Bitcoin - The Yer of the RAT - Chinese New Year AnalysisMy weird thirst for knowledge and analysis brings us to another study. This time we are going to take a look at and breakdown Price Action during the Chinese New Years.
This is neither the time or the place to write an article on the Chinese New Years, so I'll leave you to research that to your hearts content. What we should be aware of is there are many cultures involved and they al celebrate a bit differently. Some start a week before, some a few days before and some the night before. Some celebrate for one day while others for three, some for seven and there are even some who celebrate for fifteen days.
What is the PURPOSE?
I believe that the Asian Market contributes a lot to Bitcoin trading. Volume, Price Action, Mining, etc. All these things are intertwined and just like here in America during Major Holidays, traders can lose focus of the charts and spend more time with Family and less time trading. I will be looking for any anomalies that show up when the Chinese New Year is happening to see if there are any similarities or weight to this theory.
The knowledge that is readily available is the actual Date of the Chinese New Year and that will be the center of the focus here.
2012 - 23 Jan Dragon - Monday
2013 - 10 Feb Snake - Sunday
2014 - 31 Jan Horse - Friday
2015 - 19 Feb Goat - Thursday
2016 - 8 Feb Monkey - Monday
2017 - 28 Jan Rooster - Saturday
2018 - 16 Feb Dog - Friday
2019 - 5 Feb Pig - Tuesday
2020 - 25 Jan Rat - Saturday
We are using BitSTAMP for the history.
Anyway, enough of the intro, let's get rolling...
2012 - Monday, January 23 - The Year of the Dragon
(I know. The price action in 2012 was absolute garbage but we will look nonetheless)
The preceding trend was upward
The preceding volume was trending down
The week before started making the turn for a pullback
The Day Itself - Nothing unusual
The first week - continued down with aggressive lows
The second week - continued down with some aggressive lows but recovered high
2013 - Sunday, February 10 - The Year of the Snake
The preceding trend was upward - Slightly
The preceding volume was flat
The week before continue rise from trend
The Day Itself - Nothing unusual
The first week - 6/8 candles in a row - steady rise
The second week - The Rise continues
Volume - Nothing unusual during the run but very low on the day before and the day of
2014 - Friday, January 31 - The Year of the Horse
The preceding trend was down
The preceding volume was declining
The week before - Down
The Day Itself - Doji - Indecision
The first week - Day one dump - Day 2-7 retrace dump
The second week - Steady selloff
Volume - Very low - Built up during selloff at the end of the second week
2015 - Thursday, February 19 - The Year of the GOAT
The preceding trend was down
The preceding volume was flat, ramp up and ramp down
The week before - Up with a heavy pullback
The Day Itself - Nothing special
The first week - Slow rise ascending tri
The second week - Down M-TH - Up on Weekend
Volume - Overall steady decline - Last Saturday pump
Notes: That upward sloping trend was the trend from the 2013 festival
2016 - Monday, February 16 - The Year of the Monkey
The preceding trend was symmetrical triangle
The preceding volume was declining - one bump
The week before - Up with a slow drop
The Day Itself - Bearish, nothing special
The first week - Steady Rise
The second week - Steady Rise - Broke Pattern
Volume - Overall fairly flat
Notes: The Weekend Volume before the New Year was incredibly low
2017 - Saturday, January 28 - The Year of the Rooster
The preceding trend was upward from year prior
The preceding volume was rising with quick decline
The week before - Good upward push
The Day Itself - Doji - Very little trading
The first week - Pullback with retrace
The second week - Steady Rise - Great push
Volume - Decline until week 2
Notes: Upward sloping trend in white is from the Year of the Monkey the year prior
2018 - Friday, February 16 - The Year of the Dog
The preceding trend was sharp decline from (ATH)
The preceding volume was fairly even with some breakouts
The week before - Huge trend reversal
The Day Itself - Nothing special
The first week - Another big push to the upside
The second week - Local high and then pullback
Volume - Big pop for reversal week before - then pretty flat
Notes: This 5920 was a key level before the 2018 Low was achieved
2019 - Tuesday, February 05 - The Year of the Pig
The preceding trend was symmetrical triangle (the 2018 bottom
The preceding volume was a sharp decline
The week before - Decline - higher lows
The Day Itself - Nothing special
The first week - 4 day decline - Friday pump
The second week - Steady Decline
Volume - Week before down but slow rise after that
Notes: This is the Same Trend from the year of the MONKEY - That was 2015
---2020---NOT READY
2020 - Saturday, January 25 - The Year of the Rat
The preceding trend was heavily down
The preceding volume was declining with some pops
The week before - Big push to the high side
The Day Itself -
The first week -
The second week -
Volume - High with sharp decline the week before
Notes: This is the Same Trend from the year of the MONKEY - That was 2015 - Still the SAME Trend
Cleaning up the chart with a fully Zoomed out view..
