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BTCUSD EMA Ribbion; OBV EMAs & VStopBTCUSD has once again slipped the EMA ribbon on the 12h, as well as a trendline which can now act as resistance. It is very possible that price action will have a failed break out attempt and get rejected by the blue trendline once again as shown by the hammer Further that, the OBV EMAS have crossed all bearish, with the 100 above the 20, above the 10, above the OBV. The OBV has no support from any of the EMAS. In addition, the OBV EMAS are divergent to the previous high, signaling exhaustion from the bulls. This is how bad the OBV situation is with just some simple pattern recognition, on the arithmetic chart. Further that, the new system I am looking at is suggesting a move to the downside as well. on the 12H we should have been short on volatility stops for a while and the 9Seasons rainbow is screaming reversal with red (bear) yellow (resistance) and light green (weak bull). The 9Seasons preponderance is bearish. Volatility stops on the daily have flipped bearish and are well above the trendline that i expect to act as resistance. The 9Seasons rainbow on the daily chart at most timeframes is signalling either strong resistance (yellow) or weak bull (light green). Log chart target settings are either blue falling trendline or black rising trendline. Please review the lined ideas if you want to see similar concepts at play.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Quickpost on Gold (1w, 2w, 1D)Weekly Weekly volume is falling the OBV with EMAS shows that the OBV has hidden bearish divergence between peak to peak as shown by the blue arrows the OBV is very tight against the 10 and 20 EMA. This suggest the next move would be the OBV to bearishly cross the 10 and proceed down to the 100EMAm if not below. The MACD is showing a technical double top and MACD histogram is showing bearish divergence. Price action ran up against the bollingerbands and is now chopping sideways with weakening technical, not strengthening. The black squares show how I think the price action will most closely resemble on the way down. Just to simplify things because I can't yet get a full look at the month here is the two week chart and the OBV 10 and 20 look to be crossing bearishly and the topping behavior on the candles seems clearer. Going the other way timewise to the daily with the 9Season rainbow and volatility stops the bias is to the downside. Please reivew the linked post for more details. These are some old posts that target set where we are rightnow.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by This_Guhy
2
XBTUSD Crypto Trading Youtube is failing USI follow some choice crypto trading youtube videos and I feel deeply that many of them are failing us. Fundamental concept for price action: when resistance and support flip be prepared for a powerful move. A trend reversal. One prefered trader covered this concept this week, but instead of looking at a multi-year trend they are looking at a month long trendline. Another generally good trader called this move a "beautiful correction" and ignored the fact that tension with China is on the rise, civil unrest in the US is on the rise during election season, and COVID19 numbers are going up. The same thing that tanked the SPX, and XBTUSD, and caused unemployment to skyrocket is still a exogenous shock to bitcoin. Many others pretended that they had covered this reversal as their majority opinion as opposed to their casual cover their ass throw away statement. Crytpo is a peacetime inflationary asset, not one you buy during turmoil and potential real world depression/contraction. We don't have beautiful corrections during these times The OBV is bearish divergent. The MACD is decreasing and the MACD histogram is showing hidden bearish divergence. Price action is stalling at the Upper Value Area. All this at a time when previous support is now resistance and we have turmoil in the real world. How many different bearish indicators do we need? Here is BLX, the chart with the longest history on bitcoin, with a pair of simple volatility stops on the monthly time frame. Now believe you me, when I see the Vstops on BLX flip to bullish I am going to be changing my tune. Until then, my bias is short.
