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FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 27th 2018Market tried to trade lower for 2 consecutive days but was repelled by the demand / confluence zone (2214 - 2227). In both sessions market was closed near the bottom of the zone, suggesting the area may already be weakened and is not able to catapult market to trade higher. Scenario #1 Assuming this morning market opens within the vicinity of the previous close, it may slide lower towards the new confluence area between 2201 and 2208 before rallying upwards. In this scenario, a new high at 2265 - 2278 is still within reach in order to complete the E leg of wave (4). Scenario #2 Market may open lower and is able to break the lower channel as well as violates the harmonic bearish level (2192). If FCPO is able to trade lower and maintain below 2192, it is tilted to the bearish dominance. It will effortlessly trade lower to the next demand zone (2164 - 2180) before finding some real resistance over there. Moving forward, we may see some retracement to the 2214 - 2227 before it continues to move further down south. We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 20th 2018Market gives clear indications that the corrective wave (4) is currently developing when it completely violated the invalidation level (2225) ( 16thAug18 analysis ) and managed to close the gap area (2230 – 2243) ( 17thAug18 analysis ). The 3-subwave structures are apparently seen in the first 4 waves (A, B, C & D). The final leg should have the same structure as well in order to complete the correction phase. If new high is formed, it will be limited by the supply zones (2252 - 2262 & 2265 -2275) and the extreme high of wave (4) will be governed by the established upper channel (solid blue line). 2 possible scenarios can be deduced as far as Elliott Wave is concerned. In the first scenario, market may attempt to reach new high at the supply zone (2252 - 2262) before trading lower to the demand zone (2214 - 2227). Market will then may make the final push upwards to complete wave (4). In the second scenario, we anticipate market to trade lower before moving upwards. If market is able to break lower channel (solid blue line) and close the gap area (2164 - 2180) in a decisive manner, it signifies wave (4) had already terminated at 2265 price level and wave (5) is currently unfolding. A recount will be required in this case to reflect the change of direction. Likewise, a recount is needed if market is showing a resolved movement upwards, breaking the upper channel. We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 17th 2018There are 2 possible scenarios that we can come up with. Scenario #1 : Wave (ii) of (5) had already completed and market should now move further down south in a decisive manner. We would like to see the lower correction channel (solid blue lines) to be broken and the gap area (2164 - 2180) to be closed. By fulfilling these 2 conditions, we can safely rule out that bullish momentum has finally run out of steam. Scenario #2 : As of now, the correction structure of wave (ii) of (5) is hardly recognized. We prefer to assume that wave (ii) of (5) is currently unfolding and is expected to develop into a simple zigzag. In this preferred scenario, market should trade lower to the golden retracement area (2203 – 2205) before making the final push to reach new high at the fresh confluence zone (2233 - 2238). Bear in mind, the gap area between 2221 - 2243 cannot be breached. If market pulls off to close the gap area, it is very likely that wave (4) is still progressing.
MYX:FCPO1!
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FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 16th 2018Wave (i) of (5) projection is still in a good shape provided market is able trade lower; confined within the downtrend channel (dashed lines). Ideally, termination wave 3 of (i) of (5) below 2160 price level is preferred to decisively brush off any bullish attempt. Market, however, could open higher early in the morning and may continue to edge up to the 2225 – 2230 area before trading lower eventually. Please note, a continuous violation of invalidation level (2225) may indicate a renewed bullish momentum. Failing to break lower correction channel (solid blue lines) or failing to close below 2180 price level by end of this week may indicate the correction of wave (4) is still on the cards. If that is the case, market could transpire into 3-drive pattern or ascending triangle in the coming weeks. We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 15th 2018During previous session, FCPO slid lower towards the demand zone (2190 - 2200) before bouncing upwards. Moving forward, the upwards momentum may be short lived and price may go downwards right away early in the morning session. A sharp fall towards the gap area is possible assuming the demand zone (2190 - 2200) that was tested yesterday has been partially or completely consumed. A strong and solid fall is a clear manifestation of unfolding wave 3 of (i) of (5). We, however, expect FCPO to continue to edge up until it reaches the supply zone (2225 - 2230) before it starts to move downwards. If market succeeds to stay above 2225 - 2230 area by end of the day, we may see a new high forming tomorrow (thanks to the new spot month contract). The new top will be limited by confluence area (2265 - 2275) and its extreme high will be governed by the upper channels (dotted and solid lines). We will see what market offers us today.
MYX:FCPO1!
