ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Differences and Advantages ETFs vs Mutual Funds: Differences and Advantages
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds are two of the most popular investment options, each offering unique features and advantages. While both provide access to diversified portfolios, their differences in structure, management, and trading make them suitable for different strategies. This article breaks down the key distinctions between exchange-traded funds vs mutual funds and how to choose between them.
What Are ETFs?
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, are investment vehicles that allow traders to access a diverse range of assets through a single product. An ETF is essentially a basket of investments—such as stocks, bonds, or commodities—that typically tracks the performance of an index, sector, or specific theme. For example, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) follows the S&P 500 index, providing exposure to the largest companies listed on US stock exchanges.
What sets ETFs apart is how they’re traded. Unlike mutual funds, which are only bought or sold at the end of the trading day, ETFs trade on stock exchanges throughout the day, just like individual shares. This means their prices fluctuate as demand and supply change, giving traders the flexibility to enter or exit positions at market prices.
ETFs are known for their cost-effectiveness, as most are passively managed to mirror the performance of an index rather than exceed it. This passive structure usually leads to lower management fees compared to actively managed funds. Additionally, ETFs are often transparent, with their holdings disclosed daily, so investors know exactly what they’re buying.
ETFs come in various types, from those focused on specific sectors, like technology or healthcare, to broader options covering entire economies or bond markets. This variety makes them a popular choice for traders and investors looking to diversify or target specific market opportunities.
What Are Mutual Funds?
Mutual funds are investment products that pool money from multiple investors to create a diversified portfolio, typically managed by a professional fund manager. These funds invest in a wide range of assets, including stocks, bonds, and other securities, depending on the fund’s objective. For instance, an equity mutual fund focuses on stocks, while a bond fund invests primarily in fixed-income securities.
One defining feature of mutual funds is their pricing. Unlike ETFs, mutual funds aren’t traded on stock exchanges. Instead, they are bought and sold at the fund’s net asset value (NAV), which is calculated at the end of each trading day. This makes them more suited to long-term investment strategies.
Mutual funds often appeal to investors looking for a hands-off approach. The fund manager handles the selection and management of assets, aiming to achieve the fund’s stated goals—whether that’s generating income, preserving capital, or achieving long-term growth.
However, this active management comes with higher fees compared to ETFs. These costs include management fees and sometimes additional charges like entry or exit loads, which can eat into returns over time.
Mutual funds also often require a minimum investment, making them less accessible for some investors. That said, they offer a wide variety of options, from sector-specific funds to diversified portfolios, providing flexibility for different investment goals and risk preferences.
Are There Differences Between an ETF and a Mutual Fund?
ETFs and mutual funds share similarities—they both allow investors to pool money into diversified portfolios. However, the differences between ETFs and mutual funds can significantly impact which one is better suited to an investor’s goals.
Trading and Pricing
ETFs are traded on stock exchanges continuously during market hours, similar to individual shares. Price fluctuations are based on market demand and supply. In contrast, mutual funds are priced only once per day after the market closes, based on the fund’s net asset value (NAV). This makes ETFs more appealing for those seeking flexibility and the ability to react to market movements, while mutual funds cater to long-term investors less concerned with intraday price changes.
Management Style
ETFs are mostly passively managed, designed to track the performance of a specific index, sector, or asset class. Mutual funds, on the other hand, often feature active management. This involves fund managers selecting assets to outperform the market, which can offer potential opportunities for higher returns but also comes with increased costs.
Fees and Costs
ETFs typically come with a lower expense ratio compared to mutual funds, making them more cost-efficient. This is due to their passive management approach and lower operational costs. Mutual funds may charge higher fees to cover active management and administrative expenses. Additionally, mutual funds may have extra costs like sales charges or redemption fees, whereas ETFs incur standard brokerage commissions.
