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''EUR/USD 4H | Elliott Wave Playbook" The pair appears to be carving out a textbook 5-wave Elliott structure. Here’s the breakdown: - **Wave 1, 2, and 3** are in the books, and Wave 4 is now developing, testing the **38.2%-50% retracement zone** (highlighted in orange). - **Wave 5 Target**: Eyeing **1.0100-1.0090** as the likely destination for the final push lower. **Trade Plan:** - Monitoring the sell zone at **1.0373-1.0466**, which aligns with the Wave 4 retracement. - Any rejection here provides a short setup, with stops above **1.0466** and targets down to **1.0100**. - R:R is solid, making this a high-probability play for the disciplined trader. **Market Context:** - Structural resistance and Fibonacci confluence strengthen the case for shorts. - Patience is key—waiting for confirmation of Wave 4 completion before entry is paramount. **Reminder:** This is an analytical outlook, not financial advice. Manage risk diligently. --- Would this work for your audience, or shall I refine it further?
by Greenfireforex
EUR/USD Trading Outlook: Mixed Signals Amid Inflation, Jobs DataFrom a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair shows mixed signals across different timeframes, creating an interesting setup for traders. On the 4-hour chart, the broader trend remains bearish, with clear break-of-structure (BOS) events marking lower lows, reinforcing downside momentum. However, the 15-minute chart shows a sign of recovery as the price forms higher lows, though it's still confined within a range. Indicators reflect this indecision. MACD is flat across all timeframes, suggesting a lack of momentum, while ADX values between 17 and 22 confirm weak trend strength with no clear directional bias. ATR remains low, signalling reduced volatility. Volume analysis shows spikes at key support and resistance levels, but tapering volume during consolidations hints at market hesitation. From a macro perspective, while sentiment may be moderately volatile outside of Trump's tariff talks, the Eurozone continues to experience sticky inflation figures, as seen in Monday's CPI print. The JOLTS and ADP reports would likely be distorted against the current backdrop of uncertainty that would develop from tariffs the U.S. imposes on others. Trade Idea. Bull Case (scalping) Entry Trigger: 1.0340 breakout above weak high Stop Loss: 1.0330 Target: 1.0355 (which is the scalping resistance) Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2 Bull Case (Swing) Entry Trigger: Enter long near 1.0300 Stop Loss: 1.0280 Target: 1.0370 (4H High) Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 Bearish Case (scalping) Entry Trigger: 1.0335 (Enter short) Stop Loss: 1.0355 Target: 1.0310 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:2 Bearish Case (Swing) Entry Trigger: 1.0300 Stop Loss: 1.0315 Target: 1.0260 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:3 In conclusion, the Eurozone's CPI print will be a key factor driving short-term momentum. A higher CPI print would significantly impact the market. Alternatively, weaker job figures could continue the EUR's short-term momentum. Conversely, stronger JOLTS and ADP figures keep the Fed on the current rate trajectory, spurring a price reversal in the EUR's momentum. Due to the volatility, scalping might not pose the most favourable strategy this week.
Short
by Shiven_80eight
EURUSD - gap is filled, what’s next? Buys? Sells?Here is our in-depth view and update on EURUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels . Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at EURUSD from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . Now the main focus everyone has is the “ GAP ”. Yes the gap has been filled but sellers who tried to take advantage of it, have experienced drawdown today. EURUSD still has a chance to dig deeper into that gap potentially giving us better entries OR breaking to the upside. So here are the possible scenarios on EURUSD we have pre-planned for the following days . Scenario 1: BUYS at the break of 1.04334 - We broke above 1.04334. With the break of this level we can expect a possible move towards the upside. Even though we are extremely bearish on EURUSD for quite some time, short-term TVC:DXY weakness can cause the pair to see possible higher levels. Scenario 2: SELLS - We dug deeper into the “gap price” or we stayed below roughly 1.03462. With sells we have several possible entries. We can expect a deeper dig to the upside potentially giving us better entries. On the other hand, if we don’t experience that, and stay below 1.03462 we can expect more sells to come. KEY NOTES - EURUSD is overall still bearish. - DXY (USD) experiencing short-term bears. - Breaking above 1.04334 would result in more upside. - Staying below the gap fill, would result in sells. - Possible deeper digs to the upside before the sell off. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
1
Mastering EUR/USD TradingMastering EUR/USD Trading EUR/USD is the most traded forex pair, offering unparalleled liquidity and potential opportunities for traders of all levels. The exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar reflects the economic relationship between the two global powerhouses. In this article, we’ll explore what makes the EUR/USD pair so popular, the factors influencing its price, and how to approach the pair. What Is the EUR/USD Forex Pair? Although you definitely know what the EUR/USD pair is, we can’t start this article without a short overview. The EUR/USD pair represents the exchange rate between the euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD), showing how many US dollars are needed to buy one euro. It's the most traded currency pair in the world, thanks to its significant role in the global economy. For traders, this often means tight spreads, high trading volumes, and potential opportunities in various market conditions. Introduced in 1999 with the euro's creation, the EUR/USD pair reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone—comprising 20 European countries—and the United States. It’s more than just a number on a chart; it’s a barometer for the performance of two of the largest economic regions. Movements in this pair are influenced by factors like interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), economic indicators such as GDP growth, and geopolitical events impacting either region. One standout feature of EUR/USD is its responsiveness to economic news. For example, a strong US jobs report might drive demand for the dollar, causing the pair to fall. Similarly, announcements from the ECB about monetary policy can send ripples through the market. This responsiveness makes EUR/USD a popular choice for traders who thrive on analysis of market dynamics. Why Traders Choose EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair’s unique characteristics make it stand out in the market, offering potential opportunities and strategic flexibility. - Unmatched Liquidity: EUR/USD is the most liquid forex pair, meaning there’s strong trading activity. This high liquidity often translates to tighter spreads, which reduce transaction costs for traders and makes it popular among scalpers and day traders. - 24/5 Accessibility: The pair can be traded almost anytime during the week, with peak activity during the overlap of London and New York trading sessions. This accessibility makes it popular as traders can capitalise on this pair regardless of their schedule. - Macro Sensitivity: The pair responds sharply to macroeconomic developments, such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, and employment figures. This sensitivity may make it appealing to traders who thrive on analysis of major economic events. - Relatively Lower Volatility: While the pair offers ample price movement for potential trading opportunities, it’s often less volatile than emerging market pairs, making it a more measured option for risk-conscious traders. - Diverse Strategies: Its price action accommodates a variety of trading styles, from trend-following and range trading to news-based strategies. Whether you’re a short-term scalper or a long-term position trader, there’s flexibility to tailor your approach. Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD Movements The EUR/USD pair’s price movements are driven by a mix of economic, political, and market dynamics. Understanding these influences can help traders better analyse its behaviour. Economic Indicators Economic releases from the eurozone and the United States are key drivers of the pair's movements. Key reports include GDP growth, inflation rates, employment figures, and manufacturing activity. For instance, a strong US non-farm payroll report might boost the dollar, causing EUR/USD to drop. Similarly, weak eurozone inflation data could pressure the euro lower. Regularly monitoring economic calendars is crucial, as even small deviations from expectations can cause noticeable shifts. Central Bank Policies The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) wield significant influence. Interest rate decisions, monetary policy announcements, and commentary from central bank officials often trigger immediate reactions. A hawkish Fed, signalling higher interest rates, can strengthen the dollar, while dovish ECB policies might weaken the euro. Traders often focus on speeches from figures like the Fed Chair or ECB President for clues about future policy changes. Geopolitical Events Political developments can create volatility. For example, elections, trade negotiations, or economic sanctions affecting the US or eurozone can shift sentiment. Historical events like Brexit significantly impacted the euro, while US-China trade tensions affected the dollar’s performance. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite The EUR/USD pair is influenced by global market sentiment. During periods of risk aversion, the dollar often strengthens as a so-called safe-haven currency. Conversely, a risk-on environment, where investors seek higher-yielding assets, may support the euro. For example, during times of financial instability, traders may gravitate toward the relative security of the dollar, impacting the pair’s direction. Commodity Prices and Trade Balances While less direct, trade balances and commodity price changes also play a role. Higher commodity prices can weaken the euro due to increased import costs for the Eurozone, while benefiting the US as a commodity producer. Similarly, the Eurozone's trade surplus tends to support the euro, whereas the US trade deficit can pressure the dollar. Shifts in these factors often lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate. How to Trade EUR/USD A well-rounded EUR/USD trading strategy involves several key steps that help traders build a structured approach adaptable to market dynamics. 