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Exponential

The Long Term Growth of Bitcoin until 2020So far even with the ETF, with the scalability problems and everything else, bitcoin has shown a remarkable resistance. Basically it keeps growing from August 2015 inside an Exponential Channel. The channel has a doubling time of 260 days. Which means that as long as the bitcoins are inside you are doubling your money in 9 months. Except that if you buy when it is above, you might need to wait much more (max 465 days, so 1 year and 100 days), and if you are really really luck and clever you could make it in as short as 69 days. Somehow the channel is bounded below by the actual needs of bitcoin. Which is growing exponentially. While above people are trying to invest in the price and buying and selling. It should be worth noting how Bitcoin mining reward halved on the august 2016. This diminished the inflation. What probably happened is that the bitcoin economy was growing, and the number of bitcoin in circulation were also growing, but somehow the two were balanced. When the halvening occurred the quantity of money started not to grow enough respect to the growth of the economy, and the value of bitcoin shoot up. This would mean that when the halvening occurs again, bitcoin should look for a new channel. Of course all this unless the technical limit does not stop it all. Suppose, for example, that every transaction start costing much more than visa, much more than any other mean of exchange, much more than dash, and so on. Then the growth might stop, and bitcoin will reach its level of saturation. If this would happen we would see some other crytpocurrency pick up the exponential growth. Until the need for the whole world for crypto for exchange is saturated.
Long
by piespe
3
Netflix's epic run is over: SHORTWhenever an asset grows at an exponential rate, that is a red flag that a major correction is imminent. Netflix has seen unbelievable growth (along with the other FAANG's) in the past year, and signs are now showing that correction time has begun. Last week, Netflix reported earnings and user expansion slightly lower than the sky high expectations 'analysts' had created for their quarterly report, and the stock fell over 14%. That is a very bad sign. Yes, it recovered extremely strong the next trading day, but fell back to the original 14% decline in the days following. The chart also shows signs that a correction is in store. Bearish divergence, even before the earnings report, showed weakening strength as the RSI fell and the price double topped around the $420 region. MACD has crossed over issuing a 'sell' signal, and is extremely high, increasing the possibility for a big tumble. This is a weekly chart of Netflix, which gives the broader outlook for the coming months. There is a possibility Netflix rallies back towards the $400 region in the short term, but I highly doubt it will make a new high in the coming weeks. Exponential rallies always end poorly, as they show growth is unsustainable at that rate.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by pstowe
5
End Of Industrial Revolution Parabolic AdvanceIt appears that the end of exponential growth the economy has enjoyed since at least the Industrial Revolution is due to end. Price target after breakdown is set at 70%, although the window to hit is so wide (~30 years) that it is unimportant other than to indicate that a major bear trend is on the horizon. Luckily, downward movement should not begin until 2019 at the earliest so there is time for further analysis. Will continue to update with any major changes / supporting (and dissenting) evidence
M
by kharosss
Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlines So, there are many charts to be seen at the moment on tradingview, showing this latest longterm trendline, and how BTC will certainly bounce off it, giving us a low of around 4500. However, if we look at BTC historical data, we can see, that bitcoin already had 2 trendlines of this type, which both were broken. The first one starting in 2010 until 2011, the second on was a 2 year trendline from 2012 to 2014. I think the same will happen again. People just give too much credit to these longterm lines, and I think the longterm bitcoin growth is not a line in the log chart, but a square root function, meaning that the steepness of the longterm lines will get lower and lower. A more accurate indicator for finding the low is imho the weekly MA200 line, painted in solid red. This line will offer extremely solid support, just like it did in 2014-2015. BTC will probably rest there for a while in 2019, before it comes back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket.