Liquidity
When considering mutual funds versus ETFs, liquidity becomes a critical factor, as ETF prices change intraday, while mutual funds are limited to end-of-day pricing. This difference can influence how quickly you can access your funds.
Tax Efficiency
ETFs tend to be more tax-efficient because of their structure. When investors sell ETF shares, transactions occur directly between buyers and sellers on the exchange, limiting taxable events. In mutual funds, redemptions often require the fund manager to sell securities, which can result in capital gains distributed to all investors in the fund.
Minimum Investment
Mutual funds often require a minimum initial investment, which can range from a few hundred to thousands of dollars. ETFs, however, don’t have such requirements—traders can purchase as little as a single share, making them more accessible for those with smaller starting capital.
ETF CFD Trading
ETF CFD trading offers a flexible way for traders to speculate on the price movements of exchange-traded funds without the need to buy them on stock exchanges. CFDs, or Contracts for Difference, are derivative products that track the price of an ETF, allowing traders to take positions on whether the price will rise or fall. This approach is particularly appealing for short-term speculation, making it a useful complement to traditional long-term ETF or mutual fund investing.
Flexibility
One of the standout features of ETF CFDs is their flexibility. Unlike investing directly in ETFs, CFD trading enables you to capitalise on price fluctuations without owning ETF shares. Traders can go long if they anticipate a rise in the ETF’s value or short if they expect a decline. This ability to trade in both directions can potentially create opportunities in both bullish and bearish markets. Moreover, CFDs allow for trading over shorter timeframes like 1-minute or 5-minute charts, providing potential opportunities for scalpers and day traders.
Leverage
Leverage is another significant feature of ETF CFDs. With leverage, traders can gain larger exposure to an ETF’s price movements with smaller initial capital. For example, using 5:1 leverage, a $1,000 position would control $5,000 worth of ETF exposure. However, you should remember that while this magnifies potential returns, losses are also amplified, making risk management a critical component of trading CFD products.
Costs
Actively managed ETFs can charge expense ratios to cover management and operational costs. CFDs eliminate these fees, as traders don’t directly invest in the ETF’s assets. However, both ETF investing and ETF CFD trading include brokerage fees or spreads.
Wider Range of Markets
With CFDs, traders can access a variety of global ETF markets through a single platform. This reduces the need to open accounts in different jurisdictions, saving on administrative and currency conversion costs.
CFD trading is popular among traders who want to take advantage of short-term price movements, diversify their strategies, or access ETF markets straightforwardly. While traditional ETFs are often favoured for long-term growth, ETF CFDs provide an active, fast-paced alternative for traders looking to react quickly to market changes.
Use Cases for ETFs and Mutual Funds
In comparing ETFs vs mutual funds, it’s important to recognise their use cases based on an investor’s goals, strategies, and time horizons.
ETFs
ETFs are used by investors seeking flexibility and real-time market engagement. They are attractive for those who want to take advantage of price movements or actively manage their portfolios. For example, an investor might focus on sector-specific ETFs, like technology or energy, to capitalise on industry trends. ETFs also offer a lower-cost option for diversification, making them useful for those building broad exposure across markets without significant capital.
Additionally, ETFs may be effective for hedging. An investor with exposure to a specific market segment can use an ETF to potentially offset risks, especially in volatile markets. For instance, during an anticipated downturn in equities, an inverse ETF could be used to possibly mitigate losses.
Mutual Funds
Mutual funds are popular among long-term investors prioritising professional management. Their hands-off approach makes them appealing to individuals who prefer not to monitor markets daily. For instance, someone saving for retirement might opt for a diversified mutual fund that balances risk and growth over time.
Mutual funds are also advantageous for accessing specialised strategies, such as actively managed funds focusing on niche markets or themes. While they typically involve higher fees, the tailored management can align with specific financial objectives.
Factors for Choosing Between ETFs and Mutual Funds
Selecting between mutual funds vs ETF options depends on an investor’s financial goals, trading style, and the level of involvement they are comfortable with in managing their investments.