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
6
Silver Volume, Volatility Stops, and 9Season Rainbow.The silver volume action is clearly beginning to tighten since last July and while I would not recommend doing strict TA on the OBV with EMAS its clear that eventually this triangle with have to break one way or the other. the OBV going sideways is a theoretical option but with the price action struggling against the 400W simple moving average and the divergences I have gone over until I am sick of them, this formation needs to break one way or the other. My assumption is this will break to the downside and price action will consolidate for a while at the 1000W SMA as it did before on multiple occasions them we will proceed down to the 1,500. The linked post will show the macro and micro timeframes and situation leading to this move. I have run into the repeated issue where my charting has gotten better than my stop management and take profits and so while I have had some really great entries I have left lots of money on the table by not letting my winners run. Further that, timing is also an issue, especialy with leveraged ETFS as the underlying asset can chop sideways but the derivitive chops in a downward direction. You cannot just accumulate a leveraged short ETF. To help myself with that I have demoted myself to using some dummy indicators which require no more effort than just picking a time frame and punching the numbers into my stop loss. The trade is on DSLV. The 9 seasons rainbow uses some sorta analysis to set a color based on different time frames. blue shows that a floor is being set (if you see fuscia it meas the floor became a trap floor, oops). The light read shows a weak bear market. lower time frames being blue or light read mean I should look for reversal. I am in my trade. I have been looking at getting my entry on near 24.7 assets like futures or crypto on the 12h chart, but looking for my exit on the 1D chart. I like me some swing trades. If DSLV returns to its resistance trend line I should be able to pull a 4.5x out of this trade here shortly. Fingers crossed. I will flip from a trading point of view to an investor when I see silver against this decade long trend line with monthly VStops beneith it. I'll be accumulating then, that is for sure.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by This_Guhy
5
Paper Silver at 400W MA Resistance still facing years of declineI have been charting the bearish case for silver for about six months and this chart has popped up in one form or another several times. It is still obvious that price action is being compressed between the 200W and 400W SMAs. When price action slipped the 200W last there was basically a flash crash to 1500W. What did this legendary rally get us on the daily chart? Our third lower high in almost 10 months. Price may still come up and test the trendline in the chart below, but it looks pretty bearish right now. I continue to find studying the OBV with EMAs interesting. The OBV seems to broadly follow many of the fundamentals in charting with support turning to resistance and being rejected and supported by longer term EMAs. It looks like price action will work its way deeper into the wedge and the OBV will go deeper into the triangle for the next couple of years. The good news is, after silver struggles through this depression/Recession I basically see it in a massive acceding triangle. We are going to have a banger of a decade to fifteen years if I see this right.
COMEX:SI1!Short
by This_Guhy
6
Bitcoin: You only have to listen.I know the pain of losing a grip of cash through inexperience at trading and emotional regulation. We are at one of those moments were lots of money are going to be made and lost and you need to listen. I am not qualified to give financial advice, and I am not a Certified Market Technician. But I have worked a lot to master the basics and it comes down to a few basic principles. This isn't advise Price Action. This includes all the basic charting formations. It also includes when support and resistance flip, either at sloped trend lines or horizontal levels. It also includes all the retests that can be so frustrating when you are seeking continuation or reversal. Previous price action suggest future price action. The idea of fib extensions, fib retracements, bollinger bands, ichimoku clouds, average true range, all play into this concept of using previous price action to predict future price action. Volume Action. Volume is the most important indicator, bar none. It confirmed break outs, areas of support, and chart patterns. You can use volume by time, which is standard, or volume profile. Indicators/Oscillators signals . Particularity in this case, Indicator Divergence. This is last for a reason. As by brother told me after I got blown the f/o on a trade "the indicators were divergent before they weren't." Lets simplify this chart, which can be somewhat noisy. First the Resistance The fuschia lines outline a symmetrical triangle and the price action is at its 4th major test of this level. Past action suggesting future action is a rejection. The rising green trend line is a massively important multi-year trend line. It is painfully obvious to me know how important it is, and if I knew in 2018 what I knew now I probably wouldn't be wage-slaving today. This green line was support from 2016 to the latter end of 2019. Now in 2020 it is asserting itself as resistance. Just so happens that the green and fuschia arrows form a crux. The volume profile Value area