Opened (IRA): EWW Oct 18th 50 Monied Covered Call... for a 49.02 debit.
Comments: Selling the -75 call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. The IV isn't fantastic here at 29.8%, but the ROC is kind of what I'm minimally looking for out of this sort of play, so putting on a small position here, particularly since the underlying isn't all that far off its 52-week low.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 49.02
Max Profit: .98
ROC at Max: 2.0%
50% Max: .49
ROC at 50% max: 1.0%
Generally, will look to take profit at 50% max, roll short call for duration and credit on side test.
EWW
E7 CountriesI’d like an ETF for E7 Countries, holding their ETFs (Brazil EWZ; China MCHI; India INDA; Indonesia EIDO; Mexico EWW; Russia ERUS; Turquia TUR).
Theses countries has been more GDP upside than the G7 Countries. An this must go on.
*** The Russia ETD was excluded for the “index” because it isn’t been working on.
I’ll include the ETF ERUS after the war.
Select Emerging Markets down frm Jan 2021, not like IXIC mid FebSelect Emerging Market ETFs (U.S. listed in $USD) falling since Jan 2021, not like the IXIC (Nasdaq Composite Index) only since mid Feb: Russia RSX, Brazil EWZ, Mexico EWW, South Korea EWY, Thailand THD, New Zealand (ENZL - small market, not emerging market).
OPENING: EWW SEPTEMBER 18TH 32/33 SKINNY SHORT STRANGLE... for a 2.44/contract credit.
Notes: With price trading in between the 32 and 33 strikes, went skinny short strangle in lieu of short straddle. Since it's almost a straddle, I'll look to take profit at 25% max.
I've gone ahead and shown defined risk wings for an iron fly/skinny iron condor setup on the chart -- the September 18th 28/32/33/37, which was paying 1.97 as of the writing of this post, just short of the one-half the width of the wings I look for out of an iron fly (i.e., this would be a four-wide iron fly, so would ideally look for around 2.00 in credit out of it).
OPENING: EWW AUGUST 21ST 32/33/35 BIG JL... for a 2.17 credit.
Notes: Relatively high rank/implied for an exchange-traded fund at 40/38. This isn't quite a Big Jade Lizard, which usually consists of an at-the-money short straddle with a long call, but it's trading between the strikes, so opened it up to a skinny at 32/33. No upside risk, since the total credit receives exceeds the width of the short call vertical at 33/35 by .17. Will look to take profit at 25% max (.54).
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBBY EARNINGS; XOP, XLE, EWW PREMIUM SELLINGEARNINGS:
Next week's earnings announcements are light, with options liquid underlying to play for volatility contract even lighter.
BBBY (52/119/18.8%*) announces on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of Wednesday's session. Pictured here is a July 17th (12 days) 11 short straddle, paying 2.03 as of Friday close, 18.8% of where the stock was trading at 10.81. Look to take profit at 25% max or otherwise manage the trade by rolling out to August if it doesn't work out fairly immediately.
DAL (43/89/12.3%*) also announces this week on Thursday. A July setup isn't paying much, so I'd be inclined to go out to August to make it more compelling, where the 23/36 short strangle paid 1.83 as of Friday close.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK/PERCENTILE AND SCREENED FOR >35% IMPLIED:
EWW (37/37/15.0%**)
EWZ (37/56/10.5%)
GDXJ (34/53/14.6%)
XLE (33/45/14.6%)
GDX (28/39/12.7%)
XOP (22/57/16.3%)
USO (9/51/13.2%)
The most bang for your buying power buck appears to lie in XOP, followed by EWW, XLE, and GDXJ.
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (41/36/10.0%)
IWM is the only broad market exchange-traded fund where the background implied remains greater than 35.
IRA DIVIDEND GENERATORS:
EWZ (37/56/10.5%)
... and EWZ the only dividend generator with a 30-day greater than 35.
* * *
Broad market volatility has come in quite a bit here, but SPY 30-day implied at 27.2% isn't exactly a "low volatility environment" either. Nevertheless, it's not a bad thing to sit back, let powder dry out a little bit in preparation for the next volatility wave and/or more productive earnings announcements, particularly with underlyings like NFLX, MSFT, and IBM announcing next week, along with a number of financials: C (36/55), WFC (45/54), BAC (33/48), JPM (32/43), MS (30/45), and GS (27/41).
* -- Percentage of stock price the July 17th short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
** -- Percentage of stock price the August 21st short straddle was paying as of Friday close.
USD MXN, is the Peso tank over?A lot of foreign ETFs have yet to recover because of currency trade (EWW, EWZ, TUR, etc), when the currency bounces back, you'll see huge moves in those ETFs. Might be a better opportunity than trying to chase after US equities.
We'll see...
I've always been more fond of trading foreign ETF options than US index ETF options, I find the returns better on both calls and puts.
THE WEEK AHEAD: AMD, TWTR, FB EARNINGS; SLV, GDX, GDXJ; EWWEARNINGS:
There are a ton of earnings coming out next week, with the most options liquid plays to be had in AMD (44/71), TWTR (77/80), and FB (59/50).
Pictured here is a delta neutral short strangle in AMD in the June cycle (54 days). Camped out around the 20 delta strikes, it paid 3.12 as of Friday close (5.6% as a function of share price) with break evens at 42.88/73.12. Go defined risk with a five-wide iron condor in the same cycle -- the 42/47/70/75, and you'll get paid 1.48, 29.6% return on capital at max, 14.8% at 50%.
A TWTR June 19th 24/36 short strangle paid 1.83 (6.4% as a function of share price) as of the Friday close; the FB June 19th 165/220, 7.07 (3.7% as a function of share price). Consequently, if you're looking for "buck bang" as a function of share price, your best best is going with the TWTR play, with its higher 30-day.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK:
SLV (83/51)
GDXJ (72/79)
GDX (64/63)
EWW (61/60)
XLU (60/40)
EWZ (57/72)
XLE (55/66)
SMH (46/46)
XOP (42/81)
USO (33/192)
USO is going to be undergoing a 1:8 reverse split after the close of markets on April 28th, so you may want to steer clear of entering an options play before then and/or close out any options plays you've got on here to avoid being stuck with nonstandards post-split. As if it wasn't apparent, the juice is in precious metals/miners (SLV, GDX/GDXJ) and oil-related exchange-traded funds (XOP, XLE, USO), with some secondary squeezings to be had out of Mexico (EWW), Brazil (EWZ), and semicons (SMH).
With respect to EWW and EWZ, I considered each for a potential IRA trade, since both pay dividends, although they're only twice a year and somewhat "uneven." (EWW yield shows as 4.93%; EWZ as 5.44%). The EWW June 19th 22 was paying .78 as of Friday close (3.7% return on capital at max), the EWZ June 19th 18, .96 (5.6% return on capital at max), so may consider doing one or the other as a potential aquisitional play.
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK:
TQQQ (60/111)
IWM (56/45)
EEM (46/39)
QQQ (43/36)
SPY (39/35)
FUTURES WITH 30-DAY >35% ORDERED BY RANK:
/NG (98/95)
/SI (83/500
/RTY (56/55
/NQ (43/36)
/ZC (43/36)
/ES (39/36)
/CL (33/948)
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
VIX finished the week at 35.93, well in "high volatility" territory. However, the May and June contracts (36.95 and 35.70, respectively), finished in contango (it's been a while), with the rest of the term structure in backwardation.
Mexican Pennant (EWW)Looks to me like it's gotta break out sooner or later, one of few world indices not to bounce (mainly because of oil prices). Dipped into some calls Friday, but we may have to wait another week before it breaks out... we'll see.
If oil goes up, so will Mexico and Brazil (EWZ) for sure.
THE WEEK AHEAD: USO/XLE/XOP, EWW, XLUEXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK:
USO 67/167
EWW 57/73
XLE 57/87
XLU 57/53
GLD 51/32
EWZ 50/85
XOP 49/105
SMH 47/58
GDXJ 44/86
XLF 41/53
FXI 32/39
GDX 31/66
TLT 30/25
BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK:
IWM 59/60
EEM 46/49
SPY 47/58
QQQ 46/44
EFA 39/45
FUTURES ORDERED BY IMPLIED VOLATILITY RANK:
/NG 72/67
/CL 67/157
/GC 51/31
/ZS 51/19
/ES 47/56
/SI 41/51
/ZW 40/32
/ZC 29/27
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES
VIX finished the week at 46.80 with the entire /VX term structure in backwardation.
MUSINGS:
Shown here is an EWW short put in the May cycle paying 1.00. Camped out at the 23 delta strike, it has a break even of 22.00 and has a 4.54% return on capital in a cash secured environment. Alternatively, the May 15th 22/29 short strangle is paying 1.54 at the mid.
* * *
Long /CL at $20/barrel via out-the-money short puts or short put verticals may turn out to be the "trade of the year" after (in my case) being taken to the wood shed playing it non-directionally/rangebound between 52 and 63. Only time will tell; it's come up substantially off its lows already with it remaining to be seen whether OPEC+ can get its shit together and quit with the self-harm.
* * *
In the IRA, it looks to be touch and go for acquiring stuff on my shopping list. (See Posts, below). I've stuck my lines in the water; the best I can hope for is to get some bites at April opex. If I don't get assigned, I'll re-up with a rung to replace any expiring worthless if the market stays down here. Simultaneously, I'm looking to exit my TLT position, which has a cost basis of below $110/share, thinking that the capital can be better deployed elsewhere, but don't want to do that if I don't pick any other dividend-generating underlyings to replace it. Looked at from that perspective, my "personal" yield on the TLT position in light of my particular cost basis is 2.98/$110 or about 2.71%, which isn't horrible.
EWW Mexican BreakoutGot into this this morning after the Trump news, chart pattern looks good for a breakout (along with a bunch of other stocks).
EWW has low options premium and good liquidity, you guys know this isn't the first time I've played with this. I get better returns than playing with SPY, DIA, or IWM options.
OPENING (IRA): EWW DEC 20TH 39 SHORT PUT... for a .57/contract credit.
Notes: One of the ex. U.S./Canada exchange-traded funds I looked at over the weekend with a yield that exceeds both TLT and U.S. broad market. Selling the 20 delta or so here, looking to acquire at a discount over where the underlying is currently trading. Cost basis of 38.43 if assigned; otherwise, I keep the premium ... .
THE MONTH AHEAD (IRA): EX. CANADA/U.S. ETF'S FOR DIVIDENDSIt shouldn't come as a massive shocker to anyone that the U.S. market has been and has gotten even more expensive. For an investor that is just starting out, it is enormously frustrating, since virtually everything is at the top of a very long term trajectory with the broad market yet again knocking at the door of all-time-highs.
Here are a few acquisition ideas for ex. U.S./Canada exchange-traded funds that pay in excess of SPY (1.90%), IWM (1.33%), QQQ (.84%), and DIA (2.21%) and TLT (average 20-year maturity treasuries) (2.22%). To put things in some additional context: HYG (High Yield Corporate Bonds) is paying 5.29% (paid monthly), EMB (Emerging Market Bonds) -- 5.45%, XLU (Utilities) -- 2.93% (paid quarterly), and IYR (REIT) -- 2.63%.*
EEM: Emerging Market. It gets huge volume (79 million 90-day) and is extremely liquid on the options side of things. The downside is that you get about TLT is currently paying in yield -- 2.22%, paid out quarterly, and fund managers had to muck it up by sticking a whole bunch of China in there. If I wanted to play a Chinese exchange-traded fund, I'd play one (e.g., FXI).
EFA: Behind the funky acronym (MSCI EAFE), this is basically a world excluding the U.S. and Canada exchange-traded fund. Sporting a 3.18% yield, it pays dividends every six months, trades healthy share volume (90-day average 18.3 million), and has good options expiry availability and liquidity, a must for investors looking to go short put/acquire/cover.
EWA: Australia. Granted, the share volume isn't great (1.7 million 90-day), but the yield is 5.54%. Expiry availability isn't fantastic and neither is option liquidity. Dividends pay out twice a year. 21.82/share as of Friday close.
EWG: Germany. 90-day 1.98 million shares average. 2.83% paid once a year. Decent expiry availability/liquidity. 26.44/share as of Friday close.
EWI: Italy. 90-day 1.90 million shares on average. 4.63% paid out once every six months. Expiry availability/liquidity isn't great, with the general solution being to be "fill picky." 26.95 as of Friday close.
EWW: Mexico. 90-day 3.20 million shares traded on average. 4.17% paid out twice a year. Good expiry availability and option liquidity. 43.64 as of Friday close.
EWT: Taiwan. 90-day 5.80 million shares traded. 2.74% paid out once a year. Expiry availability isn't great and neither is options liquidity. 36.71 as of Friday close.
EWZ: Brazil. 90-day 21.58 million shares traded. 2.71% paid out every six months. Excellent expiry availability/options liquidity. 42.11 as of Friday close.
RSX: Russia. 90-day 5.58 million shares traded. 4.31% yield paid out once a year. Expiry availability/options liquidity decent and decent. 22.51 as of Friday close.
The general play on these would be short put, acquire, then cover. Naturally, you'll probably want to drill into the charts on each of these to determine which ones might be trading at a discount.
* -- IYR, XLU, and EMB have ripped higher recently, so are kind of out of range of prices at which I'd like to acquire. Forever the optimist, however, I've got a couple "not a penny more" short puts hanging out there in XLU and HYG. (See Posts Below).
Trade war opens opportunity in Mexico (EWW)Mexico is relatively cheap compared to other emerging market stock exchanges. In addition, I agree with several analysts that Mexico could be the winner of the trade war between USA and China.
My investment strategy indicated a buy signal for EWW on May 21, with a target price of ~48 USD/share (expected profit of ~7.5%).