Lower lows likelySPX looks like is putting in a 4th wave, with 5 down still needed to finish a potential impulse off the 3912 high. Once that is done there should be an ABC bounce and then an even larger decline. for now likely lower lows coming, once today's LOD is taken out, we'll just have to watch for signs the full 5 finishes and then short the ABC bounce.
EWT
Energy Web token📈 Bullish scenario for EWT - corporations and green energy
Energy Web Token - helps web2/traditional companies use blockchain technology to access and manage green energy assets, built on EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine)
The project has partnerships or working together with Vodafone, PayPal, Shell and many others. The project also was mentioned in a press-release of BlackRock.
BlackRock, in its press-release, has highlighted the importance of Energy Web's role in the fight for green energy. Many corporations are "sick" of green energy and this is another advantage for Energy Web.
The prospects for green use of blockchain are significant: Ripple has invested 100 million in carbon markets. And the White House is developing policies to reduce Bitcoin's energy consumption and carbon footprint.
In terms of tokenomics: EWT is capitalized at $120 million with limited emission, the token is used to pay fees in blockchain + for staking. The value is clear.
As a conclusion, Energy Web is a bet on the adoption of cryptocurrency by institutions, corporations and states. Top funds are paying attention to such projects for a reason, it means they have already done the analysis.
From the technical point of view EWT has strength in the moment, we rose and stand without aggressive sells, for me the buying zone of $2.5-3.5 is interesting. Partial sales recomended at $7, $15, $20-22
$HBAR Log chart Elliott Wave Analysis. Floki here with the first of many Elliott Wave Analysis crypto updates.
Starting with HBAR, a coin very close to my heart, which I will qualify as Blue Chip going forward. The RL use cases it brings to the table are undeniable.
But on the technical side, is the correction done? I'd say the odds of it being done are at about 70%. There is still room (30% chance) to go lower with a final 5th wave of Ⓒ. That would make this whole move up and down a Macro i & ii. And we all know what comes next right ? The infamous wave iii on macro scale.
My bias was way off in my last analysis on January. But the market has shown us its hand as of now.
Trade safe y'all.
$FTT (Log)- Correction unlikely done here. But looks promising. This is one of my bluechip coins and has been for sometime. I miss the first move up and I don't intend to let that happen again.
Some big CT accounts are calling for sub 10$ prices. While I can understand the confluence, I still see a support well above that level. With the extended 3rd wave, I do see a good reason to bounce around the 19$ range. I see the waves clearly on this coin and I'll be tempted to short into my bias at some point in the near future. I see us finishing waves ii/Ⓨ/(C)/5 with the current 5 wave impulsive or diagonal structure. WXY is clear as day from the top of ⑤.
Safe trades to all of you. Don't forget your SL.
Long Energy Web Token(EWT) vs BTCEWT has been accumulating against BTC for almost a year and it looks like it's time for expansion.
Monthly support is holding and it is still in a range, but with upcoming big news and staking this month, I think EWT will show it's true potential in the upcoming months.
On of the fundamentaly most undervalued coins out there.
Target is almost 10x against BTC and that is a big deal, but EWT is made for big things.
TDOC (zoom in from bigger picture idea)I posted the bigger picture view in my previous post where I provided the context for this idea, which is my near-term projection with 2 most likely paths of price action from current level)... see context overview below:
To summarize:
- the main pattern I am watching is the completion of wave C of an expanded flat - this is potentially wave II of a larger cycle, invalidated if price drops below 9. A local bottom at 27.30 on May 12 fits the criteria as the 5th subwave of C of this expanded flat, which would make it a 2.00 retracement of wave B of that EF (wave B is also my primary wave 5 at the all time high (ATH) of 308 back in Feb. 2021.
- (1) - (2) of circle C was a double combo off correction off the ATH that broke down and has been forming the Z of a triple combo off the ATH that encompasses wave circle C of the expanded flat
- (3) - (4) of circle C ended in an expanding triangle around the 1.618 retracement of circle B, this resulted in a nasty gap down to the level that TDOC went public (~28).. this was necessary to realize the 5th and final count of circle C, and also to retest TDOCs IPO level for support.
