Get started

Exhaustion

NVDA running out of juice - SOXS here we comeJohn was an avid investor in the stock market, and he had been closely following the semiconductor industry for some time. Lately, there had been a lot of hype around artificial intelligence, and this had caused stock prices in the industry to soar. The technical formation of the chart looked good, and John had seen his investment in the semiconductor industry go up quite a bit. However, as time went by, John started to notice signs of exhaustion in the market. He realized that care needed to be taken to protect his investment, and so he decided to move up his stops or exit the position altogether. It wasn't an easy decision to make, but John knew that it was the right thing to do. Do the right thing. Don't be greedy. We're right by the 61.8 and above the 50 from the high to the low. The end.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by bitdoctor
Wave exhaustionThe main purpose of analyzing waves is to understand when the current wave is exhausted aka overextended aka overbought aka oversold. What is every1 seem to miss is that exhaustion is not based exclusively on "price gone too far", but also on "too much time passed" and "not much volume was traded" as well. That's one of the main reasons why your comparative analysis, divergences on so called "indicators" do not work properly. It simply can't. These methods do not gain time & volume information from the data. When you analyze order flow on any resolution, be it 1 minute, 5 years or tick chart, you're interested in 2 waves: current wave and *the very last (previous) wave in the same direction . * including the imaginary waves Don't forget to turn in log scale when it's needed! You compare these 2 as the current wave develops and keep updating the answer to the binary question, "which of these two waves is weaker". Strength of a wave = it's ability to continue. Every wave starts strong and goes weaker and weaker, the factors are: 1) Time. Horizontal size of a wave (in bars), more time (more bars) - weaker ; 2) Range. Vertical size of a wave, higher range - weake r; 3) Volume, or inferred volume. You sum up all the volume within a wave, or sum up all the bar sizes within a wave. Less volume - weaker .* * in order not to sum up anything within a wave yourself, here you can turn in volume/range bars and simply count em. And from that moment it's like "Best of 3" comparison. 1) Time. Wave A 10 bars, wave B 5 bars. Wave B is stronger; 2) Range. Wave A 546 points, wave B 890 points. Wave A is stronger; 3) Volume. Wave A 10k, wave wave B 8k. Wave A is stronger; So at that point, wave A was stronger = wave B was weaker. This will be giving you a binary answer which wave is weaker. When the current wave becomes weaker than the last wave in the same direction, current wave is considered exhausted. P.S.: wave start in time (first bar of the wave) is the level origin itself or the first bar that touched a level if we talked about a new wave starting from an already positioned level, or about a wave started after clearing a positioned level. The more you'll think about the more it'll make sense. An example. Remember seeing fast price jumps? After some, the price reverses very fast and goes back, after others prices continues in the direction of the jump. In most of the cases the current wave (the jump) gets exhausted in terms of price, but not exhausted in terms of time (the jump was very fast). So in terrms of time and price both waves are 50/50. What is different is volume. If the current wave (the jump) had a huge volume, overall it's still not exhausted, hence it continues. Sounds familiar? Sounds logical? Just the last simple and obvious thing, in most cases you won't need to calculate sum volumes/ranges, usually at the moment of analysis the current wave is already longer and higher than the previous one in the same direction, hence the current wave is already exhausted. Yessir
SP:SPXEducation
by gorx1
1
Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue?Primary Chart 1 : AMC Price on the Daily Chart with Significant Fibonacci Levels Noted Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue? Another short squeeze has successfully launched a few lucky traders into the stratosphere. Maybe more than a few if some take profits timely. AMC has risen about +183% above its low on May 12, 2022. In the past several days since July 27, 2022, it has risen about 99.06%. All signs point to another short squeeze similar to the prior ones. Even volume patterns look the same—albeit much smaller than prior volume patterns. The short squeeze could continue as it did in June 2021. Short squeezes don't necessarily stop because everyone things price has gone too high. This article does not take a position on whether AMC is destined to revisit this year's lows or make new all-time lows. And predicting the behavior of numerous market participants—the retail buyers looking for a squeeze and the short sellers looking for a flush—and analyzing how such behavior is affected by other macro issues such as interest rates and liquidity in light of tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy would be a futile endeavor. As a result, one may look to technical analysis to try to make a prediction about the probabilities. Note on Primary Chart 1 how the price patterns at the prior short squeeze on March 29, 2022, and today's short squeeze, look nearly identical. Compare the two yellow ellipses on Primary Chart 1 above. Both peak candlesticks have an extremely tall bullish candle preceding them. And both sport a long upper shadow (or wick). Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. This type of price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Upside breakouts, such as here with AMC, lock in unwary longs with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's books, he further explains that the "false break" that develops is " indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. In summary, the Pinocchio bar with a long upper shadow, especially when viewed along side other similar bars over the past year, imply that price has likely exhausted to the upside for the time being. Further support for exhaustion is evident. Note how the Fibonacci projection levels have provided strong support and resistance repeatedly since the all-time high in June 2021. Primary Chart 1 labels those levels and points out their operation as strong resistance on multiple occasions. The last two rally attempts occurred in December 2021 and March 2022. Both these rally attempts failed at the .50 Fibonacci projection (green line shown on Primary Chart 1). For the current rally, the price bars with the long upper shadow pierces the next Fibonacci level of importance in the sequence: the .618 level which lies just below the .50 level . This also supports at least a temporary pullback or consolidation. Additional evidence supports exhaustion. Note below how AMC's price has now risen to +5 ATR on the daily and its candle has a long upper shadow. Moves to +3 ATR are rarely sustainable for long much less +5ATR. In the chart below, note the location of price relative to the +3 ATR Keltner Channel. The +3 ATR KC is the outermost band on the upper edge of the KC bands. Supplementary Chart 2.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels Supplementary Chart 2.2: AMC's price relative to the +5 ATR band on the daily chart using Keltner Channels Finally, note the declining volume on each successive short squeeze. This suggests that the buying pressure has waned as short squeezes have continued following each major decline. Supplementary Chart 3.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels But the persistence of the buyers squeezing the shorts should be recognized as something that is a new force in markets since what occurred in 2021. Price could indeed push higher if enough collective buying force continues in stock and options markets sufficient to overwhelm all supply. Price can do a lot of things no one expects. But based on technical analysis alone, however, price likely falls lower from here. This author makes no argument that new lows will be reached. It will be important to watch the pullback to answer that question. A reasonable price target would seem to be 16.50 near the .618 retracement of the rally from the May 12, 2022, low to the August 8, 2022 high.
NYSE:AMC
by SquishTrade
38
Did Bitcoin BLOW It's Chances?As we've discussed in detail over our last few analysis episodes here on TradingView, Bitcoin did in fact look nice. All was strongly laid up for a big pump, but rather than graciously bouncing off the trampoline like an alpha, it slipped and broke its teeth and leg. Now, after the baby pool has reddened by blood, Bitcoin is back on the trampoline for a second try. This time it may very well get a clean jump, yet with a broken leg chances are it'll be a clumsy dive. Why then is that? It's found good support no matter how we measure, whether we focus on the parallel channel or the expanding triangle. A megaphone through which it can shout out its pain. So why the pessimism? There are a few reasons for this. The main problem spells R-S-I. Late January we got ourselves a nice lower bullish red buy signal. This has now been stopped out as it closed >1% below the signal level. What this typically means ... as in with remarkable statistical reliability ... is that the price will move down within the upcoming <50 candles, as in 50 weeks in this case - or, let us just call it a year. This does by no account mean the price cannot or will not move higher before giving up and rolling over. Given that Bitcoin's found good support right at two separate technical key levels ... and given how immaculately weak the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index has been for most of the year (and not to mention the last couple of weeks!), the angry bears should have run out of enough steam for now to justify at least a minor pump, relief rally, bull trap ... call it whatever you want! Upon a pump there are a few prime zones at which Bitcoin may run into particular technical difficulties in overcoming them. First and foremost we have $34,000-$35,200. Next up is the $39,750-$40,250 zone - both of which coincide with the 382 and 618 fibs respectively, and both of which will