- Time Horizon: ETFs are popular among short- to medium-term investors and traders who prefer flexibility and the ability to follow intraday price movement. Mutual funds, on the other hand, are mostly used by long-term investors focused on gradual growth or income over time.
- Cost Sensitivity: ETFs generally have lower expense ratios and no minimum investment requirements, making them cost-efficient. Mutual funds often involve higher management fees and, in some cases, additional charges like entry or exit fees, which can add up over time.
- Active vs Passive Management: If you’re looking for a hands-off approach with professional oversight, actively managed mutual funds might be more appealing. However, if you prefer to track indices or specific sectors at a lower cost, ETFs might be more suitable.
- Liquidity Needs: Investors who need quick access to their capital often prefer ETFs because they can be traded throughout the day. Mutual funds lack this intraday liquidity, as transactions are only processed at the trading day’s end.
The Bottom Line
Understanding the differences between mutual funds vs exchange-traded funds is crucial for selecting the right investment approach. ETFs offer flexibility and cost-efficiency, while mutual funds are popular among long-term investors seeking professional management. For those interested in ETF CFD trading, which allows traders trade in rising and falling markets, opening an FXOpen account provides access to a diverse range of ETF markets alongside competitive trading conditions.
FAQ
What Is an ETF vs Mutual Fund?
An ETF is a fund traded on stock exchanges, offering intraday liquidity and lower fees, typically tracking an index or sector. A mutual fund pools investor money for professional management, priced once at the end of a trading day at its net asset value per share.
Mutual Funds and ETFs: Differences
ETFs trade like stocks, are generally more cost-efficient, and offer intraday liquidity. Mutual funds are actively managed, have higher fees, and are designed for long-term investing with end-of-day pricing.
Is the S&P 500 an ETF or a Mutual Fund?
The S&P 500 itself is an index, not a fund. However, it can be tracked by both ETFs (like SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and mutual funds, offering similar exposure but with differing management styles and fee structures.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Exchangetradedfund
What Is an ETF and How Does ETF CFD Trading Work?What Is an ETF and How Does ETF CFD Trading Work?
Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, have gained significant popularity in recent years as a way to invest in a diversified portfolio of securities. But for the uninitiated, the world of ETFs can seem complex and overwhelming. So, what is an exchange-traded fund, and how does it work? In this article, we’ll cover everything you need to know about ETFs, the advantages and disadvantages, and we’ll explain how to trade ETF CFDs.
What Is an ETF and How Does It Work?
The ETF definition in investments is the following: exchange-traded funds (ETFs), sometimes called equity-traded funds, are financial products that track the performance of a specific index, commodity, or group of assets. ETFs are popular among individual and institutional investors thanks to their flexibility, low fees, and transparency.
Like stocks, ETFs are traded on exchanges. This means that you can buy ETF shares when the stock market is open. Note that you buy shares of a fund, not the fund itself. Unlike stocks, however, ETFs don’t focus on a single asset. Instead, ETFs consist of multiple assets and even different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash. Some ETFs are passively managed, meaning they’re designed to track a specific market or sector. Others are actively managed and have professional portfolio managers who choose which assets to include in the ETF.
ETFs are an effective way for traders and investors to diversify their positions. Because ETFs comprise a diverse range of securities, holders can gain exposure to different assets, markets, and sectors without having to trade each one individually. This can help reduce risk and volatility and potentially generate more stable returns over the long term.
Differences and Pros and Cons of ETFs vs Mutual Funds
While they share some similarities to mutual funds, one of the main differences between the two is that mutual funds are only traded at the end of the trading day according to their net asset value (NAV), while an ETF’s share price fluctuates throughout the day.
Mutual funds pool money from investors to invest in a range of assets and are often actively managed by a professional portfolio manager. This means they typically come with higher fees and a higher minimum investment requirement.