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So now were here. The goal of the big money seems to accumulating shares and establishing a bottom at larger cycle wave II before beginning mark up. The move off the new low has the setup to be very explosive upside for a couple reasons:
- it will simultaneously complete the expanded flat correction and the primary corrective wave
- there is a massive gap to fill to the upside
- potential for short squeeze with over 23% float, and the entire market is a dangerous enviroment for shorts right now if names like TDOC, SPOT, EPAM, etc. (i.e. solid companies with significant near-term upside potential) trigger the squeeze
Here's what the chart and the math is telling me for TDOC - there is room next week to make a run to low-mid 40s (point target 46) and complete E of the new triangle forming at (5) of circle C. There is also evidence that wyckoff accumulation began after the gap down and is now in either phase b or c.
-if c, then the spring was just realized at D of the blue triangle, and the next thing we will see is a sign of strength to a level > blue A. Looking at the trendline resistance through the highs of blue A & C, TDOC just broke above that Friday 6/24, and made a low just above the resistance (indicating potential support). The marginal gap is at 46, so it is possible to see a test of marginal gap fill at 46, which would be the SoS, followed by a backup/retest of the upper triangle for support before markup. I am getting confluence for the initial target from current level = 46, so I am expecting that to be the next level reached from here {confluence: 46 is my time series forecast by July 15, 46 is the extrapolated level that will be realized if RSI makes it to around 70 and becomes oversold - bullish momentum pointing to that, 46 is the 0.382 of the upper part of previous triangle (i.e. (4) of circle C), and 46 is the marginal gap). Thus, if blue D was in fact the spring, then expect the solid black path to materialize and continue to around 60 (0.618 w.r.t (4) of circle C, and just above the nominal gap fill in the mid 50s). Would likely consolidate at ~60 before deciding if it has the fuel to begin larger cycle III. If so, the next target will be 93 by Jan. 2023. IF solid black path is realized then will likely see an impulse wave off the 2022 low that has just begun to materialize.
- if we are only in phase b of the wyckoff accumulation, then it is likely the spring will be at a lower low around 14-19. So the dotted black path is second most likely and would look like:
- pop to 46 to complete blue E
- drop to 14-19 to complete (5) of circle C, Z of triple combo, and ultimately larger cycle II
- pop to low 50s to mark the SoS
- retest triangle resistance around mid 30s
- pop to 0.618 at ~60, consolidate, and then continue toward 90s by early 2023
* indication in favor of solid black path materializing is via a proprietary method I developed using stochastic differntial equations. I won't go into the details here, but I have learned not to bet against it when it gives a bullish signal - I got that signal Friday 6/24. Also, the fact that we got bought up at the critical support around the IPO price is a good sign it doesn't need to make a new low... however, if they want to do one more shakeout before markup then they will take it lower
** indication in favor of dotted black line materializing is that the DMI at the daily level does not yet show the properties I'd expect to see if spring was already realized (sorry not shown), it does, however, exhibit the properties of a spring already occuring at the 2-4 hour intervals. Also, I use proprietary control charts as supplemental analysis and they indicate there is moderate probability that after 42-46 there will be risk to 14-19.
Here is my plan of action based on the above, as well as the linked idea of the bigger picture (this is not financial advice):
- Buying shares Monday and will add in the bounce zone of 14-19 if given the opportunity
- Buying Jul 8 2022 35.00 calls and looking to sell when underlying reaches 42 and then 46 next week (both paths are pointing to initial target of 46)
- Buying Oct 21 2022 50.00 calls with expectation we see solid black path, hedging with July 15 30.00 puts in case we see dotted black path - in which case I will exit the Oct calls if TDOC closes below 32 and then re-enter Oct 21 45.00 calls once TDOC bounces at 14-19 using the profits from the hedge.
Bye.