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
Bitcoin: The problem with longterm trendlinesSo at the moment I see many charts that draw the longterm trendline from the last bullmarket, that started end of 2015, early 2016. By this trendline, we come to the conclusion that the low will be at around 4500, because that trendline is solid as rock, it cannot break, impossible. However, many people forget that we already had trendlines like this twice. The first when bitcoin was very young, starting from 2010, the second one starting from 2012 and reaching all the way to 2014. But the problem is: BOTH were broken. That is because I think the bitcoin growth doesn't follow one exponential trendline, it breaks the old ones, and adpots for new ones that are not so steep as the previous one. So I think this time it will be no different, the longterm trendline will break, panic will ensue because people give far too much credit to these longterm lines, a panic sell-off is almost certain. So I think we'll go below 4500. But then, BTC will find the bottom and come back with brutal strength for the next epic bullmarket :)
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
1
Amazon - In an exponential rally. Next target seen at 1,862It should be clear to everyone, that Amazon is in an exponential rise and they even ever ends well (just remember the last one we saw in Bitcoin). The indicators shows a negative divergence relative to the price movement indicating that this rally is loosing strength and the potential upside is becoming limited. The next possible target for wave 5/ of 5 is seen at 1,862, but exponential rallies has a way of exceeding even the most optimistic, so I wouldn't be overly surprised to see an extension closer to 2,177, before wave 5/ of 5 peaks. However, all warning lights has started flashing, so keep your stop tight.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by EWS
1
Back to the basics...again.My posts are going to continue to be really simple because I believe in fundamentals and I believe in the long term. My first chart shows how no change happens if we simply recover by the end of the year. The chart won't change much if we go into a full on downtrend and lose even more market cap as well. Some people will continue to hold and some people will continue to short-sell, but it's still of no consequence. The second chart shows just how much a newer high changes over all perspective. If we establish $25000 by years end you can see that what I call noise begins to minimize more and more. The third chart shows that in the long run that if the market continues to grow, all of this up and down from January to May will be nothing to even mention other than it was a historic year in the continuous evolution of cryptocurrencies. I stopped only half way into 2019 because the bottom line becomes more and more non-existent. Now the parabolic line that I've created should actually be considered part of a bell curve. If you believe that these new currencies are in the infant stage, then guess what, this bell curve is barely starting which means we have a long way to go up before we even consider it falling. A lot of people say that crypto won't be around or bitcoin won't be around in 100 years. So let's say that we are 8 years into a 50 year peak. That leaves us 42 year of growth before we actually start a decline. Even taking into account the slowing of growth at the end that leaves an easy 20 years of consistent exponential growth. 20 years at even 300% growth is maddening. On the other hand, if we are on a 20 year cycle and we are almost at the peak that mean we will see slow growth till 2020 and then we start our decline. Because we still haven't reached our final coin in mining of bitcoin I don't see it ending that quickly. As far as pre-mined coins go, they might be a great indicator as to what will happen after the last coin is mined. Hopefully failure isn't in the cards. Last of all, let's say that there ends up being a coin for every country in the world and by some miracle we have shifts in GDP and wealth gap so that all coins become equal. Very unlikely scenario I admit, but using comparative advantage and looking as to how with the right incentive, we might actually be able to pull this off, let's take a look at global GDP. Divide it by 100+ countries. This would give us a baseline of what we could see in crypto-growth for any given coin. I'm not going to attempt that calculation this post, because I'm sure it will be really controversial and a lot of people will criticize it, but I'm planting a seed for thought. Hope my wild ideas are reaching a few people in the end. Till next time.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
6 MAs (exponential optional)I just wanted a single application that would allow me to check/uncheck the MAs I wanted to see for various time frames. I've been using the 7 and 30 period for weekly observations of crypto and the 20,50,128 and 200 for other views such as the 20 day, 50 day, 128 day and 200 day MAs. This allows me to open the settings and uncheck what I don't want to see and vice versa. Stock is set to SMA but EMA can be activated by simply opening the settings and checking the box.
