Video Explanation of SPA Low Marketcap, Very Bullish OverallWith a Previous high of $0.20 in a Bear Market This Coin being a Penny is pretty significant. We've been forming a support line that's been relevant for at least 18 months.
Zooming in the Support Line was tapped 4 Times and looks like it has no intention on coming back. ADX is high looking as if it's going to continue going as such. MACD Still looks bullish as can be.
This is a wonderful project i believe there's a lot of faith in.
Let me Show you something interesting about SPA is it's recently been coming up on our market sifter and Breakout finder on the BTC Pair
Tracking Tech Market Sifter,
📈 *Name*: Sperax
🔖 *Symbol*: SPA
💲 *Price*: $0.011076170319746786
📉 *24h Change*: -9.79%
📊 *7d Change*: -17.16%
💰 *Market Cap*: $18_737_070.61
🔄 *24h Volume*: $13_850_112.77
🏷️ *Tags*: alameda-research-portfolio, arbitrum-ecosytem, dwf-labs-portfolio
Do Your Own Research as Always
Explained
VIX - THE RECESSION INEVITABLE?The "VIX = Volatility Index S&P500" has predicted us in the last 3 decades, quite reliable possible "extreme movements".
= Why in the next 2-years such an event could occur, we will take a closer look in the following article.
WHAT IS THE VOLATILITY INDEX S&P500
= Expresses the expected range of fluctuation of the U.S. stock index S&P 500.
= To determine volatility, it measures the distribution of options that run on these stocks.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 1st part = VIX
- 2nd part = VIX PROPERTIES + USE
- 3rd part = CURRENT SITUATION
- 4th part = CONCLUSION
PART ONE
"PAST."
If you compare the past of the "VIX" with the S&P500, you will notice that the - 36.47 - mark played / continues to play a very important role.
Every time the "VIX" exceeded the - 36.47 -, there was extreme volatility in the S&P500 and other asset classes.
PAST EXTREME MOVEMENTS .
> 01.10.1998
> 01.10.2008
> 03/02/2020 (near crash)
Why the VIX has such a big impact on the S&P500 and how we can actively factor this into our trading follows in part two.
PART TWO
"VIX CHARACTERISTICS"
The "VIX" provides information on how serious fluctuations could be based on the option volume.
= "VIX" goes up -> Statistically more likely that the S&P500 will fall.
= "VIX" goes down -> Probably that the S&P500 gains slightly.
Additionally, it can be noted that as soon as the "VIX" gets close to - 36.47 - many market participants take profits.
WHY IS THIS SO?
The market has already reached a "VERY VOLATILE point".
> Price - FALLS - fast = SHORT positions will take profits > BUY
> Price - RISES - fast = LONG positions will take profits > SELL
CONSIDERATION OF "VIX" IN TRADING?
"VIX" = Negative correlation to the S&P500 = "VIX" goes up = S&P500 goes down.
= This negative correlation occurs because institutional investors use options to hedge against high volatility (hedge against stocks).
RISING "VIX"
= less liquidity in the stock markets + position reduction = stocks fall
FALLING "VIX"
= More liquidity in the equity markets + position building = equities rise
PART THREE
"CURRENT SITUATION"
> The "CORONA crash" could not make a new HH in the "VIX", which is why this could still be pending at the current view.
= 2020 the market "fell" "35.41%" in the SPX
= 2008 the market "fell" "57.69%" in the SPX
With the technical analysis, I come with the current constellation, to a higher "VIX" value than the 2008 reached.
= which would mean a bigger sell-off.
> Since 2018, we have been testing a "falling resistance line."
= Similar resistance lines resulted in the past when broken, with significant volatility + movement in the S&P500 (= traditional markets).
= The current resistance line has been respected several times, resulting in reactions.
> The "rising resistance line" since 1990 + "the arc" + "the macroeconomic environment", suggest another "VIX" breakout .