Witchcraft: Grand Finale UpdateSee Chart and Previous Idea. Can refine to more precise expectations from here, still just approximates. Near-term downside risk still to 362, but probability favors technical bounce from here which could trigger a squeeze... and if SPY wants to bounce exactly at the bottom of the expanding triangle I drew in, chances are it will continue to respect it 4 legs in.
I just used an If-then statement conditioned on leg (d) being realized at today's low and a gap fill to 389.75 occurring following FOMC. From there I populated most likely path to (e) via Elliot Wave mixed with Witchcraft. So, something like: 370.59 -> 389.75 -> 380.54 -> 411.55 -> 397.72 -> 429.67.... -> 385.15 ------> breakout of expanding triangle at 444.29 later on in 2022.
The pasted image of the 5min SPY chart is zoomed in at the price action, thus far around the visible span of this supermoon (closest orbit to earth will be tomorrow at 7:24pm.. FEDS be spookin'). It implies a local downtrend line was broken going into close, we still need to get back above the red downtrend line at the higher time frame around 379-380 to attempt first gap-fill. My gf sent me the screenshot of the moon thing and says we're going to moonwalk.. shes a witch. The (W) C above the pasted image, that stands for Witchcraft.
I hope I see you all on the moon by end of June, else pray for my soul.
Imperio,
HeWhoMustNotBeNamed
P.S. The big money doesn't know Occlumency
Daddy Musk bout ta Get SomeUpdate from previous idea that encompasses bigger picture at play:
Summary
- initial target is 730 (near term); confirmation/entry above 681. I have calls with strike at the entry (Jun 17 680s) because highly likely it will retest this resistance (which is also the beginning of gap created yesterday on 6/13). My prediction is that it will break above entry and begin a very explosive run (see "Explaination" section below)
- Intermediate target 1 = 821.70
- Intermediate target 2 = 955.50
- Goal Target = 1400 ; this will be Primary wave 5 (circle 5). *Note: I do not expect 1400 by July, so to alleviate confusion if you read the chart as such, I just wanted to capture everything in 1 chart while still showing the mechanics of the harmonics within
Explaination
- The general pattern since intermediate wave 3 = primary wave 1 has been a break of downtrend line via bullish harmonics (these are labled throughout the chart)
- The most recent price action, which I am suggesting playing long (BUT THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE), is very bullish with a gartley coming off a butterfly to complete a 5-count Z (which completes the triple combo corrective wave, Primary (circle) 4)
What this means for the whole market : I think it has become undeniable over the recent years that the market (including the crypto market) has become highly correlated with TSLA price action, especially the big moves of TSLA - which tends to drastically affect market trends. Papa Elon is aware, don't let him manipulate you the wrong way... this planet you call earth... is not home to him. If TSLA is ending its corrective wave slightly before market, as this setup suggests, please expect the market to follow.
With Intent,
Random TSLA Graffiti Artist AKA obvious & typical "Muskie"
Contrarian Call Right Here. Optimal Bullish EntryThis is a typical bullish Wolve Wave that is on the final leg down currently. Expecting whipsaw reversal starting as soon as tomorrow, but main bullish price action will be around June 15 on the full moon (literally howl at the moon).
Expecting the yellow trajectory to play out and complete EW wave (5) around 430. The chart contains all the info you need to know, but there are a lot more dynamics at play here, mathematically/statistically, that have led me to feel highly confident about this.
- initial target is around 421-422, from there will retest ~415 and then make our way to 429-430
- the goal target is 448 by end of June ...and this makes sense with the confluence of wolve wave 1-4 projection and the ADX breakout "open long" target (stop loss 394)
- that DMI is low key bullish af, this is re-accumulation off the May 20 lows in 380s; stochastic RSI oversold and will give the escape velocity needed to reverse here and make explosive move to the upside
I'm playing the SPY June 17 411.00 calls and the June 27 429.00 calls, but this is not financial advice.
I am fully expecting the price to follow this yellow trajectory, so when you replay the bars at the end of June they'll perfectly coincide with this path, hah.
