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Evergrande

Virtual vs Real Estate - $MANA vs US/Chinese Real-EstateIt's always been a dream of mine to have a creative space where artists, intellectuals, entrepreneurs and activists could congregate and meet. High costs of living made this impossible but we might be able to do something similar in the #metaverse, which is the next best thing. I've already seen some amazing stuff in Decentraland and Cryptovoxels despite it being very early. Very bullish on the direction the metaverse is going in right now. Once royalties and distribution of #NFTs get streamlined, there's no telling how big this thing could get. IRL, artists have already been displaced many times due to NIMBYism and a society that just can't be bothered to give creatives the decency of basic infrastructure and services. #Crypto gives a low-cost option of selling their work in ways that Web2 failed to do. So the goal of NFTs, Metaverse, and crypto-based creative projects should be to make as much cool things as possible, to draw attention away from traditional arts/entertainment venues and brick-n-mortar museums/galleries to shift demand towards these mediums over IRL ones. Real-estate prices are way overinflated right now due to decades of NIMBYism, mismanagement and corruption in the appraisal process and is waiting to pop any day now. The metaverse may be just the thing needed to accelerate that pop. This is good for most people, as a whole. Ignore the talking heads saying that a real-estate crash would hurt the poor. That type of trickle-down BS is what got us into our current situation to begin with and should be dismissed entirely. A deflated housing market will reduce rents and homelessness - it's just math. So in a way, the metaverse IS the market correction in the IRL real-estate market that we've been waiting for. Induced demand goes digital, countering the artificial scarcity of NIMBY practices in the real world, and will reach a new equilibrium of sorts after a few years. After that, it's anyone's game. But we get interesting content in the digital world while reducing rents IRL at the same time. A win-win. But my money is on $MANA, $ETH, and NFTs since they're small in size by comparison and has a lot of room to grow. That's how money is made. If you need proof, this chart showing MANA doing inversely well against the US and Chinese real-estate market right now. The US markets are printing a lot of money to keep their prices artificially high, but as inflation rises it's going to reach a point where growth will no longer be possible. And so far it's pointing in the direction that crash could result in crypto assets experiencing exponential growth as a result.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
✅ALIBABA LOCAL LONG/PORTFOLIO ADDITION🚀 ✅ALIBABA is trading in a downtrend Following the company's falling out of favor With the Chinese Government And fueled further by the Coming Evergrande collapse That will drag China down with it Today, the stock gapped and fell even lower On the earnings news However, a massive support level is ahead At around 128$ per share, and I think This might be a great local long With the upside limited by the falling resistance Also, with the stock trading with 60% discount It might be a good place to start adding BABA to your long term portfolio As it is clear that whatever economic storm is coming Alibaba will be the one candidate to survive it LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
NYSE:BABALong
by ProSignalsFx
11
EverGrande (3333/EGRNF) - a possible Christmas present!Evergrande is mostly being discussed only in a relation to the fall of Alibaba, or the rise of JD.com or changes in the Chinese economy. However, somehow it doesn't ring the bell that when such a Chinese giant falls, and eventually doesn't seem to go bankrupt, that it's a possible golden mine for the future. Currently EGRNF (which is a US equivalent of 3333) is being traded at 0.33$/st., while in the old good times it was reaching in a peak 3.5+$/st. (or 2.73 HKD vs 30 HKD) - meaning x10 times the value of current price. In other words, if Evergrande will eventually will not go bankrupt, it will recover. Especially considering the policies of the Chinese government which is very busy with maximizing own sustainablity and financial growth. Evengrande in a current state seems as a golden mine, which is somehow currently overlooked by the crowds. There is a challenge though. which I came across, seeing that some European banks are not willing to allow trading this stock. It is visible in the trading system as active, but there is no way to purchase it. Quite frustrating, not being able to purchase this stock on such a great opportunity. Current trend: It seems quite far at the moment from the 4.50 HKD level, therefore it may yet return to the 2.50 HKD. The moment it will confidently pass 4.50 HKD, it will most likely be a sign of coming back from dead, and from that moment it may pick up quite rapidly.