> The rising resistance line was tested at the two "extremes" - 01.10.1998 + 01.10.2008 - on.
= this meant, both times, the temporary end of the extreme volatility
= in 2020 we could not reach it, which additionally suggests another "breakout".
> If the price trend continues to consider the direction of the arc, then this leads us to a much higher target than 2008 / ever before.
PART FOUR
CONCLUSION
"If the VIX is high, then it's time to buy, if the VIX is slow, it's time to go"
> Regardless of the outcome of the analysis, anyone who hasn't used the VIX before should now have gained a little insight.
The future looks anything but bright for now, however we can use this time to learn and grow .
The VIX could delay the final decision for another 2-years, which is certainly to the advantage of each of us.
= Despite this still "long" period of time, a decision will be made in the future.
> Let's discuss it in the comments and exchange our perspectives, your view on the whole thing would interest me "burning".
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would greatly appreciate a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
FTT - FUD ON THE ABYSSThe "FTT token" is the native cryptocurrency token of the trading platform FTX.
> Sam Bankman-Fried is one of the founders of the platform and is considered the "young Elon Musk" in community circles.
> For some time, "rumors / speculations" started that the separate company behind FTX = ALAMEDA (investment fund) might be insolvent. (both companies are owned by Sam Bankman-Fried).
> The reason is lack of liquidity of ALAMEDA balance sheet, which consists of Illiquid crypto collateral, + lack of cash reserves.
> After asking for evidence, the answer was indirectly dodged.
Yesterday, the founder of BINANCE had announced on Twitter that he will liquidate his existing FTT tokens.
As a reason for his decision, he cited a lack of trust and looking back at the last "disasters" with "Celsius", "LUNA" + "3Arrow", he does not want to expose himself to any additional risk.
It should be noted that the announcement of the Binance founder from the timing, a supposed death blow - Spartan scale resembles.
> With this he poured oil on the existing fire and the situation could escalate at any time.
> Should there be a "bank run" on the company + the token here if necessary, you can in the following analysis, get a picture of the possible crash.
The probability that this problem will be solved is of course in the room, a possible "loss of face" Sam / FTX / ALAMEDA - can no longer afford.
> Result = wait and see and rather stay out of trading - that will end in liquidation, both directions. .
We are, with the course, at several last SUPPORT levels.
> Should these be significantly broken, it will be a fast descent!
> If the rumors are true, this will additionally mean another sell-off for the crypto markets.
RELEVANT LEVEL
- 22.00 USD
- 20.00 USD
- 19.82 USD (SIGNIFICANT BREAK = crash)
WEEKLY VIEW
3 DAY VIEW
DAY VIEW
> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.
Thank you and happy trading!
🟩 AVD - setup recapAVD had a nice cheat that set up! It did breakout on 26/7 however it did so on BELOW average volume. This triggered alerts on my end, however due to the low volume I didn not buy. It then paused and subsequently we got a follow on rally whenre I bought the stock (buy price @23.36) that ended with a +180% volume increase. The stock advanced +3.32% on that day.
Important Lesson
Breakout volume is required to start a position
Sometimes institutional volume support might come in the following days
MAY22 WHY IT MOVED THE WAY IT MOVEDMovements based on fib IB and POC just like any other month. Bad risk management lead to a loss in my account.
8 or more possible trades came into play this month. Learn from this rather than citing this as waste of time. Past experience on real life chart paves the way to your success.
1. 2 may
2. 3 may
3. 4 may
explained more in here see the way price acted on low time frame
4. 5 may
7hr patience on a failed trade
5. 5 may
low time frame reaction
6. 12 may
the bottom
7. 15 may
catching a reversal possible scalp
8. 30 may
skipped on multiple range entries. don't remember much
9. 31 may
Legendary ABC Short and an SFP
How Market Manipulation WorksEver find yourself agreeing with someone who complains about rampant market manipulation, even though you don't really know how it happens or where it comes from? If so, do not feel embarrassed; the person complaining about it probably doesn't know either.
