(Chart-Art) The Ballad of Bearmoon: Bitcoin's Tale in Verse 🌑🐻(Chart-Art)
In the land of Bitcoin, a tale unfolds,
Where charts are painted, in red and cold. 🎨❄️
With bearish patterns, they do declare,
The top is in, beware, beware! 🚩🐻
A blood moon rises, casting its spell,
As bears and bulls in their struggle dwell. 🌑🐂📈🐻
Goblin Town looms, a place of dread,
Where downtrends lead, and hope has fled. 💀💔
The bears, they roar with teeth so sharp,
Driving prices down, to the dark. 🐻📉🌌
But the bulls, they stand, with hearts aflame,
Seeking to reclaim, their rightful claim. 🐂🔥📈
Yet amidst the chaos, one must be wise,
For markets are fickle, with treacherous skies. 🤔💼
Though the bearmoon reigns, and charts turn red,
With caution and cunning, one can tread. 🌑🚶♂️💡
So heed this tale of Bitcoin's plight,
In the realm of crypto, where day turns night. 🌃🌑
For in the dance of bears and bulls,
Lies the art of trading, where wisdom pulls. 📉🎨🤲🐂🐻
Expiration
MSFT Put And Call Options Investors in Microsoft Corporation (Symbol: MSFT) saw new options begin trading this week, for the October 21st expiration. One of the key data points that goes into the price an option buyer is willing to pay, is the time value, so with 245 days until expiration the newly trading contracts represent a possible opportunity for sellers of puts or calls to achieve a higher premium than would be available for the contracts with a closer expiration. At Stock Options Channel, our YieldBoost formula has looked up and down the MSFT options chain for the new October 21st contracts and identified one put and one call contract of particular interest.
The put contract at the $280.00 strike price has a current bid of $22.40. If an investor was to sell-to-open that put contract, they are committing to purchase the stock at $280.00, but will also collect the premium, putting the cost basis of the shares at $257.60 (before broker commissions). To an investor already interested in purchasing shares of MSFT, that could represent an attractive alternative to paying $289.44/share today.
A brief explanation on the importance of risk managementEvery human activity has its ups and downs. You may face good days and bad days and it’s a norm in any other human kind activities.
Read history! Did all dynasties get consistently stronger?
In politics, did popularity rates of political figures get better day by day?
Sure not!
Even in natural events, you see uneven decreases and increases. Not only the annual rainfall rates are not always the same, but the rate of increases and decreases varies from year to year.
So strategies and setups won’t always work because they simply are man-made things to predict a human-based activity! They may fail, expire or disused someday, because this is the neutrality of nature and creatures including humans and their markets. For the last instance, even stars grow and fall.
I know there are some traders who claim their strategy will never expire. They may be liars, but they are not necessarily liars! Those who believe their strategy will never expire will admit that their strategy had bad days too. I like to say their strategy has expired and reactivated again and since they consider longer cycles (monthly, yearly or even bigger) they believe their setup has never expired. If we want to be more precise their strategy has expired but just for shorter periods (may be just for hours!).
Let me explain a little more technical, every setup is compatible with specific conditions of the market and they will fail in other markets’ conditions and traders are not foreteller but predictors, so they sometimes may get conditions have changed and sometimes they predict it wrong or get the change so late! So they sometimes make profit and sometimes don’t. For example RSI overbought and oversold strategy do not make profit in trending market on the side of the trend! I mean if markets are bullish, overbought is a norm not a sign of reversal (most peak of reversals happens in overbought or oversold but not every oversold is a sign of reversal in a trending market) and in a super bullish trending market you almost can’t find any RSI oversold. So you should use another setup! ( some traders using kind of strategy which has different setups for different conditions of market, they actually guess when their strategy is going to expire)
I divide the professional traders by methods that they choose to avoid using an unsuitable for market conditions into four general categories.
1- Ignorers: Since they got a conservative risk management strategy and they could easily ignore expiration phenomena and trade without worrying about expiration.
2- Rule makers: They have different setups for different conditions. They specify some rules to distinguish market conditions and adapt new setups to their trades. Rules could be created by using both indicators or indicator-free (price action) chars.
3- Sentimental Market traders (in case of expiration): Some traders do not use specific rules! They simply just sense market conditions has changed. They differ from rule makers because they don’t use a specific rules every time. They may use some rules unconsciously but those rules may differ time to time.
