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Excavo

Trading Minest. Welcome to the most difficult game in the worldUnfortunately, you will be playing against some of the sharpest, fastest, smartest, most intelligent, well-informed, irrational, and, in many cases, unethical intellects in the world. You are fighting a computer that reacts faster than you. A trader who has more experience than you. A fund that has more money than you. An insider who has more information than you. Others who misinform you. An inner voice that will do everything it can to stop you. So, give up your dreams of making a quick and easy buck. Your first goal is survival. Your first absolute goal is to learn how to stay in the game. You can only do this by marking your territory. By understanding how the competition thinks and acts. By having a clear game plan. And by choosing your attacks very, very carefully. I've been sharing my knowledge on TradingView for years, but I'm sure this post will help you, too. I want to talk about Trading Minest. After I set up a trading firm, I realized that this is the knowledge that most traders lack. 1. Survive at all costs The higher your survival rate, the better trader you'll be. If you disagree with that, you better give your money to me. You don't have a survival instinct. A strong survival instinct is an essential personal quality you must possess. It teaches you to jump out of losing deals and hold on to winning ones with a dead grip. That's what your inner attitude should be. It's essential because trading is all about survival. It's also the essence of our lives. 2. You must be constantly afraid You have to evaluate the opponent. If he is a stone, be water; if he is water, I will be a stone. Maximize objective assessment of your opponent and adapt to him, but most people lack enough fear. And if we don't have fear, we can open any trade. And we won't use stop losses. We're gonna do everything wrong. And lose. I want you to be afraid. Example: If you are not afraid to lose, and we have the same trade, who will choose the more defensive tactic? Whoever thinks I'm not afraid of all this nonsense, I have plenty of money. With that attitude, you will lose. But if I am scared to death, I will use stops, watch what is happening in the market, and calculate my actions. But if a person has no fear, he will act recklessly, and then all of a sudden, bam, bam, and disaster will happen. Many traders have lost money and committed suicide because they had no fear. 3.The ability to win when things aren't going well for you The most essential quality of an athlete is the ability to score points when they need to catch up. You should be able to win when you fall behind or have four losing trades; that is the difference between good traders and bad traders. You say to yourself, "I'm behind; I'm not doing well." And you have a choice to throw up the white flag and give up. Or you can say, "To hell with it. I'm just gonna grit my teeth and get back in the ring and give it my best." That's what your inner attitude should be. You have to be able to win when you're behind. You have to learn how to win when you're in a losing position. That's how you have to set yourself up. Otherwise, you will be in big trouble because no one can avoid losses in market trading. And at some point, you are guaranteed to have a losing trade. Only optimists can trade. You're all so damn optimistic. Because you think you can win a game, many people believe it's impossible. Many people say how much they lost in the market, but if they failed, someone made millions of dollars every year waiting for me to take money from the dealing. You're donating money to people who don't know the basic rules. 4. Use only proven methods Do what works and don't do what doesn't work. Reinforce the strong. Best Regards, EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
18
GOLD - XAUUSDLocally, the XAUUSD price broke through the downtrend lines. Now we are near the first resistance of 1900. The next liquidity level is near 1950. Many experts believe that the price will move sideways until geopolitical tensions subside or until the FED raises interest rates. However, even if rates start to rise with high inflation - the real interest rates are likely to be negative. Therefore, they believe that gold will remain attractive as a defensive asset. Rising gold = a traditional harbinger of crises and slight shocks in the stock and crypto markets. Gold is an excellent choice for those who don't particularly want to go into cash inflation but don't want to be present in dive markets. Best regards, EXCAVO
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by EXCAVO
25
Vanguard - “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith” John BogleIf anyone ever thought of erecting a monument to the person who did the most for American investors — the choice would fall on John Bogle. These words are not from a promotional brochure but a quote from Warren Buffett himself. Book summary But most people don’t even know who Bogle is. And certainly don’t realize that he didn’t just “create index funds.” He built an invulnerable power machine disguised as client care. 📈 From a thesis to $10 trillion under management Bogle’s story begins with an ordinary guy born during the Great Depression. Through poverty, scholarship-based education, and working from age 10 — he makes his way into Princeton, where he writes a thesis on a topic that would change the industry: "mutual funds." Over the years, his philosophy turned into what we now know as "passive investing." From day one, the Vanguard he created operated on the principle: "maximum benefit to the investor, minimum — to the managers." No fees, no speculation, no marketing. And it worked. But here’s the paradox: ▶ Vanguard gave up profit for the mission. ▶ The world responded — investors were tired of the noise. ▶ As a result — "Vanguard grew into a monster capable of managing the economies of entire nations." 🧠 A revolutionary idea: a fund owned by investors Bogle built a structure where "the fund owners are the investors themselves." Sounds beautiful: no shareholders, no profit pressure — only long-term client interests. But then who de facto manages these trillions? ⚠️ Vanguard is not a public company. ⚠️ Its shares are not traded. ⚠️ The real ownership mechanism — a black box. It’s the perfect system for... "invisible control." And this isn’t a conspiracy theory, but logic: If you can’t find the ultimate beneficiary — it means they’re either too big, or hiding for a reason. 🕸️ The “Big Three” and the invisible hand effect Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street — three funds that hold between 3% to 8% of shares in most of the world’s largest corporations. It seems small, but only 15–20% of shares are in free float. ❗ This gives the Big Three “real power”: from voting at meetings to influencing media narratives and climate policy. 📌 They own stakes in CNN, Fox, and Disney. 📌 Invest in oil companies that violate human rights. 📌 And at the same time — push the “green transition” agenda. Conflict of interest? No. It’s “total control over both sides of the conflict.” 🤫 Why Vanguard is impossible to destroy If you think Vanguard is just an investment fund, here are a few facts: 🔒 No company shares → can’t buy a controlling stake. 🔒 Over 400 legal entities → can’t file a single lawsuit. 🔒 Every investor essentially becomes a “co-owner” → responsibility is blurred. 🔒 All stakes split below 10% → bypass antitrust laws. You can’t sue a ghost. You can’t attack a network if you don’t know where its center is. 🧭 What’s next? Today, Vanguard manages over $10 trillion, which is more than the GDP of Germany, India, and Brazil combined. Though the fund’s founder passed away as “the conscience of Wall Street,” his creation became an "architecture of global control" that even the U.S. Federal Reserve couldn’t handle. 🎤 “We are the invisible hand of Adam Smith,” John Bogle once said. A more detailed book review will follow below. I understand how important this is in our time and I appreciate it. 📘 General Concept of the Book: The book is at once the autobiography of John Bogle, the story of the founding and development of Vanguard, and a manifesto of index investing philosophy. A runaway waiter, Princeton graduate, and "Wall Street rebel," Bogle creates Vanguard — a company that changed the investment world by making it more fair and accessible. 📑 Structure of the Book: The book is divided into four parts: Part I — The History of Vanguard. Part II — The Evolution of Key Funds. Part III — The Future of Investment Management. Part IV — Personal Reflections, Philosophy, and Values of the Author. 💡 Key Ideas of the Book (Introductory Chapters, Preface): - Index investing is the most important financial innovation of the 20th century. - Passive management beats active managers in returns and costs. - Vanguard’s mission is not to make money off investors, but to serve them. - Criticism of Wall Street: high fees, conflicts of interest, short-term thinking. - Financial revolution — a mass shift of investors from active to index funds. 🧠 Bogle's Values: - Long-term thinking. Don’t give in to market “noise.” - Honesty and transparency in investing. - Minimal costs = maximum return for the investor. - Fiduciary duty: protecting the client’s interest comes first. 