I saw a few things of interest
These two downward sloping trends are nearly parallel
But look at the trend from the Year of the SNAKE in 2013 - That trend Broke to end the 2014 Bear Market and it is the same trend to END the 2017 BULL Market
The trend from the Year of the Monkey held the Rooster and the 2018 Low as well as the Year of the Pig.
Now Nothing is official yet but if we don't trade under 3122 again, then this trend would have started the next BULL market.
Results for the Three Week Period
Results for the Week of
2012 was such a joke that I avoided it altogether. The price action was incredible.
2013
Week of - 15.33% Gain
3 Weeks - 54.35% Gain
2014
Week of - 0.04% Gain
3 Weeks - -18.32% Loss
2015
Week of - 0.77% Gain
3 Weeks - 15.37% Gain
2016
Week of - 8% Gain
3 Weeks - 19% Gain
2017
Week of - -1.27% Loss
3 Weeks - 23% Gain
2018
Week of - 29.02% Gain
3 Weeks - 17.08% Gain
2019
Week of - 6.93% Gain
3 Weeks - 2.64% Gain
So it turns out that the Chinese New Year, or at least the Week of and the 3 Week period is actually usually profitable.
Only 1 year showed a loss during the week of and it was a 1.27% loss in 2017. The three week period was a 23% gain however.
For the 3 Week period, only 1 year had a loss and it was an 18.32% loss in 2014. The Week of had a tiny 0.04% Gain
The biggest Week of Gain -
2018 - 29.02% Gain
The biggest Week of Loss -
2017 - 1.27% Loss (The only Week of Loss)
The biggest 3 Week period Gain -
2013 - 54.35% Gain
The biggest 3 Week period Loss -
2014 - 18.32% Loss (The only 3 Week Loss)
Event
Long Term Bear, do not hold 3x futures based productsI enjoy trading DRIP and I believe long term, oil is worth less than today. ESG is a movement that will continue, especially when it comes to China and India's eventual and inevitable higher participating in the space. Day trade DRIP, but do not hold. The issue arises from the cost to roll the futures and the cost to leverage the future or ETF into a swap that returns the 3x. The cost is high, the slippage is insurmountable, and the product will deteriorate even if you chose the correct trade. Examples of this are everywhere. Trade events and noise, it is a risk / reward play. Saudi oil field was the last great play for this product, any large move up in CL1 would be a short term long DRIP. If you chose to trade the technicals, do not use the ETF, but CL1. This includes USO, this will also deteriorate away from CL1.
**no position, but always waiting
**happy to share further details on this topic and how these products function
US Dollar Index Weekly PredictionSELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
US Dollar Index weekly Prediction
Chart time frame - H4
Timeframe - 1-2 weeks
Actions on -
A – Activating Event
US Dollar Index will see another bull run this week.
B – Beliefs
Market will be rejected at @12276 level however consolidate and then move towards the first Target 1 level @ 12315.
Trade Management
Entered @ Still waiting for confirmation
Stop Loss @
Target @
Risk/Reward @
Happy Trading :)
EURGBP BUY OPPORTUNITY. EVENT TRADING - BoEBank of England (BoE) meeting minutes 12:00 UTC today (2nd August)
Two Catalysts for EUR/GBP
1) BoE will announce its interest rate decision at 14:00 UTC+2 on 2nd of August. Markets are pricing 80-90% implied probability of a rate hike to 0.75% (it is 0.5% now).
From reported economic indicators, the unemployment rate remains glued at 4.25% and wage growth has decelerated compared to latest inflation report from May ( from 2.9% to 2.7%). Core inflation has also surprised to the downside.
