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EWT

Howl @ The MoonI posted a bullish idea for SPY (linked) where I did not go into detail about the wolfe wave - I am seeing major confluence with EWT, wolfe wave projection, bigger picture downtrend resistance, target via an indicator I love called "ADX Breakout", and time series forecast for both SPY and QQQ . There happens to be a full moon (a SuperMoon actually) on Tuesday Morning, June 14th, so if a Wolfe Wave gets us to intial target around that time that would be interesting. I'm not going to use any moon phase analysis here, but there is something about the moon that does in fact influence investor sentiment, albeit indirectly, though I am not expert on that subject. This post zooms in on the Bullish Wolfe Wave and is intended for both price action projection near term and education purposes (I don't see many posts covering wolfe waves though they can be $$$ in making seemingly contrarian calls, such as this). In my counts I am using <1,...,5> for the Wolfe Wave and conventional EWC (Elliot Wave count) based on the degree. Overview of Wolfe Wave (WW) : Occurance - An uptrend channel for a bearish Wolfe Wave - A downtrend channel for a bullish WolfeWave -Horizontal channels for consolidating price periods Rules Wave 3 and wave 4 remained in the channel created by waves 1 and 2. Wave 1 and Wave 2 are symmetrical with waves 3 and 4. Wave 5 goes above the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bearish pattern. Wave 5 goes below the trendline created by wave 1 and wave 3 for a bullish pattern. Regular timings between waves. It means that the time taken to complete one cycle for the waves 1-3-5 is equal. We can see in my chart that QQQ fits the bill here. There is a signal use to confirm wave <5> called "Wolfe Waves Signals " (Props to @NXT2017 for creating this wizard signal). I like it because it doesn't give frequent signals so when it occurs it is generally the real deal if the chart setup fits the bill. Confluence - EW intermediate count w(4) = WW <5>; projected w(5) aligns with the <1-4> projection at the expected time such that there is perfect symmetry with time between waves (see date ranges on chart). This sets up for an initial target of 317.90 by 6/13/2022 - EW primary count circle 3 aligns with the WW EPA @ ETA - EPA is the estimated price arrival, ETA is estimated time arrival and is established as the point in time where the WW support and resistance lines intersect. The level that these intersect is an equilibrium point where supply = demand; notice that E (expected <5>), w(4), and circle 2 all will occur right around this equilibrium level if we do in fact see a bounce from here and this plays out. This confluence gives us a Target of 341 by 6/29/2022 , and this is also the level of an "open long" target using ADX Breakout (not included here, there is already a lot going on didn't want to crowd the chart; also this target is at the 4H time frame, which actually makes sense with the time to target here). My time series ARIMA(0,1,0), p=0.23, upper 80%-95% PI for June 13 is 319.69 - 324.88 so the 317.90 initial target is reasonable, statistically. My upper 80-95% for June 27 is 334.90 - 348.14, so target of 341 is plausible as well. - The downtrend line through the 11/21/2021 high and the 3/29/2021 high is the red line visible in this chart... so for those that have doubts about WW or EWT you can think of this projection as merely a test of downtrend resistance, which is very plausible considering how much time we have spent down in the gutter attempting to end this corrective wave. The yellow path is illustrative, expecting an impulse from apprx. yesterday's low (i.e. <5> & (4) & circle 2 on chart) toward the initial target (i.e. (5) & <1-4> resistance). From there we will see an intermediate ABC corrective wave that will also serve the purpose of re-testing the WW upper channel to ensure old resistance has become support. After that I just drew a straight trajectory to the target at 341 (i.e. circle 3 & EPA @ ETA), however, this will either be a diagonal or an impulse - I'll update with expected levels is this plays out to intermediate (C). Sincerely, Not Jacob Black
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by JerryManders
1
Expanding Triangle - 520 breakout levelLRCX very bullish yet very volatile setup. I posted recently but have recognized my initial count was not correct. The correct count is the following: - LRCX is completing the final leg of an Expanding Triangle as the 5th wave of a larger Expanded Flat, which is the wave 4 of a larger motive sequence that started a decade ago off the low around 31.17. - the B wave of the Wave 4 expanded flat was its all time high of 731.85 in Jan 2022, which was a 1.418 extension of the A of EF (thus, the A of 4) - There are multiple indications that Friday May 20 was bottom (f leg of expanding triangle, c of v of C of 4): 1) pinbar candle on the daily chart 2) showed support at the A level around 450 and at the same time found support at the downtrend off the Jan high - the pinbar tail got bought up quick at that 450 3) 3 counts down off the e leg completed Friday May 20 - it is currently on second count of 3 up 4) the retracement of B of expanding flat showed equality with the previous extension at about 1.418 *Minimum target is the upper trendline of expanding triangle around 520 (should test that this week and attempt breakout) **Intermediate target if we get breakout is 548 *** Goal target is new All time high above 731 (estimating 786) to complete wave 5 of the bullish impulse by August-October of 2022. I will post a bigger picture view idea to reference for the overall counts, this idea was meant to focus on the zoomed in expanding triangle which indicates breakout is imminent. Interesting that breakout attempt is aligning time wise with NVDA earnings May 25. If they beat it would likely provide catalyst for the inductry to run and LRCX perfect setup to move big up. Best, A. Crawley
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by JerryManders
