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Expandedflat

GBPUSD Wave Count: More Downside Before A Powerful RallyHey Traders, it's weekend review time! GBPUSD, originally viewed as a possible flat on an intermediate degree, has broken recent lows. What does this mean? We should expect some lower lows into next week. The double zig-zag has created a new motive wave and is expected to now become a triple zig-zag. This is a great short opportunity if we see a nice pullback. Otherwise, I'll wait for a long opportunity in the PRZ confluence zone. This zone, as shown on the chart, is comprised of two very closely placed pattern completions: bullish shark & bullish crab. If we can get a nice bullish motive wave followed by a correction, in that zone, I'm going long and will post an idea. For now, I would like to short the pair on a pullback and put the stop tightly behind the invalidation level on a lower degree (more on that as the tide rolls). Happy Saturday all!
Short
by glennmercer
USDJPY Dip in an Uptrend - Watch 103.50-104.63USDJPY appears to be putting in the finishing touches to a corrective move lower. We can see an elliott wave impulsive move higher followed by what appears to be an a-b-c expanded flat correction. We can use wave measurements to gauge higher probability areas where blue wave 'c' may terminate. 3 areas I'm watching: 104.63 = wave 'a' low 103.90 = 38.2% retracement of the impulsive move 103.60 = equal overthrow below the wave 'a' low that we saw in wave 'b' above 'v' If price does move down into these zones, be watchful for bullish reversals that may drive up towards 111 or higher. If you are looking for intraday shifts in momentum, consider checking out the Grid Sight indicator . Good luck! Forex trading carries a high level of risk and losses can exceed deposited funds. Past performance is no indication of future results.
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
1
Bottom should be seen between 156.02 - 156.21GBP/JPY - Bottom to be found between 156.02 - 156.21 The decline from the 163.89 high has been relentless, but it's only part of an expanded flat correction and once the low is found a new strong rally higher should be seen. The low should be found in the 156.02 - 156.21 area. At 156.21 we have the magic 70.7% corrective target of wave (I know that the 70.7% corrective target isn't a Fibonacci number, but it's seen more often holding back corrections to be a mere coincident). the 156.02 target is the limit for wave five of the small ending diagonal that has developed over the last couple of days. As the name "ending diagonal" says it marks the termination of the move and once finished a sharp reversal is expected. The first indication of a bottom being in place is a break above minor resistance at 157.24, while a break above 158.01 confirms the low for a strong rally higher in wave . This rally will eventually take us back above the 163.89 top and longer term much more upside is expected.
Long
by EWS
6
Sterling Pivots at the False Breakout Extreme - Bulls AlertedWe've written about the GBP/USD a couple of times over the past month or so anticipating a wave 'B' bottom. This week, Sterling pivoted at the point where wave 'B' could be a false break down. This pattern we're favoring is the expanded flat pattern that began on March 18 2015. Wave A is a double (flat-x-zigzag) that terminated on June 17, 2015. Wave B as labeled is a triple (flat-x-zigzag-flat) that appears to have terminated on Jan 21. That suggests wave C would subdivide as 5 waves higher towards 1.54 and possibly 1.60. This is the favored count, but not the only count. There are other possibilities so don't mistaken this to believe prices ONLY have to go higher, because they don't. If prices fall below this week's low, we'll reconsider the counts/patterns. A meaningful move above 1.45 would punch through significant resistance that could be symptomatic of the bullish undertones. We touched on these bullish undertones for Sterling in yesterday's GBP/JPY post. So this appears to be somewhat broad based at least in the shorter term. Longer term, we are looking for Sterling to be much weaker. In the chart above, note how SSI was shrinking as the pair was falling out of bed in January. This shift in sentiment during a strong trend is another symptom of prices searching for a bottom. I would encourage you to check out the live SSI feed so you can keep an eye on shifting sentiment. Lastly, the equity market sell off has market expectations for future rate hikes on the skids. This was a big risk coming into 2016 that DailyFX highlighted in their Q1 2016 US Dollar forecast. Check it out here Happy Trading!
