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Excess

SPX hitting huge excess area, which way will it go next?As you can see, the price is sitting in a large excess range, trying to push higher with the bullish momentum since the opening. Looks like it is feeling lots of selling pressure. But if we can break up and into the higher naked value area, there is great opportunity for a bull run to the value area high. Otherwise, we might go back to the value area from yesterday's price action. What's your take?? Will we go up or down?
SP:SPX
by PtGambler
Using Shifting Value / Control Point for Trading.Trying to maneuver our way into how to enter actual trades during this chapter. Talks about reversal patterns and candles are happening. The eventual talk about how "not everything is textbook" and "you just have to use your best judgement" is also being aired. He keeps talking about selling when price is in the upper area of the channel. Probability states this author is high on his own supply. If it's an uptrend I'm buying. That's where it stops for me. Staying patient though :)
NASDAQ:CDMO
by emehoke
Practice Labeling Initiative and Responsive Price Action.Rounding out Chapter 1 of the book "Price Action Breakdown..." I am asked to label moves as initiative and responsive based on how the author has described initiative and responsive. From his perspective initiative is when buyers/sellers decide that price is no longer agreeable and take the initiative to move it up or down, hence the name initiative. Responsive is when price pokes out of a Value Area only to come back into it abruptly (see excess price/tails). Another way to think of this would be trend continuation moves vs movement back towards control point. This lesson didn't really hit home for me. I still think the point of control is the most valuable bit of information I have gleaned from this book so far, but I am waiting to hear how the author will work initiative vs responsive into the context they are building. I can definitely see why traders are comfortable in the value area. Trading the initiative moves makes me feel like I'm about to get on a terrifying carnival ride and there's nothing to hang on to. That'll do it for today.
CBOT:ZSK2021Long
by emehoke
November 22 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: $3,580 Balance-Area Boundary, $3,506.25 Excess Low. Technical: After an initiative upside drive on news that another COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine developed by Moderna Inc (NASDAQ: MRNA) was 94.5% effective, U.S. index futures pared gains as participants struggled to maintain higher prices, evidenced by the non-presence of committed buying and low-excess at the edges of balance. Given that Friday’s session failed to negate Wednesday’s spike liquidation by moving back into the micro-composite high-volume node at $3,557, the fairest price to do business during the prior week’s balancing activity, initiative sellers remain in control. As a result, knowing that prior end-of-day spikes were the result of weak-handed, short-term buyers liquidating in panic, the selling moved prices away from value and didn’t attract increased participation, and Friday was a monthly options expiry, traders can carry forward the following framework. If the auction remains in or below the prior selling activity, then initiative sellers remain in control and the liquidation could be the start of a new trend lower, confirmed by trade beyond the $3,506.25 excess low. Otherwise, there is the potential for a failed break-down in which participants rotate back over the $3,580 balance boundary. Fundamental: In a commentary, BlackRock discussed the staying power of growth stocks after the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic. We believe this year brought a sort of forced adoption necessary for future business survival, a dynamic likely to continue for companies that want to be competitive in a post-COVID world. That means demand could continue to edge higher for providers of these products and services. One example: Many consumers swapped gym memberships for connected home fitness equipment. The initial demand spike may recede, but many of these consumers will be multi-year subscription payers and likely to become more firmly entrenched in an ecosystem of products offered by a certain company. Simply put, BlackRock suggests trends supercharged during the pandemic have been in place for years, providing them staying power. The COVID-19 acceleration liquidated the market of those businesses not equipped to survive disruption, thereby allowing those that remain greater market share. Key Events: Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash, Fed Daly Speech, Fed Evans Speech. Tuesday: House Price Index MoM, CB Consumer Confidence, Fed Bullard Speech, Fed Williams Speech, Fed Clarida Speech. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Good Orders MoM, GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est, Continuing Jobless Claims, Core PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Corporate Profits QoQ Prel, Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd Est, Goods Trade Balance Adv, Initial Jobless Claims, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average, PCE Prices QoQ 2 Est, Core PCE Price Index YoY, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final, PCE Price Index YoY, Core PCE Price Index MoM, Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Final, Michigan Inflation Expectations Final, New Home Sales MoM, PCE Price Index MoM, Personal Income MoM, Personal Spending MoM, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Minutes. Recent News: The gap between vaccine hopes and pandemic reality poses market hazard. reut.rs Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) files COVID-19 vaccine application to the U.S. FDA. reut.rs Fannie, Freddie regulator looks to end government control before Trump exits. reut.rs EM looks to 2021 as Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) adds bullish calls. bloom.bg The second lockdown weakened U.K.’s growth and fiscal outlook materially. bit.ly The EU digital chief, tech giants call on new rules rescheduled to December 2. reut.rs G20 leaders have pledged to fund the fair distribution of COVID-19 vaccines. reut.rs Recent FSB updates won’t change capital requirements for important banks. bit.ly New COVID-19 virus restrictions heighten downside risk for European banks. bit.ly Drop in associated gas production offers a lifeline for pure-play gas producers. bit.ly Technology startups are looking to raise more after the COVID-19 disruption. bit.ly World Reimagined: Nasdaq on what the new economy looks like post-COVID. bit.ly Consumers are looking at new ways to get health care, buy cars, eat and work. on.wsj.com How operating leverage may help to narrow yield spreads as COVID subsides. bit.ly If Democrats win the runoffs for GA’s two Senate seats, expect larger stimulus. bit.ly How a broader equity market rally would help enhance corporate credit quality. bit.ly The Fed chief suggests it is too soon to put away its emergency recovery tools. bloom.bg Options markets show risks over the next twelve months reduced considerably. bit.ly The third-quarter bullish earnings cycle should not be dismissed by the market. bloom.bg Key Metrics: Sentiment: 44.4% Bullish, 29.3% Neutral, 26.4% Bearish as of 11/18/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 2,325,158,176 as of 11/13/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.8% as of 11/20/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
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