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Excavo

EURUSD, price close to support structure, Buy analysisPlease Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... EURUSD price is close to support structure, If price holds above the support and breaks above the narrowing structure then after a pullback If price gives any bullish signal ,I expect the price to grow. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
5
BTCUSD, price moving in an ascending channel, where to BUY??Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... BTCUSD price is moving in an ascending channel, price rejected after touching the upper trendline of the channel & price bounced everytime after touching the lower trendline of the channel, after reaching the lower trendline If price continue to hold above the structure and starts to grow from the channel's trendline, I expect the price to move higher For Entry: Wait for the formation of Bullish Candlestick Pattern to close on 4hr timeframe for confirmation to Buy.. Trade it with proper Sl.. In case price breaks below the level then we can look for sell opportunity.. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Stargazer_fx
18
What is the Wyckoff Method? #2 Distribution SchematicDistribution Schematic In essence, the Distribution Schematics works in the opposite way of the Accumulation, but with slightly different terminology. Wyckoff method distribution schematic Phase A The first phase occurs when an established uptrend starts to slow down due to decreasing demand. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) suggests that the selling force is showing up, although still not strong enough to stop the upward movement. The Buying Climax (BC) is then formed by an intense buying activity. This is usually caused by inexperienced traders that buy out of emotions. Next, the strong move up causes an Automatic Reaction (AR), as the excessive demand is absorbed by the market makers. In other words, the Composite Man starts distributing his holdings to the late buyers. The Secondary Test (ST) occurs when the market revisits the BC region, often forming a lower high. Phase B Phase B of a Distribution acts as the consolidation zone (Cause) that precedes a downtrend (Effect). During this phase, the Composite Man gradually sells his assets, absorbing and weakening market demand. Usually, the upper and lower bands of the trading range are tested multiple times, which may include short-term bear and bull traps. Sometimes, the market will move above the resistance level created by the BC, resulting in an ST that can also be called an Upthrust (UT). Phase C In some cases, the market will present one last bull trap after the consolidation period. It’s called UTAD or Upthrust After Distribution. It is, basically, the opposite of an Accumulation Spring. Phase D The Phase D of a Distribution is pretty much a mirror image of the Accumulation one. It usually has a Last Point of Supply (LPSY) in the middle of the range, creating a lower high. From this point, new LPSYs is created - either around or below the support zone. An evident Sign of Weakness (SOW) appears when the market breaks below the support lines. Phase E The last stage of a Distribution marks the beginning of a downtrend, with an evident break below the trading range, caused by a strong dominance of supply over demand. Outcome: Naturally, the market doesn’t always follow these models accurately. In practice, the Accumulation and Distribution Schematics can occur in varying ways. There may be delays in some phases. Still, Wyckoff’s work offers a wide range of reliable techniques, which are based on his many theories and principles. It is certainly much more than a TA indicator. In essence, the Wyckoff Method allows investors to make more logical decisions rather than acting out of emotions. The extensive work of Wyckoff provides traders and investors a series of tools for reducing risks and increasing their chances of success. Still, there is no foolproof technique when it comes to investing. One should always be wary of the risks. Best regards EXCAVO
BEducation
by EXCAVO
18
What is the Wyckoff Method? Accumulation schematic #1 Wyckoff Event and Phases The Wyckoff Method was developed by Richard Wyckoff in the early 1930s. It consists of a series of principles and strategies initially designed for traders and investors. Wyckoff dedicated a significant part of his life teaching, and his work impacts much of modern technical analysis (TA). While the Wyckoff Method was originally focused on stocks, it is now applied to all sorts of financial markets. The three laws of Wyckoff The Law of Supply and Demand The first law states that prices rise when demand is greater than supply, and drop when the opposite is true. This is one of the most basic principles of financial markets and is certainly not exclusive to Wyckoff’s work. We may represent the first law with three simple equations: Demand > Supply = Price rises Demand < Supply = Price drops Demand = Supply = No significant price change (low volatility) In other words, the first Wyckoff law suggests that an excess of demand over supply causes prices to go up because more people are buying than selling. But, in a situation where there is more selling than buying, the supply exceeds demand, causing the price to drop. Many investors who follow the Wyckoff Method compare price action and volume bars as a way to better visualize the relation between supply and demand. This often provides insights into the next market movements. The Law of Cause and Effect The second law states that the differences between supply and demand are not random. Instead, they come after periods of preparation, as a result of specific events. In Wyckoff's terms, a period of accumulation (cause) eventually leads to an uptrend (effect). In contrast, a period of distribution (cause) eventually results in a downtrend (effect). Wyckoff applied a unique charting technique to estimate