Bank Nifty 15 Oct Expiry StrategyBank nifty expiry day strategy the bias is towards trend continuation however we are witnessing that BN is making trending move on expiry thus a possibility of sideways confused movement is there today.
Expiry
Banknifty Possible Targets for the October 1st WeekBank nifty is trading with comforts to distribute sums . Now the much depends upon it to continue the trend or give whipsaws, as for the technicals market has kept bearish view even though a more U shaped recovery to say. However what we notice is that if the U shaped recovery was itself weak then BN would have weaker retracement .232 possibly. Thus a very reasonable target on upper side and more bias towards downward spiral. However we feel a sideways movement would be warranted for the coming week as a cooling off week.
Expiry Day Range for Bank Nifty TomorrowMarked are the Expiry Day range for Bank nifty for tomorrow. The market should close tomorrow within the range with more bullish bias.
Banknifty Expiry Day RangeRange for today's expiry two ranges are possible depending in which zone market opens
Expiry Special Analysis for 13th Aug'2020.OI shows Short Build Up on #banknifty and last one hours was long unwinding on the index.
Tough resistance zone:- 22,372 - 22,550.
180 min trend indicator, showing weakness.
Two harmonic patterns are detected:-
1. AB=CD, which gives a target of 22,294:- High was 22,324, DONE
2. CYPHER, which gives a target of 22,589 and Fibonacci target 22,372/22,550.
I keep on repeating, we are in a broad range of 21k to 23k and 22k is the pivotal point, just play the range until we have decisive breakout or breakdown, that's the untold story of the last 2 months.
Decision Zone 22,099- 22,197
Any stong move is only possible above 22,750.
Potential Reversal Zone is 22,372 - 22,550, if we see any reversal signal here, shorts can be initiated with SL of 21,750.
Trade what you see, not what you feel, trading is all about making money & nothing else.
Trade Log NIFTY August 6From my August 5 update, I expected
NIFTY has strong resistance at 11228. Any bounce tomorrow upto 11228, excellent shorting opportunity with clear stop.
News driven action likely tomorrow.
I expect consolidation to bearish movement tomorrow.
NIFTY was choppy, but not necessarily bearish. The short from 11228 was a good setup, but too fast to trade as it was a news driven day.
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My trades
I did not trade today.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed above 11200, that is 0.89% up.
BANK NIFTY closed 0.62% up.
VIX closed 1.77% down
Advance Decline ratio is 39 to 11
It was a weekly expiry and overall a choppy day.
Overall, it was 3rd up day after 4 consecutive down day. Tomorrow’s price action will be a test if the current bounce is strong enough to start a new swing higher.
I’ll look for a short if NIFTY is in the zone 11280-11300 zone. If NIFTY is trying to retest high, then it should not close above the previous swing high that is 11300. This is more positional short. From intra-day view, good opportunity on either side only after crossing one of extremes - 11250 and on downside 11130.
My view for tomorrow
I am again expecting consolidation to a bearish day. As I said, good setup for reversal around 11280-11300.
Expiry Special Analysis for 6th Aug'2020.OI down by 1.39% and price up by 0.09%, shows FNO neutral setup and Doji formation on the daily chart shows indecision.
Today fall from 11:15 to 12:15 is due to shorting & long unwinding, long unwinding is a thing of worry.
Today is the second day in we made lower low (21,449) and higher high (21,933)
4th Aug LL:21,065 and HH:21,574
29th July to 3rd Aug:-
LH: 22,346/22,253/21,807/21,544
LL: 22,906/21,580/21,375/21,031
Today's high is 68.5% of the last wave of fall.
Decision Zone 21,449- 21,651
I posted yesterday "Pullback till 21,865 / 22,122/22,380 might be on cards till 20,065 holds."
Today's high was 21,933 was a swing high.
I won't make positional short until #banknifty closes below 21k or might be at much higher levels above 22k (where I will post).
Broadly speaking:- 21,000 to 23,000 is the range and below 22,000 we have negative & above positive.
Trade Log NIFTY July 30In my trade log of July 29, I commented
The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially.
This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully.
Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day.
Review
NIFTY is well on its touch of 10950-11000 range.
The attempt towards 11270, which I was monitoring failed. This prompted me to take trade early.
It looked a lot worse than consolidation day. NIFTY broke down marginally the range of 11110-11300.
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My Trades
The first hour trade was bullish as the opening range broke. But when there was no momentum towards 11300. I exited that at the target.
I was watching the triangular pattern that was getting formed, when it broke down, I bought 11200 PUT. I rarely buy PUTs. I bought PUTS for the next expiry to avoid time decay. And another reason to capture the entire move as I the support below was around 11150, 125 points below.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed 11102, down -0.90%.
BANK NIFTY down -1.95%
VIX gained 2.55%
Advance Decline ratio is 13 to 37. Broader market showing 1:2 advance decline
Option data for new series showing range of 11000-11200.
FII and DII data neutral.
NIFTY created an important pattern today, which is the intermediate term topping pattern. If this pattern holds, NIFTY won't be crossing 11140 tomorrow. And breakdown towards 11040 and then 11960 looks very likely. Option data also shows not much resistance expected till 11000.
My view
Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day.
July 29 Post
Banknifty on the path of Break and make Its a happy short covering since last two days in the BN however a sense of confusion will evade only above the pink box (large). We will take Sell of Call options above this area aggresively and on Monday can witness retracement to test near term support level.
Follow us on twitter and Tlgm
Expiry Special Analysis for 16th July''2020.
#banknifty #trading #stratergy
Most important for bears, SL for shorts 21,935 (Well defined SL).
Wave 4 completed at 21,935 ( 49.82% of Wave 3).
Wave 5 has 3 targets 21,496 (complted)/ 21,225 (completed) / 21,057
Wave 5 is completed or yet to be completed is a question mark.