The truth is that the practice is so blatant and routine these days that it hides in plain sight. That, or it has simply become a modern taboo among those in power because widespread exposure of it could pose as a significant risk to said power.
Either way, it has gotten so ridiculous lately that it needs to stop before it potentially damages the all-important trust dynamic that maintains the "free" system's status quo.
Thus, let us begin this enlightening discussion with identifying who the direct culprits are.
These would be just about every financial institution that operates in some form as a Market Maker (MM) of weekly equity options. Yes - even your friendly mainstream broker that you had assumed was rooting for your financial success. Basically, if you can purchase weekly put options from them, they are part of the problem.
While this seems absurd, let's just discuss how markets get manipulated before you dismiss the idea entirely.
Markets can get manipulated through any number of sketchy practices. Just refer to the FINRA website and you will find terms for such practices, as well as laws governing their misuse. (Like when crude oil futures reach real negative levels, lol). But, the most tangibly-felt form of manipulation occurs in the way that is depicted in the chart above: by preventing markets from breaking out in either direction, particularly on days when options are set to expire. Quadruple Witching days, for example, are named as such because of how "supernatural" price movements tend to be throughout their sessions. This is complete nonsense, of course, since they move according to how the culprits want them to move - within a pre-defined range that is designed to suck traders into false-breakouts only to close very near the daily opening-cross.
The process of such a corrupt practice is known as price-pinning and it is at the core of every inexplicable market observation that seems uncannily perfect - like when markets only reveal their true direction during the last singular minute of trading. Note the extreme volume abnormality underlying the last-minute candle of today's E-mini session for a perfect example of this.
Despite what is commonly accepted, it is actually the case that MMs are essentially omnipotent, insofar as they can, and do, directly determine the opening and closing prices of individual issues - even on smaller timeframes such as the hourly or 15-minute scales. On most trading days, it is even possible for them to control outcomes on entire indices because of how influential options have become in today's market environment. The really serious problem with this is that it causes markets to crash wildly leading to widespread loss of wealth and subsequent economic severities.
How does too much power in free market system lead to the system crashing? It is because MMs are human beings and are therefore prone to making emotionally-charged mistakes; like getting cocky during times of persistently scarce volatility.
What ends up happening is that on very rare occasions, even bigger market players (like managers of huge pension funds that can affect markets absolutely) decide to unwind their long-held pure-equity positions accumulated over several years in a discreet manner. All the while, greedy/overconfident MMs continue to sell extreme quantities of put options to the public, thinking that there is no possible way that they'd ever need to pay for them at expiration. They'd be correct about this 99.99% of the time, and so they fail to realize how dangerous of a situation their in and how stupid it is to blindly sell such large quantities of out-the-money puts on the open market. The selling is so violent at the point of realization that MMs have no choice but to sell everything at once - even if everyone else suffers from the resultant market crash.
At this point, you might be wondering how this rare scenario has anything to do with the prevalent practice of price-pinning.
It relates because what normally happens when MMs get ahead of themselves in terms of how many puts they short on an expiration day is that they end up offsetting their risk via the mass purchasing of call options as the expiration nears. The calls become cheap enough that the entire cost of this process of risk hedging is pennies when considering the profits generated from selling the much more expensive time-heavy puts to the public. It is also a much more practical way to cover, which is why markets rarely make significant moves (especially downward) on Fridays. The process of MMs selling out-of-the-money puts, which they knowingly perceive as riskless for an exorbitant premium only to turn around and use call options to prevent prices from moving for the rest of the day IS THE MANIPULATION.
To reiterate, what I am saying is that the common form of market manipulation that most people arbitrarily place their blame on is the weekly Market Making process of covering themselves every Friday (and sometimes Wednesdays and Mondays as well) that is the de facto Manipulation that I am trying to convey in the chart above.
