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Navigating Volatility: Positional Strategies for MarchWork religiously irrespective of temporary failures, have risk management systems in place As a seasoned derivatives trader with over a decade of experience, I find myself continuously drawn to the dynamic nature of the market. Inspired by familial ties and fueled by a passion for challenge, my journey into this realm began with humble internships and has evolved into a successful career within reputable broking firms. Today, I stand firm in my enthusiasm for derivatives, where each trading session offers renewed excitement and abundant opportunities for growth. Futures and options are highly volatile so one should not assume that they know everything from day one. My journey has seen a fair amount of ups and downs, but it has all been a great learning experience at the end of the day. The most important thing is that I have been willing to learn something new every day. I also make sure to have risk management systems in place before taking a position. This makes losses bearable and the victories more joyous. Advice to women who want financial freedom and are very excited to enter the derivative field? Continue working your way religiously irrespective of temporary failures. Maintain discipline and do a lot of preparation before entering the markets. Learn to embrace the fact that one bad day or one wrong trade does not define the rest of the year, if you have been disciplined. Expect the Nifty 50 climbing above 23,000 in March after reading options data? As per my analysis, I was looking at Nifty targets till 22,500 – 22,800 first. Any further correction or upside will be re-evaluated then. Top two positional bets for March and why? Since volatility is at its peak now, a good balance approach is important. Hence, my first pick would be as a defence play: Buy Dabur India with a support at Rs 525-520 zones and look for upside targets till Rs 585/600. Buy Glenmark Pharma with a support of Rs 920 and target of Rs 1,020/1,035. Nifty or Bank Nifty strategy for next week? FIIs net long position as on date is at 40 percent, which is quite steady. If it crosses 45 percent, then a strong short covering rally can come which will propel markets to a new highs and Nifty can test 23,000. Bank Nifty is also on a strong momentum and can move towards 49,500/50,000 zones from here. We have been recommending largecap private banks and PSUs to our clients on a regular basis, and I still feel Axis Bank and SBI can see further meaningful upside from here in the March series. The other sectors participating strongly now are chemicals, FMCG, technology, energy. So, I retain my view to go long in Tata Power, Reliance Industries, SRF, GNFC, Infosys, and Birlasoft. For option traders, Bull Call spread on Nifty monthly expiry with 22,500 CE buy and 23,100 CE sell can be done (do not forget to keep stop losses as per risk appetite). A Bull Call spread comprises buying one Call option with a lower strike price and simultaneously selling a Call option with a higher strike price. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Implementing a stop-loss strategy to mitigate potential losses in case of adverse market movements. Position Sizing: Adhering to proper position sizing principles to ensure risk is managed effectively and in line with overall portfolio objectives. Conclusion: In conclusion, my journey into derivatives has been marked by challenges, opportunities, and unwavering passion. As I continue to navigate the intricacies of this dynamic realm, I remain committed to embracing the unpredictability of each trading day, knowing that therein lies the potential for continued success and growth. Disclaimer: This trade idea is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by khushaljain023
2
📢 Quad witching. What is it? What to expect? How to trade it.First thing, it's actually triple-witching now. There used to be a 4th contract, but now there's only 3. 3 contracts expire on this day: Index futures (S&P, Dow) contracts Index options (i.e. SP:SPX ) contracts Stock options ( NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:NVDA etc) contracts Single stock futures contracts. They don't exist anymore. That's why it's TRIPLE witching now. This only happens in March, June, September, and December. The third Friday. For example, when you buy "AAPL 100c 9/15/23", the date is the expiration. Only if it's ITM and you're holding before close, you will have to decide to KEEP your contracts, ROLL them over, or SELL them. If you KEEP, you'll get 100 shares per contract. Now imagine $3.4T worth of contracts having to go through that on the same day. Volatility. There's $3.4T worth of contracts expiring tomorrow--- the highest ever in any September expiration, and the 6th largest ever. 10 of the last 11 September witching, SPY finished red around -0.50%. I calculated