Generally speaking, ETFs are the more cost-effective and flexible option, as they offer lower expense ratios and allow for intraday trading. They also tend to be more tax efficient due to their reduced portfolio turnover rates. However, ETFs come with commissions, while mutual funds do not. Moreover, the passive management style of many ETFs can lead to lower returns compared to mutual funds, which aim to beat the market through active management.
ETF Types
There are many different types of ETFs out there that can be used to meet a wide variety of investment goals. Let’s look at some examples of exchange-traded funds.
Index ETFs
What is an ETF in the stock market? Equity ETFs are those that track a stock index. They vary in terms of the sectors, industries, company sizes, and countries they cover. Equity ETFs are divided into broad market and sector ETFs.
Broad Market ETFs
These ETFs track the performance of the entire market. They can be a useful tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the overall market without having to pick an individual instrument. One of the most significant broad-market ETFs is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF.
Sector ETFs
Sector ETFs offer investment in specific industries or areas of the market, like technology, healthcare, energy, and financials. These ETFs are ideal for investors looking to profit from the overall growth of an industry. Popular sector ETFs include the ARK Innovation ETF.
Bond ETFs
These ETFs invest in fixed-income securities such as government, corporate, and municipal bonds. Bond ETFs expose investors to the fixed-income market, which can be an effective tool for diversifying a portfolio. One of the bond ETFs is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF.
Commodity ETFs
Commodity ETFs invest in assets like gold, silver, oil, and other natural resources. Commodity ETFs offer investors easy access to the commodity market and can help them hedge during market downturns. SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) is an example of a commodity ETF.
Currency ETFs
These ETFs invest in foreign currencies and are used to gain exposure to a particular country’s currency or group of currencies, meaning they can be used to hedge against currency risk. Primary currency ETFs include the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund.
Leveraged ETFs
Leveraged ETFs use derivatives to provide investors with magnified exposure to the underlying assets, typically 2x, 3x, or 5x. For instance, a 2x leveraged ETF based on the S&P 500 would drop 2% if the S&P 500 fell by 1%. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF is one of the most popular leveraged ETFs.
Inverse ETFs
These ETFs allow buyers to invest in the inverse performance of the underlying asset. For example, an inverse ETF that tracks the S&P 500 would go up when the S&P 500 goes down. Inverse ETFs can be useful for hedging against market downturns but also shouldn’t be held long-term. An example of an inverse ETF is the ProShares Short S&P 500 ETF.
How to Trade ETF CFDs
Aside from buying ETFs on stock exchanges, you can trade them via CFDs. CFDs are derivative products that allow traders to speculate on the price movement of an underlying asset, such as an ETF. Unlike traditional ETF investing, ETF CFD trading does not involve owning the ETF itself. Instead, traders are exposed to the price movements of the underlying ETF when they open a position.
At FXOpen, we have dozens of ETF contracts for difference (CFDs) that are ideal for short-term trading.
One key benefit of CFD trading is the use of leverage, which allows traders to open larger positions with smaller amounts of capital. This can potentially amplify profits but also magnify losses. All of our ETF CFDs offer 1:5 leverage, so to open a $100 position, you’ll need $20 to cover the margin requirements.
Moreover, ETF CFDs can be opened long or short, allowing traders to profit from both rising and falling markets. This can be especially useful when looking to hedge against an existing position or take advantage of short-term market movements.
Unlike regular ETFs, CFDs are subject to overnight fees, which are charged for holding open positions overnight. However, the same as with regular ETFs, CFD traders receive dividends if applied. The dividend adjustment is positive for buy trades and negative for sell trades.
Consider a Trading Strategy
If you’re thinking of trading ETF CFDs, it’s important to have a trading strategy in place. One approach is a trend-following strategy, which involves identifying and entering in the direction of the trend of the underlying ETF. Many traders use technical analysis tools, like moving averages and trendlines, to help them gauge the direction of a trend.
