the right direction. We can now assess whether we need to do anything more." Still, the New York Fed president said if price pressures persist longer than expected, "additional policy tightening may be necessary," and Williams, like his colleagues, believes the current political path is not sufficiently restrictive. He emphasized the need to continue monitoring the data to assess whether this is the case. . So far, fourth quarter data shows signs of a significant decline in economic activity. Data released Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending fell in October compared to the previous month as inflation continued to slow. Inflation-adjusted personal spending rose 0.2% last month and 0.3% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The report also noted that the core PCE price index increased by 0.2%. The index rose 3.5%, its lowest level since 2021. Although he expects economic growth to remain below trend next year, he is "quite positive." Economists generally expect growth to be around 2%.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
The Dollar & EURUSD Are Pulling Back |Will It Last? Hi friends, the dollar index (DXY) and EURUSD are pulling back and into areas where we want to look for more trading opportunities. Since tomorrow is Friday, tomorrow's candlestick closure could be very telling about the price direction. This video shares my thoughts on the price movement on the indicie and currency pair. If you found this helpful please like and share this video. Disclaimer: This analysis is based on my eyes. Please stick to your own analysis.
TVC:DXY
by ShaquanLopez
Sniper Trading System12 AM indicated the Bullish set up. We know the market resets at 12 am. 1am the BUY engaged. The DXY is heavy Bearish. I heard the DXY will be falling for the next two years. When the DXY falls US Base pairs typically go up. We anticipate EURUSD to buy to the 1st and 2nd Standard Deviation before the drop. Heavy news today in New York session so we want to catch our pips in the London session before the sharks start swimming. Never over leverage. Trust your trade set up. Have a great trading day!
Long
by Master-Jedi-Trader
1
EUR/USD is trending downEUR/USD extended its advance on Tuesday, clearing Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960 and rising to its best mark in more than three months. If the pair holds onto recent gains and establishes a support base near 1.0960, there's a possibility of an upward push towards 1.1080 following a period of consolidation. Should bullish momentum persist, attention could turn to the 2023 highs near 1.1275. In case of a downward shift from current levels, it is imperative to closely monitor price action around 1.0960, bearing in mind that a breach of this technical zone could send the exchange rate towards 1.0840. On further weakness, we could witness a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average, located slightly above confluence support near 1.0760.
Short
by TinaTradingGold
Morgan Stanley and BofA’s 2024 EUR/USD Predictions Morgan Stanely has released what they call their top trade for 2024, and it is the exact opposite of Bank of America’s call. Analysts at Morgan Stanley think selling EUR/USD around the current level of 1.10 is the trade to make next year, with a target for the pair reaching parity by the end of the first quarter of 2024. This outlook relies on sustained economic performance of the US. They also believe that technical recessions in the eurozone, Sweden, and the UK are expected to lead their respective central banks to initiate rate cuts in the second quarter of 2024. Selling Swedish krone (which has become a top ten traded currency recently) and the British pound might also be options for 2024 too, but this was not explicitly stated by the bank. On the other hand, Bank of America has suggested that shorting the USD is the trade to make, particularly against the Euro and South African Rand. BofA sees the potential falling interest rate in the eurozone increasing the attractiveness of euro-based stocks and other investments.
by BlackBull_Markets
💡 EURUSD: Will it maintain its position?➡️ Currency traders observed the Euro maintaining its bullish position against the US Dollar today, persistently aiming for the 1.1000 mark and finding support at 1.0900. However, the Euro faced a decline against the British Pound, reaching a two-week low. ➡️ Changes in investor sentiment can be attributed to evolving expectations regarding the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The anticipated ECB rate cut, initially projected for April, has been pushed back to June, with the expected cut now scaled down to 83 basis points. While the forex markets showed relative stability last week, upcoming inflation data from both the Eurozone and the United States in the following week is anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the trajectory of currency movements. Traders are advised to closely track these reports for insights into potential future central bank actions and their likely impact on currency valuations.
Long
by Stone_Haven
4
EURUSD: Low valuations of euro zone bank stocks could hamper creThe European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday expressed concern about the low valuations of euro zone bank stocks, suggesting it could have a negative impact on future credit growth. Hybrid by imposing strict conditions on the borrower. Bank profits have increased significantly this year, thanks in part to higher net interest income due to higher ECB rates, but stock market valuations have not kept pace. Many banks appear to be trading at a discount to fundamentals. The ECB has pointed out that this could lead to financial system instability in the long run. Banks that are undervalued by investors may struggle to raise new capital when they need it, the ECB said in its financial stability review report. The central bank continued to insist that weak valuations directly lead to tighter financing conditions for the real economy. We find that banks' increased exposure to corporate credit risk and the perception of bank stocks as value stocks are major contributors to valuation stagnation. However, the ECB also noted that these fundamentals do not fully explain current valuations. Increased uncertainty regarding future payments to shareholders may also be a factor. Meanwhile, some euro zone governments have introduced banking taxes and the ECB is considering raising interest-free reserve requirements, which could lead to lower revenues. The ECB argues that the tax risk on dividend income sources impacts valuations more than on growth stocks, whose cash flows are expected to be reinvested internally and returned to investors in the future. Far away.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD is trending downThe dollar index DXY, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it's the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high," he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall. Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision. After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source.
Short
by TinaTradingGold