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FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 14th 2018In my humble opinion, it is an early sign that the downtrend has just begun after market managed to break the 2220 price level during previous session. In order to ascertain its bearish dominance, market needs to break the lower channel (solid) as well as closing the gap area (2164 - 2180). If price is able to stay below 2160, it raises the probability that the market will slide further down at faster rate. In order to maintain this bearish posture, the upside should be limited to 2225 - 2230 area (a perfect sell spot). The correction of wave (4) is not over yet if it manages to stay above 2190 - 2200 area. November18 contract and October18 contract differ by almost 25++ ticks. If market is able to stay around 2230 - 2240 in the next couple of days, price will effectively hover around 2250 - 2260 on a continuous chart (FCPO-CC) on Thursday session. If this scenario prevails, a new high could possibly be formed, thus a possible triangle of wave C of (4).
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 13th 2018Here's another iteration of EW count on hourly chart. If compared with the previous analysis , both share same similarity; they are converging into a triangle (a compression to be precise). If either one holds true, it is a clear indication that wave (4) is definitely going to end. Assuming price resumes from previous close, market is expected to move upwards but limited; capped by the new confluence area (2268 - 2277) and is bound by the upper channel. Date range is used to better gauge the extreme high market could go before it starts descending. If the compression is actually taking place and it is to be completed within 2 days (12 bars), the maximum price would be 2290. Any solid price movement crossing 2290 - 2300 area will require a recount.
MYX:FCPO1!
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FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 9th 2018FCPO has reached the extreme upper channel (dotted) at 2265 price level during previous session and is expected to make its way downwards. That being said, we cannot rule out that the correction phase is not over yet. On hourly chart, we can see a possible A-B-C-D-E triangle, governed by the red lines, is currently forming. If price manages to cross below the 2210 - 2220 area (breaking the previous low structure and breaking the lower red line) and slip past the 2175 - 2190, we can assume that bearish momentum starts to gain the upper hand. Today, FCPO may move in a range-bound as everyone is eagerly waiting for MPOB report to be released tomorrow afternoon. We will see whether the report can give the heavy lifting for the downtrend.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 8th 2018At hourly chart, there is a strong indication that wave (4) is developing into a 5 sub-wave triangle (the a-b-c structure can be clearly seen in each sub-wave). The structure looks complete (wave (5) is about to begin) but we are expecting FCPO to make its final touch at the supply zone (2240 - 2260) before it starts its journey further down south. The uptrend will be limited by the supply zone (2240 - 2260) and is bound by the upper channel (dashed lines). Should alternate count (green) comes into play, wave (4) may retrace up to 2270 - 2276 area. Note: 2275 is the 0.386 retracement of wave (3). For the sake of clarity, please refer to FCPO: Weekly EW Count .
MYX:FCPO1!
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FCPO: Weekly EW Count 08Aug18At weekly chart, FCPO is about to complete wave (4) and we are expecting wave (5) to start developing this week or early next week. Wave (4) development is quite evident by looking at the sluggish nature of price movement (compression), bound by converging red triangle (rising wedge). Wave (4) is expected to complete around 2240 - 2260 with maximum retracement at 2275 (0.386 retracement of wave (3)). Please refer to FCPO: Monthly EW Count for overall Elliott Wave mapping.
MYX:FCPO1!
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FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 3rd 2018Primary Count (Black): The upward count of wave C of (4) is still valid provided price does not breach through the support zone (gap) between 2164 - 2180. We should see FCPO price to descend to the retracement area (0.5 - .618) between 2170 -2179 to complete another correction (wave (y) of (2)) before gathering strength to move back up. Alternate Count (Green): If price manages to close the gap area, it suggests the bull run has probably ended (wave C of (4) had terminated at 2233 price level)
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
3
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 23th 2018EW Count (Black): The 3-drive pattern failed to materialize as FCPO slid lower during early session last Friday before it gathered bullish momentum towards the end of session, retesting the broken lower channel (red). Uptrend will resume and is expected to reach the 2240 - 2260 area (supply area), should it is able to break the 2206 and 2220 levels. We should see a technical retracement to the 2190 - 2206 area before the market is making final attempt to reach the untested supply zone. EW Count (Green): If FCPO fails to break 2206 level, price could slide lower than the previous session. 2253 level is within reach should 2172 level is broken. The 2144 - 2153 area is the last stand where the price shouldn't penetrate through. If market slips past 2144 level, we can safely say upwards momentum is already exhausted.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 19th 2018As per my previous analysis , FCPO is now in the corrective phase and is currently moving towards the end of completing wave iv. Scenario #1 (Black count) Wave iv is characterized by a 3 - drive pattern moving upwards, bound by the deceleration channel. The first 4 sub-waves (A, B, C and D) had already completed and we should see the completion of the final leg (wave E) by end of this week or early next week. Completing wave E is an uphill battle given the lackluster bullish elements. We shall see this morning whether weaker MYR could lend the final push to FCPO to move upwards. If that is the case, we should pay extra attention to the following zones 1. supply area /previous low structure (2237 - 2249) 2. gap area (2245 - 2259) 3. supply area (2225 - 2230) where a complete reversal is very likely to take place. Scenario #2 (Green count) If bearish elements prevail and MYR poor performance could not be translated into short term bullish momentum, wave C signifies the end of wave iv (a zig zag correction terminated at 38.2% retracement of wave 3) and the final march to further down south is imminent. Scenario #3 (Purple count) It is a plausible projection (expanded triangle or even worse expanded flat) but I will not dwell on this idea unless it shows signs to materialize.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
Soybean Oil (ZL): Monthly EW CountIt is already 10 years since commodities super cycle took commodity markets to the all time high and soybean oil (ZL) market has been in the corrective period ever since. In a monthly chart, we could see that the correction of larger degree takes in the form of flat correction (3-3-5). As far as supply and demand (SnD) is concerned, there are 2 demand zones of interests 1. demand zone #1 (23.46 - 25.34) 2. demand zone #2 (18.83 - 20.84) Technically, wave (3) of V of C is currently developing and could extend its tail to 24.00 level or below. With the trade war between the USA and China is on the brink of being fully developed, the market dipping to the 19.00 level is not really a far fetched projection.
