Tesla (TSLA) AnalysisCompany Overview: Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA continues to lead the electric vehicle (EV) market, and its ambitious leap into humanoid robotics with the Optimus robot could open up massive new revenue streams. CEO Elon Musk projects this venture could unlock a $200 trillion opportunity, particularly in household and manufacturing applications.
Key Catalysts:
Optimus Robot: Visionary investors like Cathie Wood of ARK Invest estimate a $12 trillion market for humanoid robotics, where Tesla aims to be at the forefront, revolutionizing industries.
Full Self-Driving (FSD): Tesla's advanced FSD technology could be licensed to other automakers, creating new revenue channels. Musk’s long-term goal of launching an autonomous ride-hailing business or robotaxi fleet offers additional upside potential, which could reshape the automotive and transportation landscape.
Expanding Market Potential: Beyond EVs, Tesla's expansion into AI-driven robotics and autonomous vehicles places it at the intersection of multiple high-growth markets.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on Tesla above $193.00-$195.00, signaling strong confidence in its continued leadership in both the EV and emerging robotics sectors. Upside Potential: Our target for TSLA is $360.00-$370.00, driven by the potential commercialization of humanoid robots and further advancements in autonomous driving technology.
⚡️ TSLA—Driving the Future with Innovation in EVs, AI, and Robotics. #EVs #AI #AutonomousDriving
EVS
Volkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotiVolkswagen, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes (automobile): The automotive industry is undergoing a transition to electric vehicles. These companies hold strong positions, but they need to successfully navigate this transformation against competitors like Tesla and Polestar (lol).
Rewards
Trading at 79.2% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 6.14% per year
Earnings grew by 24.2% over the past year
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Risk Analysis
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Dividend of 9.77% is not well covered by free cash flows
Copper Constructive but Struggles for BreakthroughFollowing a sharp pullback from May’s record peak, Copper made a strong start to the third quarter, returning above the EMA200 (black line) and regaining the initiative. It tries to take out the 38.2% Fibonacci of that decline that will allow it to push towards 5.000-5.041 handle and eventually challenge the all-time highs (5.200). The fundamentals remain favorable, as key miners have lowered their activity, while the AI boom and the clean energy transition drive demand for the non-ferrous metal.
On the other hand, there are risks to the upbeat supply-demand outlook, like China’s bympy recovery and distressed property sector, along with a slowdown in EV adoption and other factors. Furthermore, Copper struggles to break above the pivotal 38.2% Fibonacci and failure would create scope for lower lows (4.323) but the downside appears well protected and sustained weakness past it looks hard, technically and fundamentally.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NIO - Why Are You Long On Another Shanghai Disaster?So NIO makes electric cars and is a company from Mainland China, which means that by default it's a Chinese Communist Party state-run enterprise because of the realities of Chinese law and living under the CCP's jurisdiction.
Earnings are tomorrow morning and IV on options are juiced to 150% at the money expiring September 1 and 75% expiring January '24.
It might be pretty easy for this company to print a beat considering estimates are only $1.2~ billion compared to the $1.7, $2.5, $1.8, and $1.5 billion in the prior segments.
But as we've seen with earnings on stuff like AMD
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed
Target
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?
Snowflake
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?
and Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
That a short lived earnings-linked climax has been the optimal moment to enter short and ride the move towards the bottoms.
The problem with companies rooted in Shanghai is that Shanghai is the toad's den, the headquarters of the faction of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, and is solely responsible for the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting campaign against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners.
But even if the company were rooted in Shenzhen, Beijing, or Guangzhou, the problem would be that any company that relies on Mainland Chinese demand to fuel sales, including companies as big as Apple, are in big trouble.
The reason is simple. If you look at Our World In Data and examine how many people died from Coronavirus Disease 2019, the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping claims that 121,563 people have died since the pandemic began.
The United States with less than 1/4th the population has reported over 1.2 million deaths by comparison.
And on top of that, everyone knows how the CCP covered up and lied to the world about the 2003 SARS pandemic.
So let's say for a minute, considering China's population of 1.4 billion compared to America's 355 million people, and that China is the epicentre of the pandemic, that as few as 10 million people actually died.
Now, consider the number of people counting as eligible buyers who have died in China is even higher than this number because of the huge amount of flooding, natural, and manmade disasters that have occurred over the same period of time.
Let's be generous and say that only 15 million people have died.
How does that impact the sales of companies like NIO, Tesla, Apple, and everyone else who has become reliant on the Chinese market?
Perhaps it isn't enough to cause a 2008-style bubble deflation yet, but we're certainly seeing the impact on the balance sheets, aren't we?
And yet people are telling you to get long on NIO.
Technically speaking, the monthly bars show us that since the October dump, every candle, no matter how big the retrace has been, has simply respected the gap created by the dump.
And this is significant because that dump was an astonishing 63 percent in two months.
And at today's prices of $11 this company is still claimed to be worth $15 billion, even while Evergrande has become a penny stock, the Yuan is in huge trouble, and the entire Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse.
Something I have enlightened to in recent times is that reversal patterns are not reversal patterns unless the market has traded to its true bottom.