can act as resistance and support and price action has a tendency to go from one value area to the other, and to be drawn into the midline, or the price level where the most price action (buying and selling) has occurred. I like to place the visible range of the chart at trend reversals/trend beginnings to get an idea where the volume is on that specific trend. The volume upper value area has clearly been acting as resistance since June 2019 and I don't forecast that changing in any meaningful way. Now we have covered resistance again, onto indicators The Volume Profile suggest places that price action will cut right through (at the low volume nodes) and stall or bounce (high volume nodes). If price action goes "edge to edge" on the value area we are out of the triangle, and the bottom fuschia trendline is now in play to act as resistance. If we proceed to the Point of Control this suggest that the price action is in descending triangle, and that will be pretty brutal. The On Balance Volume with EMAs works really well when you use some divergences and basic charting. The fuschia trendline continues to show classic breaish divergence and I beleive that will create a downtrend. Conclusion Based on this system, which I have attempted to craft by mastering the basics, there is very limited chance for an upside move for swing traders and investors in bitcoin. There is an extraordinary case for price action being at resistance and facing a retrace. Lots of signs suggest sub 3,900. This isn't the time to get reckless. I follow several youtubers, and most of them are missing these fundamentals. They can mention the gaussian channel all they want, or some other fancy indicator, but the basics can get you a long way. In generally I consider Bitcoin to be a liquidity sponge, and I generally think that bitcoin will go up greatly against the dollar under these QE eternal conditions, but when things get scary people in brokerages flee to cash, and people on mainstreet flee to cash and precious metals. When the brokerage selling is done crypto and precious metals will have their day. But that day isn't going to happen this year. Triangles often break down into falling wedges and I see either of the triangles detailed in this post doing the same
KRAKEN:BTCUSDShort
by This_Guhy
1
Quickpost: SPY at the Weekly Bollinger BaselineThe Bollingerband traditionally has a lookback of 20 periods, and that coincides with a common moving average length of 20 (sometimes 21). SPY price action has gapped up and stopped right at that baseline, or the 20W SMA. This is very much a do or die circumstance for the market. If the baseline asserts itself as resistance we can expect a very painful recession. If somehow the baseline is confirmed as support we have the much promiced V shape recovery Below the prices action we have the OBV & EMAS. The OBV has been consolidating below the 100W, which isn't a good sign for the bulls, and the 20W is looking like it will cross the 100W bearishly. This is an extra-ordinarily bearish set of circumstances to play out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by This_Guhy
SPX: The EMA ribbon has furled bearishI see the moving average ribbons like a flag, they fly open and boldly either bearish or bullish when are full stacked one way or the other, or when the trend is at risk of changing they furl up and get twisted up. The weekly Madrid Moving Average Ribbon has begun to furl bearish but has not completed the bearish ordering of price action below the ribbon and the time frames ranked from fastest to slowest. I continue to look for patterns when support has flipped to resistance and I think we have a workable patter with some variations here and there. Price Action Sells off at the The downward arrow but does not break through the ribbon Forms a Relative High falls through the ribbon setting a low at the upward arrow The upward and downward arrows set a multy-year trendline Rallys to the hammer Sets a lower low From there the trend line acts differently for each scenario. The main thing being these moves appear to be taking longer from the first sell off to the dump, which leads me to suspect that government forces can get the economy limping along further with monetary and financial interventions. Orange looks like a variation of a Bump and Run Bottom but drawn in reverse, with the lead in line going from support to resistance rather than resistance to support. The blue trendline is a hot mess drawn from the bodies but it is a lot more useful if drawn from the wicks. The purple trendline hasn't been revisited and I have this paranoid premonition that it may. Purple also had the most bullish outcome, so I am not sure we will see a repeat considering that under the black scenario we are currently getting rejected by the ribbon after clearly falling out the bottom. All this leads me to believe that we will be rejected near the question mark. I am not going to show it here, but take the time to put this on the 1M or 3M timeframe. If you don't have them just adjust the bollinger band look back length and you will see that the price action can and does fall out the 2nd and even 3rd st. dev bollinger band,
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
Quickpost: Guys, Gold is in a DEcending triangle.I have seen a couple of posts showing the current formation drawn as a symmetrical triangle, and that simply isn't the case. This is a descending triangle and the target gets the price action below the long term black trendline. The monthly chart shows the situation quite clearly, and the situation is bearish. The S&P is staged to dump, paper precious metals are going to dump into the grave with everything else as every bull in the trap gets their margin call.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by This_Guhy
