silver is about to go downaccording to Elliot wave principle, silver just finished a WXY correction with a 5 wave as wave Y, which terminates at 23.514 and which is exactly 0.618% of the preceding wave and wave Y is just 0.628 points away from 22.912 as 1.618% of the projected wave W, expanded to wave X, where wave Y terminates @ 23.514 of the correction. and on the smaller degree, wave 5 of wave Y terminates at exactly 23.514 which is .618% of the net price action movement of wave 1&3 which indicates the completion of the fifth wave.
EWI
Coronavirus Regional Long/Short Japan (EWJ) outperforms as Coronavirus cases are low (due to low testing), but country now on the verge of a massive virus outbreak, in line w/ EU & US.
Italy (EWI) lags DM, seen as new epicenter of Coronavirus. Country on lockdown, virus priced in (relative to Japan).
Italy also has sov debt & banking crisis overhang- but Japan also has massive sov debt & banking crisis, just not as widely publicized.
Banking/debt crisis aside, strictly from coming Coronavirus data reaction, RELATIVE pair trade:
Short EWJ (Japan) / Long EWI (Italy)
ETFs are FX hedged to mitigate some of USD vol interference.
USDRUBSo many talks about RUB and Oil last days.
Well, as for oil - was waiting this downtrend since January , a lot of people told me that im incorrect and USOIL will go up... now its about 30$ per barrel, and im sure that this is not the end ( ofc oil will make a correction before going down again).
And now ruble . In 2018 we've made wave (1) and whole 2019 was a correction in wave (2). As u can see, price made a pivot just in the golden zone (61% fibo). After that, rub devaluated for about 20% in a few days. You think that think that this is the end? As for me, I think that this is only beginning. So globally we have 3 possible targets (yellow lines) : 89, 113, 145. In my opinion 89 will be too small, so for me main target in wave (3) is 113.
Stay tuned, I think in future I will post a few more ideas about Russian ruble .
If u wanna to support this idea - like and comment it, please.
EWI Short ITALY due to CoronavirusSource: Corriere della Sera
Over 150 cases of Coronavirus in Italy and 7 regions are blocked and many villages in quarantine. Austria blocked all trains coming from the regions ar risk. Risk on for Europe this week.
This present a potential short opportunity as the week starts. This idea provides two target levels and good buyback opportunity at Target 2 if reached.
Bullish or Bearish?For now I see 2 ways of the price movement
1. Bullish (green variant on the chart)
Correction has ended, new big impulse is coming and we have made 1-2-1-2 waves (green variant on the chart
2.Bearish (red variant of the chart)
Last dip was only (a) wave of Zigzag, now we are moving in (b). after that we will see 5900% per BTC
Small research about current ETH correction Impulse wave at the end of October was only C wave of X. In this case we should consider big wave 2 as triple combination WXYXZ.
ETH made W, X, Y, X, and now we are at the end of wave Z. (a) was an impulse, (b) - triangle. Because of wave (iii) extension, wave (c) is pretty deep. in the nearest future eth will decline in wave (v), but im not sure that it will be big because of previous extension. Possible levels u can the on the chart.
Fibonacci retracement WXYXZ
Whole correction overview
Correction Fib channel
I'm still pretty sure we're gonna have a big upward movement.
Don't panic. This is what the market expects from you.
BCH overviewThis chart is quite complicated for wave identification, but I will try. Big corrective wave (2) was finished at the end of September. Since then and nowadays wave (i) with ending diagonal in wave 5 was performed. Now we should wait for the end of wave (ii). From my point of view If BCH does not go up from the current fibo level of 0.61 - the correction can be quite deep, up to the level of 23.6 (look at the volume profile, there is no any support till this level)
Stop - Yellow line
TP - Green line
ETH key levels for longHello everyone. As I said in my previous ideas about eth - it will go down for a little and then make a reversal. Here we are.
Now we have 2 support levels, and as u can see we have reached one of them. The next question is will eth go a little bit more down (170$ or about) or it will go up to it next targets. 2 main targets for now are 250$ and 300$ per eth. Stay tuned :)
THE MONTH AHEAD (IRA): EX. CANADA/U.S. ETF'S FOR DIVIDENDSIt shouldn't come as a massive shocker to anyone that the U.S. market has been and has gotten even more expensive. For an investor that is just starting out, it is enormously frustrating, since virtually everything is at the top of a very long term trajectory with the broad market yet again knocking at the door of all-time-highs.