HKEX:3333
by inducto
The Ending of an Era - HSIOriginal Chart This is Based Off 2018 update Original Trade Strategy Around This Chart Everything should be self explanatory in the chart. Of course - this will work until it doesn't, but since the 1990, the HSI index hitting its upper resistance line has nailed every major global market top within a very short timeframe. You can see how perfect this has timed markets with the correlation to the SPX index in the lower chart. Hypothetically speaking, when you would hit the upper resistance line, you would short emerging markets to hedge against whatever is about to happen. Then when this hits the lower resistance line, you would go long major market indexes until you arrive back at the upper resistance line (SPX, etc). 2022 - End of an Era? As most can see, this chart is a very very long narrowing wedge / channel. The volatility between drawdowns and rises was far greater the further back you go, and the drawdowns have all been proportionally smaller as we narrow within the channel bouncing off top and bottom resistance (and sometimes in between). With that said, narrowing channels like this indicate increasing fragility of the trend, and potentially suppressed volatility. Eventually, something has to give, and this will break the long term pattern. I believe we're close to that point, and that's not a good sign for asian markets. I don't know exactly what would happen if this breaks to the downside, but I don't think it would be pretty. Stable systems such as this have a way of becoming extremely chaotic when the stability breaks. Chaotic markets = drawdowns / crashes, and given the current state of Chinese markets and politics, this shouldn't be too surprising that it could be possible. The ongoing Chinese real estate crisis is just getting going, and the party has so far remained committed towards deflating their real estate bubble. Fundamentally, Hong Kong is just as bad if not worse than China from a real estate speculation / valuation perspective, yet there are additional problems in HK with people fleeing the territory due to the Chinese takeover following the 2018 protests. Demographics are strongly against this market, valuations are strongly against this market, and the current economics of this look rather dire without any major positive windows into future development / growth. From a technical perspective, this is also far weaker than every other time it's hit the bottom resistance line. Note that every other instance we hit the lower resistance line, we also were hitting the lower monthly bollinger band at the same time. Not included within the chart, but momentum indicators also are showing a lot of negative divergences. You can see this from simply looking at the chart and noting the covid recovery bounce has been far weaker than every other post-lower boundary recovery bounce. We didn't even make it up to the middle resistance line before retesting. My guess and view is that this won't break easily, but it will break dramatically. I think there is a good chance we see another rally here back towards one of the resistance lines, but after that, momentum will have really worn off. I also think we could chop around the lower resistance for a while, but ultimately, we are likely going to break down here on a secular basis. Maybe Kyle Bass will actually be validated after being wrong for 10+ years (except he's probably already been stopped out of all his poorly timed trades)?
TVC:HSIShort
by GTStockmaster
22
The end of a cycle - Shiba btc spy tsla apple link dxy gld tltEvergrande again at the end of the year and I’m starting to believe this is it. We might get one big pump only for the whales to fill their shorts but the market has topped out imo. I will be looking to short btc at 67-68k and hold it to 40k at least. Market showing so many top signs and evergrande is just the trigger to break down. In the very least get ur money out of the market before the bottom falls out. We have peaked its all down hill from here.
