Grand Finale: Wave IV Scenario (Update)This has been a grueling past 6 months trying to complete this corrective Wave IV before beginning the final motive Wave V of a 13 year bull market. Bulls and Bears playing mid-term options have been punished continuously for staying too long. I think it is important to keep the bigger picture in mind here - i.e. SPY will very likely make one last All Time High before entering a bear market. If you read the headlines of mainstream media you'll probably contest that we are already in a bear market because there was a 20% decline off the Jan. highs; however, the mathematical basis for such a definition is unsophisticated. But I am not here to argue the nuances of bear market definitions, rather, to provide a scenario that could unfold over the next couple months to provide a dramatic exit from this corrective Wave IV and on to new ATH by end of 2022 or early 2023.
What I am seeing is a WXY double combo, currently trying to complete Y via an expanding triangle. I understand expanding triangles are very rare; however, SPY has been trading with characteristics of such, and expanding triangles are observed in environments of extreme uncertainty - so for me the math and the logic align with this possibility.
What does this mean near term? Swing City. Huge 40-60 point swings that I have provided an estimated road map for in the chart above. I will be taking this one leg at a time, as there are layered conditional probabilities dominating the dynamics of the successive expected legs of this scenario (and the sub-waves there within) - so updates along the way will be warranted.
Initial Expectations :
- dead cat bounce early this coming week to the 406-408 level to test the bottom of the channel that formed last week around leg (c) on the chart. Point initial target 406.91 . This would form sub-wave b of leg (d) and mark a 0.618 retracement from the low Friday, 6/10, which was potentially sub-wave a of (d). Statistically, the move down at the end of last week put SPY in a very over-extended position to the downside and left a gap from 395.78 - 401.44 wide open. At minimum I would expect gap fill, but a perfect trap would be continuation to test the bottom of blue channel - and the latter would make more sense based on the ratios of the sub-waves of realized legs (a-c).
- high probability of rejection around 406-408. Rejection around the gap would have the same consequences: i.e., sharp downside to the 362-372 range (lower boundary of expanding triangle. I could see the initial dead-cat bounce to 406-408 unfolding into the FOMC next week around 6/15 (also a Supermoon that day so high volatility to be expected), and then harsh sell off to complete leg (d) by end of June. My point target for leg (d) is 364.49 .
Projecting beyond the point of leg (d) is speculative based on the general structure of expanding triangles, but if leg (d) plays out then I think the probability the remaining triangle completes increases significantly.. so I'll just give approximate forecasts for now.
- following leg (d), given (d) is realized within the vicinity of expectation, I would expect either a 3-count sub-wave up to around SPY 424, or an impulse (dashed projection) up to around 429-430 to form leg (e) = B of (Y) of IV. Such a move would be an explosive reaction to the sharp downside from expected (d) that would indubitably make us oversold af. Side note*: observe the candle back on May 13, it essentially carved out the levels pre-determined for the gap that was formed last Friday, 6/10.. pay close attention to price action around those levels in the days/weeks to come.
- in the event leg (e) is realized in either of the cases above, there would likely be one final leg down to form C of (Y) of IV (and ultimately complete corrective wave IV. Time to completion is speculative at best from here still, but probably around August 2022. By this time everyone will be confused af after getting whipsawed both ways with the huge swings of the expanding triangle, but if you believe me that this is possible and actually the most probable scenario that I see from here, you'll be like "oh... I C (Y)...IV."
If you think they'll be mass confusion at the completion of IV, just imagine the reaction when immediately following this completion SPY begins wave V and takes off to new All Time Highs in the 500s. Don't guard the man, guard the ball... ball never lies.
Regards,
Coach Phil Jackson
P.S. watch out for those Bulls in transition #23
