Trade of the Week - EURUSD Sell-Off ExhaustionReasons of Placing the Trade:
Oversold RSI with divergence
Volume Increase
Multiple reversal attempts along the bearish move
Setup:
Stop Loss: 50 pips of length @1.09200
Take Profit 1: 100 pips of length @1.10800
Take Profit 2: 170 pips of length @1.1150
Reward: 3.5:1 and 2:1
Exhaustion
USDCAD 61.8 RETRACEMENT!!!After price broke out of a highly respected uptrend, price squeezed and broke out bearish (Impulsive Wave). Currently we see price rallied at a very attractive reversal level(Exhaustion), (Fibonacci 61.8% Retracement) Price is Accumulating at this Level so we are awaiting for confirmation to enter this high probable continuation of trend to the downside. Trading Idea is invalid if price decides to break into Higher Highs eventually breaking above the 78.6%.
GBPCAD BULLISH CONTINUATIONThe Pound is Aggressively pushing higher and higher breaking Key Levels of Structure showing us the Pound is not slowing down and if it does, it will be an exhaustion. I'm highly interested to find Trend Continuation Confirmations at our Swap Level which is our Support in our Bullish Parallel Channel also this level being a 50% Retracement.
EURAUD shortMy reasons for this trade are: on weekly we can see price is looking to close as an inverted hammer (still waiting on close). On daily we had a strong bearish close yesterday showing momentum to the downside, it also closed back into my daily channel. We have seen some exhaustion on 4H between the 20EMA and 50EMA. Price is looking to test the 4H 20EMA at my zone, which lines up with 78.6% fib retracement from the previous wick high. On 1H we can see the blue zone has had many rejections over the last few days, the 1H 50EMA is also approaching this zone where I will be looking to short to 1.6355.
DXY FLY OR FALL?Price Action (Technical Analysis): I don't like to over complicate analyzing any pair or currency so here we have the Dollar rallied up to an interesting area to begin reversing and possibly breaking below our ascending channel. Price can very well progress to faking out retail traders and push up higher into our resistance zone.
Fundamental Analysis: We mostly saw damage being done in Currency Pairs that didn't involve just the Dollar's value. Cutting Rates dumped the Greenbacks in Major Pairs such as USDJPY.
EURGBP - Exhaustion count on the daily chart.Trade Idea
The rally has posted an exhaustion count on the daily chart.
Price action has formed an expanding wedge formation.
Our medium term bias is bearish below 0.8919 towards 0.8826.
There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
Intraday signals are far from strong.
We look to Sell at 0.9000
Stop: 0.9025
Target 1: 0.8830
Target 2: 0.8800
CHFJPY Heavy resistanceHere we can see heavy resistance around the 110.400 region. I personally entered short positions on this after seeing the exhaustion presented to us on the H1 time frame around 7pm - 1am here in London. A much safer entrance would have been at the closure of 2am H4 candle as you may notice the shooting star formation emerging. With my riskier entry I did however manage to have a lot tighter SL of around 25 pips, take profit level 1 is set at 100 pips exactly to the next zone I spotted. Once this is hit I shall close half my lot and let the second half run to the 108.700 area. Now I am looking onto the daily closure to determine whether or not we successfully engulfed the previous day or so price action.
AUDUSD currently within a large rising channel & going longSince its last low at 0.70570, it has risen to 0.71680 and currently performing a correction before going higher.
At its current "drop" from 0.71680, it has reached an approximate price of 0.71000 and is moving within a "downward sloping flag" which means it will bounce back higher.
Downtrend + Downward sloping flag = Reversal
Look for an entry to ride the big rising channel.
GBP/JPY pullback, a Buyer's bait?OANDA:GBPJPY After a strong bullish retracement, the pair succeeded to cross the 0.618 fib level on the daily. However, just after that, we can notice a strong pullback, a sign of exhaustion that pushed GBP JPY down to the 0.5% fib level. Historically we also can notice a bearish zone just above the current higher high. We have had a selling wick just after the bearish candle from the previous lower high on December 13th. Together even if the pair managed to rebound from the 0.5 level, it suggests the current pullback be followed by a larger swing back to the 141 handles.
In order to lure buyers to capture more Sell volume, the last impulse could be up to 143.9x price range but the 143.6x area is more likely to be a reversal point.