Will focus on the trend line joining 22,995,22650,21935, pls keep a close watch the trendline.
Double button at 21,255 - 21,230 ( which will act as support).
100% of the price formation is within the rounding top from 26th June.
Will avoid trading in the decision zone 21,639 - 21,736.
I have kept the levels and analysis very simple for a layman to understand.
NIFTY Expiry Trading RangeNifty is expected to trade in Range with most of the indices stock at short term support level.
Trade Log NIFTY June 25I'll review what I anticipated in my post yesterday
1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm.
2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly.
3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430
I did not make clear statement, but overall action looks consolidation as trend dictated.
My trades today
I did not trade today. Mostly because of many trading moves we had so far this month.
My observations for the day.
1. NIFTY moved in the relatively narrow range this expiry. It closed -0.16% lower.
2. BANKNIFTY closed 0.37% higher.
3. VIX is below 30. It gained 0.51%
4. Advance Decline ratio is 16 to 34. That is bad.
5. Option chain again showing bias towards consolidation in range of 10000-10500.
My view for tomorrow
1. NIFTY consolidated after the fall. To assess, if the fall on Wednesday was corrective or start of a new swing, I need to wait till Friday.
2. Friday, if NIFTY continues downwards journey, It may quickly succumb to pressure and move towards 10050 area soon. Closing above 10390 again, will confirm the consolidation.
3. I have a bearish bias for Friday and I will not take any trades on long side unless I see NIFTY trading above 10390.
Overall, I see today and next 2-3 sessions as key price action sessions. On weekly chart, I observe clear contraction of price range. This may lead to breakout/ breakdown soon. And usually this time break (which will likely to be on downside) has higher chances of leading to good swing move./b]
Nifty 50 02nd July expiryNifty is following this channel (displayed in chart) in the medium term. Moreover, it formed Bearish Engulfing candle today. Tomorrow, it may open Gap down.
Trade Log NIFTY May 28First, I'll start with reviewing my yesterdays post
I had said
1. I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form.
2. I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000.
As per plan, I traded light and also stopped trading around 1.30PM
My trades today:
1) This trade was pretty simple. I sold 9400 PUT on open and waited for first sign of weakness.
2) Then when there was failure to continue, I sold 9400 CALL and then squared near bottom of the range.
My Observations today:
1) Expiry day today. NIFTY gained 1.88%
2) BANKNIFTY gained 2.45%
3) INDIA VIX fell 4%
4) Advance Decline is 42 to 8. Broader market 1245 to 531. So it was broad based buying.
5) For next week, Option data shows bullish bets, Highest OI at 9000 and 9500.
My reading of the price action.
1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow.
2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week.
I have also marked important levels tomorrow.
Trade Log NIFTY May 7
In my yesterday's market review, I had said
1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend.
2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow.
3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight.
Point 3, around uneventful expiry turned to be correct. The expiry happened around 9200 with lot of chopping moves.
I have the following observations about today's price action
1. Market was very choppy and formed indecisive candle, which is inside candle as well.
2. The action around 9200 -9230, It was a narrow range action - no trade possible.
3. Bank NIFTY also traded in very narrow range.
4. Breadth was bad. 11 Advances and 29 declines.
4. Option writers again going in with 9000 as lower limit and then 9300 upwards calls were written.
All this means
1. Trend is negative. and market paused today.
2. Sometime soon, may be tomorrow, there will be expansion of the range. On downside till 9000. And for upside, first NIFTY needs to build above 9350.
For tomorrow,
1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000.
2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side.
3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350.
Live Update @ 12:18 PM Bank Nifty - Expiry#banknifty
#niftybank
#expiry
Levels on CHART, we short below the yellow zone and long above yellow zone, zone low & high as SL.
Expiry Trading Plan for Bank Nifty7th May'2012 Bank Nifty Weekly Expiry Plan.
@@ Pivot Zone:- 19,588 - 19,480 Above +ve Below -ve
Levels on chart to book profit, fresh weakness only 19250.
The market may be volatile, trade with SL, and book small profit.
Trade Log NIFTY April 30Expiry day today. Gap up is huge and there is very little chance for me to participate any trade. Still scalped small profit.
Few Observations for today:
1. Bank NIFTY initially surged but closed around Low of the day.
2. Advance and Decline ratio is not great.
3. This market surged in straight line from 9270 to 9860. This is 600 points rise in 2.5 days.
4. VIX has not fallen today.
Till we cross 10000 - 10500 zone, we are still in large down move.
Hence I'll be careful of going long till this view invalidates. Considering this background, May month may start volatile. Mostly on downside.
Expiry Special :- Bank Nifty 23th Apr'2020Inverted H&S breakout on 15 min chart, levels on the chart.
The target of breakout is approx 20090, you can safely assume if 19900 is crosses then you see BN flying 200 points in couple of mins.
The setup is negated if the GREEN trend line is violated.
It's better to avoid trades in the yellow zone, once the price crosses the zone take the directional move.
Will review during live hours if the setup needs to alter, keep liking, and following me.
Trade Log NIFTY April 16Expiry Day today. I had sold OTM calls 9400, 9300 and 9100.
This was mainly because.
1. NIFTY reversed sharply from resistance zone between 9250-9300.
2. I think the reversal was strong and made lower low on daily frame.
3. The monthly trend still remains bearish and weekly trend is sideways.
No new trades today. Overall traded as per plan.
1. NIFTY reversed from the opening and then held the opening level.
2. The Overall movement is less and INDIAVIX is below 50 now.
Expiry Special :- 16th Apr'2020 Bank NiftySupport & Resistance on the chart, above pivot we are +ve and below -ve.
Use the bigger triangle to trade, price doesn't seem to be moving out of the triangle.