📗 Part I: The History of Vanguard 🔹 Chapter 1: 1974 — The Prophecy Context: John Bogle is in a difficult position — he’s fired as head of Wellington Management Company. During a trip to Los Angeles, he meets John Lovelace of American Funds, who warns: if you create a truly mutual investment company, you’ll destroy the industry. Main Idea: ⚡ Bogle decides to go against the profit-driven industry and creates Vanguard — a company owned by investors, not managers. Key Moments: - Vanguard is founded in 1974 — in the middle of a crisis. - The company has no external shareholders — all “profits” are returned to investors through lower fees. - In 1975, the first index fund for individual investors is launched — a revolutionary idea, initially ridiculed as “Bogle’s madness.” Important Quotes: "Gross return before costs is market return. Net return after costs is lower. Therefore, to get the maximum, you must minimize costs." – Bogle’s fundamental rule 🔹 Chapter 2: 1945–1965 — Background: Blair Academy, Princeton, Fortune, and Wellington Early Life: Bogle studies at Blair Academy on a scholarship, works as a waiter. He enters Princeton. Struggles with his economics course, but… In the library, he accidentally finds the Fortune article “Big Money in Boston” — about mutual funds. Turning Point: This article inspires Bogle to write his thesis: “The Economic Role of the Investment Company”, where he argues: - Funds should work for investors; - Don’t expect them to beat the market; - Costs must be minimized; - Fund structure must be fair and transparent. Career Start: Work at Wellington Management (Philadelphia). Starts from scratch, rising from junior analyst to president of the company. Under Walter Morgan’s leadership, he learns the principles of discipline and serving investors. ✍️ Interim Summary What’s important from these early chapters: - Vanguard was born from the ruins of Bogle’s former career — an example of how failure can be the beginning of greatness. - Already in college, Bogle saw the issue of conflicts of interest in the industry. - His philosophy is idealism in action: don’t play guessing games — just invest in the market and reduce costs. 📘 Chapter 3: 1965–1974 — Rise and Fall 🚀 Appointed President of Wellington Management: In 1965, at just 35 years old, John Bogle becomes president of Wellington. He decides to modernize the business and bring in young star managers from Wall Street, especially from the firm Thorndike, Doran, Paine & Lewis. ⚠️ Risky Alliance: Bogle makes a fatal mistake — he merges with the new management company without ensuring value alignment. The new partners are focused on profit and short-term gains, not building a strong long-term foundation. This leads to internal conflict, loss of trust, and poor fund performance. 💥 Dismissal: In 1974, after a series of conflicts, the board removes Bogle. He loses control of the company he built for nearly 25 years. Bogle’s comment: "I was fired, but I was still chairman of the Wellington mutual funds — and that turned out to be a lifeline." 📘 Chapter 4: 1974–1975 — The Birth of Vanguard 🧩 A Unique Legal Loophole: Though Bogle was fired from the management company, he remained head of the Wellington Fund trustees — giving him the opportunity to build a new independent structure. 🛠 Creating Vanguard: In December 1974, he launches The Vanguard Group — a company owned by the investors (shareholders) themselves. Model: the fund belongs to the investors → the fund owns the management company → no outside profit, only cost recovery. ⚙️ "Vanguard" as a Symbol: The name was inspired by Admiral Horatio Nelson’s ship — HMS Vanguard. A symbol of leadership, courage, and moving against the tide. Key Idea: Vanguard would be the only truly mutual investment organization — a model where clients = owners. 📘 Chapter 5: 1975 — The First Index Fund 🤯 Revolution: The Indexing Approach Bogle decides to create the first index mutual fund for retail investors. Name: First Index Investment Trust (later — Vanguard 500 Index Fund). Idea: invest in all S&P 500 stocks to reflect the market’s return instead of trying to beat it. 🪓 A Blow to the Industry: The financial world reacts harshly: - “Bogle’s madness”; - “This is a failure”; - “Who would want to just match the market?” 🔧 Humble Beginning: The goal was to raise $150 million, but only $11 million was collected — tiny by industry standards. But Bogle didn’t give up: "It was a small step, but with a powerful message." 💡 Summary of Chapters 3–5: How Vanguard Was Built 🔑 Event 💬 Meaning Loss of control at Wellington ----- Collapse of the old model, beginning of a new path Creation of Vanguard------------- Innovative, investor-first structure Launch of index fund--------------Start of the indexing revolution, Bogle’s core philosophy 📝 Quotes for Thought: "All I did was apply common sense. I just said: Let’s leave the returns to the investors, not the managers." — John Bogle "This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for. Lower costs = better results." — Bogle’s favorite saying, debunking “more is better” 📘 Chapter 6: 1976–1981 — The Survival Period ⏳ Tough Start: After launching the index fund, Vanguard faces slow growth and constant skepticism. For 83 straight months (nearly 7 years!), Vanguard sees net outflows — investors are hesitant to trust this new model. 🧱 Laying the Foundation: Bogle and his team focus on: - Transparency - Lowering costs - Investor education (they explain what it means to “stay the course”) 💬 The Core Dilemma: "All investors want to beat the market. But no one wants to pay the price: high fees, taxes, risks. We offered an alternative — reliability, simplicity, and low cost." 📈 Small Wins: Despite modest volume, Vanguard starts building a reputation as an “honest player.” It becomes evident: investors using Vanguard achieve better long-term results than those chasing trendy funds. 📘 Chapter 7: 1982–1991 — Growth and Recognition 💡 The Power of Philosophy: Bogle keeps repeating: “Stay the course” — don’t try to predict the market, don’t fall for fear and greed. This message becomes especially powerful after the 1982 and 1987 market crises. 🏆 The First Fruits: A slow but steady increase in assets begins. Vanguard launches new index funds: - Total Stock Market Index - Bond Index - International Index 📣 Educational Mission: Bogle writes books, articles, gives interviews. He isn’t just running a fund — he’s changing how people think about investing. A community of followers emerges — the Bogleheads. 📊 Key Stats: By 1991, Vanguard's assets reach around $130 billion. Index funds begin receiving positive reviews from analysts, including Morningstar. 📘 Chapter 8: 1991–1999 — Industry Leadership 🚀 Explosive Growth: In the 1990s, index funds go mainstream. Investors realize that most active funds underperform the market — and they vote with their money for Vanguard. 🧰 Expanding the Product Line: Vanguard introduces: - Retirement funds - Bond funds - International and balanced funds - Admiral Shares — low-cost funds for loyal investors 📢 Open Fight with the Industry: Bogle continues to harshly criticize Wall Street: - For greed, manipulation, and lack of transparency - For prioritizing company profit over client interest "The industry hates Vanguard because it proves you can be honest and still succeed." ⚠️ Internal Challenges: In the late 1990s, Bogle’s health declines. He passes leadership to Jack Brennan but retains influence on company strategy. 📊 Midpoint Summary (Chapters 6–8) 📅 Phase 📈 Essence 1976–1981 Quiet survival: building the model, fighting for trust 1982–1991 Slow growth: philosophy attracts investors 1991–1999 Recognition and leadership: indexing becomes dominant 💬 Bogle Quotes from These Chapters: "Investing is not a business. It’s a service. Those who forget this lose everything." "Every dollar spent on fees is a dollar lost to your future." "Volatility is not the enemy. The real enemy is you, if you panic." 📘 Chapter 9: Leadership as a Calling 💡 A Leader ≠ A Manager: Bogle contrasts a true leader with just an efficient executive. A real leader: - Puts others’ interests above their own - Has a moral compass, not just KPIs - Makes hard, unpopular decisions 🛤 His Leadership Style: "Don’t ask others to do what you wouldn’t do yourself." "Always explain why — people follow meaning, not orders." He genuinely believes Vanguard should be more than a successful business — it should be a force for good in the market. "Leadership is loyalty to an idea bigger than yourself." 🔄 Feedback Principle: Bogle constantly interacts with clients, employees, and journalists. He never isolates himself in an “ivory tower” — he believes this openness is a leader’s true strength. 📘 Chapter 10: Client Service — Vanguard’s Mission 🧭 The Mission: "Maximize investor returns — not company profits." Vanguard is built around fiduciary responsibility: every decision must pass the test — is this in the investor’s best interest or not? 🧾 How It’s Implemented: - Fees below market average → investors keep more - No ads for “hot” funds → Vanguard sells stability, not trends - No sales commissions → no one profits off pushing funds to clients - Ethical code — “Don’t do anything you wouldn’t want on the front page of the newspaper.” "We’re not trying to be the best for Wall Street. We’re trying to be the best for you." 📘 Chapter 11: The Market Should Serve Society 📉 Critique of Modern Wall Street: Bogle argues that finance has drifted from its original purpose. Investing has turned into trading. The investor became a cash cow, not a partner. "The market now serves itself — and we’re still paying the price." 🌱 What the System Should Look Like: - Companies should serve society - Investors should be owners, not speculators - Funds should be transparent, accountable, and honest 📢 Call for Reform: Bogle calls for a rethinking of finance: - Restore the human element - Make mission more important than profit - Protect long-term interests of millions of ordinary investors "If we want capitalism with a human face, we must return finance to serving society." 📊 Summary of Chapters 9–11: Bogle's Philosophy 📌 Direction------------💬 Essence Leadership-------------Morality, leading by example, purpose-driven Business---------------First and foremost — service to the client Financial System-------Must work for society, not just for profit of the few ✨ Inspirational Quotes: "The most important thing you can invest is not money — it’s your conscience." "Honesty in business is not a competitive edge. It’s a duty." "I’m not against capitalism. I’m against capitalism without morals." 