12
Bubbles: Comparing BTC to Gold, Again. Introduction BTCUSD is being tracked on the BLX chart as it has the longest history and likewise Gold is on the Futures ticker likewise for the history and both are on the weekly time frame. Due to the speed of crypto the cart covers less time overall. The main chart is BLX and the chart below is gold centered on 2008 to 2016. Key Concepts Fundamental charting over all other indicators Support and resistance flipping (either trendlines or horizontal levels) After you have your chart patterns, look at volume for confirmation on all patterns. After Volume, any other indicator you like. Narrative I have learned a lot since I have been trading and charting over the last 3 years to cobble together a system that makes me money consistently and one that I can manage emotionally. And because we live in an age of bubbles I have persevered over bubble charts I have looked to make money off of the popping. I still get out too early on the uptrend, which is fine so long as I don't go short too soon. The charts should have a remarkable similarity. The main difference is we could add some trendlines to the down leg of Gold after the hammer and show how it channeled down and wedged and recovered, but that distracts a bit from the big picture. The big picture twice on each chart the grey filled ovals show where the price action establish and confirmed a long term black trend line. The black outline oval shows where the black trendline is confirmed as resistance The blue descending triangle shows price action is setting a lower high. The Fib extension shows just how low the price action can go based on Gold. it does not mean 100% that we will almost touch the 2.414 fib extension and the high wick off to the left on Bitcoin suggest we will not go that low, so we will be just about to touch the 2.0 fib extension on bitcoin. Finally we have the OBV EMA situation (shown below). The purple arrows show hidden bearish divergence (lower high on price, higher high on the indicator). So we are at resistance at both the triangle and this rising trendline and the volume is divergent. We might be trading at this resistance for a couple of weeks before the downtrend resumes. It is going to take a while for the optimism to fade. Closing thoughts The markets are all interconnected through traders and investors. And when they need liquidity they are going to take it from where ever they can. The incoming Second Great Depression is going to lead to selling off whatever assets people can in order to pay their bills and support their families, and save their businesses. This means selling of things that you may think are immune. I still imagine the locust swarm leading to food shortages around the world and people dumping silver and gold for grain. In the background of all of this is Elliot wave theory, meaning that the uptrend on bitcoin when this is over will be mind boggling. It is also why I think we will stay above 2.0 fib extension on the downtrend. I expect we will see some type of wedge formation and BARR bottom developing over the next couple of years so the price action is currently creating the lead in trend line. I am just a few years away from never having to work again, God willing. Please see the linked post for some of my most accurate calls, some more recent than others.
BNC:BLXShort
by This_Guhy
6
How the TSLA situation probably went down>be Elon >Genius >Knows basic TA >Sees support is now resistance >see Divergence on the MACD Histogram >Bearish cross of the signal and MACD finta happen >Price action bouncing against the top of the bollinger band >knows how bad the market is >wants attention >Comes on out and says his company is over-valued >TSLA dumps >SPX Dumps >Fools are saying that Elon was a domino that erased billions if not trillions off global evlauations >gets all the attention he craves. As for target setting 150-160 seems like a technical place for this to stop. I told others about TSLA but didn't to a post on it specifically, instead focusing on SPX as it is the broadest measure of the interactions between the stock market and main street. My linked post will show me calling tops and bottoms on that.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by This_Guhy
Quickpost: SPX Looking for a Head and ShouldersI see a potential head and shoulders created by the interaction of two trend lines. the blue trend line has flipped from resistance to support repeatedly and so has the black trendline. There is plenty of divergences to review on whatever time frame you like but do like the 12h. We can see the signal line waveing gently as it established a lower high while the price action goes higher. Given the macro conditions we could go up for the week and then dump next week. Below is the dump of bitcoin from November 2018. Same cross of support and resistance setting up a head and shoulders. I expect we will see something resembling the purple circle if and when the head and shoulders I think is developing actually develops. This is a time people could go in big with very tight stops and get some massive risk reward ratio. The original pattern would be negated if we set a high higher or roughly equal to the head. It would be nice to see a right shoulder that is weaker than the left. the red dashed line, if mounded as support on a high timeframe would also serious put the trade at risk, even if we set a lower high.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