Supplement to previous idea - BullishHere is the bigger picture for LRCX, as referenced in previous post on expanding triangle. We are currently at the transition from f of C of 4 and for the reasons outlined in last idea it is likely that wave 5 of the larger impulse is about to begin (or began May 20), to summarize: - wave 4 was an expanded flat with an ending expanding triangle as the 5th wave of C ~1.418 retracement off B (the Jan highs, which was a 1.418 extension of A) - initial target is 522, which will be the breakout level from the expanding triangle (this attempt should unfold by end of this week in alignment with NVDA earnings. If it fails, it is likely to drop to lower support of expanded triangle around low-mid 430s; if breakout is successful it will continue to the following targets in route to complete 5th motive wave: *Intermediate target range 548-low 600s, point target 567 ** goal target range 732-786 (which will be wave 5, precise level tbd and will send update if we clear 522 and intermediate level is realized Catalyst = witchkraft
NASDAQ:LRCXLong
by JerryManders
A Clear Path from Here - organized whipsaw comingIf looking at this chart at a glance hurts your brain, no worries I will summarize for you below (I need these lines personally to make swing trade decisions but the concept is pretty simple). I am just using "1-5" rather than "I -V" but it is a smaller wave nothing major. Enough to tell us map of near-term price action going into FOMC): Bearish wave 3 was in at yesterdays low (just slighly over 1.618 of wave 1-2), wave 2 retraced just over 50% of wave . Now we are on wave 4. - Expected wave 4 target is 422.21 (0.382 of wave 3). Expecting to see this today actually before starting wave 5 *** IF SPY breaks above 427.52 the bearish count is invalidated (> 0.5 of wave 3). Bulls recently saw this happen back in mid April when the downside pressure invalidated their count at attempted wave 4, if you believe in paybacks don't close out all your calls just yet. Probability does not favor this, however) - Wave 5 could drop to a variable range based on the retracement variability of EWT for wave 5 (I don't make these rules), however, my point estimate is SPY 395.76 (Range 390-400, max extended range 378-411 - you might think that is quite a range but these are the mathematical limits). Point prediction: 420s today, 390s going into FOMC, start of major rally post-FOMC that will begin larger Wave 5 to mid 500s by end of year (below 350 invalidates a 13-year bullish structure prematurely so I would not bank on that if you respect probability). The initial target after the wave 5 at apprx. 395 confirms larger wave 4 correction is completed will be SPY 440s, of course we will have to update accordingly based on the realized levels traded. Possible setup that could invalidate wave 4 is a bearish harmonic with D > 427.52. Based on previous FOMC they love to whipsaw and create escape velocity for the ever "unexpected" post-meeting rally, and with this structure they can whipsaw in a very organized manner. Best to all, Davy Jones
AMEX:SPY
by JerryManders
Bullish Near term to 558-590Expectation is bullish until end of May, then bearish in June to complete corrective wave. Some confluence here using Elliot Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Gann: Primary EWT count gives recent completion of corrective A, next stop B. The details of this primary count are below: - Impulse began 9/24/2012 (not shown) at 31.17 - Wave 1 completed 3/12/2018 (not shown) at 234.88 - Wave 2 retraced 55% of wave 1 and completed 12/24/2018 (not shown) at 122.64 - Wave 3 was a 271% extension of wave 1 and completed 6/1/2021 (not shown) at 637.80 - Wave 4 retraced 25% of wave 3 and completed 10/18/2021 at 535.01 - Wave 5 was apprx = wave 1 (97%) and completed 1/3/2022 at ATH 731.85 - Wave A completed 4/25/2022 at 449.50 * Wave B will likely extend to 557.35 (0.382 of A), 590.68 (0.5 of A), or 624 (0.618 of A) ** Wave C will need an update given the realization of actual level for B, however, based on the confluence (provided below) it is likely wave C will complete around 416 (0.618 of A) coming off wave B at around 590 (Alt. ABC Count (not shown in chart) would indicate the ABC already completed at A = 466.06 on 3/14/2022, B = 574.79 on 3/28 2022, and C = 449.50 on 4/25/2022; however, the subdivision count for this alt wave C is not convincing and it is more likely that level is the A of the primary count) Confluence (supporting primary count): - Projected minor bearish harmonic to complete D at corrective wave B level - Projected major bullish Cypher (half shown, begins X in October 2021) will complete D at corrective wave C level - Descending Gann fan off the wave 5 (All time high) showing lessening capacity for price (change in price to downside) to keep up with time (i.e. 1/1 angle about to be penetrated in favor of testing the 2/1 resistance – which will suggest wave B occurring in the time frame of 5/13/2022 – early June 2022). The price would then likely drop to test the 1/1 angle by end of June 2022 to complete the C (if rejected at the 2/1, thus completing B) - Ascending Gann fan off the wave A swing low indicating price is staying in the upper section of fan and keeping up with time to the upside (exceeding it actually, which is bullish near term) - RSI showing bullish momentum to take the price to Wave B Not financial advice, but if you are curious how I am playing this: - May 20 505 calls, hedge with May 13 450 puts (3 calls: 1 put). Will take profits if RSI crosses bearish or if price reaches 550s - May 27 535 calls to let ride to potential wave B target of 590 - IF the near term bullish scenario plays out and those calls print I’ll be watching for price to drop below 507 and look to enter July 450 puts to play the drop to projected wave C in the lower 400s - Love this company, love how the LRCX calls and puts move. Ton of doe to be made leveraging these swings!! Sincerely, Severus Snape
NASDAQ:LRCX
by JerryManders
1
$PLANETS - Light at the end of the tunnel$PLANETS looks like its dying a slow death. But I don't think its the end. The project is beautiful and from an FA standpoint its just getting over a few road bumps with some of its sensor manufacturers. From a TA standpoint, it should curve over and form a bowl, then breakout at some point to make a new ATH buy the end of this cycle. I placed the waves as though the 1.618 retrace of wave 4 of C has wave 5 ending around 0.064. But its really hard to tell where it will go with no PA history like this.