📘 Chapter 12: The Future of Investing — Where the Industry Is Headed 🌐 Bogle sees three main trends: Victory of Passive Investing: - Index funds continue to displace active management - Their share of assets under management is growing rapidly - More investors are realizing the power of simplicity Fee Pressure: - Fees are approaching zero (some funds are effectively free) - Winners: investors. Losers: traditional management companies The Role of Technology: - Rise of robo-advisors (automated investment advisors) - But Bogle warns: Technology without philosophy is just a tool, not a solution 🚨 Threat #1 — Hyperfinancialization: "The market is turning into a casino. And the fewer the players, the more the house wins." Bogle reminds us: the goal of investing is owning businesses — not gambling. The higher the turnover, the more you lose on fees and taxes. 📘 Chapter 13: The Power of Indexing — Threat or Blessing? 📈 Strength in Scale: The biggest index providers (Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street) own large shares in nearly all companies in the indexes. This raises the issue of concentrated power — is too much influence in too few hands? ⚖️ The Indexing Paradox: Index funds don’t actively vote on corporate governance issues. So the more power they hold, the less oversight there is over company management. 📣 Bogle’s Proposals: - Establish a code of conduct for index providers - Require them to vote in investors’ interests - Mandate transparency in how they use their voting power "We fought for the democratization of investing. We cannot let it end in a new monarchy." 📘 Chapter 14: Personal Reflections — On Life, Mission, and Faith 🧬 Personal and Eternal: Bogle shares his core life principles: - To serve, not to own - To leave a mark, not accumulate - To do what’s right, not what’s profitable He talks about his battle with heart disease — both as a personal journey and a metaphor for resisting the system. 🙏 Gratitude: He dedicates the book to his family, colleagues, and investors. Emphasizes: every day is a chance to be useful. "I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. My career isn’t a triumph — it’s a thank you to fate for the chance to be heard." 📊 Summary of Chapters 12–14: Looking Ahead and Within 📌 Theme-----------------💬 Essence Future of Investing---------Indexing is the new standard, but needs responsible stewardship Concentration of Power----Index giants must be accountable to society Personal Legacy-----------Life is about service, honesty, and setting an example 💬 Final Inspirational Quotes: "Life isn’t about making more money. It’s about doing more good." "One day, someone will say: ‘Bogle was stubborn. He never compromised his conscience.’ That will be the best reward." 🧩 Bogle’s Principle Summary (from the book): - Lower costs — pay less = keep more - Don’t chase returns — be realistic - Be a long-term investor — ignore market noise - Invest broadly, passively, regularly - Don’t try to beat the market — own the market - Focus on goals, not trends - Finance = service. Not a business for profit 💡 Investment Philosophy 🟨 “This is a business where you get what you don’t pay for.” 🟨 “Don’t try to beat the market. Just own it.” 🟨 “In the stock market, investors are rewarded for patience and punished for frenzy.” 🟨 “Gross return minus costs = market return. After costs — less. So: reduce costs — and you win.” 🟨 “The problem isn’t that investors know too little. The problem is they know too much of what doesn’t matter.” 🧭 Principles & Morality 🟩 “Investing is not a business. It’s a service.” 🟩 “Honesty isn’t a strategy. It’s an obligation.” 🟩 “The goal of Vanguard isn’t to make more, but to return to the investor what’s rightfully theirs.” 🟩 “If your investments keep you up at night, change them. Or better — change yourself.” 🧠 On Leadership and Mission 🔷 “A leader isn’t the one in front. It’s the one responsible for the rest.” 🔷 “Respect isn’t bought. It’s earned when you do what’s right, even if it’s unpopular.” 🔷 “We didn’t build Vanguard for glory. We built it to leave something better than what was.” 💬 On the Market and Industry 🔴 “Today's stock market isn’t a place for investors. It’s a casino with a shiny sign.” 🔴 “We’re not against capital. We’re against capitalism without a conscience.” 🔴 “The people selling investments always say they can pick the best. But what if the best is just paying less?” ❤️ On Life and Legacy 💠 “I created Vanguard, but Vanguard created me. It’s not my victory — it’s gratitude for the chance to serve.” 💠 “Every day is a chance to do something not for yourself.” 💠 “You can measure success with money. Or with a conscience, you don’t have to justify.” It was a lot of work! Click to like + Write in the comments your favorite books about the financial market Best regards, EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Education
by EXCAVO
8
When Will Altseason Start? When BTC reached 120k📈 One of the most common questions I get: WHEN WILL ALTSEASON START? Here’s the answer 👇 🔻 The real problem: memes drained all the liquidity. The money that was supposed to go into fundamental projects in the summer of 2024.....got redirected into memes. Yes, some people made money on that. But most retail traders? They didn’t. Of course, you can show profitable wallets. I also made money, but it was on insider information. I think it would be perfect if Trump launched his token — just like Argentina’s Libra — to show people one clear thing: - Memes are dangerous. -They suck liquidity and leave you with nothing but losses. It’s a necessary wake-up call. I didn’t want to say this, but maybe we need people to get burned by memes so they stop blindly throwing money at hype. Some memes might still pump. Yes, even some “fundamental memes” might outperform serious altcoins. But in general? The meme market is a trap. It's a money pit. People think they’re great investors, but in reality — it’s a casino. There’s no tech. No fundamentals. I don't deny the “fundamental” memes may show growth more than other altcoins. I don't rule that out. But if we are talking about the general pool of memes, there is such a problem going on here that most people will lose money. 5% make money on memes, 95% lose. I'm self-aware, and I'm in that 95%. That's why I didn't invest in altcoins. Development is dead ... for now. Nobody cares about building. You can spend two years developing a serious product, burn through money, and try to improve the crypto space… But most people don’t want that. They want: To buy pictures they like As long as they look well-packaged. That’s why we see so few good projects today — everyone ran off to create memes. But finally, we’ve reached a new stage: People are starting to realize... We need real, fundamental projects again. Memes might still spike — especially near the end of the bull run. But the market has finally started waking up. ⚠️ Yes, the market is broken. But that’s exactly what we need — A bottom to bounce from. Crypto’s future is bright. The next 10 years — and even the end of this year — could look very strong. But right now? We’re not at the bottom in price. We’re at the bottom in sentiment. In faith. In energy. This is a real turnaround. From here, real projects will emerge with real audiences and real goals. That’s what will grow this industry—and this industry will shape the world. Crypto moves fast. All it takes is two green daily candles,and suddenly everyone screams: “It’s back! New bull market!” Funny… but predictable. Back to reality. We’re at a point where liquidity is gone. People are out of funds. Panic is setting in. “Cycles don’t work anymore,” they say. People start selling to survive — for business, travel, life. Even long-time holders are taking losses. But when all the weak hands are gone, only the true holders will remain. And who will move the market next? Institutional investors When the U.S. adopts Bitcoin as a reserve (which might already happen this May)... Other countries will follow. Bitcoin will rally — and drag the market upward. That’s when we’ll see: The alt season will start only when Bitcoin is 120-130k. Then profit taking and overflow into alts will start. That’s when we’ll see: -Institutional investors -The Web2 audience -Capital flowing into fundamentals, not memes Because eventually, people will realize: You don’t invest in memes. You invest in utility. In value. In tech. 💥 Retail is the key. The market needs mass participation. Retail brings volume, and for that, we need: Real news, Clear regulation, Trust and confidence When that happens —people will believe again. And they’ll come running. But then, like always... Everyone will be convinced: “Crypto is in permanent bull mode!” Money will pour in. FOMO will take over… ...and then it ends. The new bear market begins. And I’ll be screaming about it — loud. I do my best for you, EXCAVO. _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
62
Bitcoin update 21.03.2025 (6 more months of bull market)Bitcoin Update : 6 Months Left Until the Bear Market You asked for a Bitcoin update — here it is. I don’t post updates too often because I’m currently focused on developing my academy. But let’s get straight to the point. Where Are We Now? There are only 6 months left until the end of the current bull cycle . My vision remains unchanged: we’ve gone through a correction and are now forming the bottom of this move. This is a classic consolidation phase, where the market is preparing for its next big push. I’m still bullish, but it’s important to remember that we’re in the distribution zone . This means upward movement will be accompanied by volatility and local pullbacks. What to Expect in the Coming Months? The next 2 months are likely to be monumental. We’ll see new highs, but in 2 months, most people will have already forgotten about this forecast (as usual). People tend to ignore long-term trends until they become glaringly obvious. However, publishing exact targets on the chart right now isn’t the smartest move. We might not even reach them, as emotions and news drive the market. Key Moment: May 2025 In May, there will be a major announcement in the US regarding cryptocurrencies . This will be a turning point. The market is currently moving based on the current sentiment, but after May, things will change. When politicians start talking about crypto, it’s our signal to exit. My Take Don’t underestimate the importance of timing. When everyone starts talking about Bitcoin, it’s already time to get out. Until then, we’ll see growth, but keep this in mind: the next 6 months are for closing positions, not opening new ones. Be prepared for a significant correction after September — more than 50% from the peak . This is a natural process that repeats itself over and over again. Conclusion The market moves in cycles. They work like clockwork: 151–152 weeks of growth (bull cycle). 51–53 weeks of correction (bear cycle). We’re nearing the end of the bull cycle. Act consciously, stay disciplined, and remember that success comes to the patient. Best regards, EXCAVO _____________________ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
