NIO PENDING REVERSAL (UPDATE)DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis update for my previous prediction for NIO.
POINTS:
1. Adjusted pockets for SUPPLY & DEMAND: 1ST LEVEL = $14 - $24 & 2ND LEVEL = $33 - $43.
2. SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKETS do in fact show a common deviation of 10 points of spread.
3. Current $9.50 is serving as CRITICAL SUPPORT that is broken would invalidate entire setup.
4. If we come to see a continuation of this sideways consolidation between $9.50 & $14 price action will begin to squeeze for bullish divergence.
5. More than covered gap from early July 2020.
Scenario #1: Bullish scenario can mean we see price action move into 1ST LEVEL SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONE as we invalidate bearish trend.
Scenario #2: Bearish scenario can mean we break below our critical support of $9.50 and fall to $6.00.
NYSE:NIO
EV
LCID TO 4??? / MACRO ANALYSIS / FIB / DEVIATIONPoints:
- LCID is showing a Deviation of 6 Points placing current price action in new channel.
- Current channel = Supply Zone at $10 & Demand Zone at $4.
- Down 89.19% in past 405 days.
- RSI Average at an all time low.
IMO: I would consider LCID to be a reasonable buy at $4. Opening a position at these prices with appropriate risk management skills can come come to yield decent returns in the near future.
Legrand (LR.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Channel Up can be found in the daily chart of the French company Legrand (LR.pa). Legrand is a French industrial group. It is one of the world leaders in electrical and digital building infrastructures and connected solutions. Legrand is established in 90 countries and its products are distributed in nearly 180. It generates 85% of its sales internationally. The group has expanded its product range in sustainable development and energy saving technologies, and has developed new products for EV charging/electric vehicles, lighting control and datacenters. The Channel Up broke through the support line on 23/12/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 17 days towards 71.80 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 85.88 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Legrand, a world leader in electrical, digital infrastructure and connected solutions, has announced its acquisition of Encelium, an Ontario, Canada-based manufacturer of advanced commercial lighting controls. The acquisition of Encelium brand and products, which takes effect immediately, comes as part of Legrand's ongoing global strategy to further strengthen its position in the commercial lighting control sector. A leader in this category, Encelium is already an integral component within thousands of buildings, supporting the needs of occupants, tenants, and facilities managers through people-centric lighting and energy efficiency.
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DGSTACC: PSNY MACRO ANALYSIS!!!In the chart above I have provided a textbook example of what might be unfolding for PSNY.
1. Previously confirmed Supply & Demand channels remain intact.
2. Recent move to the upside can be confirming that a new HIGHER LOW which in turn confirms the floor for current trend.
3. Important for price action to stay above 5.50 to avoid an early retest of lower timeframe.
NASDAQ:PSNY
PEV | Good Entry Point | BouncePhoenix Motor Inc. designs, assembles, and integrates electric drive systems and light and medium duty electric vehicles. The company offers buses and trucks. It focuses on developing light and medium duty commercial electric vehicles for various service and government fleet markets, including city fleets, campuses, municipalities, and transit agencies; and serves a spectrum of commercial fleet customers, such as airport shuttle operators, hotel chains, transit fleet operators, seaports, last-mile delivery fleets, and large corporations. The company also markets and sells electric vehicle chargers for the commercial and residential markets; and operates a sales and leasing dealership in the United States. In addition, it sells various L2 and DC fast-charging solutions to its fleet customers at the point of sale for fleet vehicles. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Anaheim, California. Phoenix Motor Inc. operates as a subsidiary of Edisonfuture Inc.
DGSTACC: TESLA BOUNCE INCOMING!!!In the chart above I have provided a macro analysis of TESLA by providing a visual on confirmed channels, past and current trend & RSI patterns.
Points:
1. Channels show a deviation of 60 points currently placing us in the second to last channel that holds between 60 - 20 for DEMAND & SUPPLY .
2. Current channel is in fact risky to buy into considering we are in a Supply Zone with a channel that has seen little consolidation in past price action.
3. Tesla is now currently down 73% in the past year.
4. We are now currently in what I believe to be a SHORT BELOW CURRENT TREND that should come to see a pull back into our current down trend at least.
5. RSI is at a crucial pivot point where a dead cat bounce is worst case scenario if we are to take away from previous times RSI has been this low.
Note: A squeezing triangle pattern has been indicative of a bullish climb in the near future.
NASDAQ:TSLA
DGSTACC: LCID TO 4??? / MACRO ANALYSIS / FIB / DEVIATIONPoints:
- LCID is showing a Deviation of 6 Points placing current price action in new channel.
- Current channel = Supply Zone at $10 & Demand Zone at $4 .
- Down 89.19% in past 405 days.
- RSI Average at an all time low.
IMO : I would consider LCID to be a reasonable buy at $4. Opening a position at these prices with appropriate risk management skills can come come to yield decent returns in the near future.
RIDE | Incoming Bounce | OVERSOLDLordstown Motors Corp. develops, manufactures, and sells Endurance, an electric full-size pickup truck for fleet customers. The company was founded in 2019 and is based in Lordstown, Ohio.
EVGO | Time to Charge Up | LONGEVgo, Inc. owns and operates a direct current fast charging network in the United States. The company offers electricity directly to drivers, who access its publicly available networked chargers; original equipment manufacturer charging and related services; fleet and rideshare public charging services; and charging as a service and fleet dedicated charging services. It also provides ancillary services, such as customization of digital applications, charging data integration, loyalty programs, access to chargers behind parking lot, or garage, pay gates and pilots microtargeted advertising, and charging reservations; and maintenance and development and project management services through eXtendTM, including electric vehicle supply equipment installation, networking, and operations. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Los Angeles, California.