4- Equity curve analyzers. They simply analyze equity curve! They make specific rules to start using or stop using a strategy! For example they will stop using it if it is a loss-maker one for 2 weeks (this one won’t work in most strategies) or they simply try to use price action rules to analyze EC of a setup! “Mark Douglas (1990) is saying that if traders were to chart their equity, these charts would look very much like the typical bar charts and charts like these also can have the same predictive value as in the markets” “Procedia Economics and Finance 32 ( 2015 ) 50 – 55” these kind of traders may use indicators like SMA or WMA to predict profitability of a setup in future and they are also eager to use price action rules.
I believe no method is superior to another, the way an experienced trader use the method is important! But having a method to avoid large losses is necessary. And all traders consciously or unconsciously use one of them. Most price action traders are ignorers. Their strategy may expire but for short period of time. For example mine is expired right now but I’ll continue using it cause I know it’s temporarily and I don’t know when exactly it will reactive again. I also use a self-made auto-trading expert which use different indicator based setup and since the period of expirations of that setups are long, I use EC analyzing methods to detect expirations .
No matter which method you use, you can’t be an always winner trader! Ignorers may loss and they will name it exceptions. Rule makers’ rules may detect and signal expiration too soon or too late! The 3rd and 4th kind of traders may make mistakes too. There is no single trader in the world with 100% win rate in long-term!
That's why you need to limit our risks, I like optimism in life (I prefer pessimism in back-tests) but you should not be deluded, you should think what happen if you lost some consecutive trades?
If you risk more than you can handle consecutive losses emotionally, You will empty your trading account, no matter how good a teacher you had or how much you have practiced or how great trading past you have or how experienced you are or even how much you believe your emotions are in control of you
(you actually can’t control in real big loses trading), YOU NEED TO LIMIT YOUR RISK by managing it in a way that your trading is profitable enough and simultaneously do not be destructive at certain times
"Profit a little less but more consistent."
There are also too many other important rules for money and risk management and you should take them into consideration too.
Best Regards, Alisignals
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/10/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:NQZ2021
- PR High: 16189.50
- PR Low: 16152.50
Evening Stats (As of 11:07 PM)
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 295.82
- Volume: 22k
- Open Int: 217k
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -3.5% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 16963
- Mid: 16391
- Short: 15819
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
#BTCUPDATE - 31.OCT.21 - VOLATILITY INCOMING#BTCUPDATE - 31.OCT.21
VOLATILITY INCOMING
The usual end of month option expiration volatility is expected tomorrow. Impossible to confirm whether bullish or bearish although given the current pattern then it is looking more like retesting $62k and then $61k before a larger move up to possible $64k region after breaking out of this short term symmetrical triangle.
Should we break down and lose $60k this time then we may end up seeing $58k - and we will likely see a us ranging in a descending triangle from there.
Realistically we need to see what tomorrows expiration brings but I am still leaning towards a bullish sentiment.
✅LUMBER SWING TRADE OPPORTUNITY|LONG🚀
🏛LUMBER making a massive correction
From the spectacular bubble like covid rally
And the price will soon be retesting an important weekly support
From where I am expecting a pullback upwards
With the chance of retesting the level above
SUGGESTED TRADE:
☑️Buy CALL options 600$ strike
☑️Expiration end of the year:
☑️Either November 2021 or January 2022
☑️I would go for January
☑️You can see the options chain for lumber futures at the CME website
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
#BTCUPDATE - 30.7.21 LITERALLY NO SURPRISE
As I have been warning for the past few days BTC has been throwing up bearish flags everywhere.
We are straight down to first support - which is quite a strong one of the 200 DEMA although I think a small bounce here and the US online will sell and push down quite steeply. It should be an interesting weekend.
If we lose this support at $38.5k then next stop imo is $36.3k.
Benefits here are that we needed a correction after a heavy pump - and it is setting up nicely for an ultra bullish August. When ETH London Hardfork & German Institutions come online.
My play is to target $36.8k from here and then see if it holds - if not then look to $34k. In the same breath start accumulating/DCA'ing BTC on the way down now as the come back pump is gonna be REAL!!!!
A MONSTER trade - Don't Hold Til Expiration!In this video I present a cautionary tale from trading history to show why it is a very bad idea from a risk management standpoint to hold options until expiration. This example comes from NASDAQ:MNST in 2014 when NYSE:KO made a surprise announcement that led to a huge move in the stock.
Options expiration Friday 28.May (buy <25k, sell >36k )Fridays(option expiration): Its not every month it goes down.
Seems to correlate with the trend.
When negative trend > it has cone only 10-20% down.
So max down is -20% around expiration day (since 2-3 years).
Exceptions below.