47
Ethereum - Wyckoff Events and PhasesThe dominance of Bitcoin is growing. When Bitcoin is growing - altcoins are growing less or without rising. Bitcoin falls - alts fall even more. Paired with ETHBTC, we see a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #2. We are currently in Phase D. The price is approaching a support zone. Most likely, there will be some descending trading near this zone. We will form LPST (a last point of supply) and SOW (a sign of weakness). Next, we are waiting for Phase E. Best regards, EXCAVO
Short
by EXCAVO
13
Chainlink $LINK Growth Factors in 2025 Chainlink is expected to experience significant growth due to several key factors influencing its adoption and market value by 2025: 1. Decentralized Oracle Network: Chainlink's role as an oracle network allows it to connect smart contracts to real-world data, enhancing the functionality and reliability of decentralized applications, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi). 2. Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations with firms like Ripple and Swift are establishing Chainlink as a critical player in traditional finance, emphasizing its importance for providing secure, real-time data for various financial applications. 3.Broader DeFi Implications: The rising adoption of stablecoins, such as RLUSD, and the liquidity they provide are solid foundations for DeFi growth, which Chainlink supports through its reliable oracle services. 4. Technological Innovations: Chainlink is advancing the Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), aiding in seamless asset transfers across blockchains, making it more attractive for developers and enterprises alike. 5.Integration of Real-World Assets: As asset tokenization grows, Chainlink's oracles will be pivotal in verifying data, reinforcing its utility in DeFi ecosystems and extending its reach into capital markets. 6. Overall Market Sentiment: Predictions for LINK’s price in 2025 $60+, primarily driven by adoption rates and market dynamics, but optimistic scenarios could see much higher valuations. Conclusion In summary, Chainlink is strategically positioned for growth in 2025 through its innovations, partnerships, and persistent integration into both the DeFi space and traditional finance. I see a standard pattern here of accumulation, pre-pump, pump, real pump. There aren't many fundamentally strong infrastructure projects right now, but link is one of the strongest. That's why many people are adding it to their portfolios Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
27
MicroStrategy - Bitcoin Holdings Chart & Purchase HistoryPrices and volumes of Bitcoin purchases at MicroStrategy Over 9k BTC at an average price of 58000. 19452 Btc at $52765. Even these whales are buying at the tops and sitting in the minuses for years The largest holder of Bitcoin on the planet is not Microstrategy , but the Chinese government, cryptoanalysts found (twitter.com/cryptoquant_com). In 2019, Chinese authorities confiscated 194 thousand #BTC , 833 thousand #ETH and other coins as a result of an investigation into PlusToken fraud. To this day, the confiscated crypto lies in the wallets of China's national treasury. In comparison, MicroStrategy has about 130,000 bitcoins . 27 march MicroStrategy repaid its $205M Silvergate loan at a 22% discount . As of 3/23/23, $MSTR acquired an additional ~6,455 bitcoins for ~$150M at an average of ~$23,238 per #bitcoin & held ~138,955 BTC acquired for ~$4.14B at an average of ~$29,817 per bitcoin . Best regards EXCAVO
BNC:BLX
by EXCAVO
46
AI GEMS 💎AI The ubiquitous integration of artificial intelligence into our daily lives is steadily increasing, and the technology is impacting many industries and activities. One of the drivers of the AI field has been OpenAI, which has a variety of products such as GPT, ChatGPT, Sora, and DALL-E. AI is used in many industries, from personal assistants such as Siri and Alexa to AI algorithms in social media - AI's presence is ubiquitous and continues to expand. In the field of cryptocurrencies, AI has been no exception. The convergence of AI and blockchain technology has led to a surge in the development of AI-based cryptocurrencies and applications. These projects utilize AI and machine learning to empower blockchain networks, improve security, and create new use cases. AI is used in cryptocurrency for various purposes, such as automating trading strategies, improving market analysis, and making blockchain networks more efficient. Even some AI-enabled cryptocurrencies have emerged, looking to capitalize on the growing interest in both AI and cryptocurrencies. However, the use of AI in cryptocurrencies should be approached with caution. While AI can potentially empower blockchain networks and improve user experience, it poses new risks and challenges. For example, AI algorithms can be susceptible to manipulation or exploitation, and the security of AI-based cryptocurrency systems can be jeopardized. AI has become an essential part of our lives, and its integration into the cryptocurrency world is no exception. As AI evolves and improves, its role in cryptocurrency will likely expand, offering new opportunities and challenges for developers and users alike. AI Market today The AI sector of the cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a period of significant growth and development. According to the latest data, the total market capitalization of AI-related cryptocurrencies is $32.8 billion. AI-related crypto assets have performed well after major developments in OpenAI: The sector has seen significant growth over the past year, with high-profile projects such as CSEMA:AKT , NYSE:FET , and SET:PRIME significantly increasing their market value. The artificial intelligence sector in the cryptocurrency space is seen as a strong contender for becoming the following big narrative, and the continuous development of AI technologies is expected to drive further growth. Projects such as The Graph (GRT), Fetch.ai (FET), and SingularityNET (AGIX) are among the most successful in the AI cryptocurrency space, offering unique value propositions that utilize AI to enhance the functionality of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. The convergence of AI and cryptocurrencies is seen as a significant trend: AI is used to analyze the vast amounts of data generated by cryptocurrency markets. Such analysis helps to understand market trends, predict price movements, and improve the security of digital transactions. The use of AI in crypto trading and market forecasting is a crucial area, with projects such as Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) and Numeraire (NMR) leading the way. However, it is essential to note that the artificial intelligence cryptocurrency sector is still at an early stage of development, and while it offers excellent opportunities, it also carries risks. The speculative and volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market means that it is difficult to predict which particular AI cryptocurrency will show significant growth. The AI sector of the cryptocurrency market is a dynamic and rapidly evolving space. A wide range of projects utilize AI technologies to enhance the functionality of blockchain and cryptocurrencies. As AI evolves and integrates into the cryptocurrency market, we can expect to see more sophisticated and efficient solutions for trading, security, and compliance. Example of AI in DAO AI at the edge of DAO - autonomous agents act as token holders. Decision-making in the DAO is democratic and decentralized. This means that every member of the DAO has the right to vote. In theory, the democratic nature of the DAO has several advantages. However, in practice, the requirement to vote on every single proposal can be overwhelming for members. Many DAO members do not have the time to vote or even the ability to understand each proposal. The lack of voter participation in the DAO limits the efficiency of decision-making within the DAO and could be a potential risk of centralization if only a tiny fraction of DAO members participate in the voting process. If autonomous agents act as delegates for token holders, voter participation in the DAO could increase, the speed of decision-making would accelerate, and decentralization could become feasible. Promising projects Attention! Make your DYOR! If you want to see my portfolio, please see its description below the chart. MASA The MASA project is a decentralized AI data and LLM (Large Language Model) network that aims to enable users to own, share, and earn from their data and computations, thereby facilitating the development of AI applications. The MASA token serves as a utility and management token for the Masa network and operates as a standard ERC20 token on Ethereum Mainnet. The MASA token has several options for use in the Masa network: Users can submit their data to the Masa network and receive MASA tokens as rewards. This incentivizes data sharing and helps build a robust AI data ecosystem. Businesses and developers can pay for MASA tokens to access and utilize the data, products, and services available on the Masa network. Users pay for MASA gas on the Masa Avalanche subnet to mine and manage their zkSBT (zero-knowledge Soulbound Token), an encrypted repository of personal data. Some of these gas payments are burned, contributing to the token's deflation. Masa Oracle node operators use MASA tokens to manage Masa zk-oracle nodes. This helps secure the network and maintain its integrity. Through community management, MASA token holders can participate in the Masa network's decision-making process. This ensures that the network