CBOT:ZL1!
by eches
2
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 16th 2018Last week, FCPO price penetrated the (2186 - 2250) area and closed in to the next weekly demand zone (2089 - 2132) in a decisive manner; a clear manifestation of wave iii. FCPO is expected to respond to this area early this week for a technical rebound (wave iv) and should be moving upwards in a corrective fashion. The acceleration channel (so does the Fibonacci retracement level on the right side of the chart) will be updated accordingly to reflect the termination point of wave iii. The maximum retracement of wave iv should be bound by the base channel. Should wave iv is gradually developing into a triangle or flat correction rather than a quick zig-zag, the base channel will likely converge into a few important zones as follow 1. previous low structure (2238 - 2250), 2. supply area (2237 - 2250) and 3. gap zone (2245 - 2259). giving the perfect confluence area for us to take a short position. Price movement that crosses the invalidation level (2316) may signify the market has hit rock bottom and the major trend reversal has already begun.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: EW Weekly Count - Jul 1st 2018Weekly EW count indicates FCPO is currently at wave V of (c). Next week we could see market will attempt to pierce through the demand zone (2186 - 2250) amid the trade war tension between the US & China. The price could edge up slightly in the early week though; buoyed with weaker Ringgit Malaysia. The seasonal cycle of palm plantation is expected to ramp up the production output within the next couple of months, lending more pressure for FCPO to move downwards overall. Price movement that goes up beyond 2654 invalidates the EW count; the major downtrend should have ended and it signifies a major trend reversal.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 11th 2018Overall trend is still downward. Scenario #1 Wave iv has completed (or still in progress). Should wave iv is still in progress, the upward movements should be limited to 2287 - 2297 area. Scenario #2 Price is moving downwards within the channel, creating an extended wave iii. Price could go down until 2180 - 2210 before some retracement (wave iv) Scenario #3 (trend reversal) Trend reversal is assumed if price crosses beyond the invalidation level (2217).
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by eches
1
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 5th 2018 (Possible Entries)I have laid out 2 possible movements for today as depicted in the chart. The downwards EW count is merely a projection and will be updated accordingly from time to time as the market gradually unfolds. Entries Short #1: 2297 - 2305 (Stoploss around 2310) Short #2: 2320 - 2329 (Stoploss around 2335) Alternate count (major upwards movement) can be technically ruled out. By ruling out the alternate count, wave 5 is anticipated and it can go all the way down to 2100 level. If you have short position, hold it with a stoploss at around 2349. Long #1: 2270 - 2279 (Stoploss around 2267) Long position is expected to be a minor retracement with the upper limit is bound by the channel (dashed) and S&D area (2297 - 2305).
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
2
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 3rd 2018Primary count : Last Friday, the 2348 level which corresponds to 0.5 retracement of wave (iii) had given an outright rejection to the market. Interestingly, the 2340 level which corresponds to 2.618 projection of wave (a) managed to stand the second day attempt as well. The perfect confluence between this invisible resistance area (2340 to 2350) and the previous low of daily market structure provides us a good area to go short with minimal risk. Alternate count : Assuming alternate count (green) is still in place, FCPO is expected to move in a corrective fashion bound by a short term channel. The lower channel terminates nicely inside the pinbar area, a suitable zone for a long position at around 2310 - 2315 area with a small stop loss that can be loosely set at around 2305.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 2nd 2018Primary count: FCPO is expected to move further downwards if it manages to break the (2300 - 2315) area and if it succeeds to maintain below 2300 level. The chance gets even better if price is able to cross the 2289 invalidation point. Alternate count: Price may respond at the (2300 - 2315) area and moving higher to the next supply /gap zone at around (2378 - 2388). Crossing above invalidation level (2395) could possibly signify the exhaustion of downtrend.
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches