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EWZ

HOUSEKEEPING: EWZ APRIL 15TH 18.5/22/22/25.5 IRON FLYWith the short put side of my EWZ iron fly nearing worthless (<.10/<$10), I'll be looking to close that out tomorrow (I neglected to notice it today, my usual "housekeeping" day where I clean up trades). Although the short call side at 22/25.5 still has 18 DTE to "work out," I think that is unlikely, so I'll look at rolling that side out for duration a modest improvement of the short put strike. I usually tackle any strike improvement incrementally, rolling out another 30-45 days, improve the spread by at least one strike, see what happens, roll again if it hasn't moved in my favor (lather, rinse, repeat). Fortunately, the implied volatility in EWZ remains high here, so I have a shot a getting an additional dose of premium ... .
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD -- FOMC, FOMC, FOMC; LONG VIX; OIL; EARNINGSHere's what I'm looking at for next week: VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will want to use VIX, VIX, or UVXY to go "long volatility." Index ETF's . There is little sense in selling April expiry premium here in broader index instruments with VIX the way it is. Brazil, oil/gas, and the gold space continue to have the volatility, but I'm already in all of the underlyings that have any juice in their options that are at 70+ implied volatility rank (UNG (covered call), EWZ (iron fly), GDXJ (short strangle), RIG (short strangle), GLD (credit spread), and XOP (short strangle) in those sectors. If you look at SPY implied volatility month-to-month, it doesn't approach something "regular" until the June expiry (19.9%), so I may look to set up some small premium selling play in the June expiry on the possibility that low volatility sticks around for a period of time and to have something in the queue for that event. Trying to sell 45 DTE premium in the index ETF's in a period like we had last year between mid-March and late August was a total slog ... . Oil . The 2016 high was set on 1/4 at 35.36 in USOIL. it tested the underside of that level Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week and broke through it by a whopping .20 cents on Friday, so who knows whether that'll hold. If oil caves, the S&P will follow hard (the S&P currently has a .93 correlation with USOIL). However, oil has a tendency to enter fairly lengthy consolidative periods before moving directionally forward, so be prepared for oil to taunt you with both suggestions that it's going to break significantly higher and indications that it's going to totally implode ... . If you're into trading spot forex, watch oil's effect on the petro currency USDCAD. The Loonie may get a double whammy from a cave in oil plus Fed tightening/dovish-hawkishness. The Loonie's entire strength profile from 2/11 is largely on the back of oil. EURUSD. This is the strong/weak pair to watch post-Draghi and running up into FOMC. For me, this is not a pair I would mess around with "playing in the middle" between 1.08 and 1.10. As I did last year, I would wait for it to hit 1.14 and then go short if it's inclined to react to the upside on whatever FOMC says; otherwise, stay out. The fundamentals on this pair should be telling everyone to only short on strength (ECB easing; Fed tightening), as attempting to play the 200 pips between 1.08 and 1.10 has been and is likely to continue to be somewhat discouraging as it looks to find its footing in the larger range between 1.14 and near parity. EARNINGS. Although the earnings season has been described as "over" for this quarter, there are a few issues that are still due to report that might be worth playing, assuming that the volatility is there: ORCL (Tuesday, after close), FDX (Wednesday after close), and ADBE (Thursday, after market close). As it stands right now, none of those meet my implied volatility rank rules (70th percentile plus), with all three of those having percentiles hovering around 50, but naturally that might change running up into the actual announcement.
FX:USOIL
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD -- "LESS THAN SEXY" FOR PREMIUM SELLINGWith the VIX finishing the week out at 16.66, next week is setting itself up to be a less than sexy week for premium selling, particularly in broader market instruments like SPY, IWM, QQQ, and DIA. Moving to other sectors, the Brazil ETF, EWZ continues to be hot premium selling wise, with an implied volatility rank of 72. A couple of issues in the oil and gas space follow closely behind in the 70+ club (UNG (implied vol rank 72); RIG (71)); with several gold plays remaining in the 60s (GDXJ, GDX, GG). From there, volatility in individual underlyings and/or ETF's slips off somewhat dramatically, with only a few in the 50-60 range (X at 57; ORCL, 57 (one of this season's last earnings plays); CAT, 55 (earnings afterglo vol); and GLD, 52; with the remainder of most highly liquid, options playable issues slipping below 50 thereafter. Given the fact that I'm in a gold play, in EWZ, and have exposure to oil, I don't see myself putting on a heckuvalot of new trades next week. That's not all bad; these little volatility lulls make for a good time to do housekeeping on the various messes I created during the last volatility wave, clean up the earnings plays that didn't work out this past season, and/or dry out powder for the next volatility spike or whatever comes next ... . Naturally, should VIX spike to plus 25, I'll be right back in it with some new plays to take advantage of that. In the meantime, a cleaning of my trading "garage"/"basement"/"backyard" is overdue. It ain't sexy, but it's gotta be done some time.