the potential effects of a cause. In other terms, he created methods of defining trading targets based on the periods of accumulation and distribution. This allowed him to estimate the probable extension of a market trend after breaking out of a consolidation zone or trading range (TR). The Law of Effort vs. Result The third Wyckoff law states that the changes in an asset’s price are a result of an effort, which is represented by the trading volume. If the price action is in harmony with the volume, there is a good chance the trend will continue. But, if the volume and price diverge significantly, the market trend is likely to stop or change direction. For instance, imagine that the Bitcoin market starts to consolidate with a very high volume after a long bearish trend. The high volume indicates a big effort, but the sideways movement (low volatility) suggests a small result. So, there is a lot of Bitcoins changing hands, but no more significant price drops. Such a situation could indicate that the downtrend may be over, and a reversal is near. Wyckoff’s Schematics The Accumulation and Distribution Schematics are likely the most popular part of Wyckoff’s work - at least within the cryptocurrency community. These models break down the Accumulation and Distribution phases into smaller sections. The sections are divided into five Phases (A to E), along with multiple Wyckoff Events, which are briefly described below. Accumulation Schematic Wyckoff method accumulation schematic Phase A The selling force decreases, and the downtrend starts to slow down. This phase is usually marked by an increase in trading volume. The Preliminary Support (PS) indicates that some buyers are showing up, but still not enough to stop the downward move. The Selling Climax (SC) is formed by an intense selling activity as investors capitulate. This is often a point of high volatility, where panic selling creates big candlesticks and wicks. The strong drop quickly reverts into a bounce or Automatic Rally (AR), as the excess supply is absorbed by the buyers. In general, the trading range (TR) of an Accumulation Schematic is defined by the space between the SC low and the AR high. As the name suggests, the Secondary Test (ST) happens when the market drops near the SC region, testing whether the downtrend is really over or not. At this point, the trading volume and market volatility tend to be lower. While the ST often forms a higher low in relation to the SC, that may not always be the case. Phase B Based on Wyckoff’s Law of Cause and Effect, Phase B may be seen as the Cause that leads to an Effect. Essentially, Phase B is the consolidation stage, in which the Composite Man accumulates the highest number of assets. During this stage, the market tends to test both resistance and support levels of the trading range. There may be numerous Secondary Tests (ST) during Phase B. In some cases, they may produce higher highs (bull traps) and lower lows (bear traps) in relation to the SC and AR of Phase A. Phase C A typical Accumulation Phase C contains what is called a Spring. It often acts as the last bear trap before the market starts making higher lows. During Phase C, the Composite Man ensures that there is little supply left in the market, i.e., the ones that were to sell already did. The Spring often breaks the support levels to stop out traders and mislead investors. We may describe it as a final attempt to buy shares at a lower price before the uptrend starts. The bear trap induces retail investors to give up their holdings. In some cases, however, the support levels manage to hold, and the Spring simply does not occur. In other words, there may be Accumulation Schematics that present all other elements but not the Spring. Still, the overall scheme continues to be valid. Phase D Phase D represents the transition between Cause and Effect. It stands between the Accumulation zone (Phase C) and the breakout of the trading range (Phase E). Typically, Phase D shows a significant increase in trading volume and volatility. It usually has a Last Point Support (LPS), making a higher low before the market moves higher. The LPS often precedes a breakout of the resistance levels, which in turn creates higher highs. This indicates Signs of Strength (SOS), as previous resistances become brand new supports. Despite the somewhat confusing terminology, there may be more than one LPS during Phase D. They often have increased trading volume while testing the new support lines. In some cases, the price may create a small consolidation zone before effectively breaking the bigger trading range and moving to Phase E. Phase E Phase E is the last stage of an Accumulation Schematic. It is marked by an evident breakout of the trading range, caused by increased market demand. This is when the trading range is effectively broken, and the uptrend starts. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
52
AUDNZD, broke descending trendline and resistance, buy setup...Please Support this Idea with LIKE if it is Useful.... AUDNZD price is broke above support/resistance structure and also broke descending trendline, If price continue to hold above the structure, I expect the price to move higher For Entry: Wait for the formation of Bullish Candlestick Pattern to close on 4hr timeframe for confirmation to Buy.. Trade it with proper Sl.. In case price breaks below the level then we can look for sell opportunity.. Push LIKE & SUPPORT the Idea... *The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of assisting traders to make independent investment decisions
Long
by Stargazer_fx
8