develops in a decentralized and democratic manner. Overall, the MASA project is a promising initiative in the field of decentralized AI data and LLM. It offers users the opportunity to contribute to the development of AI applications while being rewarded for their data. The MASA token is vital in encouraging data sharing, securing the network, and facilitating community management in the Masa ecosystem. Parsiq Parsiq is a comprehensive data network that powers the dApps backend and Web3 protocols. Its APIs provide real-time and historical data querying for blockchain protocols and clients, facilitating the creation of various Web3 data products. The platform is designed to connect blockchain to various ecosystems or off-chain devices and applications, allowing users to control and secure DeFi applications, create custom event triggers, and automate real-time operations. Parsiq has made significant strides in its growth, including more than 50 strategic partnerships in 2021. These include well-known projects and service providers such as AAVE, OKEx, Solana, Chainlink, Polkadot, UnoRe, Mysterium Network, PancakeSwap, and deBridge. The project's technology is linked to many famous projects and protocols in the cryptocurrency space, allowing it to be used in increasing use cases, including AML and KYT processes, DeFi, and TradFi. In 2023, Parsiq introduced its Reactive Network, designed to bring the concepts of ReactEVM (rEVM), reactive smart contracts (RSC), and Relayer Network to the blockchain world. The Relayer Network extends the functionality and capabilities of RSCs by bringing their abilities to the entire blockchain and allowing the whole network of blockchain ecosystems to be tracked, analyzed, and responded to through a single, smart contract. The REACT token plays a vital role in the Reactive Network, paying for gas and post-blockchain RSC transactions and rewarding participants who maintain consensus in the event log. Parsiq's evolution of rEVM leverages all aspects of its past and accumulated experience to bring its most revolutionary and industry-impacting solutions to the future to date. The VM reactive brilliant contract standard, combined with the cross-chaining capabilities provided by the Relayer Network, will enable current and future developers to build the next generation of Web3 applications. Parsiq is a promising Web3 data networking project that offers innovative solutions for connecting blockchain to off-chain applications and facilitates the development of advanced Web3 applications. Introducing the Reactive Network and the REACT token further expands the platform's capabilities, making it a significant player in the blockchain ecosystem. EMC EMC ( Edge Matrix Computing ) is a cryptocurrency project that aims to create a decentralized network of AI computing power applications. It focuses on efficiently connecting and collaborating tens of thousands of idle or clustered GPU computing power nodes through Proof of Work (POW). The unique value of the EMC project is that it is the only project in the Web3 space that directly links GPU computing power to AI applications, delivering them to everyday developers and users at low cost and convenience. The project was launched with the first RWA (Real World Assets) product based on GPU hardware computing power for AI on December 6, 2023. This product is based on GPUs, the most valuable manufacturing tools of the AI era, and represents standardization, high value, and high technical added value. The release of RWA increases asset liquidity for nodes and the network and ensures the continued growth of EMC's network value within the RWA product. EMC is actively under construction and has attracted the crypto community's attention, as evidenced by its strong social media presence and ongoing discussions about its airdrop. The project is considered large-scale and has the potential for significant growth in the future. Forta Forta is a project aimed at improving the security of smart contracts on the blockchain. It has a token called FORT, which incentivizes network security. The project was launched with a $23 million fundraising led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) and has gained attention for its efforts to secure smart contracts on various blockchain networks. The project aims to detect and mitigate cybersecurity, financial, operational, and governance threats through a community of developers who build and run bots to monitor these risks. Forta's decentralized approach to security is seen as a critical step in securing smart contracts and the entire blockchain ecosystem. FORT owners can vote on governance proposals, contributing to the decision-making process that guides the network. This democratic approach ensures that the community can influence the direction and development of the Forta network. This way, the FORT token is central to the Forta project's Web3 security mission, incentivizing the developer community to build the tools needed to secure their projects. The token's value is tied to the success and growth of the Forta Network, making it an essential component in the ecosystem's efforts to improve blockchain security. Alethea AI Alethea AI is a cutting-edge project combining generative AI and blockchain to democratize AI ownership and governance. It is at the forefront of the cryptocurrency revolution to decentralize the ownership and management of AI by leveraging the combined capabilities of these technologies. The project attracted significant attention and support, with a total funding of $30.4 million, and the ALI token was an integral part of the project. The project introduced the concept of intelligent non-fungible tokens (iNFTs), which are NFTs capable of learning, evolving, and interacting with the environment. These icons can be created using the AI Protocol, which offers developers tools for creating AI-enabled DApps. The native ALI token plays a fundamental role in the decentralized operations of the iNFT protocol and the DApps built on top of it. The primary mission of Alethea AI is to provide decentralized ownership and democratic governance of artificial intelligence, which is achieved through the use of blockchain technology. The project also introduced CharacterGPT V2, which allows the creation of realistic characters with unique voices and personalities through text input. Openfabric AI Openfabric AI is a Tier 1 protocol that aims to revolutionize artificial intelligence (AI) by creating an ecosystem where innovation is highly valued. It provides a platform for people with different backgrounds to contribute and utilize AI solutions to solve complex problems. Open fabric has been developed through extensive research and testing, ensuring it is built on a solid and reliable foundation. Openfabric architecture encourages communities to unite, monetize their intellectual property, and compete or collaborate to pave the way for the Internet of Artificial Intelligence. It abstracts the technical complexity of artificial intelligence systems, enabling improved user experience and business integration. By utilizing a trusted execution environment and advanced cryptography techniques, the underlying framework ensures scalability, data privacy, and intellectual property protection. Critical features of Open Fabric include decentralization to avoid centralized control, usability to simplify interaction with AI, security to protect privacy and intellectual property, smart economics to ensure fair transactions, interoperability for collaboration between AI agents, and scalability by leveraging the computing power of network participants. The Openfabric platform offers several tools and resources for developers and users, such as the Openfabric Store, Openfabric Toolkit, Openfabric SDK, and Openfabric Daemon. It also supports creating new AI applications and aims to stimulate fair market competition. It is a promising projims to create an inclusive and cohesive community and marketplace for AI resources, developers, and companies, making AI and blockchain technology more accessible and efficient for users. Conclusion The artificial intelligence sector is experiencing rapid growth and is expected to continue expanding significantly in the coming years. According to Precedence Research, the global artificial intelligence (AI) market was valued at $454.12 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach around $2,575.16 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.7% from 2023 to 2032. This growth is driven by the increasing demand for AI in various fields, including medical, banking and finance, manufacturing, and others. One of the key factors driving the growth of the AI sector is the development of new technologies and the widespread adoption of AI across various industries. For instance, the healthcare AI market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 37.5% from 2023 to 2032, driven by the use of AI for drug discovery, medical imaging, and patient care. Similarly, the AI market in the automotive industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 35.5% from 2023 to 2032, driven by the development of autonomous vehicles and advanced driver assistance systems. Apart from these industry trends, the AI sector also benefits from the increasing availability of data and the development of new algorithms and computing platforms. As available data increases and computing power grows, AI systems become more functional and versatile, enabling them to address an ever-wider range of tasks and applications. Overall, the future of the AI sector looks bright, with significant growth and innovation expected in the coming years. As AI technologies continue to evolve and become more widespread, they have the potential to change many aspects of our lives and drive economic growth and development. In the future, adopting AI will lead to innovation and success, while resistance to it could lead to stagnation and obsolescence. Best regards EXCAVO
CRYPTO:ALIUSDLong
by EXCAVO
9
Bitcoin update 11 Jan 2025I don't often post bitcoin updates, not because I don't have anything to say, but because I understand what phase of the market we are in. 