Here are a few acquisition ideas for ex. U.S./Canada exchange-traded funds that pay in excess of SPY (1.90%), IWM (1.33%), QQQ (.84%), and DIA (2.21%) and TLT (average 20-year maturity treasuries) (2.22%). To put things in some additional context: HYG (High Yield Corporate Bonds) is paying 5.29% (paid monthly), EMB (Emerging Market Bonds) -- 5.45%, XLU (Utilities) -- 2.93% (paid quarterly), and IYR (REIT) -- 2.63%.*
EEM: Emerging Market. It gets huge volume (79 million 90-day) and is extremely liquid on the options side of things. The downside is that you get about TLT is currently paying in yield -- 2.22%, paid out quarterly, and fund managers had to muck it up by sticking a whole bunch of China in there. If I wanted to play a Chinese exchange-traded fund, I'd play one (e.g., FXI).
EFA: Behind the funky acronym (MSCI EAFE), this is basically a world excluding the U.S. and Canada exchange-traded fund. Sporting a 3.18% yield, it pays dividends every six months, trades healthy share volume (90-day average 18.3 million), and has good options expiry availability and liquidity, a must for investors looking to go short put/acquire/cover.
EWA: Australia. Granted, the share volume isn't great (1.7 million 90-day), but the yield is 5.54%. Expiry availability isn't fantastic and neither is option liquidity. Dividends pay out twice a year. 21.82/share as of Friday close.
EWG: Germany. 90-day 1.98 million shares average. 2.83% paid once a year. Decent expiry availability/liquidity. 26.44/share as of Friday close.
EWI: Italy. 90-day 1.90 million shares on average. 4.63% paid out once every six months. Expiry availability/liquidity isn't great, with the general solution being to be "fill picky." 26.95 as of Friday close.
EWW: Mexico. 90-day 3.20 million shares traded on average. 4.17% paid out twice a year. Good expiry availability and option liquidity. 43.64 as of Friday close.
EWT: Taiwan. 90-day 5.80 million shares traded. 2.74% paid out once a year. Expiry availability isn't great and neither is options liquidity. 36.71 as of Friday close.
EWZ: Brazil. 90-day 21.58 million shares traded. 2.71% paid out every six months. Excellent expiry availability/options liquidity. 42.11 as of Friday close.
RSX: Russia. 90-day 5.58 million shares traded. 4.31% yield paid out once a year. Expiry availability/options liquidity decent and decent. 22.51 as of Friday close.
The general play on these would be short put, acquire, then cover. Naturally, you'll probably want to drill into the charts on each of these to determine which ones might be trading at a discount.
* -- IYR, XLU, and EMB have ripped higher recently, so are kind of out of range of prices at which I'd like to acquire. Forever the optimist, however, I've got a couple "not a penny more" short puts hanging out there in XLU and HYG. (See Posts Below).
What will Bitcoin do next?Hello Tradingview!
We are happy to announce that today we start sharing our public ideas with everyone!
The first coin we wanted to dicuss is (of course!) Bitcoin. Let's analyze the current situation and try to understand what do we expect from the price of an asset in the near future. We see 2 scenarios - positive and negative. If we consider the negative one- then there is still a triangle with the expected price down to the range of 7500-8500. On the other hand, if we look at the positive scenario (by the way, our team is more inclined towards the positive) - the triangle has already ended and we make the initial impulses 1 - 2
If price goes above 11100 - that will signal that we have finally turned around and soon reach the new local high.
If the price drops below 9200, we bellieve that correction has not yet ended, and expect a downward movement
In order to be completely sure which particular scenario will occur, we recommend waiting for the situation to develop and buying an asset after passing substantial levels.
If you like what we do - don’t forget to subscribe and like us! The more likes we get - the more often we will release our ideas
DXY Weekly Trip Top DXY trip top on the weekly is a strong signal for USD reversal. In my opinion USD was already devaluing for some time but large group of speculators have kept it high longer than ever expected.
On this chart also my preferred equally weighted index (EWI) of USD, which simply measures USD strength against the basket of major currencies, each equally weighted. This is different from DXY which weighs more towards EUR and includes Swedish Krona and not all majors..
The EWI is making an interesting curve, different from DXY since mid June last year. It was likely the FED interest announcement speech at that time which caused speculators to keep buying the USD for a long time after that.
Italian referendum - News breakdownIn this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today.
The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out.
I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...).
I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think).
Good luck today,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCAD: Is the consolidation about to end?In my opinion, USDCAD is about to finish the sideways consolidation (correction to larger degree downtrend) that started 5 months ago. If my wave counts are correct, we will soon see a fall of USDCAD to go for wave-3 or wave-C to the downside. I will publish the detailed Elliott wave count labels & the Entry/Stoploss/Profit targets later in the comments.
Happy Profitable Investing :)