Seasonal trend trading can also work particularly well for ETF CFDs. Traders using this strategy look at historical market data and identify trends that tend to occur during certain times of the year. For example, a retail sector-based ETF might perform well around the holiday season, so traders could use this expectation to guide the direction of their trade.
Some traders prefer breakout trading - taking positions in ETF CFDs when their prices break through key support or resistance levels. Breakout trading can be especially effective in ETF CFD trading because ETFs tend to be less volatile than individual stocks. This means that when an ETF breaks through a support or resistance level, it may continue in that direction for an extended period, providing traders with an opportunity to profit.
Trading ETF CFDs: Advantages and Disadvantages
While we’ve explained some of the key advantages and disadvantages of ETF CFD trading, there are other factors to consider. Here are some additional advantages and disadvantages of ETF CFDs to be aware of.
Advantages
Flexibility: ETF CFDs can be bought and sold quickly throughout the day, providing traders with the flexibility to adjust their positions in response to intraday market events.
Broad Exposure: ETF CFDs offer exposure to a wide range of global markets and sectors, meaning that traders can diversify their positions and speculate on the price movements of a market or sector as a whole rather than relying on a single asset.
Hedging: This broad exposure also allows traders to use ETF CFDs to hedge against their other positions and reduce their potential losses. For example, a trader long on tech stocks could use a technology-based ETF CFD to short the sector during earnings season to protect from downside risk.
Disadvantages
Only Tradeable During Specific Hours: ETF CFDs are only available to trade when their respective exchanges are open. This might only be 9:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. EST, whereas other types of CFDs, like forex CFDs, are available to trade 24/5.
Potential Liquidity Issues: During periods of high volatility or low volume trading hours, some ETF CFDs can suffer from poor liquidity. This can widen spreads, increase costs for traders, and heighten the risk of slippage.
Fund Closure: While rare, it is possible for an ETF to cease trading while you have an open CFD position. This would result in the liquidation of the position and the net profit or losses being realised. When combined with leverage, a forced liquidation could lead to significant losses.
Your Next Steps
Now that you have a solid understanding of ETFs and their CFD counterparts, you may wonder how to start trading them. Follow this step-by-step guide to get started:
1. Open an FXOpen Account: At FXOpen, we offer a wide range of ETF contracts for difference (CFDs) that you can begin trading in minutes.
2. Explore ETFs: The next step is to look for ETFs that align with your strategy. You can research factors like potential for growth and historical performance to help determine if an ETF is right for you. You may also want to consider elements like the ETF’s level of diversification and trading volume.
3. Place a Trade: Once you think you’ve found the ETF you want to trade, you can use one of four trading platforms at FXOpen to enter a position. This involves selecting the ETF CFD you want to trade, choosing the appropriate trade size, and setting stop losses to manage risk. At this stage, you could also set some targets for where you’d like to exit your trade.
4. Manage Risk: As your trade progresses, the only thing left to do is manage your position’s risk. You could do this by gradually moving your stop loss closer to breakeven, taking partial profits, and hedging your position with other ETF CFDs.
Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
COFF Long (+ I LOVE DRINKING COFFEE)LSE:COFF
WisdomTree Coffee is designed to enable investors to gain an exposure to a total return investment in coffee by tracking the Bloomberg Coffee Subindex (the "Index") and providing a collateral yield.
WisdomTree Coffee is an exchange traded commodity ("ETC"). Its securities can be created and redeemed on demand by authorised participants and traded on exchange just like shares in a company. The ETC is backed by swaps. The payment obligations of the swap counterparties to the Issuer are protected by collateral held which is marked to market daily. The collateral is held in segregated accounts at The Bank of New York Mellon. Details of the collateral held can be found in the Collateral section of the WisdomTree website (www.wisdomtree.com).
The essential features of ETF’s In this article, we’ll go over some fundamental concepts about exchange-traded funds (ETF’s) .