PLong
by FlokiCrypto
$ADA - Are we done with this ABC ? So, this ABC could be done. or it could continue to .786 (around 0.67$). I'm actually quite impressed this coin didn't correct as much as the others...it could mean significant strength in the grand scheme of things. We had a good sign that the correction would take longer (not only for ADA but across the board when it broke the trend line that started in late 2020 and lasted all the way to late 2021. RSI support has been pretty good on the oversold limit since late last November. We've been creating some small divergences ever since. I do expect us to retest the bear trendline breakout sooner or later. Sooner means a higher low, later means a lower low and a new divergence, which should make the coin go on a long bullish run. Always keep an eye on $BTC and $BTC.D. Safe Trades.
Long
by FlokiCrypto
Your Bitcoin map aheadBitcoin has, together with a good amount of stocks around the world, taken a good beating over the last months. At the moment things are not looking good. But how likely is it to continue down? What are the risks and possibilities from now on? First of all, much of the current price has already priced in both the political uncertainties and the risks of a war breakout. This in combination with the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index which is again back to "extreme fear" do open up for the possibility of a near-by bottom. On the other hand, there are some technical levels that are very relevant to keep a close eye on and to be well aware of their potential effects. Two days ago Bitcoin got rejected from the downside of the lower bullish red RSI line. This, unfortunately, is a sign of particular weakness. It's what we typically refer to as a "bearish motorway", as an RSI that struggles to break above this level is a textbook example of inherently weak momentum. And while on the RSI, this whole downturn is confirmed by the bearish blue RSI channel at which the recent futile and pathetic attempt at breaking above the upper bearish blue line was immediately shot down. So far we do have a higher high and a higher low, albeit very marginally. If the pivot bottom here were to be taken out, however, there's a near 100% certainty that we'll retest the green key support zone. And it is here things begin to look gloomy. So far we've had no less than six tests of this support zone over the last year. And as many of you may already know, per classical technical analysis any support or resistance loses in strength every time it's being tested. But not only that: each time it's being tested it also musters up additional technical strength to be released once there's a breakout. Now, given that we've had six tests already, the impact upon a break thereof could prove dire. With that said, there's little reason to expect the price to break through right away. It's far more likely that we'll see a minor price bounce upon the next support zone test, either as a type of bear flag, or as a steeper little V-shaped pump to trick any unassuming bulls that the worst is over with. The real question at hand comes if or when we in fact break through. If the aforementioned scenario were to play out then we'd push through on the very eight attempt, thus having amassed enough technical power to cause some serious damage. The level that most people will have on their radar upon such a breakout is $27 000 as it coincides both with the long-standing diagonal support as well as the EMA200 on the weekly. But this is where things face a huge chance of turning into a leveling game of poker. This area is too obvious. If one too many people identify the same levels to go long, chances are it will fail badly. That's exactly what happened in early December last year at the $53 000 area, which was made up for an impossible-to-miss support cluster of technical goodies. And what happened after that? Well, the price plummeted by almost -20% in just a couple of days. This in combination with the pent up pressure from six support touches to date would rather unlikely let Bitcoin's price stop there. Instead, we'd more likely be looking at something like this: Such turn of events would scare off even the last die-hard perma bull and cause them to curse Bitcoin. That would be THE spot to buy - one that could pave the way for a sharp V-shaped correction to initiate the primary 5th wave of the secular 5th wave. In this sense, as long as the 4th wave doesn't take out the 2nd wave top at ~$13 700 (give or take depending on what chart you use) then the 5-wave impulse would still be intact. Long term I still remain very bullish. Having said that, I neither want to part-take in shaky times like these when the momentum is weak and there's room for another further 60 percent downside. Given that this pivotal level of $13 700 holds up, chances strongly favor strong 6-figure Bitcoins before this secular cycle comes to halt. If, on the other hand, that specific level were to be taken out, you can bet your bottom dollar that we're either in for some continued and depressed sideways movements, or that the $65 000 and $68 000 peaks in fact was a first-of-its-kind primary double top. //Long Life Trading
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by LongLifeTrading