by WalrusFat
2
Update on the market crash Duursma, Yuri. summary of the potential market crash 2021-2022 analysis + why •Short↘️🔻(waiting for the right time) written on: 20:26 Thursday, October 28, 2021 (updated on Wednesday November 10th) Central European Time (CET) S&P 500 Index (and the entire market with it) We broke out of a rising wedge a couple of weeks ago. On the 3rd of November, we broke back into the wedge. 2 days later on the 5th, we hit the top of the wedge, following with a rejection to the downside. so we are probably heading towards the bottom of the wedge. The rising wedge closes on $4880. And since there is an extremely high probability that a wedge breaks out towards the downside, the price will drop to arround $4150. However, I think that this event will cause the markets to panic because there are a lot of other factors that are causing problems in the markets. •Almost every indicator suggests that we are overvalued in the long term. 94% correlation between the Nasdaq 100 in the 15 years to today, and the 15 years to 2000. The S&P500 shows a 95% correlation. We all know what happened during 2000s, the markets collapsed. shiller PE ratio is at 40.14 on the day of writing this. The mean is at 16.88 and the median is at 15.86. 40.14/16.88*100≈ 238% 238-100= 138% This means that we are 138% overvalued. •The warren buffet indicator is telling us that we are strongly overvalued. The indicator sits at 218%. The exponential trendline suggests that a Market Value to GDP ratio of 120% to be fairly valued. •long term trendline warren buffet indicator: We are 71% higher then the long-term trend line. •We printed a ton of money during the COVID-19 period. When we had the 2020 march crash, the stock market recovered insanely fast, even when the economy was falling. The recovery happened because we printed so much money to support the company's (not because the businesses were performing great). --> •The markets are not based on fundamentals anymore: 1 million+ people dead due to covid? No problem, the market goes up by 30%. Millions of people getting unemployed in the US and the rest of the world? Not a problem, the market goes up by another 30%. Businesses declaring bankruptcy? It didn't matter. we just kept on going up. Almost every business was experiencing massive losses while their stock price was skyrocketing. •The inflation of the USD is at its highest point since the 90s (also higher then in 2008) (5.4% at the moment). And normally the inflation grows slowly, but this year in particular the inflation has grown with a rapid rate. •evergrande is already starting to miss their payments. They have missed 3 payments so far. The rule is that you get a 30 day period to pay the bills of the missed coupons, when you don't pay back the bills within 30 days, a company defaults. When evergrande defaults, the everything bubble could definitely burst.A gigantic flash sell will happen when Evergrande defaults that can have great consequences for all economy's. But wait, its not only evergrande. its almost every Chinese property company that has massive amounts of debt. No one is talking about that. Debt *always* has to be payed back. •Evergrande still has to pay 305 billion USD. They haven't even paid of 1% of their debt. So who are the biggest bagholders of the $305B in bad bonds? --> There are several American and Canadian banks that Evergrande ows money to: First we've got the Royale Bank of Canada which has $46B in evergrande bonds with a market cap of $144B. If you were wondering why there was that weird after hours - the stock dropped 64% during AH in one day, but then they fixed the "glitch" and the price went back up. RBC looked worthless and this was just the real view of the bank's financial state when the bonds hit zero. •A lot of people think that China will help evergrande but most of the bagholders are in the US or Canada so why would China help them? •canadian tv reminding people that bank deposits are ensured. (The Royale Bank of Canada made this advertisement as well). •billionaire investors have a lot of cash on their hands. •Michael Burry and a ton of other famous investors predict that the markets will collapse. Warren Buffett has stopped buying new shares. •palantir warns people of a black swan event. •energy crisis in China and Europe. A lot of factory's in China are shutting down or slowing down