To comprehend what an ETF is and what its qualities are, we must first provide a brief overview of mutual funds.
A mutual fund is an investment company that pools money from investors to buy a variety of stocks, bonds, and other securities on their behalf.
A portfolio is a collection of the underlying constituents. The firms that create these mutual funds assign a manager to oversee the investments. The basic concept is to give smaller amounts of capital easy access to diversification through a single purchase. An investor purchases a piece of a portfolio of his choosing. From the perspective of an investor, the mutual fund is easy. They essentially submit the investment to the mutual fund corporation. If they use a brokerage account, they will see shares of the mutual fund appear in their account, or they will receive a statement directly from the firm revealing their fund position.
The ETF's are a type of mutual fund that incorporates a number of more contemporary features. The first ETF listed on the New York stock exchange (NYSE) in 1993 was created to track the S&P 500 index.
An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a pooled investment vehicle that is listed on a stock exchange, allowing investors to buy and sell its shares at a market-determined price during the trading day. They follow the same rules as any publicly traded stock, and they offer transparency and a central hub for all of their underlying asset classes. ETFs can be used to monitor the performance of an underlying index, commodity, or portfolio of assets. If you want to track a particular index, you don't have to buy shares in any of the companies that make up the index.
Let’s look at the characteristics of this product structure and why it is taking the investment world by storm. The main ones are:
1. Transparency
2. Exchange listing
3. Tax efficiency
4. Lower fees
5. Diversity
Transparency
All investors benefit from portfolio transparency because it protects them from risk. An investor must recognize that no other fund product on the market gives a daily accounting of the fund's holdings like the ETF. Portfolio holdings were traditionally only published quarterly or semiannually. ETFs make their portfolios available to the public on a daily basis.
Exchange listing
There are three major benefits of exchanging listing:
Standardization
Intraday trading
Liquidity
Standardization is a huge benefit for holding the same multi-asset portfolios all within the same account structure. Instead of having two separate parts of your portfolio with associated problems, you can now keep your bond position wrapped in an ETF structure within your investment account. You can also include your commodity piece as well as your alternate options.
Intraday trading has been a feature that has proven to be both beneficial and detrimental
Liquidity - Listing a product on an exchange and introducing it to a broader range of market participants in a standardized format will increase liquidity and reduce spreads beyond what was previously available. In the market, you can often see instances where the ETF price is trading between the underlying basket's "bid" and "ask" spread. The ability to access liquidity within the bid and ask of the underlying assets is a benefit that mutual fund portfolio managers and investors do not have.
Tax efficiency
The major tax advantage of the ETF structure within the portfolio management process derives from the concept of in-kind “creation” and “redemption.” The process is complicated and it has to do with the daily operations of the ETF in the primary and secondary market versus the ones of a mutual fund.
Lower fees
The introduction of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to the market has resulted in a large reduction in the fees that investors must pay in order to obtain a wide range of easy-to-manage exposures as building blocks for a portfolio. This is important for investors because it allows them to keep their positions without worrying about gains being distributed to other investors who are buying and leaving the ETF, as is the case with mutual funds.
Diversity
The thousands of exchange-traded funds presently available offer a wide range of exposures. Investors can choose from a wide range of ETFs to achieve their desired exposure. This could include anything from main indices to overseas fixed income, leveraged commodity bets, and everything in between. Traditional benchmarks are also evolving as a result of ETFs. ETFs are no longer bound by conventional index schemes. The industry has developed to question how each index is built and what benefit it provides to investors.
Trade with care.
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VXX ETF Hits Price Target!We wrote an article on our website and posted here on TradingView that the VXX looked ready for a big move to the upside. The VXX has hit the price target we suggested at $22. A more detailed analysis of this trade is on our website titled "Trading ETFs While Volatility Explodes Higher".
Investing in military tech--Make your portfolio more defensnsiveThe rise of populism is not necessarily something investors will relish politically, but it nevertheless brings opportunities for the adventurous.