Comparing bear flags on the S&P 500.The left chart has our current set of circumstances on the 12H settings and the right has the previous bear flag on the 4H settings. As this move matures we will have to look at higher and higher time frames to determine which one is controlling. The rising red arrow shows on both MACD histograms shows classic bearish divergence between the indicator and price action. The purple arrows shows hidden bearish divergence about to rip this uptrend apart. The 4h chart had a clean cross of the MACD and signal line while the 12h chart shows a sloppier move. The blue fractal is a lot harder to see scrunched off to the left but an honest look at the MACD required such. The trend lines should be very similar. The resistance held for many bars and then the price action pulls away at the bollinger band. From there previous support turns to resistance and we get a rough double top formation. A second test of the bollinger band at this new resistance and the uptrend is over. And finally the volume situation is similar. These chars are the daily for the left chart and hourly for the right. The formations have falling volume generally and the OBV and OBV 10 and 20 are clearly under the 100 OBV EMA. A very bearish situation on price action and volume action. Please see the linked post for some target setting and broader context.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
Eurodollar and the SPX Short Quick Post VII haven't been the best at naming my SPX/Eurodollar posts, but it seems that this is my sixth post on the matter over the last yearish. So far my most accurate calls on a macro level have been using the movements in the eurodollar to predict what will happen with the S&P and therefor the broader market. I am going to start on the S& 500 and it is just going to be charting, the linked posts will show some more TA and indicators. The main chart shows a rising wedge on what looks to be a flagpole and a pennant with targets shown for full performance on both the wedge and flag pole. Price action slipped the wedge and support flipped to resistance if you do simple candlestick analysis on the main chart. SPXUSD, the almost 24/5 CFD on the S&P, has a horrendus amount of bearish divergence on the MACD, MACD histogram, and RSI. The hammers show what I expect to repeat rather soon. Likewise, the Eurodollar post shows the targets for a flagpole and pennant. this has the eurodollar going above 100, which means negative interestrates in what is in effect the true researve currency of the world, because it is the unregulated dollar outside of the US. Japan and China are extra-ordinarily exposed to the eurodollar so this will get interesting. Expect a lot of extra-ordinarily bad news out of those countries in the upcoming year. And that is relative to other countries going through the second great depression. Generally I would need a lot more confirmation of breakout on the eurodollar chart, but the macro-view is strong, and the chart fundamentals are strong that the eurodollar will at least reach the target on the symmetrical triangle. Conclusion I am bearish, very bearish. Not financial advice, as I am just a guy making and losing money learning how to chart and trade. I have been swing trading SPXU and SPXL to great effect but I cannot recommend it for most people unless you want to start grinding the fillings out of your teeth. I have already passed that phase, it wasn't a happy time.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
1
SPX and DJI TD Sequential at 9 on the Yearly ChartI am by no means a TD Sequential guy but I know the basics. The indicator does the counting for and you are looking for continuation. The indicator counts up in green if the candle is higher than the 4th candle behind it. The dude that made created the default and concluded that most moves exhaust at count 9. Both of the US indices with major histories have, so far, printed a 9 on the current yearly candle. So two things will happen over the next year: We keep the nine and the move continues or we dip so low that we go past the high of point of the most recent 5 and we start painting 1-2-3 in red for the correction. I have circuled the green 9s on the chart and you can see that not all of them portend a turn into a red 1 Here is a great video on standard usage of the sequential. The linked post are some of my biggest picture views on the upcoming everything bubble. www.youtube.com
SP:SPX
by This_Guhy
3
Paper Gold still poised to spillThis idea still focuses on the basics of price action and volume action. It is a bit repetitive because I have done similar posts so consider this an update to those posts. The blue and red trend lines show where the trend line went from support to resistance, which is bearish price action The black trendlines show divergence on the price action to OBV and OBV EMAs which is bearish volume action. The MFIis basically a hybrid RSI with volume action on the Money Flow Index with the 15 period look with bearish divergence The 15 MFI just crossed below the 50 which is a bearish if sustained. I currently think this ends when the 15 MFI goes below 30, maybe all the way below 20. If we zoom into this current peak we see strong wicking action at the intersection of the falling black trendline and rising red trendline. That is pretty bearish in my book. The OBV slipped the 10 EMA and almost tested the 20 EMA as support. I expect we will shortly see a impulsive move down and the OBV will approach the 100 EMA. I further predict that the orange trendline price action is testing as support is going to be tested as resistance in dramatic fashion. There is still the potential for a head and shoulders in there. The 12h volume situation has falling volume in an acceding triangle. Price action is divergent on the MACD Histogram, which suggest that a sustained MACD-Signal cross will occur. RSI is divergent and it set highs outside the Bollinger band. I expect we will be wicking out of the 12h lower limit of the bollinger band. again here shortly.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by This_Guhy