 This phase as I said earlier in the posts is called distribution which will last until September 2025. After that I am expecting a correction of 50%+ from the put peak.
I have already made an assumption what reversal formation we will make. 
 Locally, it's January 11, 2025.
It is the beginning of the year, the market has already played Trump's presidency and as a classic “buy on rumors, sell on facts” the inauguration will be very soon, and I think the market will react down in a week. But after the positive news will continue, but we are unlikely to see in this cycle 200k for 1 bitcoin, but for me it will be a surprise. There will be a lot of talk about bitcoin. At the end of the year there should be euphoria with the new head of SEC pouring honey in the ears of crypto holders.
 I'm not listening to anyone, I'm moving forward with my plan. If you're reading me, there hasn't been a post in this series in a long time that I've changed my point of view.
I've actually started trading less cryptocurrency, it's now position trades on cycles. And it got a little boring. 
So I've tapped into the traditional markets. And I'm more actively focused on them. If you're interested in any question, ask in the comments. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
50
Bitcoin VS AppleApple's product releases came out today. But it has nothing to do with this publication, just a coincidence. As you know, I've been analyzing fractals of other assets for a long time. I find the comparison between Apple and Bitcoin very interesting and similar. I'm inspired by this analysis as much as the previous ones And the end of this bitcoin market will be around September 2025. I don't listen to the noise that's coming from everywhere. I'm following my own plan. Best regards EXCAVO
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by EXCAVO
16
Distribution phase in the next 10 monthsSo we broke 100k. I'm sure we'll see higher in the next 10 months. What's next? When is the correction? I see such messages every day. That's why I want to give a full commentary and my vision. As Waykoff told us, there are accumulation and distribution zones. On top is the distribution zone If we stick to the theory of cycles, which I often write about www.tradingview.com 
We are entering the zone of local distribution I mentioned and marked with red zones If we are interested in the question how we will form the top and where we will distribute?
 I would take into account the fact that we are already in the bitcoin distribution zone in this cycle and it will continue for another 10 months. So, sideways in the 50k range, I agree, but I don't think it will go below the previous high of 73k. Three distribution options: 1. ATH and then a gradual slide - the most standard top formation, with a run above 100k to induce euphoria 2. Two rising tops look better with liquidity removal of the first top, etc. 3. The killer of all the shorts, those waiting for the crisis, and so on. They're going to kill all the non-believers on the moon. And force everyone who believes in a million dollars for bitcoin to buy it. Conclusion - I expect a local distribution above 100k over the next 10 months, the possible top formation I have shown. I do not expect a sharp drop to 50k - bitcoin has become a different asset class. Everything can change a lot in 10 months, and based on my cycle theory, I am waiting for the bull cycle to end. In this range of 10 months, altcoins will once again fall and rise at the very end. They will fall 51 more weeks down after September 2025. I'm talking about local forecast in 1-2 years, further it will be even more interesting because globally after this cycle, all retail will say goodbye to their bitcoin and will not buy it back cheaper in 95% of cases. and Next we will count how much 1 sashoshi is worth. in 1 Bitcoin is 120,000 satoshis. When 1BTC reaches $120k. 1 sat = 1USD And due to the fact that the printing press is working 1 satoshi will grow in the long run. I hope for the best in our world. Stay close. You can find out about other communication opportunities down below the chart. Best regards EXCAVO
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
65
The cryptocurrency market is a market of expectationsLots of good news, but that's just at first glance. Expectations and reality 1. Last week we had good news about XRP victory, and this news was spread all over the internet and the market reacted with growth. XRP is not a security, but those contracts sold to early stage funds may still be considered securities. So the case is not closed yet and it will continue as a subject of manipulation The SEC can appeal this decision at any appropriate time. 2. FTX - there are a lot of rumors and different statements now about the reopening of this exchange, there are a lot of forms on the net ( fraudulent and not) about FTX account recovery and confirmation. Hope is given:) not the fact that the funds will be restored 3. I would not be surprised if they start to restore UST and LUNA case, if they do not start to restore at least give hope. ( reference - the cryptocurrency market is a market of expectations ) 4. BTC ETF. This is the same expectation that has been jutting for a long time and now strong funds such as BlackRock have joined, which have been buying physical bitcoin through other funds for a long time (e.g. at least 10% of Microstrategy belongs to BlackRock). On the expectation of ETF approval the market is inspired ( I wrote a post about Blackrock ). In any case after ETF approval we will see a drop here there is a logic: - ETF contracts can be bought more than physical bitcoins. - Need a good entry point into the market, 30k+ is not the best entry point - A drop in price with physical bitcoins + media resources etc. seems to me as very logical and very likely. All these points should happen at the peak of the hype, when many disillusioned in crypto after FTX and other shocks will start to re-enter the market, it all explains the Logistic Curve - the speed of information dissemination . The Which curve explains that when FTX crashed in November 2022 was the beginning of a new cycle, which I talked about in previous posts, then everyone was afraid and thought it would go even lower. And the end zone of the cycle is when the crowd comes into the market, a lot of noise shouting about a bright future, we are on the cusp of these events. At that time of course we will see a lot of dumb money big green candles on small capitalization altcoins. And that's the time to get out. Frankly I got out even earlier in stablecoins and now I only do swing trades ( positional orders positions with small stop loss ) If we talk about the time when all this can happen, it is a difficult question, because according to my previous calculations in September-October I was already waiting for the bottom, I am still waiting for it and my portfolio 100% In stablecoins is a proof of it. Well after the fall we will have the most interesting negative news, here is the list: - SEC appeal question on XRP - SEC questions to all crypto companies that made public sale - fines, lawsuit. - Questions to crypto exchanges ( bankruptcy of crypto exchanges) - Regulation - CBDC implementation and trading in some jurisdictions BTC/CBDC ( currency ) You definitely won't want to buy cryptocurrency on news like this, and this will be the moment when the new cycle begins. So ladies and gentlemen we are here for a long time and welcome to our community. And remember, trading is not a sprint - trading is a marathon. Best regard EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
65
Bitcoin cycles + logistic curve = New bull run 2023-2025 I want to take a closer look at Bitcoin's price weekly logarithmic chart. Firstly, the chart examines growth and fall cycles, sometimes referred to as economic cycles or trade cycles. As you can see in my analysis, the growth cycle usually lasts approximately 150 weeks and is always longer than the fall cycle that spans out over the course of approximately 51-60 weeks. 150 bars on Bitcoin's weekly price chart, mark the beginning of the next pulse of the growth cycle that we are currently in. Everything in our life is based on cyclical patterns, especially when it comes to financial markets. If we analyze the rise and fall, we can conclude that the fall occurs faster than the growth of about three times. About logistic curve The logistic curve describes the speed of information dissemination among people. This graph describes the distribution of information in an environment. At first, an instrument is of little interest to anyone, investors are afraid of buying it, and its price fluctuates around r °. At this time, the initiated ("elite"), solely owning important information, begin to buy it, and the price slightly grows. Then the information is shared with a small circle of insiders, individual purchases grow into active buying, and the price of the instrument abruptly takes off. The general public is perplexed and can not understand what is the reason. In the third stage, news comes out and investors fearing not having time to "jump into the last car" buy up this tool that the "elite" and "proxies" are happy to sell to them at the maximum price (with joy, because at that time the "elite" there is already new information that the "elite" has taken into account, a new logistic curve in another instrument begins, or in the same, but with another sign, sales begin). The third stage is completed, when the whole society is aware of what happened, discuss everywhere, in the metro, all who could have already made There is no one to sell. The only thing that changes is the slope of the logistic curve - the information dissemination rate As a rule, 90% of bulls in high. And then the market unfolds and vice versa If you are constantly being told the same thing, then everybody knows it already. It is necessary to look not at the news If everyone around you screams the same thing, then you are in the upper zone The task of stepping back from the noise (this time it's useless overpriced NFT pictures) "WE WILL BE GOLD BEFORE THE PORN, WHILE GOLDEN IDEOLOGISTS WILL EXIST" Rothschild's "The same situation with cryptocurrencies, but this is only the beginning" Mr.EXCAVO Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