Looks like the 25kEUR level can be touched
(in May, latest 11.June)
-> worse case 18kEUR
(that is -40% from this moment)
-> reversion next level 36-37kEUR
... 15kEUR will not go there,
Exceptions (continue downtrend vs. reversion)
- Mar2020
- Sep2019
- Dec2018
- May/Jul2018
- Dec2017
(crash, Jan18 dropped -40% in 30days)
What you think?
CME Future expiration and settlement dates in details ->BTC FAThis chart is to try to analize FA -> the relation of the price with CME future expiration dates, fresh buys, first and last date of trading & settlements + some important news FA and dates.
It does not include Rate cuts of the USD and not US elections next year and no ponzies "dump" affect (the onecoin and that last crazy china ponzi schemes). If its priced in or not i dont know, but by looking at this FA dates it makes me feel we gona see some actions for sure!
here are the links to double check,... p.s. today is the settlement date for novemeber contract
coinpaprika.com
www.bitcoinblockhalf.com
BTC & USD important dates (halving, expirations, election)!hello,
Just posting this few links in order to come back and check the dates before going full in. Be aware of them!
www.barchart.com
en.wikipedia.org
www.bitcoinblockhalf.com
Because what we trade are futures, we are not trading past, and so we can not be sure of anything, we can be only sure we will be all death. 100% certain. Anyway according to past:
Future expirations:
- we usually (that means more then 50%) start to dip or pump close to future expiration-s and on future expiration dates, I never really checked for BTC,
but when i was trading futures (oil, gold etc), that was the first thing i checked before entering positions. I included also USD dolar index future expirations, bcs BTC is tradable against Moon / Neptun and not against fiat like dollar, u get the point right : Expiration pattern
- Fresh buys happen usually after expiration-s, it takes few days, it does not happen right after expiration date, same for fresh sell, Fresh buy pattern, fresh sell pattern
BTC halving:
guess you heard of mining reward cut on half, well if you havent thats kinda prety important date for speculators, if BTC will follow past, its bullish news, maybe this time it will follow LTC example, (pumped to 120K and then dumped to 65K), we could say Halving pattern ...just saying, because after the halving next important FA news for next year is:
US presidental elections:
Please note in past (which can not be guarranty of future movement) Currency usually started to strenghten prior to election date, in order to atrract the Voters. p.s. Doesnt matter if US, JAPAN, France, German, UK,..we could say Election pattern
Soory for long talk, i am not used to talk so much, i use to just say:
entry: 9700 & 9600
TP:?
Liq: 8500
margin: 1:5
:)
YETI Short Idea YETI lock up expiration was 4/23. Stock has doubled since IPO and insider have a nice chance to cash out. More competition in the market. Intrinsic value near $16 being generous. If shares don’t snap the trend line before earning, possibly earnings will be better than expected? Will be hard to justify earnings with a PE of 50 for this type of product.
Afterhours volatility at 1AM when few are watching October 25Afterhours volatility at 1AM when few are watching October 25
"The last day of trading for expiring VIX options is the end of regular trading on the day before (typically Tuesday). Expiring VIX futures on the other hand trade in extended hours trading until 7:00 AM ET on the day of expiration (typically Wednesday).Jul 29, 2018"
source: sixfigureinvesting.com
The Effect of Futures Expiration and ETF Decisions on BTCAll traders and investors should be aware of two sets of key dates in BTC:
1) The date that Bitcoin Futures contracts expire (shown on the chart in black in the past, and orange in the future)
Futures contracts let traders bet on whether the price will rise or fall, without actually having to hold bitcoins. Whilst in principal the start of these should push the value of BTC up, the dates that these contracts expire has never coincided with a bullish few days in Bitcoin (although the effect, if indeed there is correlation, thankfully seems to be short term). In fact the very first futures expiration was December 17th 2017... coinciding with Bitcoin dropping like a rock from it's all time high of the previous day! This may have been coincidental, or the futures expiration just might have been the trigger for the beginning of the correction, which is always inevitable and necessary after a huge pump.
Regardless, the next Bitcoin Futures contract (by CME) expires tomorrow 27th July and hence is unlikely to coincide with a bullish period. The epic bull run to a new all time high is more likely to come with my next point...
2) The date that a decision is given on a Bitcoin ETF (shown on the chart in green)
If you haven't heard of the various Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) applications which have been filed you really should do some research - they will open the floodgates to literally billions of dollars from retail traders and individual accredited investors in the US public market and is widely anticipated to mark the start of the next moon shot in BTC. The US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) are due to give their next ETF decision on August 16th, although this is widely expected to be delayed to September. However market sentiment remains positive on the impending decision and likely the reasoning behind the recent pump in BTCUSD as this anticipated approval is being priced in. I say "anticipated", but well-connected individuals may already have been advised of which way the decision is going to go. On the other hand, this could be a bull trap, it's very hard to say.