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
7
Multiple Patterns Suggest Near Term Sell Off Towards 1.0750Multiple Elliott Wave patterns are lining up that suggest EURUSD may fall towards 1.0750. 1) In the context of a medium term bull trend, an a-b-c expanded flat from Dec 3 points to 'c' of 2 to 1.0750, then a larger bull run kicking off 2) A wave 4 triangle suggests this move from Dec 3 to Dec 9 was 'a' of a triangle. 'b' of a triangle likely presses towards 1.05-1.06. Much above 1.1048 and these shorter term patterns are hampered and see the December 4 post for a medium term analysis. Keep a close eye on the Speculative Sentiment Index. It is a contrarian indicator and if begins to run lower than -2.0, then that might suggests this short term view isn't going to happen. It is currently printing at -1.6. You can follow real time S S I here .
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
28
Gold Sentiment Shifts In the 3rd Wave - 1130 Support2 months ago we identified Gold as a market that “the wave picture on Gold is simple, though the timing of the trade may prove difficult.” From a bigger picture perspective, Gold was close to finding a meaningful bottom. We went on to say “There is a false breakout zone from 1060-1131 which means so long as prices hold above 1060, this wave counts suggests the possibility for 1300-1450. So the deeper Gold drives, the better the risk reward ratio trade there is.” Gold Bugs – You May Get Your Wish June 21, 2015 We have seen some interesting developments in the metal this week. In Monday’s US Opening Bell webinar, we discussed using a breakout above the Aug 12 high as a long entry trigger. The breakout took hold on Wednesday. (Catch the recording of the webinar inside DailyFX Plus – you can register for a free trial here if you don’t have an FXCM live account www.dailyfx.com ) Secondly, and more importantly, the sentiment is shifting strongly. On Aug 19, SSI shifted from net buyers to net sellers. For those familiar with sentiment readings, we use SSI as contrarian signals. With SSI shifting while it appears we are in the midst of a wave 3 higher, this means if you are not long, consider finding areas to position long. Based on the current wave picture, price may soften towards 1130. Below 1120 would cause us to reconsider the wave count as depicted. Good luck – feel free to comment.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by JWagnerFXTrader
10
Volume Signaling Weakness - Watch 1.27-1.2850The Loonie has been slopping around sideways for the past couple of weeks. Back on July 22, we wrote about the possibility of a multi-hundred pip sell off. After a brief dip, prices drifted higher from July 29-Aug 4. The Aug 4 peak occurred at a level where a wave relationship suggests the possibility of a deeper sell off (see wave relationships below). The inability of USDCAD to move higher while Oil slips lower has renewed my interest in this pair. The higher probability opportunity shows the potential for a dip to 1.27-1.2850. Since we are 200+ pips above those levels, we have a short opportunity. Be mindful that we are likely in a wave iv which means there would be a wave v higher. Also, the picture is slightly mixed with Elliott wave, wave relationships, and OBV showing bearish signs. SSI is the outlier in the analysis as it suggests a bullish move is coming. That mix may also support the wave iv position. Here is a summary of the main variables/indicators we watch: Elliott Wave Count – we appear to be in circle wave iv which appears to be carving an expanded flat downward correction – this means a sell off, if it transpires, should prove temporary in nature Wave Relationships – The Aug 4 high occurred at the 1.382 expansion of the July 24-July 29 drop. This is a common relationship in a ‘B’ wave of an expanded flat or running triangle. If we are in an expanded flat (or complex W-X-Y) targets exist in the 1.2700-1.2850 zone. SSI – current reading is -2.3 and last week it was at -2.1 so little has changed. Long positions are 31% below levels from last week and short positions are 69% levels from last week. SSI suggests a bullish move is coming as the shorts build. OBV – Volume on an intraday time frame (2hr and 4hr) are showing the down volume is occurring with greater frequency and depth than up volume. For example, the OBV on the 4hr chart is already below the Aug 12 level (yet price is still higher than Aug 12). Also, OBV is at the same level from July 29. This is indicating weakness because price is still 200 pips higher today than July 29 while volume is at July 29 levels. I welcome your thoughts and comments. Best of luck!