the range for SPY during the last 3 years of witching, it's around 6.5-7 points. The ATR for SPY for the last 60 days is 4.58 points. The week after September witching tends to be a rollercoaster ride. March 20, 2020 was a witching day (yes pandemic, but good to know) So what should you do? If you have no experience, do nothing. If you're **day-trading**, take your gains quickly and don't expect a lot. If you're adding to your swings, wait for good dips. Expect the highest volatility around 2-4 PM. Don't trade 0DTE. If you do, don't hold for glory. Lol. Watch for impulsive moves causing SL raids Watch the closely. It will be very telling since whales will be readjusting positions and possibly rolling/ reloading. Expect volatility. High volume on indices, major stocks, and further out option contracts (people rolling over their contracts) Expect liquidity grabs, fake outs, etc. If you don't trade it, enjoy the volatility. Watch TVC:VIX (volatility index) Don't go heavy on any positions. Buy slow, don't chase, and ask questions if unsure. Don't force trades. Don't FOMO buy. Don't chase. Don't get caught in the volatility. Use support/ resistance/ supply/ demand zones. They work best on these days as they show liquidity grabs, fakeouts, etc. Just looking out. Hope you benefitted. I'll be posting my trades in my community linked below. Welcome to come & follow.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by kingdips
Nifty View - Nov expiry After a fantastic run up from 17k levels to a new 52W we did not saw a retracement in the price. On week to week base i have marked the important fib levels and for a very short term trend 18100 support need to be protected if by any chance we broke the support level we may see the price going for a retracement/gap filling zones. View for the Nov month expiry will be the 18200-18500 if these levels are protected we can see the expiry somewhere in between and if either side gives up we may see a major move.
NSE:NIFTY
by Oreomonster
NIFTY THURSDAY 4 AUGUST OPTION EXPIRY ANALYSISAccording to our yesterday analysis,price could not break higher or lower S & R levels and remained sideways the whole day. Yesterday we saw the W pattern today we can see the CUP and HANDLE (which we can expect tomorrow to complete) pattern. So tomorrow if price breaks below 17380 we can assume to be a continuation of todays remaining part of the handle (cup and handle) pattern. As we discussed earlier in last week"s analysis price coudn"t break 17100 ...17450 supply and demand area. Tomorrow we can expect price to move out of this range if price gapsup above 17450 level or opens near todays closing price and breaks the 17450 level till afternoon.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by stockssimplyfy
NIFTY - Possible Trade for Today- 14-07-2022As discussed in our study yesterday, the index was not able to sustain above 16120 and the witnessed a move to lower levels and close below 16000 yesterday. Options OI build up in the weekly expiry suggest 15800 -15700 to be a support area. On the upside move towards 16100 could see fresh shorts getting added. For the day the market can remain range bound and trade between 16100 and 15800. We maintain a mild negative bias and hence any upmove towards 16100 levels can be used for building short positions. Shorts will need to be squared off if the market starts trading consistently above 16100. Important levels for the day are given below Bullish Above 16100 Possible Upside Targets - 16180/16230/16280/16310 Bearish Below 16080 Possible Downside Targets - 16000/15920/15880/15840/15800. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is for educational purpose and the author does not assume any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the analysis. Consult your financial advisor before making any trades
NSE:NIFTY
by binuppaul
NIFTY- Possible Trade for Today -13-06-2022NIFTY could not hold on to the gains made last week and closed below 16100 yesterday. With the CPI data coming in a bit lower than the last period, there can be some sentiment positive in the market. However the fact that the CPI is still above 7 percent is a cause of worry for the markets, especially for the banking space. We may see an opening with a positive bias but need to be cautious about NIFTY if it is not able to sustain 16100 levels which is an important zone from an FnO data perspective. If NIFTY starts trading below 16100, we can see the index moving to lower levels. Important levels for the day are mentioned below Bullish Above 16120 Possible Upside Targets -16160/16210/16280 Bearish Below 16100 Possible Downside Targets - 16040/16000/15980/15940 levels. Disclaimer: The analysis provided is for educational purpose and the author does not assume any responsibility for the trades initiated based on the analysis. Consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:NIFTY
by binuppaul