By and large, populist leaders the world over like to spend more government money and they’re especially keen to spend taxpayers’ money on defence and state security. Like it or loathe it, it’s a trend clearly visible in countries as diverse as China, Poland and the US.
It is because of those populists that more liberal Europe is now having to spend more money on its Nato commitments — even relatively peace-loving Germany says it intends to get to 2 per cent of GDP levels in the not too distant future, though I wouldn’t hold my breath on that.
But there’s another big trend at work — how the disruptive technology sector is being sucked into the military industrial complex.
Giants such as Google may encounter internal resistance to getting involved in defence and security (it dropped out of Project Maven because of employee unrest) but the likes of Amazon and Microsoft have no such inhibitions. In fact, the two companies recently battled it out on a mammoth $10bn US defence contract called Project Jedi, which Microsoft won (not without controversy).
Insiders suggest Amazon is now increasing its commitment to defence and security technologies, chasing upstarts such as Palantir Technologies and Anduril (clearly Lord of the Rings fans founded both businesses) who have dominated this space until now.
The Americans are simply reacting to the obvious signals coming out of China, where big tech is being actively co-opted into a new high-tech defence and AI-enabled state security apparatus. The Chinese certainly seem to be ahead, but for investment purposes, it’s all but impossible for UK investors to find a way of playing this trend.
However, the US could respond by rekindling its love affair with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa), which has produced civilian by-products ranging from the first computer mouse to GPS navigation. Now there’s even talk in the press that UK government strategist Dominic Cummings wants to set up a Darpa equivalent in the UK.
For investors, this determination to upgrade both external and internal defences has resulted in a bonanza for shareholders. The table below shows returns for the broad defence and aerospace sector in the US market against those for the wider index and also tech-specific stocks.
As you can see, military stocks have nearly kept up with the fastest growing (software dominated) bit of the tech space, leaving returns for tech hardware and mainstream US stocks way behind.
The case for defence
Index-------------------------------------------------------5 year annualised return
S&P 500 Defence & Aerospace Index-------------------------17.54%
S&P 500 Technology Select Sector Indeex-------------------17.82%
S&P 500 Technology Hardware Select Sector Index-------- 7.55%
S&P 500 index----------------------------------------------------10.98%
XAR on the NYSE, that follows the big participants in this sector. It rose by a cracking 38 per cent in 2019 (the S&P 500 by contrast is up 29 per cent over the same period). Large companies such as Raytheon, United Technologies Corporation and Northrop Grumman are all pushing towards all-time highs.
Again, whether you like it or not, more money will be spent on police technologies, general surveillance and border security. That money will increasingly find its way into companies with a strong technology focus (as opposed to a more engineering-led platform approach pioneered by the military procurement giants).
Continuation Swing High from 1.0880 Part 2 EurUsd Rate the Euro Rate Continuation Swing High from Support Level at 1.0880 - the Rate may contain an additional 160 pip higher - Before Price will return to the 78% bar at 1.0801 at this stage within the trend this is only probable - There are two opinions possible here - Or the Rate may return to further highs - Seen at 1.1547 as the current monthly chart cycle a little short of my mark at 1.0801.
1.1547 is Seen as a Secure Resistance Level towards Price returning to the Lower Low end and Finalized Outcome through the month chart as A Completed Low Phase.
Strong Buy Signal on the U.S. Internet Stocks.The FDN (First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund) which essentially covers the U.S. Internet Stocks, is now comfortably trading above the MA50 on the 1D chart on strong bullish candle action (RSI = 69.026, MACD = 2.230, Highs/Lows = 3.3271). Through this price action a strong buy signal has emerged and has to do with the similarities of the mid 2018 - 2019 price action with the late 2015 - mid 2016 sequence. Not only the MA periods (Death Cross followed by a Golden Cross) and candle action (Highs, Lows, consolidation phases) are virtually identical but also the price ranges (-27% decline from highs).