This was the problem everyone who was trying to long Tesla, Meta, and Amazon all the way down kept running into.
If you buy too early then you have to sit there in drawdown waiting for 25% miracle candles just to break even for a single day.
And so you always have to ask yourself if the market has traded to its true bottom before you decide to donate your retirement funds to the Party longing a retrace.
On the weekly, the breakout to $16 would be bullish, if $7.5 were the bottom
But the problem is that the most meaningful gap on weekly bars was never retraced to after it broke up and it ran away towards $60, and that gap starts at $5.59, almost 50% away from where we traded today.
So is NIO a long? Social media wants you to get long because every dumpster pattern that looks like a disaster is a long, for some reason.
But NIO is not likely to be a long, no matter how nice of a car and how much of a Tesla killer they may arguably make.
But with a $1.2 billion earnings estimate, that's pretty beatable, and so we may see a real retrace tomorrow, however short lived, that could see smart call buyers who exit early or immediately bagging a nice profit.
For everyone else, perhaps it really is worth buying puts at $14 expiring in March of 2024 and closing them off at $5.5
Because NIO is a Shanghai dumpster fire, this thing can go down and down and down and down in accordance with the Hang Seng Tech even if the Nasdaq and the SPX rallies in Q4.
In the meantime, perhaps September will be a bit of an early autumn for the markets, and perhaps for the world-at-large.
Be careful. Shanghai is the "Babylon" spoke of in The Book of Revelations.
Babylon is a city, not a person.
And everyone who put roots there is dirty, perhaps including Tesla and Elon Musk, the man who wants to turn Twitter into the CCP's social credit keystones Wechat/TikTok.
Lucid Motors - As For Me, I Like The StockThe first thing I want to remind you of is that you should buy stocks when they're low, down, and red. Stop buying things when they're green and up bigly because you "see confirmation."
If you can't let go of this attachment to only believing in what you can see and not believing until you're shown, then the Bible story of Doubting Thomas is really something to give a read.
So about Lucid Motors: As for me, I like the stock.
Here's some reality:
1. Electric cars are a real thing now
2. Tesla needs competition
3. Luxury electric cars from BMW et. al. kind of suck and there's no real demand for them
4. Lucid has cars on the road and even The Wall Street Journal gave them a thinly veiled advertorial after the Saudis infused some blood
Also, although Lucid will soon be expanding into the China market, as of now there is no manufacturing in Mainland China.
This gives Lucid significant benefits in the not-being-subject-to geopolitical risk like Tesla with its Shanghai Gigafactory located in Babylon is.
Because one day in our lifetimes, I believe Xi Jinping will throw away the Chinese Communist Party like Gorbachev did in the 90s and everything will change because the persecution against Falun Gong launched by former Chairman Jiang Zemin (it's dead now) will be totally exposed and much of the world will be implicated.
This will make life very hard for everyone who's been soliciting Shanghai (Babylon).
Moreover, right now, Lucid makes cars in Arizona and in Saudi Arabia. With the 2024 Presidential Election looming, a Donald Trump win would be huge for any "Made In America" company.
I'm not a huge fan of Trump, personally, but I think you should throw political bias away when it comes to analyzing the markets and figuring out how to invest your money/trade.
The financials for Lucid appear to indicate that spending and R&D is up. This is actually a good thing, because it's very, very hard and takes many, many years for a car manufacturer to be able to get roots down in society and become a household name.
It's going to be a "spend money to make money" kind of thing for Lucid.
Anyways, the raid on the all time lows after the Saudi announcement is a good thing.
You need to look at things backwards. Down is good if you want to buy. Up is good if you want to sell.
The last week's action is definitely bullish and you should be thinking of how to get long on a pullback.
The problem is, where can Lucid go?
At $7 it's already worth $14 billion mcap.
And unfortunately for everyone who WaNtS tO SeE a MoASsSsSSss the reality of getting one is you had a few minutes to sell the top and now the chart is a mess.
On the monthly and weekly
We can see that a healthy company would return to the $30 range.
But with that stupid MOASS candle blocking the way you really may not get anything better than $10.
I think the bear case if this is to go to $0 like MULN or some other dumpster fire coin is $15
All and all, if you go long here, can diamond hand a bit, and sell at $10 or $15, what exactly are you sad about?
Put the FUD aside and all the yammering about "the fundamentals" and ask yourself if you really want to sit on the sidelines here and watch this thing do what IONQ has done until you "see confirmation" like Doubting Thomas saw his Master's spear wound after Lord Yahweh's Resurrection.
Ultimately, I think we're going to see a pullback into the opening of July, but we need to see July rip over $8.50 for this to really be a long.
But if you want for it to do that you might wake up to find $11 and it's already too late for regrets.
Don't leave yourself with regrets.
Use faith.
Workhorse is at a Support Between the 0.786 and 0.886 RetracesWorkhorse looks like it could be setting up for a Spring off of an Ice Line that aligns with the 0.786–0.886 Fibonacci Retraces. It also seems to be somewhat Bullishly Diverging on the MACD though not perfectly. If this turns out to be the bottom, then it could go for an inverted AB=CD move all the way up to the 1.272 Fibonacci Extension up at $125.92.