1. Finding a Broker Offering EUR/USD Trading To start trading EUR/USD, a broker providing forex trading services is essential. Many brokers offer the pair, but traders often prioritise competitive spreads, low fees, and reliable execution. For example, FXOpen provides EUR/USD trading with access to 4 advanced platforms, tight spreads from 0.0 pips, low commissions from $1.50 per lot, and fast execution speeds based on a wide range of liquidity providers. 2. Choosing a Trading Style The high liquidity of the EUR/USD pair allows traders to choose different strategies based on their objectives and market involvement: - Scalping: High liquidity and volatility during market events of EUR/USD allow traders to take advantage of scalping. - Day Trading: Day traders may also capitalise on significant market liquidity and volatility of the euro to US dollar pair. - Swing Trading: As the pair movements depend on macroeconomic analysis, trades may focus on price swings over days or weeks. - Position Trading: EUR/USD moves in solid market trends. So, those who prefer a longer-term strategy could apply it to this market. 3. Understanding and Analysing the Market Environment EUR/USD moves between trending and ranging phases. Identifying these conditions helps traders adapt their strategies. Tools like moving averages, trendlines, and oscillators such as Stochastic or Awesome Oscillator are commonly used to gauge market momentum. For ranging markets, traders may focus on support and resistance levels to anticipate price reversals. A clear technical strategy often includes identifying entry and exit points. This could involve analysing chart patterns, candlestick formations, or tools like Fibonacci retracements. Consistency in applying these methods helps traders build confidence in their analysis. 4. Understanding the Macroeconomic Environment EUR/USD reacts strongly to macroeconomic developments. Traders often assess economic indicators like interest rate changes or inflation reports, alongside sentiment-driven events such as central bank statements. Combining macroeconomic understanding with technical tools can provide a well-rounded view of the pair’s dynamics. 5. Considering Timeframes and Trading Sessions EUR/USD is most active during the overlap between the London and New York sessions. Short-term traders often focus on these times for potentially higher liquidity, usually using the 1-minute to 1-hour charts, while longer-term traders may not be as session-dependent, typically relying on 4-hour to 1-week charts. 6. Using Risk Management Traders typically integrate risk management into their approach. This includes using stop losses, understanding the impact of leverage, and sizing positions appropriately to manage risk exposure. By balancing risk and reward, traders aim to protect their capital while seeking returns. Challenges of EUR/USD Trading EUR/USD trading comes with its own set of challenges, despite its popularity, including: Volatility During Key Events EUR/USD is highly sensitive to economic data releases and central bank announcements. For example, higher-than-expected inflation data from the US can trigger a sharp rally in the dollar, pushing the pair lower. These movements can create potential opportunities but also increase the risk of losses if trades aren’t carefully managed. Overlapping Influences EUR/USD is driven by two major economies, meaning traders monitor a broad range of factors. For example, strong US economic data may boost the dollar, while strong eurozone growth could simultaneously support the euro, creating a mixed market reaction. Keeping track of both regions’ data releases and news can feel overwhelming, particularly since the euro sees releases for several key economies, like France and Germany, as well as the broader eurozone. Interest Rate Differentials Interest rate expectations between the ECB and the Fed significantly impact the pair. A surprise divergence in monetary policy may lead to rapid shifts in the EUR/USD, catching traders off-guard. Likewise, ignoring fundamentals, especially differentials in monetary policy, can lead a trader to rely too heavily on technical analysis, which may mean they trade against a strong trend driven by macroeconomics. Session Volatility The pair’s most active periods occur during the London and New York trading sessions. While this high liquidity can offer opportunities, it also means sharp intraday moves are more likely. Traders unprepared for this session-specific volatility may find themselves exposed to quick losses. The Bottom Line Trading EUR/USD offers potential opportunities thanks to its liquidity, accessibility, and responsiveness to market dynamics. This major forex pair may suit traders of all styles. Ready to start? Open an FXOpen account today and access EUR/USD trading with competitive spreads from 0.0 pips, low commissions from $1.50 per lot, and advanced tools. FAQ Why Is EUR/USD Most Traded? EUR/USD is the most traded forex pair due to its deep liquidity and accessibility. As the currencies of two of the world’s largest economies—the eurozone and the United States—it attracts traders globally. When to Trade EUR/USD? According to theory, the best time to trade EUR/USD is usually during the London and New York trading sessions overlap, roughly between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM GMT (winter time) and 12:00 PM and 4:00 PM GMT (summer time). This period usually