"With the release of an ETF, this allows investors to add BTC to their retirement portfolio. Global Pensions Market: $41.3 trillion. If BTC captures just 1% of global pensions, that would create $413,000,000,000 of exposure for cryptocurrencies."
These Bitcoin Futures expiration and ETF decision dates may or may not be included in your trading and investment strategies, but they are at the very least worth being aware of.
Please give me a thumbs up and follow me if you found my analysis interesting. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Citigroup (C) A Great Candidate For A Downside SpreadAlthough the banking sector has largely had a rally since the Presidential election, regulatory headwinds and near-term fundamental outlook and projections have seemed bleak for Citigroup’s growth potential. Long-term, the stock is a great purchase at a somewhat discounted price to its recent trading, but for our swing strategy, the latest break to the downside into a possible downtrend or consolidation is an opportunity for us.
If you’re looking for a 1:1 risk/reward trade with a skewed probability curve starting at roughly 62% chance of success to earn 100% ROI, then Citigroup is a gem in this turbulent market. Actually, we found this trade while scanning due to possibly having to close for a loss on our recent Alphabet (GOOG) trade due to management’s screw-up on an epic scale regarding extremist videos and advertisements on Youtube .
Anyways, here’s the trade we see:
Current stock price $58.46
Buy X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58.50 Strike
Sell X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58 Strike
Max Return on Risk/ROI: ~100%
Fun times.
Potential Lockup Expiration PlayLockup expiration coming on 8/9. = possible overhead pressure. Net income -24 mil...worth trailing for a possible short if available. Currently a H&S formation. Do your own due diligence. This is just a heads up. Has a way to go to get to IPO price. It's good to trail these well ahead of the lockup expiration. Often the pop and drop is well ahead of the actual expiration. You can see where the selling began. Most of the execs in their 40's. I like to find runner ipo's w/ negative earnings and young insiders..I referred to this on in the EDIT idea posted 9 days ago. I'm trailing EDIT as well.
lockup expiration playIt might be worth trailing for a short at some point into lockup expiration next month ..EPS -85 mil..I'm interested in how this range resolves here.. IPO was at $!6 now around $24.50 so theres room..11% float short...could be a little better but I've seen worse....would prefer 5% but whatever-would of been sweet at $43..position don't predict..imagine different scenarios..take the one that confirms..price is right and observe-react-change-grow-evolve=survive..do your own due diligence..Lockup expiration plays are scarce in summer..no Co. really wants to expire in the summer...but with this bull market..ipo's should come back in and provide op's down the road Also take a look at PTI...similar in a lot of ways..I'll be trailing it as well
Spy Weeklys In the Money,At the Money or Out of the Money?Spy Weeklys In the Money,At the Money or Out of the Money? What strike price is the best to trade for max bang for the buck? First you have to get the direction right and assuming you did that next you have to decide which strike price is the best to play for max profit in a short time period. Attached is a chart that shows the SPY trades we followed over 2 weeks that we were mostly out of the money with one trade at the start the SPY 191.50 CALL bought at $2.00 then sold at $3.85 for a 90% profit. We noticed that the out of the money option were up around 200% in one day. So the at the money was profitable but the out of the money options were noticeably more profitable. During the following 2 weeks we followed mostly out of the money options with remarkable profits. On Thursday March 3 2016 we followed 2 options bought on Thursday when we got a bottom signal. They were out of the money options, one option was SPY Mar 11 201 CALL bought at $.90 that had a high for the day of $1.74 on Friday for a 90% profit.
We usually follow options with at least 2 full trading days to expiration to allow time for the option time to play out. But on Thursday we decided to also followed an out of the money option with less than 2 days to expiration which we called The Gambler it was a SPY Mar 04 200 CALL bought at $.40. We decided on the 200 strike because we wanted something that was out of the money but had a chance of getting in the money. It got to $1.36 for a high and a 240% profit. The bottom line is the out of the money options apparently have the greatest profit potential but you have to be aware of the risk involve especially as you approach expiration and the accelerated time decay on Thursday and Friday the week of expiration
RISK DISCLAIMER
Options involve risks and are not suitable for everyone. Option trading can be speculative in nature and carry substantial risk of loss. Only invest with risk capital.
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