The reason why this process should be acknowledged as an illegal manipulative practice, rather than just some existential side-effect that comes with ever-evolving complex market systems is because:
1) It is enabling large institutions to sell grossly mispriced derivatives en masse with no intention of realizing the equivalent risk
2) It is a literal form of manipulation, as per the definition of the word "manipulation"
3) Once understood, it becomes blatantly obvious that markets lack the freedom that has always been pre-supposed, which will eventually change the nature of our
market to something non-sensical, like the concept of equal-outcome investments (you cannot grow your wealth in a market that grows everyone else's wealth at the
same pace, since that is just pure inflation).
To finish this lesson, I will use the chart of yesterday's price/volume action of the S&P futures as an example of how the manipulation of price-pinning can be applied practically:
1) Start with the obvious outlier that is the selling volume incurred at 3:59 p.m. yesterday
2) What this represents is the true bearish sentiment that should have resulted in a panic-sell to close the week
3) The reason why this panic sell never occurred is because MMs had bought very cheap call options starting around noon
4) Specifically, as soon as MMs feared that sentiment had turned bearish enough to threaten their short-put liability, they started covering with calls
5) This can be seen in the upper half of the chart, on the second breakdown, which notched the LOD
6) We can rule out the possibility of a major support bounce because the LOD is simply not a major point of support even if near the 4500 level.
7) This can be corroborated by the lack of historical price action around such high levels of the S&P. To naturally prevent a breakdown of this nature would require a more
historically tested level of support, in my opinion
8) Manipulation resulting from too much leverage and greedy MMs created a very tiny snapshot of the wrongdoing, which is captured full-circle in the volume reading of the last minute of the session.
I hope I was able to present this entire idea in a sensible way. Manipulative practices are very hard to pinpoint, prove and define, which is partially why they can persist for months on end. On a personal note, I really hate this type of market environment because it sucks to trade and limits the possibility of what makes markets fun in the first place. Ironically, I am sort of doing the very kind of complaining that I made fun of in the opening paragraph - the only difference is that I am certain about what is causing my frustration.
-Pig-Police
CME_MINI:ES1!
AMEX:SPY
SP:SPX
CURRENCYCOM:US500
DJ:DWCPF
USDCHF - Bullish Breakout expected - Trade Idea in Description
*** Trade at your own risk! ***
*** Not every idea is also traded by us ***
Hi Traders!
Daily TF:
Ascending Triangle
- Equation: Higher Lows + Equal Highs = Bullish Breakout (!!Execpt Downtrend --> Bearish Triangle)
- Buyers accept higher prices while Sellers keep selling from same price
- Seller could potentially expect a higher price in future
- Seller could worry that his target price is coming nearer
Bullish Price Action
- Often indicates the moves of Market Makers --> buying with bigger Lotsizes
Strong Weekly Resistance
- Market keeps reacting less and less to the Resistance --> gets weaker
H4-TF:
Potential Trade Setup:
We have an inner Trendline and a potential outer Trendline. The outer Trendline is potential as we don't have a third touch yet.
However, the market made a Trend Move and reached the Resistance with lots of Momentum.
That's why it is potential that the market makes a Retracement Move now.
(In an Trend, we have a Trending Move after Retracement Move after Trending Move and so on.)
The Retracement Move will probably end at the support.
It is important to analyse the Price Action of the market when it reaches the dashed support line.
If we see bullish PA (e.g. bigger green candles, long bearish wicks, etc.) then we can expect the market to move up.
After we see the first higher High, we can trade the price.
The SL should be below the last Low.
The first TP should be at the Resistance in case market tends to come back.
You can use some kind of Trailing Stop to ride the Up-Movement.
If you have any questions, another Point of View or anything else to share, don't hesitate to comment!
Thanks and successful Trading :-)!