Stocks Up, VIX Up – How Can That Be?Markets love simple narratives. One of the simplest is that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the market’s fear gauge. If you think of VIX in those terms you would expect to see VIX fall when the market rises. It seems logical, right? If markets are going up, then investors are clearly less fearful, so the “fear gauge” should fall. While that is often the case, it is hardly a necessity. And when you see the opposite, there is usually a good reason. In this case, earnings and the election are the reason. For starters, it is important to understand that VIX is NOT the market’s fear gauge. The VIX Index is calculated by the CBOE, and it is crucial to consider their definition for that product: “The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPXSM) call and put options.” (Source: www.cboe.com) Do you see the word “fear” mentioned in that description? No. Volatility is a mathematical construct, which I described in greater detail here. To be fair, VIX does tend to rise when markets decline and fall when markets rise. You may have heard the old adage, “markets take the stairs to the attic and the elevator to the basement.” Rising markets tend to grind higher and fewer investors feel the need to hedge with options. On the other hand, falling markets tend to be punctuated by sharp drops and investors belatedly remember that options can provide the protection that they may otherwise lack. A steadily rising market tends to be accompanied by a falling VIX, especially if investors perceive calm markets ahead. Conversely, a falling market tends to see spikes in that index as investors clamor for hedges. Patterns like that gave rise to the notion that VIX is the market’s fear gauge. Yet sometimes markets are caught in a pattern of rapid movement. On a morning like today, with SPX leaping 1.5%, the rise is hardly part of a quiet grind higher. Using the Rule of 16, that would translate to a 24% annualized volatility – not far below today’s 28 VIX level. It is a sharp reaction to the seemingly paradoxical notions that: The President is doing better after his initial COVID-19 diagnosis His illness improves the likelihood for another round of fiscal stimulus Investors are growing more comfortable with the potential for a “blue wave” electoral result where Democrats regain control of the White House and Senate. Yet markets seem to be bearing in mind that: The President’s recovery is far from fully assured The Senate is out of session until October 19th because of COVID and the House is out of session for re-election campaigns. A well-respected political consultant told me this weekend that he puts a 40% chance on a deal before Election Day The “blue wave” is likely to raise the prospects for fears of a capital gains hike next year. Stocks often stumble ahead of a capital gains hike as investors opt to take profits to avoid the tax. Remember also a key feature of VIX: It is designed to measure the market’s expectation of 30 day volatility. With the calendar turning to October, there is much for investors to digest over the coming 30 days. Yes, Election Day is now only 29 days away. But remember, stocks need to pass through earnings season between now and then. Those often prove to be periods when traders expect higher volatility, and the combination of the uncertain economic picture and the heavy concentration of mega-cap stocks at the tops of the major indices will do little to diminish those expectations. Hence, we see VIX higher despite the rise in today’s major equity indices. Yes it is convenient to think of VIX as the market’s fear gauge. But you now have the tools to understand why that is at best an incomplete understanding of that key index. Thank you Steve Sosnick Best regards EXCAVO
TVC:VIX
by EXCAVO
43
Golden and Death CrossesThe most popular and simplistic way to use moving averages is to divide the market into a bullish or a bearish one based on a cross. Even today, financial newspapers refer to these crosses as being really important and defining for a market. In order to look for a golden or a death cross, a daily timeframe needs to be open on the financial product one is interested in trading. In our case, let’s use the daily chart on the BTC/USD. The next thing to do is to apply two different moving averages on the chart: one that takes into account 100 as a period (MA100), and one that considers 50 as a period (MA50). This means that MA100 is plotting a value based on the values of the last 100 days, while the MA50 one is taking into account only the last 50 days. The overall idea to interpret a market is quite simple: When the MA50 moves above the MA100, or it makes a cross, this cross is called a golden cross. It means that from that moment on the overall market turned bullish, and so buyers should dominate that market. The opposite is true as well: When the MA50 crosses the MA100 to the downside, the cross that is formed is called a death cross, and signals a bearish environment in the period ahead. The BTC/USD chart below shows both golden and death crosses, as the MA50 (the red line) crosses above or below the MA100 (the white one). Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by EXCAVO
16
30.9.2020 - Binance Coin (BNB / USD)Hi Traders! Today, we look at a specific trade we found on the BNB / USD pair. This trade is on a 4-hour chart and is short. What does it mean? This means, that we will speculate on a decline in the price of BNB coin. Why? 1. BNB is at a strong resistance of USD 28 - 29. This area is very strong resistance on our chart. 2. We also see the first rejection and the first red candles on this resistance. 3. RSI divergence - if we look at RSI, we see that the chart is falling while the price has reached a new maximum. This happens quite often in cryptocurrencies. 4. Trendline - we have not yet broken this, but we assume that we will see it in the coming hours. We mentioned 4 points above why the BNB price could fall. However, technical analysis is, of course, a game of statistics and probability. Thus, the BNB has a high probability of a decline, which, however, does not provide any guarantee that this will be the case. As for the zone where the price could reach in the event of a decline, we see the values of USD 24 - 25 as the first stop. May the crypto be with you!