offers higher liquidity and more significant price movements, which appeal to traders using intraday strategies. Which Pair Correlates with EUR/USD? EUR/USD often positively correlates with GBP/USD. These relationships stem from economic ties and shared market influences. Is Gold and EUR/USD Correlated? Gold and EUR/USD occasionally move together because both are inversely linked to the US dollar. When the dollar weakens, both gold and the euro may gain value, creating periods of positive correlation. How Many Pips Does EUR/USD Move Daily? According to statistics, the EUR/USD pair typically moves between 50 and 100 pips daily, depending on market conditions and news events. How Do You Trade the EUR/USD Forex Pair? Traders often combine technical analysis with macroeconomic insights to navigate EUR/USD. Potential high liquidity and tight spreads support strategies ranging from scalping to position trading. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EURUSD Hits Support Zone—Is a Bullish Reversal Coming!!!As I expected , the EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) fell to the target I set yesterday. EURUSD is moving near Support zone($1.039-$1.033) and 100_SMA(4-hour) . According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the EURUSD has succeeded in completing the corrective Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) , and we should wait for the EURUSD to rise again. One of the signs of completion can be a Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern with a suitable volume . I expect EURUSD to rise to Resistance zone($1.0534-$1.0448) after breaking the Resistance lines . Note: If EURUSD goes below $1.0333, we can expect more dumps . Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
15
EURUSD H4 Technical Observations | FOREX BEE Looking at the EUR/USD H4 chart, here are some key observations: Fibonacci Levels: The 0.618 Fibonacci level near 1.0456 appears to be a potential bullish target if price rallies from current levels. Key Support Zone: The green support zone around 1.0200-1.0230 looks significant, where buyers may defend the area. A bounce from here could trigger upward momentum. Trendline Dynamics: The blue descending trendline may continue to act as resistance if the price moves upward, aligning with the 0.786 Fibonacci level near 1.0531. Potential Scenarios: Bullish Case: If the price sustains above the current support, it may target 1.0450 and higher levels. Bearish Case: A break below the red zone near 1.0200 could indicate further bearish pressure toward 1.0100 or lower. This setup highlights an interesting reversal or breakdown possibility. Watch for confirmation of support/resistance levels before entering trades.
by forexbeesignals
EURUSD H4 | FOREX BEEEUR/USD H4 Chart Analysis The H4 chart for EUR/USD shows a critical decision zone, with two possible outcomes based on price action: --- Bullish Scenario: Breakout Above Resistance (1.04500 - 1.04600 zone): If price breaks and holds above the green resistance area, we can expect an upward move. Target:The next major resistance is 1.06947 (Fibonacci 0.5 level). Confluence: The ascending trendline (blue) suggests buyers are still in control unless broken. --- Bearish Scenario: Break Below Trendline & Support (1.04242 - 1.04000): If price fails to break above resistance and drops below the trendline, we could see a reversal. Target: A breakdown could lead price towards the 1.02500 demand zone (red). Confluence: Trendline breakdown + retest would confirm further downside. --- Key Levels to Watch: Resistance Zone: 1.04500 - 1.04600 (Breakout confirmation required for bullish continuation). Support Zone:1.04242 - 1.04000 (Potential breakdown zone). Major Downside Target:1.02500 (Demand zone from previous price action). --- Trading Strategy: Bullish Entry: Wait for a break and retest above 1.04600 before entering long. Bearish Entry: If price breaks below trendline and retests 1.04242, shorting towards 1.02500 is a possibility. Conclusion: - The trend is bullish as long as the price holds above the trendline and 1.04242 support. - If price fails to break resistance, a reversal is likely. - Watch for confirmations before entering trades.
by forexbeesignals
US Economic Data Impact: Will EURUSD Test Support zone Again?Today, key U.S. economic data was released , including GDP , Unemployment Claims , and the GDP Price Index . These data points had a direct impact on the U.S. dollar, resulting in volatility in the EURUSD pair . The weaker-than-expected GDP and lower inflation caused a temporary weakening of the USD, but the strong labor market data still supports the dollar, potentially limiting further downside for EURUSD. This was an analysis of the US economic data that was released today. ------------------------------------ EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) entered the Resistance zone($1.054-$1.044) again, and it seems that this move is a Pullback to the ascending channel (broken) . According to Elliott's wave theory , pullback appears to be a Zigzag corrective wave(ABC/5-3-5) . I expect EURUSD to attack the Support zone($1.039-$1.033) again, 100_SMA(4-hour) , and decline to at least the width of the broken ascending channel . Was the bullish candle the previous hour in the role of a pullback or the start of another upward trend for EURUSD? Note: If EURUSD goes over $1.049, we can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
11