5
Potential Micro Bump and Run on SPXUSDNo doubt 10% is a great performance on the day but given the fear and uncertainty we can expect some giveback. I am a mega bear in the long run but right now there is a chance for a Bump and run reversal bottom on a very small timeframe. If you have the risk tolerance and a good strategy you could play this formation. If you are looking to add to your short but you don't want to do it recklessly then you would look to short at the performance of this BARR. So this post is good both for shorter looking for an entry or high adrenaline intra-day or swing traders. The BARR has a lead in structure in blue, which sets up the trend line we would need for the BARR. The bump is the move down, which creates the Bump Hight, which we use for target setting. The bump sets up the throwback to the Lead In Trend Trend Line and when that trend line is confirmed as support, we get the run. Full target setting can be found here:http://thepatternsite.com/barrb.html A quick look at targets are shown on the chart. The blue line on the chart is the 200w SMA and the purple is the 50W SMA formatted to fit on the hourly chart. I think we have a high chance of getting to or just above the 50W to before price action gets smacked down but right now that is me hoping for over-performance that may not occur. I am excited for a chance to get to play this 10% pump with all the tools at my disposal. If you are long or short this should be a helpful post. If there is no throw back there is no confirmation. If the lead in trend line does not act as support then there is no confirmation. Confirmation requires patience and maturity. I recently got whacked pretty hard on one of my trades not waiting for confirmation and even though I was up big for the day, week, and month that crap trade ruined the emotional effect of my trade because I knew I could have done better. Wait for confirmation if you looking for this BARR. Not financial advice, of course. But the best pattern can get busted.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by This_Guhy
1
Gold Echo Bubble Resembles Bitcoins. Pattern Recognition FTW.Notes before starting: both charts are on the arithmetic scale, not the log scale. Gold is on the monthly time frame and bitcoin, using the BLX ticker, is on the weekly. Once again I am persevering over the charts looking for patterns that may repeat to by benefit and this is a pattern that dumbfounded me when I saw it on Bitcoin. I was amazing that calling the top was just as easy as what I had seen on the bottom chart with BLX. Support as shown by the magenta trendline became resistance in dramatic fashion. I brought up the gold chart with today morning cup of coffee and that pattern recognition kicked in. Gold is in a echo bubble just as bitcoin was. I had been looking for the top of gold and was off when I was looking for divergences about $75-100 dollars go. And don't get me wrong, divergences are a great thing, but for me I am best when I do the charting first, and indicators second. to put a fine point on it: Magenta trendline acts as support till a parabolic move Long term give back ends up with a reversal pattern. The Bump and Run for bitcoin, and the Ascending Triangle for Gold Price Action hits the magenta trendline as resistance Black trendline goes from the peak of the parabolic move to where price action and the magenta trendline interact (I adjusted the BLX line based off more data. Likely the gold black trend line will need some fine tuning as well. If this pattern recognition is correct Gold should move to support at $1,480 and then after perhaps a bounce and consolidation to the acceding triangle support at $1,370. We may see one final monthly candle for April, hopefully one predicting reversal, and then we are off to the races. Now this is primarily a gold post but there is the chance that some of the money divested in gold will land in the other fiat alternative, crypto or bitcoin specifically. Bitcoin, so far, seems to be setting a higher low from the one established at 7000 in late 2019. If that interest you my linked post may be interesting. Now onto the second most important thing in my arsenal after charting price action: Volume Action. the chart below shows a similar volume situation for bitcoin's echo bubbles regection at $14,00 and the current potential echo bubble rejection in gold: Hidden bearish divergent volume to price action. This is a hard post to read in a lot of ways. Gold is seen as the store of value and experienced precious metals investors know that gold and silver take hits when the stock market pulls back as people need to cover their shorts. But as my Great Depression Scenario post shows, if this is like the great depression precious metals are not just pulling back, they are falling out of the bottom of the trap door. Those implications are not good. Bitcoin? Flip a coin if this benefits from another round of Quantitative Easing like it has in the last several rounds. My bias is price action will appreciate as people turn fake Fed dollars into fake internet dollars but if $7,700 BTCUSD does't hold as support I am not holding bitcoin after that. The everything bubble clearly seems to involve gold.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by This_Guhy
