TESLA Super Cycle Pieces; +/- $50 Price Swing Window; $363 PTNever bet against a historical visionary. Jobs, Tesla, Lincoln, Da Vinci, all men with a dynamic will to see their ideas become reality.
With 2018 being turbulent and full of volatility, it's been feeding time for the anemic bears coming out of 2017. There's been no shortage of Puts and other short positions against even the best names, and Tesla these days is one of the more fashionable ones to be riding against. Downward momentum and Trump related drama has tanked the stock to a recently unheard of level in much the same way downward momentum and Trump drama did back in November/December of last year. But after bouncing off its previous, cyclical range, a transformation took hold and a new range was established.
The previous range was of about $80 or so. The new one that we entered into has held at about the same between its lows and all-time highs. The previous range lasted for about 3 years, and then the election hit and gave a big reset to the story because of the political environment Tesla would be working in. Trend lines drawn around the last part of the cycle and the new cycle (for the understood context that Tesla is a transformational and disruptive company, its lines can't rightfully be drawn on traditional or historic levels) demonstrate a volatile, but balanced move forward until the tariff discussions began. Then it's been nothing but downgrades and negative articles on all investing forums.
The stock hit a critical support line before quickly rebounding past the three smaller resistance lines formed around the aforementioned transformational period. The stock likes to hover around this $300 level during most times of negative press/crisis and it's held up rather well even amid the flurry of news mentioned in the first paragraph. Looking at recent price moves, the peaks right around the $350 fib level indicate where the market will generally move with a squeeze and perceived stability. Moving beyond that is definitely a test of emotion and investor sentiment derived from Musk's announcements. Anyone capitalizing on the oversold shares on their way back up to $300 is aware of the dynamic involved with Tesla stock. It's a hard company to want to hold LONG because people will almost always want to bring it down either to enjoy trading the volatile range or because they're on a crusade to see Elon locked up for being some kind of con artist.
Whatever the case, Tesla is an excellent company to jump into for technical trades (in my opinion) if you understand the story, historical timing and cycles and emotional quotient. The stock is hovering around its usual, sustained range low and it is close to the same historic level that it was at before its incredible breakout to $380+. Next earnings call is schedule for the first week of May and looking back, post-May has been a regular period of growth while going into the summer season. I believe we'll experience this again for a few reasons, but if you're up to date on breaking news, China has now agreed to start easing trade and lower tariffs on imported (Tesla) cars. The Model 3 ramp up, which everyone and their mother has been keeping tabs on, had to be left in the hands of someone else for the sake of smart, operational logistics. Elon had to give someone else a chance, he can't do everything. The results weren't to his or anyone else's liking, so he's stepped in once again to oversee it. As mentioned in the opening statement, don't bet against a true visionary.
Aside from the Model 3, Tesla has had the Solar City acquisition under its belt for over a year. They've successfully completed an energy project in Australia and a new one is forming in The Kingdom. Tesla Semi is now a tangible product, as is the new roadster. There are pieces that, put together, signal what is being hailed as another "transformative" year by leadership. May the market have mercy on shorts if Trump tweets anything supportive about Tesla. PT of $363 by July, all news being good and equal.