because they have no power. •reverse repo has never been this high. $1.377,197 billion usd (that is more then a trillion!!!). The Fed's reverse repo facility allows big institutions - mostly big banks and money-market mutual funds - to buy securities from the Fed with an agreement to sell them back to the central bank for a specified price at a specific time. •fibonacci extension tells us that $4939.75 could be the end. •historic records amount of margin: When everyone is using a lot of margin in the markets, things can change very quickly for the worse, because their positions can get liquidated. If people with leveraged long-positions starts to get liquidated, more people start to get liquidated since the price has gone down even more. etc. etc. etc. (until the market has fully crashed). Not only that, retail investors are going to panic sell in such an event. the only thing that needs to happen for a trend reversal is a bad event. •Eliotte waves suggest that a big crash is going to happen. We are in wave 5 in the long term chart from 2008 until now. so the next wave will be a market correction. •October 29th could be really bad. Its the 28th at the time of writing this (the 29th in China) and evergrande still hasn't payed its coupons from 29 september. Which means that they could be defaulting very soon. they still owe 304 billion usd. *update* they defaulted 2 hours ago on November 10th 2021 (they payed the 118 million that had to pay on the 29th, 10 minutes before they were going to default). they sold 2 private jets. On march 23 they have to pay back 2.1B usd. If they were struggling with 118M, how are they going to pay 2.1B? which means that they can delay the payment to the 23th of april before defaulting. We can easily go down 35-50% to big support levels but I don't think these support levels are going to hold a crash like this.This crash could be a very big one. 80% or more is not even unrealistic at this point. We messed up so now its time to pay for our mistakes... Conclusion: the TA looks bad and so does everything going on in the world right now. If this ends up happening it will be a fantastic buying opportunity. The S&p500 could go 10% higher to the 5000s, but a crash is inevitable. If it doesn't happen this year, then it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Its a ticking time bomb. Its just a matter of time when all of this comes together and It *could* happen very, very soon. Do you really want to risk a 10-20% return when the market could fall 50% or more? You can cash out now and buy back 2x the amount of the shares after the crash. And get 2.5x the amount of shares that you could buy now.
SP:SPXShort
by Y_Duursma
8
Credit - The Second Wave - EvergrandeIdea for Credit: - Stocks had a bit of a reprieve as China's collapsing property firms were halted for 2 weeks, and China's markets had gone on holiday for Golden week. - Stock market had an unwinding of hedges last week, but are things really 'Back to Normal'? - The bond market does not think so, and seems to be presaging more drawdown to come. - EM High Yield has been in capitulation, while US Corporate bonds and HY are accelerating their declines. - High Yield Spreads are about to breakout. - This is a problem that has not simply gone away, but rather will only get worse. - Nikkei had even erased all losses of the year in 2 weeks, then lost them again in 2 weeks more, to continue its bear market: - Remains to be seen how far-reaching the effects will be on China's 5T property market. The drag on global property market is real: More to come on that later. The stock market has its best days in bear markets as volatility increases, and this is really telling of the situation. I think we are already in a global bear market and recession. 110 1911 222 GLHF - DPT
AMEX:LQDShort
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
Virtual vs Real EstateA picture is worth a thousand words. This is good news for the "Metaverse" and crypto as a whole, since it shows that traditional assets and crypto assets don't necessarily correlate. MANA is the "virtual real estate" coin that Decentraland uses, where as that line slowly sinking into nothingness is Evergrande. If we see a similar pattern emerge in other real estate markets in the world (which seems likely at this point), the boost to the "virtual estate" worlds may be something never before seen.