No Cap,
Prof. Lupin
Howl @ The MoonI posted a bullish idea for SPY (linked) where I did not go into detail about the wolfe wave - I am seeing major confluence with EWT, wolfe wave projection, bigger picture downtrend resistance, target via an indicator I love called "ADX Breakout", and time series forecast for both SPY and QQQ . There happens to be a full moon (a SuperMoon actually) on Tuesday Morning, June 14th, so if a Wolfe Wave gets us to intial target around that time that would be interesting. I'm not going to use any moon phase analysis here, but there is something about the moon that does in fact influence investor sentiment, albeit indirectly, though I am not expert on that subject.
This post zooms in on the Bullish Wolfe Wave and is intended for both price action projection near term and education purposes (I don't see many posts covering wolfe waves though they can be $$$ in making seemingly contrarian calls, such as this). In my counts I am using <1,...,5> for the Wolfe Wave and conventional EWC (Elliot Wave count) based on the degree.
Overview of Wolfe Wave (WW) :
Occurance
- An uptrend channel for a bearish Wolfe Wave
- A downtrend channel for a bullish WolfeWave
-Horizontal channels for consolidating price periods
Rules
Wave 3 and wave 4 remained in the channel created by waves 1 and 2.
Wave 1 and Wave 2 are symmetrical with waves 3 and 4.
Wave 5 goes above the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bearish pattern.
Wave 5 goes below the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bullish pattern.
Regular timings between waves. It means that the time taken to complete one cycle for the waves 1-3-5 is equal.
We can see in my chart that QQQ fits the bill here. There is a signal use to confirm wave <5> called "Wolfe Waves Signals " (Props to @NXT2017 for creating this wizard signal). I like it because it doesn't give frequent signals so when it occurs it is generally the real deal if the chart setup fits the bill.
Confluence
- EW intermediate count w(4) = WW <5>; projected w(5) aligns with the <1-4> projection at the expected time such that there is perfect symmetry with time between waves (see date ranges on chart). This sets up for an initial target of 317.90 by 6/13/2022
- EW primary count circle 3 aligns with the WW EPA @ ETA - EPA is the estimated price arrival, ETA is estimated time arrival and is established as the point in time where the WW support and resistance lines intersect. The level that these intersect is an equilibrium point where supply = demand; notice that E (expected <5>), w(4), and circle 2 all will occur right around this equilibrium level if we do in fact see a bounce from here and this plays out. This confluence gives us a Target of 341 by 6/29/2022 , and this is also the level of an "open long" target using ADX Breakout (not included here, there is already a lot going on didn't want to crowd the chart; also this target is at the 4H time frame, which actually makes sense with the time to target here). My time series ARIMA(0,1,0), p=0.23, upper 80%-95% PI for June 13 is 319.69 - 324.88 so the 317.90 initial target is reasonable, statistically. My upper 80-95% for June 27 is 334.90 - 348.14, so target of 341 is plausible as well.
- The downtrend line through the 11/21/2021 high and the 3/29/2021 high is the red line visible in this chart... so for those that have doubts about WW or EWT you can think of this projection as merely a test of downtrend resistance, which is very plausible considering how much time we have spent down in the gutter attempting to end this corrective wave.
The yellow path is illustrative, expecting an impulse from apprx. yesterday's low (i.e. <5> & (4) & circle 2 on chart) toward the initial target (i.e. (5) & <1-4> resistance). From there we will see an intermediate ABC corrective wave that will also serve the purpose of re-testing the WW upper channel to ensure old resistance has become support. After that I just drew a straight trajectory to the target at 341 (i.e. circle 3 & EPA @ ETA), however, this will either be a diagonal or an impulse - I'll update with expected levels is this plays out to intermediate (C).
Sincerely,
Not Jacob Black
Expanding Triangle - 520 breakout levelLRCX very bullish yet very volatile setup. I posted recently but have recognized my initial count was not correct. The correct count is the following:
- LRCX is completing the final leg of an Expanding Triangle as the 5th wave of a larger Expanded Flat, which is the wave 4 of a larger motive sequence that started a decade ago off the low around 31.17.