BINANCE:BNBUSDShort
by DolleroTechnology
BitcoinBitcoin had reached $12000 , then we saw a 20% dropdown. Then there had been a rebound (growth) to the mirror level, from which we made another move down to the lower support line of the upward channel. Triangle has formed with an upper resistance line (mirror level) and a support line (channel's support line). As a rule, such patterns (triangles) signal about continuation of a given trend. The next horizontal level is near $9500 (there is also a 38.2% Fibonacci level). There is another scenario: if we do not break the support line of the upward channel and we will continue an uptrend. At the top, we have a resistance of $12000. Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
53
23.9.2020 - Bitcoin (BTC / USD)Hi Traders! In today's analysis, we will look at BTC / USD. We have seen a significant drop in recent days, so you will definitely be interested in looking at the overall situation. When we look at this chart and think about world markets, we think Bitcoin got into a bull-run. We are above the trendline, above MA21 and we have been creating higher lows for several months now. We must also not forget the halving and previous cycles. In terms of technical analysis and market cyclicality, we are therefore in a bull-run. Warning! However, this does not mean that the price cannot fall. COVID and the March slump in the markets caused Bitcoin to significantly copy the S&P500 index. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are therefore also clearly linked to movements in world markets. If we only look at the analysis and fundamentals of Bitcoin, we are clearly bullish. However, if we look at the markets globally - if the S&P500 falls, then it is highly likely that Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market will also fall. You can see 2 strong supports marked on the chart: 1. Level at USD 8,098 - 8,810. 2. MA200 - on the weekly chart, it is the strongest MA, which caught us on the bottom on USD 3,000 and 4,000. It is currently worth approximately USD 6,600. May the crypto be with you!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by DolleroTechnology
17.9.2020 - Chainlink (LINK / USD)Hi Traders! Today we will take a look at the popular cryptocurrency - Chainlink (LINK). In the spring and summer, its growth aroused huge interest. After the March declines, it was around USD 1.28. It reached its absolute maximum in mid-August at USD 20.10. We are talking about a growth of about 1 460% in half a year. That was what brought Chainlink a lot of attention. But how will it develop further? We are currently at USD 11.16. We see the values of 8.97 - 9.80 USD and then 6.30 - 7.07 USD as the two absolute most important supports. How do we know that the downtrend is ending? First of all, we must realize again the 3 basic cycles - growth - decline - consolidation. This chart passed through extreme growth, a strong decline, and now there should be a phase of consolidation, ie moving to the side. The uptrend will, therefore, be definitively confirmed only at the time when we break-up both trendlines of the chart. Looking at RSI, we would like to see a drop to the extreme zone, which would mean a decrease in support on the chart and then a move up. LINK has undergone a correction of about - 50%, which could be enough, but in terms of the time we still see space to move sideways. May the crypto be with you!