130
Bitcoin - Fractals and PerspectivesThe willingness to learn, however, changes everything. Active traders treat market analysis with an open attitude and they are interested in learning how to analyze the market structure. They combine concepts such as trends, patterns, and support and resistance to actively improve their analysis and trading skills. These traders are real manual traders. This article is intended for those in the latter group, the learners and active traders. We will explain how you can understand the market with more clarity. The Market is Fractal of Nature Does the market move erratically? Or is there an order behind the chaos? According to the Chaos Theory, the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems depend on their initial conditions. The concept is not that complicated as it seems: basically the ‘chaotic’ behavior is really not as chaotic as it seems. Simply said, there are underlying patterns that repeat in a similar way on all scales. This phenomenon can be seen in both natural systems, like weather and climate, and artificial elements like road traffic and economics. And yes, this includes the financial markets in general. The market is Fractal in nature, which means that similar price patterns repeat on all time frames. So I started researching fractals a few years ago. Many fractals have worked out, in some cases partially worked out, the study is a process of learning and growth. I want to share it with you today. Why it works I have already said in previous posts - because all the same asset managers all the same algorithms all the same emotions and all the same actions people make in this or that situation. The nature of human behavior cannot be deceived. that's why fractals repeat themselves. I have selected all the structures of reversal and further perspectives of charts The main indicators : 1. this is the formation of the bottom 2. Holding levels 3. Formation of a horizontal strong level and its breakdown That's all bitcoin has done in the last year. What's next? Statistics I found only one fractal after which we update the bottom. No rolling growth 4 fractals And most of them are 20-40 sideways and up. All fractals are below. These are all the fractals I want to share with you. Best Regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by EXCAVO
43
$Portal researchPORTAL Portal is a pioneering cross-chain gaming ecosystem designed to connect games from different blockchain networks. It aims to create a seamless experience for gamers by connecting them to a huge number of games through its cross-chain token platform. Portal is built on the Ethereum blockchain, which is known for its reliability and extensive developer community. Portal's technology is designed to enable gamer access and game distribution, allowing Web2 gamers to seamlessly transition into the Web3 universe. The company is partnering with LayerZero to provide gamers with a seamless multi-chain experience, connecting disparate Web3 games to new players through a user-friendly user interface. The PORTAL token is used for network fees, payments, management, staking, and node purchases in the Portal ecosystem. The token's maximum supply is capped at 1 billion tokens, which supports value growth over time. Portal was introduced at the Binance Launchpool, allowing users to bet on BNB and FDUSD to mine PORTAL tokens. Tokenomics Portal has a maximum token supply limited to 1 billion tokens. The initial circulating supply after listing amounted to 167.13 million PORTAL, representing approximately 16.71% of the total token supply. The project's token distribution is as follows: Binance Launchpool: 50 million tokens, representing 5% of the total token supply. Team & Advisors: 230 million tokens, or 23% of the total token supply. Treasury: 230 million tokens, or 23% of the total token supply. Private Sale Investors: 220 million tokens, or 22% of the total token supply. Public Sale Investors: 110 million tokens, or 11% of the total token supply. Community Incentives - 1: 100 million tokens, or 10% of the total token supply. Community Incentives - 2: 40 million tokens, or 4% of the total token supply. Liquidity Reserve: 20 million tokens, or 2% of the total token supply. The token vesting schedule is critical to maintaining the stability and value of the PORTAL token. It involves the gradual release of tokens to different stakeholders over a period of time, which helps prevent large-scale token resets that could negatively impact their price. This approach aligns the incentives of all stakeholders, ensuring that everyone is working towards the long-term success of the project. Roadmap Portal has a comprehensive roadmap that outlines plans for its development and growth. The roadmap is divided into several phases, each focusing on different aspects of the project's development. Phase 1 (Q3 2023): Launch of the Portal ecosystem with more than 250 games online. Launch of the Portal version 1 gaming platform. Announcement of partnerships with various blockchain networks such as Solana, Avalanche, Klaytn and Polygon. Announcing the Portal game wallet and launching CrystalDash, a platform to increase awareness and demand for Portal. Publishing a technical description for Portal and bringing in high-profile advisors to the project, including the CEO of Team Secret and the founder of Rockstar Games. Partnering with WME, the world's leading talent agency, to help attract mainstream games and streamers to the platform. Phase 2 (Q4 2023): Integrate with other blockchain networks and expand cross-chain gaming capabilities. Launch Portal Gaming Wallet and develop a gaming SDK for easy integration.- Announce partnerships with leading esports teams and IPs.- Launch Portal Discovery Platform to showcase the best Web3 games in the Portal ecosystem.- Launch Portal Staking platform and Portal Nodes network.- Launch Nexus DEX for seamless transactions between assets. Future milestones (2024 and beyond): Expanding the Portal ecosystem to include new games and blockchain networks. Developing new features and tools to improve gameplay and facilitate cross-chain interactions. Continued efforts to decentralize the Portal platform and ecosystem. Continued focus on building a strong community and fostering meaningful connections between players, developers, and content creators. Audit Cryptoproject Portal has undergone a comprehensive audit to ensure the safety and reliability of its smart contracts and the entire platform. The audit was conducted by Cyberscope, a leading and recognized authority in the cryptocurrency space for auditing smart contracts. Cyberscope's auditing services are recognized by various startups such as PinkSale, Unicrypt and DxSale, allowing the project to receive a badge signifying trust and recognition. The audit from Cyberscope ensures that the Portal project is trusted and recognized. It enhances the security of the smart contract and serves as a basic building block for all marketing efforts. Upon successful completion of the audit, Portal receives an audit certificate to share with its investors and community, as well as a full audit report. Cyberscope's audit process includes extensive background checks and identity verification of project team members. This ensures data confidentiality and a state-of-the-art algorithm to verify team members. Cyberscope has successfully completed over 1,800 smart contract audits across various networks and has KYC'd over 800 teams without any reports from investors till date. Staking rewards The main function of the PORTAL token is a vote-betting feature that signals support for games on the Portal network. Essentially, gamers and games can place bets to earn rewards, but they can also signal their support for games by assigning a vote to their bet. In practice, signaling support for a game means that it becomes more visible on the Portal platform through ratings, relative betting levels (and other metrics), and greater visibility in the app. This, in turn, allows the game to acquire Portal platform users to grow its player base and launch new game assets with less hassle. A game joining the Portal ecosystem will have a good incentive to post Portal tokens, and it follows that gamers will want to show their support by doing the same. This leads to an effective “bet to scale” that decentralizes the distribution of games. Recycled Fees This occurs in real time as transactions are paid into PORTAL. The rate coefficient at that time is used to calculate how much of the purchased PORTAL burns up before distribution. Where S is defined as above, the burn amount B is calculated as follows: B = 1 - S The balance is distributed in the form of a platform rewards. Conclusion Portal certainly has a promising concept and is attracting significant attention and support from the gaming and blockchain community. Portal is a leading GameFi project and has made significant strides in connecting gaming networks and there are no analogs. I've been following this project for quite some time now and at the moment investors have about 10x returns. I have noticed that GameFi is low right now, but I believe that once the excitement starts to grow after the first successful game releases, this infrastructure project will be very relevant. I follow this sector closely, which is why I have included this project in my portfolio. If you are interested in reading my portfolio, you can read the text below the chart. From a chart perspective, it looks like this is one of the good formations to exit. The only downside I see is the huge capitalization with unlocked funds. If there are 40 likes I will publish a new research Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