Calculating using the futures contracts, markets have priced in the rate hike, therefore there should not be a gap up if they hike. In that case the market would react more on BoE outlook of the economy and economic projections, and there is a chance they will not be as good as markets may expect, as expectations right now are really high, Which gives me grounds to believe that even with a rate hike there is bigger change of a gap up of EUR/GBP (weak GBP) than gap down.
And if they surprisingly do not hike, then than would be a hell gap up omg that would be awesome.. :D
2) You can also see that EUR/GBP is on the up trend and is approaching lower trend line, which is a huge support for this pair. That means that there is a technical catalyst for EUR/GBP to go up.
TRON/BTCAn analysis for TRON on request by one of my followers following main net launch on May 31st.
We broke the (black) downtrend on 20th March and had a nice upward movement afterwards.
Subsequently the (red) uptrend was broken and we bounced on major (blue) horizontal support which gave us a higher low and a new (blue) uptrend.
Don't chase the market, know what you want to see, wait and let the market come to you.
So what do I want to see before opening a trade?
We have take into account these possible situations:
1) We go straight up to (red) resistance and 0.382 Fib (light green) --> no position taken (red arrows)
2) 12H candle closes under 0.236 Fib (red) and we break the (blue) trend line --> no position taken (red arrows)
3) 12H candle closes under 0.236 Fib and we retest the (blue) trend line. In that case we look for a reversal candle that indicates a bounce on the trend line and the continuation of the upward movement --> Long position taken (green arrows) with stop loss under blue trend line and 0.236/0.382/0.5 Fibs as Profit
Now we do the 'fun' part, we wait.
Bitcoin crossing multi-trend star event horizon into 2018It can be seen that a decision occurred on around january 28th 2018. This is a pivotal event horizon of all trend lines of the last 6 months. Now bitcoin price is moving past all measured trends lines which were established during the december rise. It seems major groups of traders (people, bots and Big Data A.I.) had their vision set on certain linear movements but this is proving to be an incomplete assessment due to human psychological tendencies of the types of people who are technologically more aware as compared to the mass of humanity. Such people are forming various new crypto-trading communities and have a profound advantage over the average and even advanced traders of traditional markets, so long as they remain outside of the popular data-mining schemes of business behind HCI. This is because their technological approach is a mirror of their psychology: decentralization, meaning shared insight in real-time over significant economic events. The price of bitcoin can indeed rise indefinately if all such trend lines are surpassed because the traditional established systems have lost control.
Long Analysis backed by upcoming events-ARN/BTCUpcoming events later this month- Lobbying with Aviation Authorities ;
Token integeration ;
Pilot and company App public launch.
The price action has entered the maturity phase of consolidation with price unable to breach the support(neon green) level.
A bit of divergence has been observed in RSI and MFI marked within the vertical lines.
A movement from the squeezed bollinger bands may be expected with an increase in volume which may be expected due to upcoming events in the instrument in discussion.
Trade may be taken if a bullish break out of the flag occurs.
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DISCLAIMER : THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT THE BEST POSSIBLE PRICE FORECAST ACCORDING TO US. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH BEFORE TAKING ACTIONS.
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Good luck! :)
Anarchapulco has started, so is BCHLast year, DASH made an astonishing pump during and after the Anarchapulco in Mexico. Reason? DASH was the main sponsor of this event. The same event started yesterday and sponsored by.... Bitcoin.com. And we're already seeing small pumps on BCH since the event started yesterday. Anarchapulco is closing this monday.
I'm holding till Monday/Tuesday and hoping for a pump during or even after the event. I'm NOT telling you that you should invest, but it's just an idea for a small trade. Quite a gamble, but isn't it all..
Tomorrow 15th. #nxc #BTV #beyondthevoid #nexium #bitcoin #cryptoTomorrow 15th. it will be the first beyond the Void tournment.
Normally, when they are in an event, they share good news and jumps.
Good luck
VRX Medium Term TAVRX pushing towards the Avg. Analyst Estimate of 38.10.
News & Analyst driven. Volatile.
$38.00 PT -
Breakout over $38.15 is a clear strong buy signal.
Rejection is a short back into the channel.