Long
by DolleroTechnology
4
Sensorium (SENSO/USDT)SENSO broke through the resistance line of the falling wedge. It moves in an upstream channel. The next target is near the previous high and 61.80% Fibonacci level. The second is the resistance line of the channel. SENSO is an ERC-20 token used as the in-platform currency of Sensorium Galaxy — the social VR platform: - Funded ~ $100+ mln as of 2020; - Founded by Forbes-listed billionaire Mikhail Prokhorov; - Exclusive partner of music streaming service Tidal owned by JAY-Z, Lil Wayne, Rihanna, Calvin Harris, Daft Punk, and Chris Martin; - Sensorium runs a joint program with Epic Games; - Support of world-famous artists and producers like Yann Pissenem (creator of the world’s #1 and #3 nightclubs Ibiza Ushuaia and Hi Ibiza); - Public release expected H1 2021; - SENSO is traded on Bittrex, KuCoin, and Bitcoin.com, HitBTC. Latest News and Fundamental Analysis: 1. Jay-Z's Tidal bought $7 million worth of SENSO tokens 2. Sensorium launched an accelerator with Epic Games (Sep 10) 3. Listing on Bittrex Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
3
Bitcoin. Who and Why created it?The 21st-century phenomenon is the private digital currencies, it is one of the varieties of alternative money. For the last century, banks have defended their monopoly on the money issue, which is fixed in the laws of countries. When private digital currencies such as Bitcoin emerged, banks came back swinging hard. Initially, they said that it was not legitimate, it was necessary to close it, but it was difficult to halt the process of cryptocurrencies popularization. It is the peer-to-peer closed networks, the participants interact with each other horizontally. No administrative structure, regulation, or supervision. The authorities can't handle with digital currencies, so it is better to legalize and try to get it out of the darknet. This is a very long legalization process. Government authorities create their own digital currencies in order not to lose financial control over people. Bitcoin networks are visible, it is not difficult to identify the participant who transfers BTC. In 2013-14 there was a large Silk Road was an online black market and the first modern darknet market, best known as a platform for selling illegal drugs. American state structures tracked them. What's this for? Their one version - Bitcoin is an ideal tool for financing terrorism, the shadow-black business. In my opinion, it is the unconvincing argument, cash is a more efficient element of securing such transactions. Digital currencies are a tool to undermine traditional banking systems. Best regards EXCAVO
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
79
9.9.2020 - Cardano (ADA / USD)Hi Traders! Today we look at the popular cryptocurrency Cardano in the analysis. First, however, we would comment on the last analysis of Bitcoin, where we predicted the September declines and this analysis turned out absolutely perfectly! But let's move to Cardano. This coin did not pass the September fall either. ADA has already written off about 48% of its HIGH. We see values between USD 0.0769 - 0.0902 as very strong support. This is a zone where it would be wise to buy this coin. First of all, we have increased volumes and structure there. Secondly, the original trendline also affects us there. When we take a look at the RSI indicator, we still have space to fall into the extreme zone. From the RSI point of view, overcoming the upward trendline will be absolutely key. In addition, the MA200, which is also approaching us very slowly will act as support. May the crypto be with you!
BINANCE:ADAUSD
by DolleroTechnology
13 Recommendations for Traders1. You should not expect that the loss-making trades will ultimately lead to a reversal and profit. You should not build up a position on it, proving to yourself that you are right. The best solution would be to exit the position and accept your losses, as they are inevitable in stock trading. 2. Stop loss and take profit should be based on the market situation, not financial opportunities. If you need to set a stop longer than your deposit allows, the trade should be canceled. 3. Entry and exit points should be objectively justified. 4. Do not enter the market during the high volatility period - the pursuit of the large profits does not always end as a trader would like to. 5. Not all bear market strategies are bullish. 6. A canceled buy signal may be a sell signal as well as vice versa. 7. It is always easier to lose money than to make money on trading. 8. If the response to the news does not instantaneously appear on the market, perhaps it will follow in the future and will have more serious consequences. 9. To increase the likelihood of a successful trade, it is necessary to enter it with a little delay and exit it without waiting for the change in the profitable movement. 10. When a crowd enters into a trade it is time to exit. 11. If you have a feeling of anxiety you should close the trade and continue trading keeping a cool head. 12. Success is a prosperous series, not a single trade. 13. If the series of losing trades are going on, it is worth to take a break. This will allow you to gather your thoughts and, possibly, turn the tide. Best regards EXCAVO
Education
by EXCAVO
20