have to push through the EMA50, -100 and -200 bands respectively. After that comes the real trouble-maker: $44,500-$48,000. Not only does this level hold good historical merit, a break of this pivotal top would break the bearish curse of lower lows and lower highs. It'd be the first time since the November peak since Bitcoin has taken out a new higher pivot high. That'd certainly be something to celebra and only then would we have good reason to become truly bullish again. But don't be fooled, for the way over there is much longer than first seems. It's more of a mirage than anything palpable. For these reasons, and unless new data is given along the way to alter the technical landscape, I will use any pump to release my holdings in anticipation of steep and sustained moves to the downside. /Long Life Trading
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by LongLifeTrading
2
Uber Turning the Corner?UBER looking good here. Down 46% off ATH in early 2021. Uber has seen a slow bleed over the last year, as opposed to the more dramatic, precipitous fall of many other stocks. Price appears to be finding support at a historically active Demand Zone. Support appears to be building on the Daily chart. I'm interested at these prices but I'm expecting some more sideways chop before UBER can break resistance. -Mercury ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NYSE:UBERLong
by mercury_rising
Boeing Ready to Fly Again?Boeing looks interesting--at least in the sense that's it's checking all my boxes for the kinds of trades I look for. Bullish Divergence, check. Buy Zone, check. Price on top of a Supply Zone, check. Normally this would be an easy one to start averaging in. However, as with most stocks there's more to consider than just TA and the overall market is still shaking out. I think this is a great chance for a short-term play, but I'm not ready to go in with full confidence yet. Happy Trading, ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NYSE:BALong
by mercury_rising
2
Axie to Infinity?Last month, AXS finally broke through the downtrend resistance. Now price appears to be consolidating above the resistance-turned-support line and dipping its toes into the supply zone. With the recent Bullish Divergence (4h) and with the indicators entering buy zones, AXS looks like a great opportunity for averaging into a long position. To infinity! ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
Long
by mercury_rising
Bullish on BABA"Be greedy when others are fearful" BABA is 70% off its highs from a year and a half ago and many investors are jaded. Looking at the technicals however, I'm seeing plenty of reasons to consider BABA a great opportunity to DCA into a long position here. The relentless overhead resistance and downward momentum appear to be dissipating as sellers run out of steam. Value buyers appear to be stepping in and the charts are showing increasing support. In addition, I'm seeing bullish divergence on the daily chart and a possible signal of a shift of momentum. All these signs lead me to think BABA is preparing to turn the corner. I'm not ready to call the bottom on BABA, but I'm interested in accumulating. Happy Trading ---------------------------------------------------------------- These are my personal views and not financial advice. Please do your own research before investing. I'd love to hear your thoughts, ideas and feedback. Feel free to Comment and I'll try and get back to you quickly. If you appreciated this analysis, consider Liking or Following . Thanks!
NYSE:BABALong
by mercury_rising
6
USDCAD - Bullish Pullback expected - Bullish IndicationsHi Traders! Here is our analysis of this pair: Market is in a Downtrend which started around 9th of March at a price of 1.29 On 28th of March price made a Low @ 1.24600 After the Low we have a conspicuous bullish candle with a big bullish wick --> What does that mean? --> First Bullish Attempt to move the price higher --> Loose in the first place, but... --> Sellers probably felt first feeling of unsureness --> Sellers looking to cash out their position --> Price moves higher Market moved lower and made an Exhaustion Candle --> What does that mean? --> Now the Buyers win --> Stop Hunting is also imaginable Price moved up and made a Fractal It moved down and it is the first Higher Low since the beginning of the Downtrend --> Buyers accept a higher price for this pair --> First sign of Trend Change --> Downtrend was LHs and LLs, now we have a LHs and HL --> weaker The price even broke the Level of the Fractal Resistance recently Target: On the higher TF, we have this picture: --> TP should not be too far away Aggressive Area: Between "Area of Control" and 50.0% Fib' Level Conservative Area: Between 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci Level After the Target, we expect a Down-Movement due to the situation on the higher TF. If you have any questions, another Point of View or anything else to share, don't hesitate to comment! Thanks and successful Trading :-)! ---------------------------------------------------------------- ***Trade at your own risk*** ***Not every idea is traded by us***
Long
by swissmoneymakers