Merry Christmas ! This Chart Fully Maps Out How We Want To Follow The Market Makers!!! Please Refer To This Chart For A Fukl Walk Through Of How We Are Attacking Gold These Next Two Weeks!!! WE ARE ROBBING THE GOLD MINES THIS CHRISTMAS SEASON!!! So To ALL!!! MERRY CHRISTMAS!! AND MAY THE FORCE BE WITH EVERY ONE OF YOU!!
📚EDUCATION: THE BASICS OF TRADING EXPLAINED📚
Hello, Traders!
The basics of what it takes to be a successful trader are simple and obvious
Yet daily, I see traders who fail at one or multiple KEY points that sink their performance and they keep losing accounts even though these people do have the understanding of the market that would have been sufficient enough for them to be profitable if they followed the basic rules. Trading is as much about pattern recognition and capacity for abstract thinking as it is about the personality type, self-discipline, and specific mindset.
The lucky few are born fit for trading, but others might train themselves.
Below, is the breakdown of the basics behind the day trading!
✅ TRADING IS A BUSINESS NOT GAMBLING
99% of the new traders have unrealistic expectations of the kind of returns trading might deliver. To make matters worse, they do not realize that it will take years of trial and error before they can make trading Their only source of income.
These delusions make the newbies treat trading like gambling. To AVOID this, please follow these 4 easy steps:
🔥SET AND KEEP YOUR RISK-REWARD.
I recommend risking no more than 1% of the deposit per each trade, which also implies using a variable lot size for every trade, so that no matter the SL
size in pips, or the pair you are trading, the dollar value of the RIKS remains the same with each trade. That way, you are in full control of the risks you
are taking.
🔥DO NOT GO ALL IN.
Sounds obvious, but I’ve seen it so many times. New traders, who lost 70% of the account, GO ALL IN on one trade that they think might help them
recover the balance. That is NEITHER a way to trade, nor a way to learn. Slowly losing your account while learning how to trade, is simply a fee that you
are paying the market for your education. Accept it or fail.
🔥PROTECT CAPITAL=USE SL
I can’t stress this enough and I BEG YOU to use SL. Do NOT enter the trade thinking that if the SL level that you had in mind is hit you will close
manually. You will NOT close the position, and the longer you hold it the more is the temptation to wait a bit more because it seems that the reversal is
coming soon.
🔥CUT LOSSES
Set a daily loss limit. For example, you can Ban yourself from trading for the rest of the day if you lost more than 3 trades in a row. You will enter what
is called a tilt most likely, and you will NOT be productive that day. The same goes for a week. Lost more than 10% of the account in a week? Next week
NO TRADING for you. Watch the market passively, or trade on the demo! By the way, That can be helpful even for professional traders too!
✅KEEPING A COOL HEAD IS KEY
The ideal trader is the one who can set all emotions aside as a robot would, while simultaneously keeping the versatility of the human mind and the intuition, that the machines lack(yet). It is of utmost importance for the new traders to understand that being right about the direction but entering too early or too late is the same as being WRONG because the result will be a LOSS.
Here is how to keep cool:
🔥CONTROL YOUR EMOTIONS.
Both euphoria and a panic attack are your enemies so the more detached you are, the better. Emotions are for the casino, and we are doing business
here, remember?
🔥AVOID FOMO( FEAR OF MISSING OUT)
That one applies mostly to the trades that you are not so sure about, but still want to take them, in fear of not making money. And the early entries are
determined by FOMO too( what if the price does not reach my limit order, and the trade plays out well, but without ME?)
FOMO is Incredibly counterproductive, don't let it control you!
🔥DON’T FOLLOW OTHERS
Avoid herd mentality! 99% of traders lose money, so doing what everyone does inevitably lands you in the 99% category.
🔥BUILD A WATCH LIST
A LOT of the beginners try to PREDICT behavior of the particular instrument that they decided to trade for some reason, instead of going through the
pairs looking for a ready setup that you KNOW works. The former approach leads to finding patterns, key levels, and setups that just aren’t there.