- the B wave of the Wave 4 expanded flat was its all time high of 731.85 in Jan 2022, which was a 1.418 extension of the A of EF (thus, the A of 4)
- There are multiple indications that Friday May 20 was bottom (f leg of expanding triangle, c of v of C of 4):
1) pinbar candle on the daily chart
2) showed support at the A level around 450 and at the same time found support at the downtrend off the Jan high - the pinbar tail got bought up quick at that 450
3) 3 counts down off the e leg completed Friday May 20 - it is currently on second count of 3 up
4) the retracement of B of expanding flat showed equality with the previous extension at about 1.418
*Minimum target is the upper trendline of expanding triangle around 520 (should test that this week and attempt breakout)
**Intermediate target if we get breakout is 548
*** Goal target is new All time high above 731 (estimating 786) to complete wave 5 of the bullish impulse by August-October of 2022.
I will post a bigger picture view idea to reference for the overall counts, this idea was meant to focus on the zoomed in expanding triangle which indicates breakout is imminent. Interesting that breakout attempt is aligning time wise with NVDA earnings May 25. If they beat it would likely provide catalyst for the inductry to run and LRCX perfect setup to move big up.
Best,
A. Crawley
Supplement to previous idea - BullishHere is the bigger picture for LRCX, as referenced in previous post on expanding triangle.
We are currently at the transition from f of C of 4 and for the reasons outlined in last idea it is likely that wave 5 of the larger impulse is about to begin (or began May 20), to summarize:
- wave 4 was an expanded flat with an ending expanding triangle as the 5th wave of C ~1.418 retracement off B (the Jan highs, which was a 1.418 extension of A)
- initial target is 522, which will be the breakout level from the expanding triangle (this attempt should unfold by end of this week in alignment with NVDA earnings. If it fails, it is likely to drop to lower support of expanded triangle around low-mid 430s; if breakout is successful it will continue to the following targets in route to complete 5th motive wave:
*Intermediate target range 548-low 600s, point target 567
** goal target range 732-786 (which will be wave 5, precise level tbd and will send update if we clear 522 and intermediate level is realized
Catalyst = witchkraft
A Clear Path from Here - organized whipsaw comingIf looking at this chart at a glance hurts your brain, no worries I will summarize for you below (I need these lines personally to make swing trade decisions but the concept is pretty simple). I am just using "1-5" rather than "I -V" but it is a smaller wave nothing major. Enough to tell us map of near-term price action going into FOMC):
Bearish wave 3 was in at yesterdays low (just slighly over 1.618 of wave 1-2), wave 2 retraced just over 50% of wave . Now we are on wave 4.
- Expected wave 4 target is 422.21 (0.382 of wave 3). Expecting to see this today actually before starting wave 5
*** IF SPY breaks above 427.52 the bearish count is invalidated (> 0.5 of wave 3). Bulls recently saw this happen back in mid April when the downside pressure invalidated their count at attempted wave 4, if you believe in paybacks don't close out all your calls just yet. Probability does not favor this, however)
- Wave 5 could drop to a variable range based on the retracement variability of EWT for wave 5 (I don't make these rules), however, my point estimate is SPY 395.76 (Range 390-400, max extended range 378-411 - you might think that is quite a range but these are the mathematical limits).
Point prediction: 420s today, 390s going into FOMC, start of major rally post-FOMC that will begin larger Wave 5 to mid 500s by end of year (below 350 invalidates a 13-year bullish structure prematurely so I would not bank on that if you respect probability). The initial target after the wave 5 at apprx. 395 confirms larger wave 4 correction is completed will be SPY 440s, of course we will have to update accordingly based on the realized levels traded.
Possible setup that could invalidate wave 4 is a bearish harmonic with D > 427.52. Based on previous FOMC they love to whipsaw and create escape velocity for the ever "unexpected" post-meeting rally, and with this structure they can whipsaw in a very organized manner.
Best to all,
Davy Jones