COINBASE:MANAUSDLong
by RyanTanaka
$BABA: It's time, load up the truck...I think $BABA likely bottoms around here, the 14 week down trend signal that predicted this decline reached its final week and price will gap down into long term support from the all time 25% speed line for the whole advance from the bottom to the top. Sentiment had reached critical levels for equities last week already, and there's a path out of this mess with Evergrande possibly under control and most investors liquidated out of this stock, reaching lows not seen since 2019. Valuation is interesting now, so, it seems like a good play to try and knife catch this one. I once tried with the $KWEB etf which had completed a similar down trend recently, which led to a rapid rebound rally but that rally was faded after I took profits, and prices retraced back near the bottom on the back $BABA's continued weakness. The time is likely now, to try and fade this largely hyped fall, after most people trying to catch the bottom gave up already. Let's roll! I risk 1 average true range down, below this support level here, I will then monitor daily charts for a bullish trend signal after basing, to accumulate more shares and trail my stop loss higher. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:BABALong
by IvanLabrie
14
Evergrande, Inflation, Supply Chains = Good For Crypto? I did a video version of the editor's pick idea (link below) with more details and a more holistic look at what's been going on in real-estate, politics, and crypto. What happens next is anyone's guess but underlying trends tend to show that the crypto market itself will probably be OK, if not bullish. Some notes from the vid below: - Inflation is here to stay in the US, China’s inflation is very low right now (below 1% with up and down trends, the US is 5.4% and steadily climbing) and is more likely to recover more smoothly in the long run if they allow Evergrande to default on their loans. - The United States was caught off guard by inflation warnings because they have outsourced most of their manufacturing overseas over the last few decades -- out of sight, out of mind. (They refused to consider increasing interest rates or lower gov spending until very recently.) - Crypto is an “inflation friendly” asset because its price is adjustable and is not beholden to supply chain issues. - China’s ban on Bitcoin and other assets are pretty typical of the politics there, but savvy Chinese investors often invest in foreign assets as a way to dodge taxation and political entities taking control of their assets. This includes real-estate, but also things like cryptocurrencies. - In September, the media latched onto the Evergrande controversy and dipping crypto prices by attempting to correlate the two. Data shows otherwise, however. - It will probably take 6-12 months (1 or 2 business cycles) before the effects of Evergrande are seen in the US real-estate markets, but it will most likely be negative for traditional assets. The question is, will this be good or bad for crypto?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by RyanTanaka
1
Crypto vs GME/AMC vs Evergrande in the Last 3 MonthsA 3 month chart of the returns as a side-by-side comparison. That red line slowly sinking into nothingness is Evergrande, the lines in the middle are GameStop, AMC, and a random ETF I found on the real-estate market here in the US. How the Evergrande crash will affect the US markets is yet to be seen (it'll probably take at least a business cycle or 2 before the effects of it show up here) but we do know that it will be negative, potentially recession-inducing. As you can see, as the real-estate market dips, crypto is actually doing better, not worse. People liquidating their assets in China may have lead to the runs that we see today -- and right now where the interest rates of banks are low, crypto is the only asset that makes any sense if you want any sort of reliable return. If this trend continues, we could see a jump in crypto prices like never seen before. Crypto is also what you call a "inflation friendly" asset because it's not beholden to supply chain issues like other assets are so it's more likely to adapt to economic conditions much faster -- at the very least, it will be affected differently. But the important thing to pay attention to for the #crypto folks is how this is talked about in public -- if you notice, about a month ago crypto and #blockchain markets have taken a slight hit -- but the media around then started publishing articles how Bitcoin and Ethereum was "tanking" along with the real-estate market, due to Evergrade scares. This is what's called "cherry picking" your data set, since the overall trends show that the two things obviously don't correlate. Don't get caught up in other people's problems, other people's fears, in other words. Misery loves company, after all. Crypto is in for some good times ahead, I'm pretty sure of it now.
Editors' picks
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by RyanTanaka
36
Evergrande vs Bitcoin, Round 2Latest update on the Evergrande fiasco. It's looking like this could be much bigger than even the alarmists have been speculating so far. tl;dr - the US media is very poor at covering foreign news, especially when it comes to money. Be wary of what you read out there. China is likely to let Evergrande defaut, which will stand in stark contrast to what we did over here. Expect this issue to get political, especially from the Democratic side since people like Pelosi have made their fortunes in real-estate as well. This could potentially be a very good thing for #crypto because it will shake people's confidence in traditional assets while also providing more liquidity. If they're going to sell or not purchase a home anymore, where is it going to go? Interest rates are pathetic right now and crypto is the only thing getting people decent returns as we speak. The Federal Reserve is maybe-sorta-kind-of-thinking about doing the right thing (which is to increase interest rates) but their response is likely going to be too little too late. I think we should probably assume that the correction is going to run its course and adapt accordingly. More to come with this stuff but it's one of the few things worth paying attention to in finance right now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by RyanTanaka