Naturally, the result of trading these is an inevitable LOSS.You should Build a watchlist big enough for your to have a choice, and go through it at
regular intervals, looking for opportunities but NOT INVENTING them.
✅ CONSISTENCY OVER BOOM-BUST STYLE
Consistent trading is the only way to make trading a reliable source of income. Slow but steady gains always beat leap-like boom-bust performance.
The psychological pressure of the latter will most likely break you sooner or later, and who needs gray hair in their 30es anyway?
That is how you achieve consistency:
🔥FIND A STRATEGY
Do the research on multiple trading strategies and pick those that you understand and that are compatible with your personality.
🔥USE PAPER TRADING AND BACKTESTING
To select which strategy is right for you, use backtesting to see how the strategy performed in the past. And use paper trading to see how the strategy
works in real-time.Once you chose the strategy, go back to paper trading and backtesting to polish it.
🔥TRACK YOUR TRADES
Keeping track of your trading! Working with that data is an invaluable tule for the trader, that helps identify your strengths and weaknesses, while also
helping you notice patterns in your trading that would have been left unrecognized otherwise.
🔥FORMALIZE YOUR RULES
Objectivity is KEY for consistent trading because during the rough patches of the market, being sure of your rules helps you stay in the market, waiting
for the tailwind, instead of questioning your strategy or your implementation of it. Create a strict ALGORITHM and follow it step by step. In order to do
that, you need to define every element of your strategy as precisely as possible. For example, a level for you is a daily horizontal level with at least 3
touchpoints, a breakout is valid only if the 4H candle closed above the level, etc...
The less vague the terms, the fewer emotions will be involved in deciding whether to enter the trade or not.
❗️ IN CONCLUSION: If you want to become a trader, remember:
1- It will take YEARS to learn how to trade.
2- You will lose a TON of money in the process
3- You will FAIL with 95% probability.
4-Realistic returns from trading are WAY lower than you think
5-BUT when you succeed, you will set yourself free!
Please SUPPORT This Idea By A LIKE and COMMENT!
Everything about the Stochastic oscillator !!!!Hello everyone , as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
A lot of people asked me about the Stochastic oscillator so i prepared this video for you guys explaining it please enjoy .
or if you prefer to reading :
First thing you need to know is that the stochastic oscillator is a momentum index just like the RSI it looks at the price momentum.
A DR.George Lane developed it in the 1950s.
So let us talk about the stochastic oscillator now
it has 2 lines %K (blue color) and %D (Red color)
this is how we use it :
1_ the Stochastic oscillator indicates overbought and oversold state of the market cuz the stochastic is a bounded indicator that means its bounded between 0 and 100 range ( above 80 overbought , bellow 20 oversold )
2_we use it to identify buy and sell signals using crossovers:
• If %K crosses below %D then it’s a sell signal
• If %k crosses above %D then it’s a buy signal
3_Divergance between the price and the Oscillator
We have 2 types of the Stochastic Oscillator:
Fast and slow
The difference between the Fast and Slow stochastic is:
1. The Fast stochastic is more sensitive than the Slow stochastic ( the most common problem for oscillators is the number of false signals that they give so the Slow stochastic tries to solve that problem )
2. Slow stochastic smooths out the %K line by averaging over (d) period
so let me make it simple the %K line in the Slow Stochastic is like the %D in the fast stochastic
Now let us talk about the Formula
%K=100. (C-Ln/Hn-Ln)
Where C is the current closing price
Ln is low in (n) period
Hn is high in (n) period
(n) Is the number of period and the default value for (n) is 15
Now the %D is calculated like this
%D=average %K/ (d) period
(d) Is the number for period and the default value for (d) is 3
Make sure to Follow and Like for more content
If you have any questions please ask
Thank you for reading & watching .