S&P 500 Abandoned babyAfter the harsh drop of 2018 in the stock market we've now enjoyed a signicant uptrend. However looking at the body of the green candles we can see them getting shorter and now recently some red candles as well. This already signals a weakening in the uptrend but now we also see a "abandoned baby" -pattern. This is usually a rare pattern but has been previously quite reliable itself. This is a reversal pattern and lines up with the exhaust seen in the uptrend. Aggressive entry could be taken right now as a short but a more conservative entry would be on break below the 2630 support line.
Following the news in the market such as trade war and taking into consideration the risk of temporary boost from stock buybacks in Q1 should be taken into account if going short.
TRX buyers getting exhaustedI'll keep this one short.
Low volume rally after the rejection candle two weeks ago.
Bearish divergence on all momentum oscillators (daily timeframe) showing the uptrend is slowing down and nearing the exhaustion.
Might make one last push into the red zone (not necessary, but possible), and then I expect a deeper correction down to the targets below:
1. 566
2. 506
3. 460
4. 386
(Not all of the targets have to be reached, but those are the support levels where I see possible bounces)
If you've bought this during the hype these past weeks, it might be time to start thinking of taking some profits here.
Note, this is a daily timeframe chart, so don't expect it to play out within hours, but rather days.
UAA Exhaustion Gap?Pretty good liquidity on UAA weekly options, this one might be a good short term trade (as in 2 - 3 days). I'm already in this morning but you may want to see how the day ends.
UAA goes gap with the market, so if they pump futures on Monday this will gao up. Overvalued though, based on this blowout quarter it's got a P/E ratio of 33 and no dividends.
BTCUSD - Anticipating Exhaustion of correction at around 10400.As was suggested in my weekly chart that was posted on 5th February 2018, the prevailing down move halted around the 5950 area and price has since been correcting upwards. Anticipating the current correction to stall around the 10400 area before a further drop ensues. Trade cautiously!
Side Note:
Current volatility in the S&P500, DAX and similar Indices is a "dream come true" for experienced traders involved in the Futures markets!
Take care & Trade well.
GBPAUD 1h Price action Short."Personal Journal"
Reasons: Seller trend on 1h charts, waited for a pullback, the first pullback already got rejected on resistance.
We then get another pullback that showed a double top and a drop, followed by what seems to me like the final buyers try (got this try because of News an hour ago). Got in after a big "Pinbar" on my precision timeframe (15m).
Feeling a bit worried because that resistance have been challenged 3 times already, may be a signal of sellers getting weak so I consider this as an aggressive entry.
TEVA, inside day in front of exhaustion gap!TEVA was one of my favorite company to trade back to 2014-2015, and I was so bullish on the company then based on fundamental analysis~
After I stepped in the world of technical analysis and momentum trade, the story of TEVA has totally changed, too.
There was a significant "island" formed by the exhaustion gap, and here comes an inside day.
The short is the confirmation entry and the 8/21EMA correction combination; the long, on the other hand, is not a very great idea as it's fighting with the resistance.
It's a better short than long inside day case, (compared to the relative idea below-- a both sided trade)
Again, it doesn't imply I am predicting which direction it will break at all!
Link to TradingView live chart! Welcome to click it as a like button lol~
tradingview.go2cloud.org
The End of the Intraweek Bitcoin Bubble has Come!Bitcoin has risen about 70% in the past 4 days! It is obviously in a bubble whether you like it or not. It will definitely burst soon. However, it is difficult to predict the top, although they are many signs that 172000 the peak. First, the volume spiked 2-3 times in the last few hours: a common sign of exhaustion a reversal. Next, the RSI has not 2, or 3, but 4 bearish divergence peaks. Finally, the Elliot Wave count is at 5, though we could still go higher with an extended 5th wave.
As crazy as I sound, we could put a short order with a tight stop. Our target would be the 0.382 Fibonacci Level at 14500, and the stop loss would be just slightly about the peak at 17500, giving us a risk to reward ratio of 1:3.11. That means we only have to be right a fourth of the time to make profit.
HOWEVER, that does not mean the end of Bitcoin. I'm only saying that we are going to experience a temporary correction. We could get targets of $25,000 after the correction.