General Motors to ChargePoint Trading at Bearish Shark PCZI think that these two stock will trade in opposite directions to each other, so I am tracking the ratio between the two stocks, and it looks like General Motors has just about hit the limit to the amount of ChargePoint shares it will be able to buy, and so I expect a decline in GM price and a Rise in ChargePoint's price from here.
General Motors: Bear Flag Bearish BacktestGeneral Motors after getting the TSLA Charging Plug collaboration news was able to generate enough energy to come back up to test the Bearish Channel and 55 Week EMA and from there it got a moderate rejection from it. This could be just the start of a greater move down to the zone between the 0.786 and 0.886 Fibonacci Retraces.
I could aslo see a scenario as to where GM and Ford Motors comes down as the Charging Station Stocks such as ChargePoint and maybe Blink rebound back up, as the moves between these after the news report were opposite of each other and they have two opposing setups.
LiveWire LVW EV Motorcycle Company SPAC Blank Checkran across this in a Michael Burry article.
Transaction net proceeds of $545 million* will fund LiveWire's strategic plan to accelerate its go-to-market model, invest in new product development, and enhance global manufacturing & distribution capabilities
- LiveWire will benefit from industry-leading strategic partners - Harley-Davidson and KYMCO, a leading global powersports company headquartered in Taiwan - by leveraging their engineering expertise, manufacturing footprint, distribution, supply chain infrastructure and global logistics capabilities
- LiveWire pro forma enterprise value of approximately $1.77 billion
- Harley-Davidson and ABIC to Host a Joint Conference
VEV -- Gap fill playUnder the radar Electric Bus & Truck manufacturer trading near recent lows. Good opportunity on 1.07 gap fill.
LCID Daily Bearflag(Daily)
Beautiful bearflag.
Being in the daily Time frame, i will probably wait until wednesday to see what happens, but a rejection off this bottom trendline, could play long (with time, maybe Octover calls) and try to ride it to the top of the channel,
Downside comes if the flag breaks down, targeting 13.40
TSLA - Food for thought TSLA has been very weak (just like everything else)
I am watching a possible Lower High in the 1hr.
We can clearly see support at 690.63 area, tried to move from there, rejected at 730 and then failed to hold that support (690.93) moving all the way down to 640 area where it is now the new support.
IF price can move higher and retest 690.63 previous support and reject as resistance, there is a change we might come back down towards 640 and either make a double bottom, or fail and move lower towards 600.
However if it manages to take out 690.63 we will definitely push towards 700 and there either a bigger rejection for another leg lower or could even go higher towards 710.
Just remember how volatile the market is and don't get caught holding positions for too long. Take profits and walk away
Good Luck
Albemarle - Swing trade opportunityToday, an opening gap appeared on the daily chart of Albemarle; as a result, this offers an opportunity for a simple trade setup. We are currently bearish on Albemarle and expect a complete retracement of the opening gap. Therefore, we would like to set a price target for Alb at 198.44 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Albemarle opened up almost 7%.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic turned bullish. DM+ and DM- performed bullish crossover. However, we think these are false bullish signals. We conclude this from a low ADX value. The daily time frame is deceptive.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the short-trade setup.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- perform whipsaws, and ADX contains a low value. That indicates the presence of a very weak trend. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TSLA channelTSLA is moving inside this ascending channel nicely (Look 15 min for a better visual)
Price is now testing the bottom of the channel. If price rejects, we might see a retest of the top of the channel.
In case price breaks below the channel, could see a push towards the base.
FOMC tomorrow, so expect extreme volatility and whipsaw moves.
Cheap Nickel junior located next to companies worth 100x moreXander Resources is an under-the-radar Nickel-Gold-Lithium play with properties next to companies worth 100x or more than its $3.6M market cap. Timmins, ON Nickel property that is right next to Canada Nickel Company TSXV:CNC ($330M market cap) is of particular interest. Nickel prices are hitting 10-year highs on dwindling inventories. Exploration will begin in early 2022 and there's no other junior that I am aware of that is this cheap and owns this many prospective projects right next to major discoveries and existing mines.
In addition to #Nickel, XND also owns:
- #Gold claims next to TSXV:PRB ($305M mkt cap), TSX:GBAR ($57M mkt cap), $TSX:ELD ($2.1B mkt cap), TSXV:MD ($37M mkt cap), TSX:WM ($290M mkt cap)
- #Lithium claims next to existing mines & CSE:NEWD ($17M mkt cap)
Technicals: Bullish MACD momentum. Accumulation trend. Bullish biased Falling Wedge pattern on the longer term weekly chart.
$F beginning to outperform peersF compared to the etf CARZ which represents the overall auto industry has broken with strength a long downward trend in the performance of F in comparison to the industry and it has done so with gusto. I believe this trend in Ford's outperformance will continue.
F-150 Lightning will be one of the number one selling EV's. Ford sold 780,000 F150's in 2020 alone despite the supply chain/chip issues and pandemic. It's going to be a monster of a profit puppy.
There also appears to be an emerging golden cross on the 1-month chart.