Crude oil is in a good position to make a rally.The main idea is to buy oil futures. This conclusion was based on Elliott wave principle. I hope you know basics of this type of techical analysis, if not i suggest you to read elliott wave principle by Robert Prechter.
Lets come back to chart. Overall I suspect that we will see strong impulse move, that will end 4th wave and than we will see new bottom near 15 usd. The timing is always hard to predict, but depends on wave relations, its should take 2-3 years before we will see 15 usd per barrel. Yeah its a long run, but we have nice opportunity to enter a nice trade now, in the last move upside. I think that 4th wave of a big move down that started from 2011, will take form of a combination: zigzag - flat. We have already seen zigzag and AB of flat, now i hope to see a good impulse move labeled C that will end 4th wave.
EWA
Triangle vs ABC. Just wait for the breakout 50% in cashWell, if 2200 holds it could be good buy below 2300 with 3000+ target.
If not, drop to 1800 is quite possible.
It's rather risky to buy at E wave end at 2300, since it could extend to 1800 and form ABC.
But after confirmed pullback from E end, it could be interesting to buy at wave 2 when triangle would be broken upwards.
So nothing special: waiting for triangle breakout.
(3) done. SHORT'EM. Targets 2222.2.618 of (1) and a bunch of more fibo levels could suggest that we're topping in (3) wave.
Since (2) was rather deep and long (ETFeee ABC) we could have some light correction .24 - .38 - .5 - .62 correction to 2368 - 2222 - 2100 - 1987.
Personally I rebuy half of my short at 2400 since that Japaneese could trash all that elliott stuff and over-over-extend that 5.(3) to 2969 (1.62 fibo of 0-3 sequence).
Same reason - YOU should consider not being margin called until 3200 at minimum.
Theory: astrocycle.net
Short target 600-. Stop 1500+In green scenario we're already in wave 3 of (3) and should skyrocket to 2000+ in no time, kinda till june 1st. The main confirmation will be breakout above green long term trend resistance line.
This is the best we could have.
In red scenario, we've finished huge year-long wave ((B)) and are going to make huge year-long wave ((C)). Currently we're in wave A of ((C)) which could be zizgzag itself.
Confirmation of this bear scenario is breaking below 760 - invalidating bullish count.
Technically both scenarios are possible and outcome depends on whether hardfork happens or not.
Currently market thinks that hardfork is unlikely, but we all know how it could radically change in minutes. So it is good time to temporarily hedge your bitcoin positions at near-1200 prices.
It could be rapid selloff and beginning of year-long bearish trend.
Again, if prices climb above 1300-1400, there will still be some pullbacks to rebuy.
bitcoin unlimited downside2 of (3) bullish scenario will be invalidated when price will be under 740. Obviously, if hardfork happens, everybody will own two copies - BTU & BTC, but BTC will drop significantly, I suppose kinda 500 or less.
If no fork occurs, we could see (3) wave running into 1500+. But honestly I don't believe in it until new ATH at 1400+.