If a +21.50% rise follows, then the peak of the current bullish sequence would be near 161.00. We are long on this asset.
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XLF: Strong buy opportunity.The Financial Select Sector SPDR is trading within t 1D Channel Up (RSI = 64.631, MACD = 0.090, Highs/Lows = 0.4050) and todays pull back is only a technical reaction to the RSI approaching 70.000 on 4H. Both the MA50 and MA200 are supporting which is a very bullish development. Our TP is 29.10.
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XLRE: Sell opportunity on recurring pattern.The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) reached a new All Time High today extending the aggressive bullish run since the start of the year. The candle pattern is very similar to the February - August 2016 when it made a peak after a +28.60% rise and declined below the MA200 with a first stop at -9%. The current price action appears to be following this pattern and is close to completing both the +28.60% rise parameter and the 175 day duration parameter. We are taking a short aiming at repeating the -9% initial decline (34.50) towards the MA200.
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GREK: Greece ETF, potential for +20% profit.GREK has broken upwards in late May following a Golden Cross formation in late April. The last 3 times a Golden Cross took place the ETF rose (on the cross date) by +8.40% once and roughly over +30% twice. Currently it is already up by +8.40% from the Golden Cross occurrence so if it starts breaking higher, we have a confirmation for an additional +20% rise, which puts the upside target at 11.45.
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TVIX: Sell opportunity on 1D.An identical pattern has been spotted on TVIX. This includes an initial hyper top above the 1D MA200 with a subsequent collapse below both the MA200 and MA50. A quick break above the MA50 again only comes as confirmation of the final bearish stage, the part we are at currently. Our target is 13.50.
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PSQ Proshares Trust: Short opportunity on monthly.PSQ is trading inside a 1M (monthly) Channel Down (RSI = 36.191, MACD = -3.690, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) which last December made its Lower High. A Death Cross (MA50 under MA200) formation occurred in March on 1D and after a 27.60 bottom, the price has been rebounding towards the MA200.
Last time the same pattern occurred was in 2016. The rebound resulted in testing and even marginally breaching the MA200 before collapsing to a new Lower Low and continuing to a very prolonged bearish sequence to October 2018.
We expect a similar price action and our short target is 25.00.
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UVXY: Long term Buy opportunity.The ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF is approaching the April bottom and the symmetrical Lower Low on the 1M Falling Wedge. Being oversold (RSI = 6.651, MACD = -1698.076) a strong cyclical rebound is expected on a very structured and recurring candle pattern. We are on a long term buy on UVXY with TP = 75.00.
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Vaneck Vectors ETF: Medium term sell opportunity.GDX has printed a Death Cross (MA50 crossing below the MA200) on a similar trading pattern as in 2016. The RSI price sequence is also identical, indicating that at least one more bearish sequence is due. With MACD turning at -0.277, it is an optimal opportunity to short. Our TP is 19.00.
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EEM ETF: Lower long term Buy opportunity.The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is on bearish 1W price action (RSI = 41.481, Highs/Lows = -1.8644), repeating a pattern last seen in April 2011 - May 2012. During that period the price was rejected at 44.90, crossed below the MA50 and MA200 and found support just over the 0.786 Fibonacci level before recovering 100%.
We expect a similar price behavior today as the price was rejected at 44.85 and has already crossed below the MA50. The crossing below the MA200 remains and the rebound above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, which puts the support around 39.50 - 39.60. Our target is 44.80.
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XLF ETF: Sell opportunity on 1D. A Golden Cross took place (MA50 crossing over the MA200) on 1D on the XLF. Although this is theoretically a bullish development, its has been bearish on 1D in the last two times that this was spotted. In fact the price lost around -3% from the top candle of the Golden Cross until it touched the MA50 again. This gives us a roughly 1 week window and short opportunity.
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