Short
by JWagnerFXTrader
4
5 Waves in a Lead Wave Suggests Another Bump HigherSterling is carving out a sequence of overlapping 3 wave moves which is giving the appearance of a triangle. If that is the case, we are working on the 'D' leg of the triangle. The key element that is tipping me off to a trading opportunity is the 5 wave move higher from July 8-July 15. This is a leading wave and takes the shape of 5 waves. Therefore, there is likely going to be at least one more 5 wave move higher. The trick is to find that area of support to buy into the next 5 wave move higher and it looks like an ending diagonal is forming (see purple waves). In order for purple wave '3' to NOT be the shortest, purple wave '5' will need to terminate above 1.5500. Therefore, the deeper the GBPUSD can move towards 1.5500, the better risk to reward ratio opportunity to buy. Wave relationships show up in the 1.57-1.5850 range for taking profit. One pip below 1.5500 and the ending diagonal is invalid. Good luck!
by JWagnerFXTrader
11
Gold and the False Break - 1065 Key LevelWith price meeting Nov 2014 low, technical traders are looking to the current level as a hot spot, where a reaction higher or break lower is likely to occur. The retail sentiment at FXCM is showing 4 times as many traders who are long versus who are currently short. These short traders become a pool of future sellers when they decide to close out their trade. From a technical perspective, there are 2 wave relationships showing up in the 1130-1135 zone...so these traders MIGHT be right. If a break does occur, there is another wave relationship at 1093 and around 1065. The Elliott Wave labels on the chart suggest we are in an expanded flat correction and prices are likely to visit above 1300 in the coming months. The question is, how low does this expanded flat push? The false breakout zone extends to 1065. The deeper we cut towards 1065, the better the risk to reward ratio. A large reason why I'm favoring the expanded flat is the slope of the sell off since January. This recent sell off has a much softer slope than the prior 2 waves. Therefore, it is behaving more like a 'B' wave than a 3rd wave. Best of luck!
FX:XAUUSD
by JWagnerFXTrader
20
EUR Leading Diagonal Pattern Opens the Door for LongsLast night, we posted about the potential for a leading diagonal on the EURUSD (see the notes at the bottom of “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote”). The pair has continued to play that tune which implies: • A tradable low is in place at 1.0915 which coincides with scenario #2 in the “EUR Analysis Prior to Greece Referendum Vote” (see green notes on the original chart) • The 1.0915 ended 4 degrees of trend and likely kicks off a green circle ‘c’ wave higher which subdivides into 5 waves • Look for a 50-78% retracement on the diagonal to time a long entry (1.0960-1.1020) • Target 1.1250 and 1.1470 • If prices break above 1.1125 BEFORE hitting the retracement zone of 1.0960-1.1020, then consider a breakout long trade A print at 1.0914 means this analysis is incorrect so we have the opportunity for a good risk to reward ratio long trade. Also, SSI continues to be weighed towards sellers at -1.69. Sentiment can be used as a contrarian signal which suggests prices may rise. These traders who are short become future supply of buyers as they are already committed to their position. Additionally, with the analysis posted yesterday on the USDCAD (bullish), this may open the door to consider long EURCAD. EURJPY may have some bullish juice in it too. I’ll post those if any clean EW counts or RR ratio trades can be identified. Though this post is written to the tune of the higher probability leading diagonal scenario. Other scenarios do exist. I have listed the top 4 as I see them. For those Elliotticians, what other scenarios are you considering on EURUSD?
Long
by JWagnerFXTrader
23
EURUSD Elliott Wave Analysis. Flat Correction CompletedEURUSD has potentially completed the wave 5 of the Flat correction on the higher degree time frame which is Wave IV correction. What this means is that the down trend resumes for the EURUSD and would break the previous lows. USDOLLAR Index is also showing the same chart patterns of Expanded Flat correction giving confirmations. One can go short on this pair with stop loss and targets as shown on the chart. A great risk reward potential on this trade. Please do your own analysis before taking any positions. Happy Trading!!
Short
by SirajHudda
2
SUI30 The Swiss stock market ending a nice impulse waveI am a firm believer stock markets are patterned in shape ( Elliot wave ) and cyclical ( Martin Armstrong works ). Because labeling waves is subject to human nature, using the Elliot wave principle to trade is tricky at best. Nevertheless, sometime when you see a pattern you just have to accept what is in front of your eyes and right now the SUI30 appears to be ending an impulse wave that started at the March 09 low. I am showing you being wave C of a large expanded flat but it is one count out of many possible scenarios and I don't really care about the larger picture. The bottom line is SUI30 is on its way higher to end a pattern that has the potential to reach 10250-10400 where we have two targets: Wave C would equal wave A and wave (B) of my potential flat would equal 1.382 times wave (A). Once there, I would expect the market to roll over and start a decline that has the potential to be dramatic.
SLong
by yauger