EURUSD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
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EURUSD: First time over the 1W MA200 since November 2021EURUSD crossed today over the 1W MA200 for the first time since November 8th 2021. This more than 1.5 year wait comes as an incredibly strong long term bullish signal if the 1W candle closes over the 1W MA200. If it does, we will buy and target the R1 (TP1 = 1.13900) and R2 (TP2 = 1.15000).
If it doesn't, then expect a rejection as this is the top also for the Channel Up and the 1D timeframe is already overbought (RSI = 73.402, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 28.802). The RSI in particular is at the top of its Rectangle pattern which matches the price's Channel Up. Consequently if the candle closes under the 1W MA200, we will sell and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 1.09500).
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EURUSD: Is running out of Triangle space and will soon break outEURUSD is trading inside a Descending Triangle with the 4H MA50 rejecting lately every bullish break out attempt and the 4H MA200 acting as Support. Natually the 4H technicals are neutral (RSI = 43.233, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 36.327) but so are those on 1D. Fundamentally the market is waiting for Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls before it makes a move but even technically, the pair is running out of room inside the pattern.
If the 4H candle closes over the 4H MA50, it will be a bullish break out and we will buy targeting the R2 (TP = 1.10500). If it closes under the 4H MA200 and HL trendline of June, we will sell and target the S2 (TP = 1.07335).
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EURUSD: Market continues to move in a downtrendEUR/USD declined on Wednesday, quickly reaching below 1.0900 and then rebounding in the US session, cutting losses. The Euro is still supported by expectations of interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB), reaffirmed by Lagarde's comments. At the same time, bets on interest rate hikes increased in July from the Federal Reserve (Fed), supporting the US Dollar.
Inflation data from the Eurozone has started to be released. Italy's harmonized consumer price index slowed down from 8% to 6.7% in June.
On Thursday, Spain and Germany will report inflation, and on Friday, the Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be due. The headline EZ is expected to decrease from 6.1% to 5.6%. Another report released on Wednesday showed a decline in the GfK Consumer Confidence survey, with a drop from -24.4 to -25.4. This is the first decline since October.
EURUSD: ECB President Lagarde Speaks!The EUR/USD pair is taking a break around 1.0960 after posting its biggest daily gain in a week during a two-day rally. This suggests that the Euro has been boosted by hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials the previous day, while paying little attention to optimistic US data. However, cautious sentiment ahead of key speeches from top central bank figures including ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the ECB Forum in Sintra has further fueled the currency pair's price increase.
EURUSD: New Channel Up emerging. Buy and target the Resistances.EURUSD broke again over the 4H MA50 after closing over the 1D MA50 and keeping the 4H MA100 intact. The 1D time frame is on excellent bullish technicals (RSI = 60.189, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 30.775) while the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross.
We see the potential for the emergence of a Channel Up and every Higher High matches the upper Resistance levels. We are buying every pull back inside the Channel with the end target at the top of the multi month Channel Up (TP = 1.11500).
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EURUSD has started the 2nd part of the bullish leg.EURUSD is trading inside a 6 month Channel Up.
The recent rebound on the MA50 (1d) has confirmed the start of the 2nd part of the bullish leg that started at the bottom of the Channel Up on May 31st.
This is in similar fashion as the March 24th rebound.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.11400 (top of the Channel Up on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) rebounded on its MA line, again same as the March 24th rebound. A sideways RSI trade, will continue to further confirm the similarities of the two bullish sequences and validate our target.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURUSD Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
EURUSD: ECB President Lagarde Speaks!The EUR/USD experienced a slight increase on a calm Monday in the financial markets. This week, important inflation data will be released, and central bankers will be making speeches. The US dollar weakened moderately on Monday due to a decrease in US yields and a rise in commodity prices.
On Monday, data was released showing a decline in the German Ifo, following pessimism triggered by PMI data on Friday. The headline index for June dropped from 91.5 to 88.5, which was below the market's expectation of 90.7. Additionally, the Expectation Index fell from 88.3 to 83.6, and the Current Assessment decreased from 94.8 to 93.7.
The European Central Bank's forum on central banking in Sintra has begun, with numerous central bank officials from around the world attending. ECB President Lagarde and other policymakers will be speaking multiple times, starting on Tuesday. If the ECB wants to communicate a message to the market this week, it has an opportunity to do so. It is most likely that they will stick to the current "data-dependent" approach and signal another rate hike in July.
Fed Chair Powell will also be speaking at the Sintra forum on Wednesday, but it is unlikely that there will be any surprises
EURUSD: Consolidation turning into a Buy.EURUSD is trading near the HL 1 trendline with the 4H timeframe about to turn neutral again (RSI = 57.365, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 18.019) after being overbought last week on June 15th-16th. Along with the 4H RSI testing the bottom of its Channel Up, this is our first buy entry on the medium term with the second being on a potential contact with the 4H MA50 at 1.08750. On both entries our target is the R1 (TP = 1.10075).
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EURUSD: Overbought on 4H, may experience a short term pullback.EURUSD turned overbought on the 4H time frame (RSI = 74.381, MACD = 0.005, ADX = 54.586) following the parabolic rise yesterday. As we mentioned on our analysis last month, the pair has been rising strongly basically since the May 31st bottom. As the 4H MA50 is about to cross over the 4H MA200 for the first time since March 21st and form a Golden Cross, we expect a pull back first near the 0.618 Fibonacci.
We will buy at 1.08450, assuming the 4H MA50 gets hit, and target R1 (TP = 1.10075).
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