N
by Kick_Back_Time
Ethereum January 2019 Long Prediction – 2 Year Parallel ChannelHello everyone! Here is a crazy idea. Here I present a logarithmic chart of Etherum ( ETHUSD 0.65% ) with a 2-year parallel growth channel. This potentially suggests that by the end of the year we could see the price of ETH being between $5,000 and $60,000 USD. I am personally confident that the price will be nearly $5,000 and this chart supports that idea. Assuming that the total circulation supply of ETH reaches ~100,000,000 by the end of the year, $5,000 a share would result in a market capitalization of 500 billion USD. Not too ridiculous in my opinion. However, 6 trillion on the other hand (maximum channel goal), may be ridiculous. Now, I know this is fucking insane, but the exponential nature of the ETH blockchain (DApps, token genesis, etc.) suggests this channel is possible. Personal disclaimer: Don't take any of my published ideas as reality. Always make educated decisions before doing anything with your investments. Use my charts for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by copa1079
5
Bull Run is taking a breather price action @ 200EMA resistanceThe bulls need a breather after that exciting run and have been stopped at least temporsrily in their tracks when the 200 EMA(in orange) closed the gate on them....Now that the bulls have had a taste, their hunger is probably running wild and they may very well be able to burst through the 200EMA gate and just above it the 200 SMA wall as well when they retest it...won't be easy but I'd say after maybe a minor retrace they could very easily regain a second wind...therefore my advice is to not make any major moves at this time.... but if you're able buy the dips to the support line. If now that the price has both closed yesterday's candle at the 200day EMA and bounced down off of that same 200 day EMA(once again in orange) to start the new candle I'd say the odds are very likely that it could act as temporary resistance as the bulls take a breather. Buy the dips once we figure out where solid support is. (Most likely the T line(in yellow) This is only what I would do anyways, not financial advice of course...you do you and best of fortunes to you in all your trading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Trend analysis and momentum with EMA & MACDFor beginners like myself, understanding the basics. EMA - exponential moving average or simply weighted moving average (most recent first), a very good detailed explanation with examples www.investopedia.com MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence, details www.investopedia.com I am using EMA(9,50,100) EMA9, EMA50 and EMA100 simply means weighted moving averages over 9, 50 and 100 periods respectively with most recent prices having more weight-age. Notice EMA9 kisses the price closely and changes direction quickly to indicating if price is going up or down. Comparison with EMA50 & EMA100 gives a good idea of how current price is doing as compared to price averaged over longer periods. Also note that shorter periods change direction more quickly as compared to longer periods. MACD and EMA are good for day trading only. They must be used with other indicators if you want to be sure that a bull/bear trend will continue to hold. Other patterns like head and shoulder, inverted head and should, pivots etc. can be used to confirm if its a strong trend. MACD(12,26,9) - Traditionally trading was done over 6 days so 12 days is two weeks, 26 days a month hence the parameters. These two form the MACD line. Formula for MACD = MA(12) - MA(26) 9 is for signal line which is EMA of the MACD line over 9 periods. It is important to note that MACD is almost always used in conjunction with volume to avoid selling/buying too quickly. You will notice that MACD line changes in direction up/down is directly proportional to volume. So, lets calculate profit for this example first bear cross (SELL) marked in red. average price (open+high+low+closed) / 4 = 11,441 first bull cross (BUY) marked in green. average price (open+high+low+closed) / 4 = 8,892 people call this profit (but i think its just avoiding loss since you didn't make money on top of what you spent) = 11,441 - 8892 = 2549 second bear cross (SELL), average price = 8336 second bull cross (BUY), average price = 7297 Profit = 1038 Grand Profit = 2549 + 1038 = 3587USD per BTC
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sarfraz.ramay
How high can this thing go? Hint: Very high.It's funny to see the reaction of people, staring in total disbelief at the prices. Why? Because they do not think in exponential terms. The human brain is just used to think in linear terms, exponential rises take a lot getting used to. But bitcoin? It was rising exponentially for a while, and now it entered over-exponential territory. This means that in the logarithmic chart we don't have a line any more, but a parabola. That is why the time for a doubling of the price will get shorter and shorter. I drew the logarithmic trend channel and these are the possible reversal zones: 1.st at around 25K 2nd at around 75K 3rd at around 145K If the full move is done, we could see, and I now it sounds insane, 145K until the end of march 2018. I think 25K is the most realistic scenario, with about 60% probability. Timeframe: December-January 75K with 30% (timeframe: end of february), and 145K with 10%. It's just an estimate, but it's good to know these important resistance lines.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
7