ETHBTC is about to make a historical moveAnything that follows is not to be taken as financial advice.
This is the Binance weekly chart for ETHBTC, with a single indicator loaded on: the Bollinger Bands Width Percentile.
The BBWP is a volatility indicator that measures whether or not we should be looking for the price action of the examined asset to contract or expand in relation to its own past volatility, calculated by the BBW.
Simply put, it tells us if we should be expecting the asset to be in a mostly sideways price action, or if it's appropriate to look for expansion.
Make no mistake, volatility is a direction-neutral indicator, meaning it's inherently neither bullish nor bearish.
We can see some flashing red and blue bars in the background, they're there to warn us about an extremely high (red) volatility environment, or an extremely low (blue) one.
Generally, when the asset is in an extremely high volatility environment, it's wise to expect it to cool off, therefore looking for price action to generally reduce its turbulent behavior.
This implies the exact opposite for when the volatility is extremely low.
With default settings, which I'm running, extremely high volatility is considered to be between 98% and 100%, while extremely low volatility is found between 0% and 2%.
Let's focus on the blue bars for this analysis.
Only once in the history of this chart, two weeks straight of extremely low volatility can be observed.
From there, the expansion led to an initial move up, and then ultimately a move down of -26.95% from the open of next week to the lowest point of the move.
Right now, ETHBTC is waiting for a massive expansion after twelve weeks straight of extremely low volatility.
If it was to expand to the downside from this point, a move of roughly the same impact would see this asset retest the june 2022 low.
However, spending more time contracting, usually means having a more explosive move when the time comes.
In the case of a downside move, I don't think it would be too crazy to look for a retest of Q1 2021 highs, anywhere around the 0.045 level.
That would make for about a -33% move from here, but I'd say there's fair concern for said move ending up being more destructive than that.
This could happen along with BTCUSD breaking into a new bull market while ETHUSD fails to catch up just like it did in the past, although that's just speculation on my part.
Remember, volatility is direction-neutral, while price action might look bearish right now, there is no way to tell where a future sustained volatility expansion might lead this asset to.
Personally speaking, I believe that if it were to expand to the upside, a retest of the ATH would definetely be within reach, seeing as ETHBTC has been consolidating for about 22 months.
It would certainly result in a massive move, more than a 2x from here, since the ATH is around 0.15 and the asset is now trading at around 0.067, but we've seen crazier things in crypto.
Whenever the expansion happens, and wherever it brings ETHBTC to, good luck and stay safe.