Wyckoff Price Cycle ExplainedAccording to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume and time. As a broker, he was in a position to observe the activities of highly successful individuals and groups who dominated specific issues; consequently, he was able to decipher, via the use of what he called vertical (bar) and figure (Point and Figure) charts, the future intentions of those large interests. An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure above. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown.
GBPUSD 1H timeframeHello Traders and welcome to out channel. This is out thought process for this specific analasys. If you like this idea please support it with a like so we can keep posting more content like this. If you have any additional questions let us know in the comments and we will provide you with the answer! SharkFx wish you a successful trading week!
AUDJPY 1H timeframeHello Traders and welcome to out channel. This is out thought process for this specific analasys. If you like this idea please support it with a like so we can keep posting more content like this. If you have any additional questions let us know in the comments and we will provide you with the answer! SharkFx wish you a successful trading week!
SWKS loosing steam Skyworks is nearing a new high and running out of steam. Heres what the indicators say.
Sell/Buy indicators: SWKS has been marked a buy since 9/25. 4 trading days while our longest buy signal in the past 4 months has lasted 20 days. This is our only indicator not yet supporting a sell but can we spot it first? Lets check out the other indicators.
Moving Average: SWKS is slowly moving closer and closer to its moving average and if history repeats itself, once it falls below the MA we should see a sharp sell off.
Volume: The volume indicator shows we are starting to loose bullish volume.
Relative Strength Indicator: Shows that SWKS is over bought, we should expect some heavy selling because of this.
Indicators are just collections of information that can help us analyze trends to make predictions about the future. SWKS price movement is not guaranteed. Even if it does receive a sell signal. Please trade at your own risk.
RidetheMacro| RISK REWARD PATTERN EXPLAINED (PART 2)Risk Reward Completely Explained in two Educational idea.
If you not check the part one The please Visit the below link for Part (1) and part(2).
Share your Comments Ideas Below to make things more better and understandable for community
Thank you,
How a RETEST works - with Trade IDEA - Pullback explained(Note for professional Traders: If you have some experience on this strategy or
if you feel like something is missing, please comment, so everyone can benefit from it :) Thanks in advance!)
Hi Traders!
Have you ever been in this situation:
The market is clearly in an Uptrend.
Big, Green Candles moving up.
Making higher highs and lows.
Breaking all the major Resistance.
Because of all of this, you hit BUY.
Now...
The market makes a 180° U-turn.
You see your trade is losing.
The Big green candles are now red candles.
Falling towards the Support.
Let's move on...
You think, the Up-Trend is over now.
You now see some red candles in the chart.
You think the trend has changed.
You want to be the one how rides the huge Down-Trend.
You hit SELL.
OK...
The market uses this Support and is Continuing the Up-Trend!
Ouch :(
So, in this idea you'll discover what those so called "Retests" are.
Ask yourself: When does a Retest occur?
If you think correctly, you might have a picture of a breakout in your head.
This Breakout can be anything:
Support and Resistance
Trendline
Fibonacci Levels
Parallel Channel
SMA 20, 50, 200 ...
EMA or other trending indicators
etc. think of anything
After the Breakout the Retest can occur at any time.
NOTE: A Retest does not occur on every Breakout! The market occasionally breaks out without a Retest.
Here we listed some "sorts" of the Retest:
The "classic" Retest
This is the kind of Retest which you can find in every trading book.
Let's get an example:
The market just broke out from major Resistance.
Since there is price action in the movement, the price even moves a few pips further.
It suddenly stopped, made a 180° U-turn and it makes a Pullback.
It tested the previous Resistance (now it is a Support) and continues higher.
What you can use to predict the Retest is over:
- use the 20MA
In a strong Trend the 20MA is often the key level many traders are watching.
So if you notice that the market and the 20MA are far away from each other, than wait for a Retest.
If both are touching each other, the market often continues higher.
- use false breakouts
If you notice that the Support gets broken and fastly comes back, this is a sign that bullish power exists.