1
The Second Great Depression Scenario for SPX, XAG and XAU"Too Terrible to Contemplate" would be the byline of this post if I wasn't struck by the fascination of contemplating if this was a Second Great Depression where would by target be? Either for my short position or when would I finally go long again? Data on the SPX was pretty sparce in the olden days as there was a lot of math and charting to be done by hand. To help make that visible I have the 1 EMA on the chart. It does not provide OHLC candles but it is better than nothing. You can break this down into multiple stages but I am going to keep this simple. Blue phase First level of long term consolidation in the uptrend. Once this is complete price action squirted up and it creates a point of contact on the trend line. Grey Phase Second level of consolidation and a bounce at the trendline. There was a series of lower lows that I see as creating a red trend line that was ultimately the target of the panic selling of the Great Depression. In Prior to the GD the price acton tested the resistance of the blue phase and confirmed it as support three times before ending in a parabolic move to the upside. A set up to the Second Great Depression does not have price action testing previous resistance as support and it also does not terminate in a parabolic move. There are a series of lower lows that create another red trend line that could be a target for panic selling in the Second Great Depression. Purple Phase Bulls get an absolute fonging. Like Jesus cleansing the temple mount of merchants fonging. In the Great Depression the black trend line did temporary act as support as price action stalled but eventually the black line failed and price action dipped over 40%. The red trendline comes into play and the S&P surges when it finds it as support ... to a lower high and dump once more. It is not until price action find support on the 600 month EMA that price action has a foundation to start setting relatively higher highs. Senario Casting Somehow despite the yield curve inversion, repo market drama, disease and quarantine, and over-indebtedness of the world price action finds support on the black trend line & 400 month EMA and continues upward on is merry way. Perhaps even parabolically! (I consider that the least likely scenario). This scenario also includes the S&P becoming range bound and somehow moving sideways for 5 years before hitting the black trend line and going up again. Price action replays the Second Great Depression like it does the first. The black trend line is broken and it isn't until the red trendline comes into play that it makes sense to go long in equities and Wall Street. There may be plenty of main street opportunities and all that, but Wall Street still has its head where the sun don't shine. (at this point I think this is my highest probability scenario) Somehow price action finds support somewhere between the black and red trendline. Perhaps on the 1000 EMA or SMA (not shown). It is easy to imagine all of the tradingview posts, all the twits, youtubers and talking heads on TV talking about the 1000M SMA/EMA and the support to be found thereon. This does not sound unlike or unreasonable especially if price action is near $1,000 and the 1000M MA. Silver and Gold Now for the silverrbos and the goldchads. Many experienced traders are expecting some selling of paper gold and silver as traders get margin called on their equities positions and have to sell what they can (not what they want) while they hold on their way to liquidation. And these experienced traders are happy to hold through the dip and accumulate more physical precious metals at better prices. But at a certain point people are going to have to sell their physical precious metals if this gets really bad. The paper losses are one thing, that can be managed. But what happens when a lot of the older generation dies, unfortunately from corona-virus or natural causes, and their inheritors dump the precious metals because they don't appreciate them, or because the selling of paper gold and silver is driving down the spot price? The price of gold was down from 1929 to 1931 and flat from 1929 to 1932 Year 1929 $20.63 1930 $20.65 1931 $17.06 1932 $20.69 >https://www.thebalance.com/gold-price-history-3305646 Silver likewise was kicked in the balls and went from near $8 to sub $5. >https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart Closing Remarks I do this for free. I am not a financial adviser or a Certified Market Technician. This tv Idea is grand in scope and if you like it just give it a like and if you reference it cite me. If I am right there is a lot of money to be made to the downside so long as you don't FOMO into a short squeeze and a lot of money to be lost if you hold. If I am wrong then meh, this wasn't financial advise anyway. As i said, I do this for free without any credentials. Please see some of the linked post for a wider macro view before you make your conclusions.
SP:SPXShort
by This_Guhy
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