DGSTACC: PSNY UPDATE CHANNELS / RESISTANCE & SUPPORTIn the chart above I have provided an update for my previously published idea that was a lot more bullish on PSNY.
1. $4.60 to $4.80 gap has been filled.
2. Price action should be squeezed between bottom trend line and supply pocket at $5.00.
3. Crucial for us to get on top of $5.50 to get on a more steady trend.
4. STAY ALERT FOR 50K CARS DELIVERED BY END OF YEAR FOR POLESTAR. NASDAQ:PSNY
TSLA Major Confluence Long Signal!Going to keep this simple. We have a touch on the bottom of the descending parallelly channel, a major horizontal support line, and the golden pocket. This is a very bullish setup for TSLA to bounce. Stops should be placed below golden pock with the right position size and risk management to protect your account incase the bears manage to push the price through this major support.
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$NIO Pending Reversal On Down Trend?In the chart I have provided an analysis on the following points:
1. Confirmed Supply & Demand Pockets (Total of 2).
2. If side movement continues past February 28th chart would be invalidated.
3. Break above $20 would confirm break of downward trend & place us in supply territory for Fibonacci.
Recycling Batteries will be a Big Focus in the Energy TransitionThose of us following the markets in 2022 have tended to hear certain words again and again:
Supply chains
Energy shortage
Inflation
Renewable energy metals
We need energy. We want to transition from significant emissions of greenhouse gases towards more sustainable, climate-neutral sources of energy. It is difficult to foresee the demand for batteries dropping at any point in the near future.
But, there is a problem. Redwood Materials, a company that is focusing on battery recycling, articulates it very clearly in the title of Figure 1 and then in their infographic. The COVID-19 pandemic laid bare the fact that many things have built towards highly globalised supply chains. Batteries are a critical example, and securing supply is a topic that many regions are thinking about today.
A circular economy?
Intuitively, recycling battery metals makes a lot of sense. Instead of constantly sourcing more raw nickel, cobalt, lithium etc., it would be more efficient to make use of the existing stock of metals already in use in various physical products. The map in Figure 1 also makes another important point—the specific metals used in the manufacture of batteries are not evenly dispersed across the globe. Certain countries and regions have copious amounts, while others don’t have any.
It may be the case that we are early, and this is sometimes an issue in thematic equity investing. The concept and idea might be clear but getting the timing of the possible take-off can be tricky.
It is simple to picture the idea of electric vehicles (EVs) ending their useful lives and heading to the scrap yard, like any other vehicle. However, we are still early in terms of EV adoption, so we don’t have EVs at scale heading to the scrap yard at the end of their usable lives. That day will come, but not immediately.
This is important to understand, in that it tells us that the materials being recycled are not expected to be the actual batteries that were used for multiple years in an EV. Rather, the inputs into recycling will likely be scrap material from the increasing number of gigafactories coming online. This scrap could account for 78% of the pool of recyclable materials in 20251.
It is then estimated that in the mid 2030’s, end-of-life batteries will supersede scrap materials from factories, but extracting the valuable lithium, cobalt, nickel and other metals from existing end-of-life batteries will be a more involved process than processing scrap metals from factories2.
Geopolitics may offer a natural push towards recycling firms
In 2022, when one is trying to analyse the possible forward path of the relationship between certain countries (for example, US vs China) it is very difficult to know what might happen. China is the major processor of some of the most important battery metals (see Figure 2), which will likely be a major source of tension for Western countries. Based on what we can see today, we have to imagine that Western countries would prefer a greater independence of supply away from a dependence on China if that can be a reasonable possibility.
Conclusion: recent activities show companies making moves on this front
Ascend Elements is a start-up that is aiming to be an emerging centre of battery production in the Southeastern US. Jaguar Land Rover and SK Group have contributed, along with other investors, to put $300 million into the firm. It is seeking to commercialise an efficient method, termed ‘hydro-to-cathode’, to turn used lithium-ion batteries into new components. As of the recent funding, Ascend Elements is valued at $500 million3.
The Inflation Reduction Act is also notable, in that it focuses on defining how much battery material is coming from domestic production. ‘Domestic’ in this context means ‘inside the US.’ This creates an immediate incentive for recycling players to ramp up their production and operations in the US, as it would then connect electric-car tax credits for consumers back to batteries that are at least majority-sourced from inside the US4.
The primary risk in the space appears to be whether the recyclers can effectively achieve a scale of their operations to bring down unit costs and allow for strong financial performance before waves and waves of existing EV batteries start getting retired. Even if batteries from laptops and smartphones are recycled, it may not be enough material to scale operations and allow the companies to progress towards profitability5.
WisdomTree believes in the importance of the global energy transition, of which battery recycling is certainly a part that can grow over time. Diversification across the supply chain may mitigate the risk of being a bit early to certain parts of the picture.
$LTHM: EV adoption + inelastic supply...I think $LTHM offers tremendous long term upside here from a fundamental POV, as well as technical. I have a LEAPS position going, aiming to capture the upside in the chart. I suggest you keep some long term exposure to it via shares or calls (riskier, Jan 2024 calls should be fine).
Miners will have a tough time ramping up lithium mining to meet EV makers demand, as more and more battery factories are being built. This has tremendous potential to boost lithium demand while supply remains capped. Much higher lithium prices will ensue until supply can increase (not likely, and there's no economical way to replace the current extraction methods yet).
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.