Buy the False Break.
- use other indicators
It is also possible to trade it with Bollinger Bands or Parabolic SAR...
The long Retest
As you can see in the third example of the chart, the market broke out and immediatly retests the trendline.
Then it moved very long on the other side of the trendline and finally moves further.
If you zoom in, you can notice a little Trendline which gets broken.
This could serve as an Entry Trigger.
Watch out for other sorts
These Retests can - as every pattern in trading - come up in every kind.
You have to watch it yourself!
In the chart of USDCAD we highlighted three (potentially four) Examples of the Retest.
We hope that we helped you with this idea.
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Thanks and successful Trading :)!
What happened with EURUSD (EXPLAINED and WHAT NEXT)Hello Traders !
We have seen EURUSD dropping a lot today. But WHY?
Actually we have seen there a nice daily level of support which was broken today. Also a Demand Zone. The thing this the Demand Zone became a Supply Zone due to the pressure from the sellers and pushed the price to the downside. We have seen that on the news today. They were good for EUR but it went immediately down which indicates us the pressure from the sellers.
What Next?
My thoughts are that the price will go up to the Supply Zone again. I don't see the Supply Zone very strong because the h4 close shows bullish pressure. We are right now at a daily level of Demand which is very strong. From this Demand Level I expect in all scenarios a push to the Upside. This Up Move is still confirmed by Elliot Wave.
The question right now is: Will it drop again from the Supply Zone? The answer to this question can only tell us Price Action . We need to watch it carefully. Also consider that all the retail Trader will short the EU at the resistance line which was the previous daily level of support.
My thoughts are to buy at the daily level at the bottom and to swing trade EURUSD to the upside or to scalp it till the Supply Zone.
Let me now in the comment section below your view on EURUSD and what you think about my Analysis.
Please leave a Like
Thank you and we will see next time
- Darius.
What is Bitcoin ? | Introduction to Bitcoin and Blockchain1) Introduction
Simply put, Bitcoin is a completely digital currency that is independent of any banks or governments. It uses its own decentralized technology for securing payments and storing money.
Bitcoin (also written as BTC) is a decentralized virtual currency that was created at 2009 by an unknown person using the name Satoshi Nakamoto. Neither does it exist in the physical world nor does it have a central bank such as the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England. There are also a limited amount of bitcoins in the world, according to Bitcoin.org.
2) Fiat currency vs Crypto
While comparing fiat currencies to Bitcoin, it seems that Bitcoin does all the same things as your Dollar, Euro or any other fiat currency. Transforming bitcoin is faster and simple over the network, buying and selling goods and services are becoming more and more popular for bitcoin users and the technology of the Bitcoin includes key features that are based on encryption and digital signatures to ensure safety and security of the whole network. Same as the Dollar, Sterling or Euro, Bitcoins can be exchanged for other currencies at specialized currency exchanges. Bitcoin won the title of the “Online Money” by offering us fast, secure and borderless transactions.
Unlike other currencies that can be physically held, Bitcoins are virtual. There are no forms of physical coins or papers that can be made. Bitcoin users own keys which allow them to prove ownership of transaction in the bitcoin network. Those keys are often stored in a digital wallet in each users computer or another device.
3) Current status
It is working very well for the Bitcoin, gaining the position of the fastest growing payment system in the world. The peer-to-peer network (P2P) of computers are maintaining and replicate a public ledger of accounts referred to as the blockchain. The blockchain is the main reason why cryptocurrencies are here to stay. (Read more here: Understanding Blockchain).
The bitcoin network is nothing but a protocol backed by cryptography. Transactions are confirmed by participants of the bitcoin network through a process known as mining. The miner’s role is adding a real-time transaction to the blockchain, effectively verifying the transactions that are being placed in the network and forging them into the blockchain.
It might sound very complicated if that’s your first time, but after going through the beginner course, you will agree that it is actually very simple!
readbtc.com