CBOE:VIX
by NaughtyPines
EWZ -- APRIL 15TH 18.5/22/22/25.5 IRON FLYWith volatility ebbing out of the broader markets and earnings season, for all practical purposes, over, I'm looking to put on some small, defined risk, premium selling plays in April while the remainder of my March setups work themselves out. With an implied volatility rank at 60 and an implied volatility of 48, EWZ isn't the greatest play in the world for premium selling, but it is an ETF. They're less volatile than individual underlyings as a general matter, so I lower my premium selling standards accordingly. There are a couple of different ways that you can look at an iron fly: (1) it's a defined risk short straddle; or (2) it's a really tight iron condor. I tend to treat them as "defined risk short straddles," because I manage short straddles differently from short strangles (an iron condor is basically a defined risk short strangle). With short strangles and iron condors, I look to take the whole trade off as a unit at 50% max profit. Short strangles and iron flies are a different story. If you look at the metrics for this particular trade, the break evens are quite tight: 19.92 and 24.08 -- much tighter than they would be for a short strangle or iron condor setup, and there is virtual certainty that one side or the other will be tested sometime during the trade since the short options are basically at or near current price. As with all premium selling plays, though, you're looking for volatility to contract rolling into expiry, and you can profit from this circumstance even when -- with iron flies or short straddles -- price has broken one of the short strikes of your setup (but not the long side). As always, there are trade offs with the setup: max profit is a 2.08 credit ($208/contract; BPE $142/contract). I couldn't get near that much credit if I went with a standard iron condor (an April 15 15.5/18.5/25.5/28.5 iron condor will rake in a whopping .41 in credit at the expense of a BPE of $259/contract). Because of this trade off and the fact that the probability of profit for an iron fly is basically a coin flip as compared to the iron condor's 70-75% probability of profit, I'll look to take this setup off at 25% max profit instead of the usual 50%. Naturally, this isn't my preferred way of doing things. However, with underlyings below $50/share, you generally cannot take in enough premium if you're going with a defined risk arrangement to make it worthwhile unless you tighten your iron condor or go the "defined risk short straddle" or iron fly.
AMEX:EWZ
by NaughtyPines
6
Long call trade: EWZ - Yacine Kanoun inspiredYacine Kanoun brought this stock to my attention. I'm considering purchasing calls with a strike price of 40usd and an expiration date on March 6th. The spread between USDBRL and EWZ is reaching similar percentages to what has show in the past, so I think that it's due for an adjustment, and thus agree with Yacine. I also spotted a technical key level, which I want to see the stock avoid to retest during the next week, for a time at mode buy setup to confirm. My own indicator displaying bands shows price reached an extreme low, and so does rgmov. The retest of the supply area seen in the last high, but on lower volume is a bullish signal as well. Remember to risk less than 5% on each trade, in this case, I'm considering a 1.5-3% risk. Good luck!
AMEX:EWZLong
by IvanLabrie
10
Premature enormous potential in Brazil Will be monitoring $EWZ over the next few weeks to see if this 3.5 year shit show is turning a new leaf with the recent break of a major downtrend line (2 variations drawn) on a positive divergence in RSI, and a slowly uptrending MACD that crossed the zero line and is at levels not seen since early 2012. The downtrend line of momentum on a weekly relative basis vs. the S&P has also been captured while putting in a higher low. While things are definitely looking interesting, I would want to see the downtrend line from early 2008 as well as the 200 day moving average captured before going long.
AMEX:EWZ
by Nick_C_
World Cup's Winning Trade On Brazil's EWZ Millions of soccer fans around the world await the most important global sporting event, the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Many media outlets have already started to hype different stocks, as well as statistics about the event. This brings about a question for us traders, who is going to win and how can we profit? As technical traders, who study and trade from the charts, we are one step ahead of the news, and possibly even the game! With that in mind, lets look to the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWZ) to help us pick the winning nation by analyzing the chart. We can clearly see the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:EWZ) is retesting a major trendline break out, with the 200 day moving average just below the trendline. This could serve as minor short term support. However, the chart has begun to consolidate right at the line, without getting any significant bounce, as of now. The longer price remains around this level, the more likely the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSEARCA:EWZ) are to break down. If this trendline is broken the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF)(NYSEARCA:EWZ) will fall quickly. A major support level where the shares will find buyers is $42.49. If the level mentioned ($42.49) happens to be hit towards the end of the World Cup, and Brazil is still in the tournament, then the EWZ will rally (among other factors) in part as a result of Brazil winning the 2014 FIFA World Cup from this level of support. That is my prediction based on the charts... please feel free to comment and make your own predictions, let us know if another chart is telling you who will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup! I would love to hear your thoughts, feel free to comment on our google+ page, our facebook fan page or tweet at me. As always, myself and the other Pro Traders of the Elite Round Table will be providing our members with the detailed trades, live when they happen... join us now! Kiliam Lopez Elite Round Table, Pro Trader Tweet at me @kiliamLopez
AMEX:EWZ
by KiliamL