2
BlackRock and other funds in cryptoBlackRock has significantly increased its investment in Bitcoin over the past year. This is partly due to strategic partnerships with MicroStrategy and Coinbase. As of April 2024, BlackRock holds 274,462k BTC worth $17 billion in its spot Bitcoin ETF. This amount is more than MicroStrategy, which holds 193k BTC. It is important to note that MicroStrategy was previously the top institutional Bitcoin investor, but now the BlackRock ETF has surpassed it in terms of BTC. In light of the rapid development of financial markets and constant changes in the global economy, funds are attracting particular attention. These financial organizations are not only key players on the global investment scene but also become significant drivers of future narratives and trends. From venture capital to investment banks, funds are actively involved in shaping the direction of markets and industries. They are the ones who vote with their money, determining which ideas and projects will receive funding and in which sectors of the economy we will see the next round of innovation and growth. Therefore, studying the actions and decisions of funds becomes an exciting task for investors and analysts and an essential tool for anticipating future economic and social trends. Funds are legal organizations that raise money for specific developing projects. Their main goal is to profit from investment, which is achieved by receiving a certain percentage of coins with the help of financing rounds from the total number of coins to be issued. In addition, the financing determines the price at which the fund invests in the project and the time of partial or full unlocking of the received coins for the funding in the project. Let's consider the activity indicator of funds and the categories of projects they invested in last year. The activity rate of investment funds in projects is currently high compared to the average monthly activity over the last 12 months. The following categories were the most invested in over the six months: NFT, 25.86%; Data Service, 21.29%; Artificial Intelligence (AI), 20.53%; DEX, 18.25%; and Play to Earn (GameFi), 14.07%. The most active funds over the past year: Monthly investment of funds over the last year: Where the most active investors have invested over the past year: Portfolios of large investors as of 29.04.2024 Please note that these investor portfolios may not fully reflect their assets; they only reflect those that have been identified to date by researching the blockchain and aggregating their cold wallets. Some of the more prominent investors such as Amber Group, DWF Labs, Wintermute, Jump Trading, Cumberland, GSR have a large amount of stablecoins on their cold wallets, indicating their willingness to continue accumulating their own assets during market downturns to build their influence, as well as to continue investing in projects. Pay attention also to companies that have a large amount of Ethereum, they can start exchanging ETH for other currencies using platforms like Uniswap, PancakeSwap, SushiSwap, and so on. An altcoin index indicates that the market is still dominated by Bitcoin. It is worth accumulating altcoins along with large capitals before Bitcoin's dominance starts to fall and the altcoin market blooms in new colors. BlackRock and tokenization BlackRock, one of the world's largest asset managers, is showing significant interest in cryptocurrency, specifically Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization. They have launched the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund (BUIDL) to invest in cash, US Treasuries. This fund is represented by the BUIDL token, which is fully backed by these assets and provides returns paid daily via blockchain rails to token holders. As reported by Forbes, the move is part of BlackRock's broader strategy to tokenize $10 trillion of its assets. Ondo Finance, a tokenized real assets (RWA) platform, improved its offerings by using BlackRock's BUIDL fund. Ondo Finance transferred the reserve assets of its US Treasury-backed token OUSG to BlackRock's BUILD. This decision aimed to provide instant settlement of the OUSG token, which was previously backed by the BlackRock iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF, which only traded during traditional market hours. The move to BUIDL allowed for instant settlement on any day. This collaboration between Ondo Finance and BlackRock demonstrates the convergence of traditional finance and cryptocurrencies: institutional players such as BlackRock actively participate in the cryptocurrency and RWA markets. It also highlights the potential for tokenization to improve settlement times and increase accessibility for a wider range of investors. BlackRock is setting an example to some other large investors on how to tokenize their assets through cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. BlackRock has also significantly increased its investment in Bitcoin over the past year. This is partly due to strategic partnerships with MicroStrategy and Coinbase. As of April 2024, BlackRock holds 274462 BTC worth $17 billion in its spot Bitcoin ETF. This amount is more than MicroStrategy, which holds 193k BTC. It is important to note that MicroStrategy was previously the top institutional Bitcoin investor, but now the BlackRock ETF has surpassed it in terms of BTC. BlackRock Strategy BlackRock's bitcoin investment strategy includes partnerships with major players in the cryptocurrency space. For example, in 2023, BlackRock and Coinbase announced a partnership that will give BlackRock's institutional clients direct access to cryptocurrency trading, custody, prime brokerage, and reporting capabilities. The move was a significant step towards institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. BlackRock also has many stablecoins, which shows that it is ready to continue investing in altcoins. We expect a further market decline soon. Using Wintermute as an example, we can see how they are already here and now, preparing for the market decline, transferring their stablecoins to acquire altcoins further whenever possible, and exchanging Ethereum for stablecoins via Uniswap. Conclusion: Big Capital is preparing for a big altcoin fall and is emphasizing investing in RWA, NFT, Data Service, and AI. Large investment funds are preparing to tokenize their assets, and BlackRock, led by Larry Fink, is setting an example for other large investment funds. Following them, other funds are tokenizing their portfolios, but they are already on the paved rails. If you want to see more info on the funds, here's the link, platform.arkhamintelligence.com You can see my portfolio at the link below. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
10
AMAZON Daily, Weekly & Monthly analysis, Bullish OutlookAMZN price is forming a Bullish Head & Shoulder pattern. and RSI also made a break of the descending trendline If we look at weekly chart, price is moving in an ascending channel moving upwards, and price is also above support If we look at Monthly time-frame, price broke above trendline and is moving upwards Trade Wisely *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Stargazer_fx
3
The Wyckoff Method working or no?Below is the exact distribution chart I've written a lot about the Wakoff method, now we see one of the most standardized distributions, link www.tradingview.com but if you open your eyes it's distribution for some and accumulation for others - now almost every week there are reports that Black Rock has more and more bitcoins - maybe all the bitcoins are just being transferred from other smaller agents. But the bottom line remains the same big players are here and they are going to make a lot of money. The cryptocurrency market is still a small 1.5 TRL $. In my previous posts with fractals, I stayed with the opinion that we have a blue scenario - LINK But this is not about fractals But after analyzing the chart and seeing the wyckoff on it I couldn't help but share it with you - publishing this post doesn't mean I believe it, but the correction looks logical - the other question is how exactly it will happen with the renewal of local highs or not. Below I will show two distributions superimposed on the chart and they are slightly different Whatever charts they show you on TV or other social networks, follow your trading plan, I buy back altcoins after 30% correction and wait for the final impulsive upward movement without extra passengers. I am not going to short All these charts are for you to think, and maybe it's just another horizontal correction and after it the upward movement will continue until September 2025. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
29
Bitcoin and Gold ETFHi. Happy new year everyone! As you can see on the chart bitcoin can partially repeat the gold fractal, at least a few analysis on the fractal coincide, pay attention to the blue fractal. I think yesterday's pumping of altcoin and decrease of bitcoin dominance will give an understanding that it is possible to enter the market, and the fomo will start in the next 10-14 days, after the crowd enters the market we will see the very correction in several movements. I will sell most of the altcoin portfolio and wait for the correction of 25-35% to increase the number of coins . Now it is difficult to say the target of the correction ( look at fibo) . Let's first wait for January 20-24. Best Regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
40
BITCOIN again rising upwards, if resistance breaks then $40KBTCUSD The price is firmly holding above the ascending trendline, and price is also above the support area around $36,500, and price again started rising upwards if the resistance around $38,000 breaks strongly then after correction/pullback price may attempt to hit $40,000 as the next target... Trade Wisely *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Stargazer_fx
10